Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)
Market Price (9/10/2026): $67.53 | Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)
Market Price (9/10/2026): $67.53Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Building Products
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 52x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 88x Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% Key risksLPX key risks include [1] high sensitivity to volatile pricing for its key commodity, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 42% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -60% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 52x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 88x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -14%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12% |
| Key risksLPX key risks include [1] high sensitivity to volatile pricing for its key commodity, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 9/1/2026
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) reported disappointing fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, missing analyst expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company announced its fiscal Q2 2026 results on August 5, 2026, reporting adjusted EPS of $0.40, significantly below the consensus estimate of $0.56, representing a $0.16 miss. Quarterly revenue also fell short, coming in at $664 million, a 12.1% year-over-year decrease, and missing the consensus estimate of $667.31 million. This earnings miss and revenue decline signaled weaker financial performance than anticipated by the market.
2. The company's Oriented Strand Board (OSB) segment experienced substantial weakness due to soft demand and lower prices, culminating in a production curtailment. OSB net sales plummeted 27% year-over-year to $182 million in fiscal Q2 2026. The decline in OSB prices and demand in North and South America were cited as the primary reasons for a $90 million year-over-year decrease in net sales and a $46 million drop in OSB Adjusted EBITDA. Furthermore, on September 1, 2026, Louisiana-Pacific announced an indefinite curtailment of OSB production at its Jasper facility, impacting approximately 150 employees, citing continued market oversupply and sustained softness in demand. Management also forecasted OSB Adjusted EBITDA to be negative for both fiscal Q3 and the full year 2026.
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Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) reported disappointing fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, missing analyst expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company announced its fiscal Q2 2026 results on August 5, 2026, reporting adjusted EPS of $0.40, significantly below the consensus estimate of $0.56, representing a $0.16 miss. Quarterly revenue also fell short, coming in at $664 million, a 12.1% year-over-year decrease, and missing the consensus estimate of $667.31 million. This earnings miss and revenue decline signaled weaker financial performance than anticipated by the market.
2. The company's Oriented Strand Board (OSB) segment experienced substantial weakness due to soft demand and lower prices, culminating in a production curtailment. OSB net sales plummeted 27% year-over-year to $182 million in fiscal Q2 2026. The decline in OSB prices and demand in North and South America were cited as the primary reasons for a $90 million year-over-year decrease in net sales and a $46 million drop in OSB Adjusted EBITDA. Furthermore, on September 1, 2026, Louisiana-Pacific announced an indefinite curtailment of OSB production at its Jasper facility, impacting approximately 150 employees, citing continued market oversupply and sustained softness in demand. Management also forecasted OSB Adjusted EBITDA to be negative for both fiscal Q3 and the full year 2026.
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Updated on 9/1/2026
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) reported disappointing fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, missing analyst expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company announced its fiscal Q2 2026 results on August 5, 2026, reporting adjusted EPS of $0.40, significantly below the consensus estimate of $0.56, representing a $0.16 miss. Quarterly revenue also fell short, coming in at $664 million, a 12.1% year-over-year decrease, and missing the consensus estimate of $667.31 million. This earnings miss and revenue decline signaled weaker financial performance than anticipated by the market.
2. The company's Oriented Strand Board (OSB) segment experienced substantial weakness due to soft demand and lower prices, culminating in a production curtailment. OSB net sales plummeted 27% year-over-year to $182 million in fiscal Q2 2026. The decline in OSB prices and demand in North and South America were cited as the primary reasons for a $90 million year-over-year decrease in net sales and a $46 million drop in OSB Adjusted EBITDA. Furthermore, on September 1, 2026, Louisiana-Pacific announced an indefinite curtailment of OSB production at its Jasper facility, impacting approximately 150 employees, citing continued market oversupply and sustained softness in demand. Management also forecasted OSB Adjusted EBITDA to be negative for both fiscal Q3 and the full year 2026.
3. Broader macroeconomic headwinds, particularly a challenging housing market and elevated mortgage rates, suppressed demand for building materials. The housing market was characterized as "stuck in neutral" during fiscal Q2 2026, with single-family housing starts declining approximately 7% on a trailing 12-month basis. Elevated mortgage rates, such as the average 30-year rate of 6.65% for the week ending August 24, 2026, continued to impact housing affordability and buyer activity. This resulted in softening demand across the residential construction sector, directly affecting sales volumes for building product manufacturers like Louisiana-Pacific.
Show less
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) stock has lost about 10% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) reported disappointing fiscal Q2 2026 earnings, missing analyst expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company announced its fiscal Q2 2026 results on August 5, 2026, reporting adjusted EPS of $0.40, significantly below the consensus estimate of $0.56, representing a $0.16 miss. Quarterly revenue also fell short, coming in at $664 million, a 12.1% year-over-year decrease, and missing the consensus estimate of $667.31 million. This earnings miss and revenue decline signaled weaker financial performance than anticipated by the market.
2. The company's Oriented Strand Board (OSB) segment experienced substantial weakness due to soft demand and lower prices, culminating in a production curtailment. OSB net sales plummeted 27% year-over-year to $182 million in fiscal Q2 2026. The decline in OSB prices and demand in North and South America were cited as the primary reasons for a $90 million year-over-year decrease in net sales and a $46 million drop in OSB Adjusted EBITDA. Furthermore, on September 1, 2026, Louisiana-Pacific announced an indefinite curtailment of OSB production at its Jasper facility, impacting approximately 150 employees, citing continued market oversupply and sustained softness in demand. Management also forecasted OSB Adjusted EBITDA to be negative for both fiscal Q3 and the full year 2026.
3. Broader macroeconomic headwinds, particularly a challenging housing market and elevated mortgage rates, suppressed demand for building materials. The housing market was characterized as "stuck in neutral" during fiscal Q2 2026, with single-family housing starts declining approximately 7% on a trailing 12-month basis. Elevated mortgage rates, such as the average 30-year rate of 6.65% for the week ending August 24, 2026, continued to impact housing affordability and buyer activity. This resulted in softening demand across the residential construction sector, directly affecting sales volumes for building product manufacturers like Louisiana-Pacific.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.2% change in LPX stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -31.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 76.07 | 67.52 | -11.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,559 | 2,468 | -3.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.2% | 2.2% | -31.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 64.9 | 87.5 | 34.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 70 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.2% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LPX | -11.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.8% | 28.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | -0.8% | 37.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.7% change in LPX stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -59.4% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 84.04 | 67.52 | -19.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,709 | 2,468 | -8.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.4% | 2.2% | -59.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 40.3 | 87.5 | 117.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 70 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LPX | -19.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.4% | 46.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | -2.7% | 50.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -27.9% change in LPX stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/9/2026 was primarily driven by a -78.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 93.63 | 67.52 | -27.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,881 | 2,468 | -14.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.3% | 2.2% | -78.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.1 | 87.5 | 296.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 70 | 70 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -27.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LPX | -27.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.2% | 35.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 14.2% | 47.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 12.5% change in LPX stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/9/2026 was primarily driven by a 343.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9092026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 60.03 | 67.52 | 12.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,752 | 2,468 | -10.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.0% | 2.2% | -72.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.7 | 87.5 | 343.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 72 | 70 | 2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 12.5% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/9/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LPX | 12.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.3% | 43.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 65.3% | 49.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LPX Return | 113% | -23% | 22% | 48% | -21% | -16% | 95% |
| Peers Return | 64% | -16% | 72% | -8% | -25% | -6% | 54% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LPX Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 33% | 44% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 47% | 57% | 53% | 35% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LPX Max Drawdown | -30% | -38% | -36% | -14% | -36% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -25% | -34% | -24% | -24% | -37% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WY, WFG, BCC, UFPI, BLDR. See LPX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LPX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -19.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 127 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 129 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -37.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -58.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 138 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -18.3% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 55 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Louisiana-Pacific's stock fell -19.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 24.7% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | LPX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 129 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.0% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 78 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -37.3% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 289 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -58.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 141.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 138 days | 140 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -43.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.9% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 87 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.1% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 771 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -91.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1075.1% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1281 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Louisiana-Pacific's stock fell -19.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 24.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) is a prominent manufacturer and marketer of building products, primarily catering to the new home construction, repair and remodeling, and outdoor structure markets. The company provides a wide array of engineered wood products essential for various stages of building, from structural components to exterior finishes, playing a key role in modern construction practices.
The company operates through four main segments: Siding, Oriented Strand Board (OSB), Engineered Wood Products (EWP), and South America. Its Siding segment offers well-known brands like LP SmartSide and LP BuilderSeries, providing durable engineered wood siding and trim products. The OSB segment manufactures critical structural panels, including LP TechShield radiant barriers and LP Legacy sub-flooring. The EWP segment specializes in high-performance components such as laminated veneer lumber and LP SolidStart I-joists, which are widely used in residential and commercial floorings, roofing systems, and other structural applications. The South America segment focuses on manufacturing and distributing OSB and siding products specifically tailored for that region's construction needs, including supporting the transition to wood frame construction.
Louisiana-Pacific sells its diverse product portfolio globally, serving key markets across North America, South America, Asia, Australia, and Europe. Its primary customers include a broad spectrum of businesses such as retailers, wholesalers, homebuilding companies, and various industrial businesses, ensuring its materials are utilized in a wide range of construction and remodeling projects worldwide.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Louisiana-Pacific (LPX):
- The Intel of the housing industry, providing essential engineered components like siding, sub-flooring, and structural beams that homes are built with.
- Magna International for homebuilding, supplying a broad range of specialized engineered wood products and building materials to construction companies.
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- LP SmartSide Siding and Trim: Engineered wood siding, trim, soffit, and fascia products, including pre-finished options.
- Oriented Strand Board (OSB) Structural Panels: Basic OSB panels used for sheathing, sub-flooring, and general construction applications.
- Specialized OSB Products: This category includes advanced OSB panels like LP TechShield (radiant barriers), LP WeatherLogic (air and water barriers), and LP FlameBlock (fire-rated sheathing).
- LP SolidStart I-Joists: Engineered wood I-joists primarily used in residential and commercial flooring and roofing systems.
- Laminated Veneer Lumber (LVL): Engineered wood products often used as beams and headers in structural applications.
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Based on the provided background, Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) sells its products primarily to other businesses rather than directly to individuals. While specific company names of its major customers are not provided in the background description, the company primarily sells to the following types of businesses:
- Retailers
- Wholesalers
- Homebuilding businesses
- Industrial businesses
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Brad Southern, Chief Executive Officer
Brad Southern has served as Chief Executive Officer of Louisiana-Pacific since July 2017 and Chairperson of the Board since May 2020. He joined LP in 1999 and has held various leadership roles within the company, including Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, Executive Vice President and General Manager of OSB, Senior Vice President of Siding, and Vice President of Specialty Operations. Before joining Louisiana-Pacific, Mr. Southern spent 15 years at MacMillan Bloedel, where he began his career as a forester and held various positions in forestry, strategic planning, finance, accounting, and plant management. He holds a Bachelor of Science and a Master of Science in Forest Resources from the University of Georgia.
Alan Haughie, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Alan Haughie was named Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Louisiana-Pacific in January 2019. Prior to joining LP, he served as Senior Vice President and CFO of ServiceMaster Global Holdings Inc. from 2013 to 2017, where he played a key role in the company's initial public offering and a $2.4 billion debt refinancing. Before ServiceMaster, Mr. Haughie spent 19 years at Federal-Mogul Corp., a global automotive components supplier, where his roles included Senior Vice President and CFO, Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer, and Director of Financial Planning and Analysis. He is a chartered accountant and holds a Bachelor of Science with Honors in Mathematics from the University of Manchester.
Jason Ringblom, President
Jason Ringblom was appointed President in April 2025, having a tenure of less than a year as of March 2026. Prior to this, he served as Executive Vice President and General Manager of the OSB business, a role he took on in January 2017 after serving as Vice President of OSB Sales and Marketing.
Tony Hamill, Senior Vice President, Chief Operating Officer
Tony Hamill holds the position of Senior Vice President, Chief Operating Officer at Louisiana-Pacific.
Robin Everhart, SVP, CHRO and Transformation Officer
Robin Everhart serves as the Senior Vice President, Chief Human Resources Officer and Transformation Officer for Louisiana-Pacific.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) primarily stem from the cyclical nature of its core markets, volatility in commodity pricing, and exposure to fluctuating interest rates.
- Cyclicality and Volatility of the Housing and Construction Markets: Louisiana-Pacific's business is heavily dependent on the health of new home construction, repair and remodeling, and outdoor structure markets. These sectors are highly sensitive to broader economic conditions, including interest rates and consumer confidence. A downturn in housing starts or a decline in remodeling activity could significantly reduce demand for the company's building products, adversely affecting its financial performance.
- Fluctuations in Raw Material Costs and Commodity Product Pricing: The company's profitability is susceptible to increases in the costs of raw materials, such as wood fiber and resins, and energy prices. Additionally, Louisiana-Pacific has a significant concentration in Oriented Strand Board (OSB), which is a commodity product. Its prices are influenced by external factors like industry capacity and supply-demand trends. Fluctuations in OSB prices directly impact the company's revenue and profitability.
- Exposure to Rising Interest Rates: Louisiana-Pacific is exposed to interest rate volatility because borrowings under its Amended Credit Facility are priced on variable benchmarks. As market rates or credit spreads rise, the company's interest expense could materially increase, putting pressure on its cash flows, profitability, and debt covenants.
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Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (LPX) operates in the building products industry, manufacturing and marketing a range of products primarily for new home construction, repair, remodeling, and outdoor structure markets. The addressable markets for its main products across North and South America are substantial.
North America
- Siding: The North American siding market was approximately USD 27.93 billion in 2024. This market includes various materials, with vinyl and fiber cement being prominent. Louisiana-Pacific offers engineered wood siding products like LP SmartSide.
- Oriented Strand Board (OSB): The North American Oriented Strand Board (OSB) market size was valued at approximately USD 9.81 billion in 2024. North America is a significant player in the global OSB market, driven by construction activities and demand for cost-effective building materials. The market is projected to reach US$19.92 billion by 2029.
- Engineered Wood Products (EWP): The broader North American engineered wood market was valued at more than USD 66 billion in 2023. This category includes various products like laminated veneer lumber (LVL) and I-joists. North America holds a significant share of the global engineered wood market.
- I-joists (a sub-segment of EWP): The North American I-joist market was estimated to be around USD 2.08 billion in 2025. North America is expected to dominate the I-joist market, driven by a robust construction industry and demand for efficient structural solutions.
South America
- Oriented Strand Board (OSB): The Latin American Oriented Strand Board (OSB) market was valued at approximately USD 1.23 billion in 2024. This market is projected to grow due to increasing demand in the region.
- Siding: The Latin American siding market generated an estimated revenue of approximately USD 2.79 billion in 2024.
- Engineered Wood Products: The South America Engineered Wood market is anticipated to reach a market size of more than USD 29 billion by 2029. This growth is driven by urbanization and increased construction activities, with a growing emphasis on sustainable and eco-friendly building materials. The Latin America timber construction market, which includes engineered wood, generated a revenue of USD 1.35 billion in 2024.
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Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies, primarily focusing on its Siding segment and an anticipated recovery in the broader housing market.
Here are the 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth:
- Continued Growth and Market Share Expansion of the Siding Segment, particularly LP SmartSide ExpertFinish products: The Siding segment consistently performs as LPX's core long-term growth engine, with products like ExpertFinish experiencing significant volume increases, such as a 35% jump in Q4 2025. This growth is anticipated to be fueled by ongoing market share gains and strategic initiatives to enhance the premium product mix.
- Strategic Pricing and Premium Product Mix in Siding: LPX has demonstrated pricing power within its Siding segment, contributing to both revenue growth and margin expansion. The focus on higher-value products, such as ExpertFinish, allows the company to realize better net selling prices, which is a key component of its Siding growth strategy.
- Expansion of Siding Production Capacity: To meet the growing demand for its SmartSide and ExpertFinish products, Louisiana-Pacific is investing in capacity expansions, including plans for new facilities and enhancements to existing ones. These strategic capital expenditures are aimed at increasing production volumes and supporting market penetration, particularly in regions like the Northeastern U.S.
- Recovery and Normalization of the Housing Market: Although facing near-term challenges with decelerating housing starts and elevated channel inventories in early 2026, LPX anticipates a rebound in overall housing activity and repair and remodel demand. A normalization and improvement in these key demand indicators are expected to positively impact sales volumes across the company's building product portfolio.
- Growth in Value-Added Oriented Strand Board (OSB) Products: Despite volatility in the commodity OSB market, LPX is focused on driving growth in its differentiated, value-added OSB products. Offerings like LP FlameBlock fire-rated sheathing and LP Legacy premium sub-flooring provide enhanced performance, which can contribute to more stable revenue streams and potentially higher margins within the OSB segment.
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Share Repurchases
- Louisiana-Pacific returned $139 million to shareholders in 2025.
- The company repurchased $61 million of its common stock in 2025, with $177 million remaining under the existing share repurchase authorization.
- A share buyback plan announced on May 8, 2024, resulted in the repurchase of 673,625 shares for $73.13 million.
Share Issuance
- The number of common shares outstanding declined by 1.41% in 2025 compared to 2024, reaching 70 million shares as of December 31, 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In August 2022, Louisiana-Pacific sold its Engineered Wood Products (EWP) segment assets for $217 million in gross cash proceeds.
- In March 2022, the company sold its 50% equity interest in two I-joist joint ventures for $59 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures totaled $291 million in 2025.
- Louisiana-Pacific anticipates investing approximately $400 million in capital expenditures in 2026, evenly split between strategic growth and sustaining maintenance projects.
- Strategic investments in capital expenditures are primarily focused on the Siding segment, including siding conversion and growth initiatives, such as a new 70-million-foot Siding line in Green Bay expected to come online in early Q2 2026.
Peer Outperformance in Building Products
LPX has outperformed 50% of its 32 Building Products peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it is BCC. Building Products ranks 12th of 23 industries in Industrials by median 5Y return. The sector’s gains have largely come from elsewhere.
Share of Building Products constituents that LPX has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
28%
of 36 industry peers · -28.3% return
3Y
60%
of 35 industry peers · 17.2% return
5Y
50%
of 32 industry peers · 14.8% return
Building Products peers with revenue growth within 4pp of LPX's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LPX | Louisiana-Pacific | -3.2% | 87.5x | -28.3% | 17.2% | 14.8% | — |
| BCC | Boise Cascade | -3.3% | 25.3x | -9.9% | -17.9% | 75.9% | +61pp |
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Industrials sector, ranked by 5Y. Building Products is LPX's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 9.5% | 107.0% | 192.2% | CDNL 2559% · FIX 2199% · STRL 2166% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 69.9% | 64.6% | 169.5% | HOS 47900% · MATX 179% · KEX 170% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 13.6% | 61.0% | 119.0% | CAT 334% · ALSN 283% · WAB 223% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 55 | -1.8% | 57.9% | 72.0% | ATI 1092% · FTAI 919% · HWM 656% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -19.0% | 37.7% | 61.1% | UBER 78% · CAR 61% · LYFT -70% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 33.8% | 68.4% | 45.3% | FSTR 143% · CSX 67% · UNP 53% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 8.6% | 47.5% | 41.3% | CRS 1436% · PSIX 993% · EROC 628% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 4.8% | 36.0% | 38.5% | DXPE 576% · AIT 294% · WCC 225% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 39.5% | 4.9% | 34.4% | XPO 260% · R 254% · CVLG 233% |
| Diversified Support Services | 33 | 9.7% | 27.9% | 28.7% | LIME 3864% · TH 397% · WLFC 376% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 41 | 18.6% | 53.6% | 20.0% | POWL 2242% · BE 1273% · VRT 977% |
| Building Products ← | 33 | -9.9% | 1.2% | 14.8% | LMB 587% · GFF 409% · PPIH 300% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | 18.8% | 3.8% | -4.3% | BLBD 225% · DE 99% · GENC 64% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 9.4% | 12.2% | -4.8% | RCMT 567% · CSW 134% · CSL 79% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -9.3% | 26.0% | -6.0% | CECO 1038% · ADUR 398% · NVRI 373% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -9.8% | -22.9% | -10.4% | HURN 205% · CRAI 94% · GRNQ 85% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -33.1% | -15.1% | -26.2% | EXLS 43% · BR 9% · G -26% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 1.4% | -2.1% | -28.0% | LTM 3349% · UAL 142% · SKYW 122% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 10.8% | 27.7% | -30.6% | PBI 199% · TILE 147% · HNI 56% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -9.2% | -24.0% | -39.3% | CHRW 92% · FDX 65% · EXPD 59% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -35.5% | 4.8% | -39.4% | CIX 142% · MG 118% · NL 65% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 21 | 1.3% | -22.7% | -41.6% | BBSI 80% · ADP 47% · KFY 23% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -69.4% | -78.8% | -57.5% | JOBY -31% · ASLE -57% · UP -100% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 68.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.0 |
| Rev LTM | 6,346 |
| Op Inc LTM | 237 |
| FCF LTM | 41 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 196 |
| CFO LTM | 385 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 554 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -7.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -6.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | -3.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -59.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -35.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.0 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 15.9 |
| P/EBIT | 15.3 |
| P/E | 29.9 |
| P/CFO | 9.3 |
| Total Yield | 4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -13.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -16.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -20.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -33.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -91.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siding | 1,689 | 1,558 | 1,328 | 1,469 | 1,170 |
| Oriented Strand Board (OSB) | 832 | 1,184 | 1,026 | 2,062 | 2,387 |
| Other revenues | 187 | 199 | 227 | ||
| Louisiana-Pacific South America (LPSA) | 241 | 265 | |||
| Other | 81 | 95 | |||
| Intersegment Sales | -3 | ||||
| Total | 2,708 | 2,941 | 2,581 | 3,853 | 3,914 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siding | 444 | 390 | 187 | 126 | 93 |
| Oriented Strand Board (OSB) | 7 | 298 | 426 | 186 | |
| Product-line discontinuance charges | -2 | ||||
| Other operating credits and charges, net | -6 | -8 | -17 | ||
| Other non-operating (expense) income | -15 | -5 | |||
| Stock-based compensation expense | -30 | -20 | |||
| Loss on impairment | -44 | -8 | |||
| Depreciation and amortization | -145 | -126 | |||
| Louisiana-Pacific South America (LPSA) | 42 | 24 | 17 | 10 | |
| Other | -42 | -3 | -2 | -3 | |
| Engineered Wood Products (EWP) | 15 | -6 | |||
| Gain (loss) on sales of and impairments of long-lived assets | -7 | 8 | |||
| General corporate and other expense, net | -110 | -104 | |||
| Equity in income of unconsolidated affiliates | -5 | ||||
| Engineered Wood Products | -13 | ||||
| OSB | -46 | ||||
| intersegment sales | -104 | ||||
| Total | 209 | 529 | 523 | 204 | -63 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siding | 1,419 | 1,307 | 1,291 | 1,045 | 705 |
| Other | 677 | 696 | 11 | 74 | 86 |
| Oriented Strand Board (OSB) | 531 | 553 | 526 | 491 | 521 |
| Louisiana-Pacific South America (LPSA) | 165 | 151 | 118 | ||
| Non-segment related | 444 | 589 | 643 | ||
| Engineered Wood Products (EWP) | 121 | ||||
| Total | 2,627 | 2,556 | 2,437 | 2,350 | 2,194 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $67.52 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/04/1982 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -30.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $73.11 | $77.49 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -7.6% | -12.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 42.6% | 41.4% |
| Downside Capture | 158.42 | 136.17 |
| Upside Capture | 95.88 | 70.57 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 32.8% | 35.7% |
LPX Betas & Captures as of 8/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.06 | 1.24 | 0.91 | 1.47 | 1.18 | 1.08 |
| Up Beta | 1.94 | -0.12 | 0.59 | 1.84 | 1.75 | 1.16 |
| Down Beta | 0.82 | 1.60 | 1.23 | 1.31 | 1.05 | 0.86 |
| Up Capture | 167% | 112% | 67% | 101% | 64% | 115% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 18 | 27 | 56 | 116 | 357 |
| Down Capture | 327% | 230% | 112% | 157% | 121% | 105% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 24 | 36 | 70 | 132 | 390 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LPX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LPX | -31.0% | 41.5% | -0.79 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.8% | 17.2% | 0.64 | 47.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.6% | 12.8% | 1.06 | 35.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.6% | 29.2% | 0.64 | 22.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.3% | 20.4% | 1.76 | -28.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.3% | 13.6% | 0.27 | 37.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -29.8% | 43.8% | -0.68 | 7.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LPX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LPX | 2.7% | 40.1% | 0.17 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.1% | 17.6% | 0.52 | 57.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 53.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.9% | 18.8% | 0.82 | 12.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.1% | 19.5% | 0.44 | 3.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.2% | 18.9% | -0.04 | 50.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 10.8% | 52.6% | 0.39 | 23.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LPX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LPX | 14.9% | 41.1% | 0.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.2% | 20.1% | 0.58 | 62.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.1% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 58.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.3% | 0.62 | 10.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 17.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 55.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.6% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 17.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/8/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | 0.7% | -1.7% | -10.7% |
| 5/6/2026 | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| 2/17/2026 | -5.1% | -13.1% | -17.4% |
| 11/5/2025 | -8.4% | -8.9% | -0.9% |
| 8/6/2025 | -0.8% | 10.2% | 6.5% |
| 5/6/2025 | -0.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| 2/19/2025 | -0.6% | -1.5% | -7.7% |
| 11/5/2024 | -0.3% | 3.9% | 10.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 15 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 4.2% | 10.4% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -5.3% | -7.0% |
| Max Positive | 8.3% | 10.2% | 24.5% |
| Max Negative | -12.5% | -13.1% | -17.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/5/2026 | 0.7% | -1.7% | -10.7% |
| 5/6/2026 | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| 2/17/2026 | -5.1% | -13.1% | -17.4% |
| 11/5/2025 | -8.4% | -8.9% | -0.9% |
| 8/6/2025 | -0.8% | 10.2% | 6.5% |
| 5/6/2025 | -0.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| 2/19/2025 | -0.6% | -1.5% | -7.7% |
| 11/5/2024 | -0.3% | 3.9% | 10.8% |
| 8/7/2024 | 0.9% | -0.9% | -2.6% |
| 5/8/2024 | -1.3% | 4.4% | 2.4% |
| 2/14/2024 | -0.1% | 0.8% | 12.3% |
| 11/1/2023 | 5.8% | 9.1% | 17.1% |
| 8/2/2023 | -2.0% | -5.3% | -7.0% |
| 5/3/2023 | -2.5% | 2.6% | -1.4% |
| 2/21/2023 | -12.5% | -11.0% | -12.3% |
| 8/9/2022 | -0.1% | 6.4% | -6.5% |
| 5/3/2022 | 8.3% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| 2/22/2022 | -1.6% | 4.4% | -0.8% |
| 11/2/2021 | 4.6% | 1.7% | 10.0% |
| 8/3/2021 | 0.0% | 4.9% | 14.1% |
| 5/4/2021 | -3.2% | -2.6% | -9.7% |
| 2/16/2021 | 0.7% | 9.2% | 24.5% |
| 11/3/2020 | -1.8% | -5.6% | 13.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 15 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 4.2% | 10.4% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -5.3% | -7.0% |
| Max Positive | 8.3% | 10.2% | 24.5% |
| Max Negative | -12.5% | -13.1% | -17.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 08/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 05/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/17/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/05/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/14/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/09/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/22/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/18/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/04/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/13/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/05/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 8/6/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 8/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Siding Net Sales Year-Over-Year Growth | Reported | 5.0% | ||||||
| Q3 2026 Siding Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 110.00 Mil | 115.00 Mil | |||||
| Q3 2026 OSB Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | -45.00 Mil | ||||||
| Q3 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 50.00 Mil | 55.00 Mil | |||||
| 2026 Siding Net Sales Year-Over-Year Growth | Reported | 1.65E11% | -1.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: -2.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Siding Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 410.00 Mil | 417.50 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 417.50 Mil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 OSB Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | -120.00 Mil | 2 | Lowered | Guidance: -40.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 255.00 Mil | 262.50 Mil | -25.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 352.50 Mil for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 320.00 Mil | -18.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 390.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Siding Net Sales Year-Over-Year Growth | Reported | -4.0% | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Siding Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 115.00 Mil | 117.50 Mil | 120.00 Mil | ||||
| Q2 2026 OSB Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | -10.00 Mil | ||||||
| Q2 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 100.00 Mil | 102.50 Mil | 105.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Siding Net Sales Year-Over-Year Growth | Reported | -2.0% | -4.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Siding Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 410.00 Mil | 417.50 Mil | 425.00 Mil | -7.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 450.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 OSB Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | -40.00 Mil | ||||||
| 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 345.00 Mil | 352.50 Mil | 360.00 Mil | -18.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 430.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 390.00 Mil | -2.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 400.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/17/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Siding Net Sales | Reported | 350.00 Mil | 352.50 Mil | 355.00 Mil | ||||
| Q1 2026 Siding Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 80.00 Mil | 82.50 Mil | 85.00 Mil | 0.6% | Higher New | Actual: 82.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 OSB Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | -30.00 Mil | -27.50 Mil | -25.00 Mil | -38.9% | Higher New | Actual: -45.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| Q1 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 50.00 Mil | 56.2% | Higher New | Actual: 32.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |||
| 2026 Siding Net Sales | Reported | 1.70 Bil | 1.2% | Higher New | Actual: 1.68 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Siding Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 450.00 Mil | 4.7% | Higher New | Actual: 430.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 430.00 Mil | 2.4% | Higher New | Actual: 420.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 400.00 Mil | 27.0% | Higher New | Actual: 315.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/5/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Siding Net Sales Year-Over-Year Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 0 | Same New | Actual: 3.0% for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Siding Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 82.00 Mil | -25.5% | Lower New | Actual: 110.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 OSB Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | -45.00 Mil | 0 | Same New | Actual: -45.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
| Q4 2025 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 32.00 Mil | -50.8% | Lower New | Actual: 65.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |||
| 2025 Siding Net Sales Year-Over-Year Growth | Reported | 8.0% | -1.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 9.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Siding Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 430.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 430.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 OSB Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 0 | -1 | Raised | Guidance: -25.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA | Reported | 420.00 Mil | 3.7% | Raised | Guidance: 405.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures | Reported | 315.00 Mil | -10.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 350.00 Mil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures - Strategic Growth | Reported | 1.25E10% | ||||||
| 2025 Capital Expenditures - Sustaining Maintenance | Reported | 190.00 Mil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 9/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruce, Lizanne M | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 78.21 | 1,141 | 89,238 | 1,399,568 | Form | |
| 2 | Bruce, Lizanne M | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 78.59 | 1,300 | 102,167 | 1,348,604 | Form | |
| 3 | Grasberger, F Nicholas Iii | Direct | Buy | 2232026 | 85.49 | 20,000 | 1,709,800 | 3,330,177 | Form | |
| 4 | Southern, William Bradley | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 87.85 | 14,166 | 1,244,430 | 39,315,840 | Form |
| 5 | Southern, William Bradley | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 89.29 | 14,166 | 1,264,888 | 41,227,067 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruce, Lizanne M | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 78.21 | 1,141 | 89,238 | 1,399,568 | Form | |
| 2 | Bruce, Lizanne M | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 78.59 | 1,300 | 102,167 | 1,348,604 | Form | |
| 3 | Grasberger, F Nicholas Iii | Direct | Buy | 2232026 | 85.49 | 20,000 | 1,709,800 | 3,330,177 | Form | |
| 4 | Southern, William Bradley | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 87.85 | 14,166 | 1,244,430 | 39,315,840 | Form |
| 5 | Southern, William Bradley | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 89.29 | 14,166 | 1,264,888 | 41,227,067 | Form |
| 6 | Southern, William Bradley | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2042026 | 88.19 | 21,252 | 1,874,273 | 40,646,564 | Form |
| 7 | Southern, William Bradley | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 2042026 | 85.16 | 7,080 | 602,933 | 41,058,617 | Form |
| 8 | Southern, William Bradley | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 93.08 | 14,166 | 1,318,506 | 45,533,883 | Form |
| 9 | Southern, William Bradley | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 91.66 | 55,346 | 5,073,139 | 46,141,037 | Form |
| 10 | Southern, William Bradley | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 85.38 | 1,318 | 112,537 | 47,694,877 | Form |
| 11 | Southern, William Bradley | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 86.25 | 42,514 | 3,666,832 | 48,292,065 | Form |
| 12 | MacAdam, Stephen E | Direct | Buy | 11122025 | 78.06 | 3,200 | 249,792 | 3,212,091 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 10, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crow's Nest Holdings LP | $41.5 Mil | 9.7% | 11 | TRIM -25.0% | 13F |
| 59 North Capital Management, LP | $237.4 Mil | 7.1% | 17 | TRIM -7.7% | 13F |
| Southernsun Asset Management, LLC | $35.3 Mil | 5.1% | 31 | ADD +6.3% | 13F |
| Eminence Capital, LP | $184.3 Mil | 4.2% | 33 | TRIM -37.4% | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $80.9 Mil | 2.6% | 44 | ADD +88.9% | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $45.3 Mil | 2.2% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $29.5 Mil | 1.9% | 17 | TRIM -55.0% | 13F |
| Parsifal Capital Management, LP | $6.7 Mil | 0.9% | 17 | TRIM -49.0% | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $9.7 Mil | 0.5% | 49 | TRIM -70.2% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alua Capital Management LP | $46.1 Mil | 3.4% | 17 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Scopia Capital Management LP | $16.2 Mil | 3.4% | 27 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $9.7 Mil | 0.5% | 49 | TRIM -70.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $29.5 Mil | 1.9% | 17 | TRIM -55.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Parsifal Capital Management, LP | $6.7 Mil | 0.9% | 17 | TRIM -49.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Eminence Capital, LP | $184.3 Mil | 4.2% | 33 | TRIM -37.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Crow's Nest Holdings LP | $41.5 Mil | 9.7% | 11 | TRIM -25.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| 59 North Capital Management, LP | $237.4 Mil | 7.1% | 17 | TRIM -7.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 North Capital Management, LP | $237.4 Mil | 7.1% | 17 | TRIM -7.7% | 13F |
| Eminence Capital, LP | $184.3 Mil | 4.2% | 33 | TRIM -37.4% | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $80.9 Mil | 2.6% | 44 | ADD +88.9% | 13F |
| Avantyr Capital Partners, LP | $45.3 Mil | 2.2% | 22 | New | 13F |
| Crow's Nest Holdings LP | $41.5 Mil | 9.7% | 11 | TRIM -25.0% | 13F |
| Southernsun Asset Management, LLC | $35.3 Mil | 5.1% | 31 | ADD +6.3% | 13F |
| Fernbridge Capital Management LP | $29.5 Mil | 1.9% | 17 | TRIM -55.0% | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $9.7 Mil | 0.5% | 49 | TRIM -70.2% | 13F |
| Parsifal Capital Management, LP | $6.7 Mil | 0.9% | 17 | TRIM -49.0% | 13F |
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