Paychex (PAYX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $112.87 | Market Cap: $40.7 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Paychex (PAYX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $112.87Market Cap: $40.7 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PAYX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets.
TD Cowen lowered its price target for Paychex (PAYX) from $126.00 to $114.00 on December 1, 2025, maintaining a "hold" rating due to concerns about the company's guidance and broader labor market challenges. UBS Group also reduced its price objective from $140.00 to $132.00 in a research report on October 2, 2025, setting a "neutral" rating. The consensus rating among Wall Street analysts is to "Reduce" PAYX shares, with an average target price of $139.07 and a lowest target of $114.00.
2. Broader Concerns in the Human Capital Management (HCM) Sector and Labor Market.
Analysts expressed ongoing concerns regarding labor market challenges impacting the human capital management sector, which contributes to skepticism about Paychex's fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PAYX Return | 13% | 50% | -13% | 6% | 21% | -19% | 55% |
| Peers Return | 40% | -13% | -24% | 44% | -7% | 20% | 49% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PAYX Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 42% | 42% | 75% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 54% | 48% | 60% | 48% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PAYX Max Drawdown | -40% | -7% | -19% | -8% | -2% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -36% | -34% | -7% | -23% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADP, BR, GPN, STNE, ELCG. See PAYX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PAYX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 537 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -55.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2062 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ADP, BR, GPN, STNE, ELCG
In The Past
Paychex's stock fell -25.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2022. A -25.4% loss requires a 34.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Paychex Stock Hits Key Support - Buying Opportunity? | Actionable | ||
| How Low Can Paychex Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| null | |||
| Better Bet Than PAYX Stock: Pay Less Than Paychex To Get More From GOOGL, UNH | |||
| Better Bet Than PAYX Stock: Pay Less Than Paychex To Get More From WM, GD | |||
| PAYX Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Paychex Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 38.8% in 2025 and 14.6% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
| Paychex (PAYX) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Paychex (PAYX) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Paychex (PAYX) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | November 18th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | November 1st, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | September 25th, 2025 | ||
| PAYX At Price Support Zone, Right Time To Buy? | August 22nd, 2025 | ||
| Buy The Dip As Paychex Drops 10%? | June 27th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PAYX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | PAYX | Paychex | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.1% | -1.1% | -3.1% |
| 12312022 | PAYX | Paychex | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.7% | 6.2% | -8.2% |
| 03312020 | PAYX | Paychex | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 28.2% | 61.0% | -5.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | PAYX | Paychex | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.1% | -1.1% | -3.1% |
| 12312022 | PAYX | Paychex | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.7% | 6.2% | -8.2% |
| 03312020 | PAYX | Paychex | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 28.2% | 61.0% | -5.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Paychex
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Growth & Margins
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Valuation
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Returns
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Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 9302025 | 10-Q 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 7112025 | 10-K 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 3262025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 12192024 | 10-Q 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10012024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 7112024 | 10-K 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 4022024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 12212023 | 10-Q 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 9282023 | 10-Q 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 7142023 | 10-K 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 3302023 | 10-Q 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 12222022 | 10-Q 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 9292022 | 10-Q 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 7152022 | 10-K 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 3312022 | 10-Q 2/28/2022 |
| 11302021 | 12222021 | 10-Q 11/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
