Tearsheet

Paychex (PAYX)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $112.87 | Market Cap: $40.7 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services

Paychex (PAYX)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $112.87
Market Cap: $40.7 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PAYX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Analyst Downgrades and Reduced Price Targets.

TD Cowen lowered its price target for Paychex (PAYX) from $126.00 to $114.00 on December 1, 2025, maintaining a "hold" rating due to concerns about the company's guidance and broader labor market challenges. UBS Group also reduced its price objective from $140.00 to $132.00 in a research report on October 2, 2025, setting a "neutral" rating. The consensus rating among Wall Street analysts is to "Reduce" PAYX shares, with an average target price of $139.07 and a lowest target of $114.00.

2. Broader Concerns in the Human Capital Management (HCM) Sector and Labor Market.

Analysts expressed ongoing concerns regarding labor market challenges impacting the human capital management sector, which contributes to skepticism about Paychex's fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PAYX Return13%50%-13%6%21%-19%55%
Peers Return40%-13%-24%44%-7%20%49%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PAYX Win Rate75%67%42%42%75%40% 
Peers Win Rate67%54%48%60%48%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PAYX Max Drawdown-40%-7%-19%-8%-2%-20% 
Peers Max Drawdown-40%-36%-34%-7%-23%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADP, BR, GPN, STNE, ELCG. See PAYX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPAYXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-25.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven34.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven537 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-44.2%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven79.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven231 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-18.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven22.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven51 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-55.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven126.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2062 days1480 days

Compare to ADP, BR, GPN, STNE, ELCG


In The Past

Paychex's stock fell -25.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2022. A -25.4% loss requires a 34.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Paychex (PAYX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PAYX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
PAYX_11072025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11072025PAYXPaychexMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.1%-1.1%-3.1%
PAYX_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022PAYXPaychexMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.7%6.2%-8.2%
PAYX_3312020_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03312020PAYXPaychexMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
28.2%61.0%-5.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
PAYX_11072025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11072025PAYXPaychexMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.1%-1.1%-3.1%
PAYX_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022PAYXPaychexMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.7%6.2%-8.2%
PAYX_3312020_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03312020PAYXPaychexMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
28.2%61.0%-5.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Paychex

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PAYXADPBRGPNSTNEELCGMedian
NamePaychex Automati.Broadrid.Global P.StoneCo ELC  
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Growth & Margins

PAYXADPBRGPNSTNEELCGMedian
NamePaychex Automati.Broadrid.Global P.StoneCo ELC  
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Valuation

PAYXADPBRGPNSTNEELCGMedian
NamePaychex Automati.Broadrid.Global P.StoneCo ELC  
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Returns

PAYXADPBRGPNSTNEELCGMedian
NamePaychex Automati.Broadrid.Global P.StoneCo ELC  
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment5,2785,0074,6124,0574,040
Total5,2785,0074,6124,0574,040


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Single Segment1,690    
Total1,690    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity15,384,092
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.3%
Average Daily Volume3,110,979
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.95
Basic Shares Quantity360,500,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
8312025930202510-Q 8/31/2025
5312025711202510-K 5/31/2025
2282025326202510-Q 2/28/2025
113020241219202410-Q 11/30/2024
83120241001202410-Q 8/31/2024
5312024711202410-K 5/31/2024
2292024402202410-Q 2/29/2024
113020231221202310-Q 11/30/2023
8312023928202310-Q 8/31/2023
5312023714202310-K 5/31/2023
2282023330202310-Q 2/28/2023
113020221222202210-Q 11/30/2022
8312022929202210-Q 8/31/2022
5312022715202210-K 5/31/2022
2282022331202210-Q 2/28/2022
113020211222202110-Q 11/30/2021