Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

WY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points highlighting why Weyerhaeuser (WY) stock moved by -14.7% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: **1. Weakness in the Wood Products Segment:** The Wood Products segment faced significant headwinds, reporting a $48 million loss for the third quarter of 2025, primarily due to historically low lumber and oriented strand board (OSB) prices. This led to a substantial $93 million decrease in adjusted EBITDA for the segment compared to the previous quarter. **2. Softening Log Prices and Domestic Market Pressure:** Log pricing in the domestic market experienced downward pressure, impacting Weyerhaeuser's average domestic sales realizations. Additionally, the Japanese log market softened, which resulted in decreased log prices and increased finished goods inventories for customers. **3. Decline in Real Estate, Energy & Natural Resources Segment:** The adjusted EBITDA for the Real Estate, Energy & Natural Resources segment was $52 million lower in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the prior quarter, contributing to overall financial challenges. **4. High Dividend Payout Ratio and Bearish Investor Sentiment:** Despite Weyerhaeuser beating third-quarter EPS estimates, the stock dropped post-earnings, reflecting broader market and operational concerns among investors. The company's dividend payout ratio stands at a high 186.7%, which may signal potential sustainability concerns to investors. This period also saw unusual bearish options activity, with traders purchasing a large volume of put options on December 2, 2025. **5. Analyst Downgrades and Challenging Market Outlook:** Analysts have noted ongoing declines in engineered wood product realizations and a challenging oriented strand board pricing environment, which suggest sustained financial pressure. Some analyst ratings have been downgraded, and price targets have been lowered, reflecting these concerns and the anticipated softer demand for Wood Products in the fourth quarter of 2025.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
WY Return13%27%-20%18%-17%-20%-10%
Peers Return10%43%-23%15%-17%-1%16%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
WY Win Rate50%58%33%42%50%30% 
Peers Win Rate52%71%40%48%50%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
WY Max Drawdown-55%-7%-29%-6%-21%-22% 
Peers Max Drawdown-43%-5%-32%-10%-21%-14% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PLD, RYN, PCH, WY. See WY Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventWYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-34.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven52.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-57.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven132.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven261 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-45.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven81.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven843 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-77.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven345.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to PLD, RYN, PCH, WY


In The Past

Weyerhaeuser's stock fell -34.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/4/2022. A -34.3% loss requires a 52.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Weyerhaeuser (WY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to WY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.5%8.5%-5.8%
WY_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022WYWeyerhaeuserDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.6%12.9%0.0%
WY_12312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield12312018WYWeyerhaeuserDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.2%45.6%-1.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
MPW_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025MPWMedical Properties TrustSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
8.5%8.5%-5.8%
WY_9302022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302022WYWeyerhaeuserDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.6%12.9%0.0%
WY_12312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield12312018WYWeyerhaeuserDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
24.2%45.6%-1.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Weyerhaeuser

Peers to compare with:

Financials

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Growth & Margins

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Valuation

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Returns

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Wood Products5,6577,9588,2215,7904,623
Timberlands2,2262,4191,6361,4661,618
Real Estate, Energy and Natural Resources (ENR)363368344276313
Unallocated items and intersegment eliminations-572-561   
Total7,67410,18410,2017,5326,554


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Timberlands and Real Estate & ENR (Energy and Natural Resources)12,59612,68212,73712,87413,130
Wood Products3,0732,9332,8912,6192,452
Unallocated Items1,3141,7252,024818824
Total16,98317,34017,65216,31116,406


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity15,200,024
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120255.4%
Average Daily Volume6,630,491
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.29
Basic Shares Quantity721,598,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025725202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024214202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241025202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023216202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022217202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221028202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021218202210-K 12/31/2021