Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.2%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 37%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -13%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.2%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LPX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) experienced a decline in its stock price, moving by approximately -12.7% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, primarily due to the following key factors: 1. 1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss: Louisiana-Pacific reported adjusted earnings of $0.36 per share for the third quarter of 2025, which fell short of analyst expectations of $0.38 per share. While revenue slightly exceeded forecasts, the earnings miss was a significant concern for investors. 2. 2. Downward Revision of Full-Year 2025 Estimates: Following the disappointing third-quarter results, full-year 2025 revenue estimates were reduced from $2.87 billion to $2.78 billion over the preceding 90 days. Similarly, earnings estimates for the full year were significantly lowered from $4.31 to $2.68 per share. 3.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LPX Return28%113%-23%22%48%-20%201%
Peers Return7%46%-20%5%2%-44%-25%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LPX Win Rate67%67%50%50%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate50%52%50%44%48%30% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LPX Max Drawdown-53%-1%-38%-14%-8%-27% 
Peers Max Drawdown-35%-1%-28%-23%-21%-46% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WFG, MERC, LPX, JCTC. See LPX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLPXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven541 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven146.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven230 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven54.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven393 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-94.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1860.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2899 days1480 days

Compare to WFG, MERC, LPX, JCTC


In The Past

Louisiana-Pacific's stock fell -38.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -38.6% loss requires a 63.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)

Better Bets than Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LPX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
LPX_10312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312018LPXLouisiana-PacificDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%37.3%-5.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
LPX_10312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312018LPXLouisiana-PacificDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%37.3%-5.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Louisiana-Pacific

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LPXWFGMERCJCTCMedian
NameLouisian.West Fra.Mercer I.Jewett-C. 
Mkt Price82.7562.031.922.2832.16
Mkt Cap5.84.90.10.02.5
Rev LTM2,8225,7031,907442,364
Op Inc LTM340-253-69-3-36
FCF LTM14213-62-25
FCF 3Y Avg14972-104237
CFO LTM42044134-2227
CFO 3Y Avg426533112219

Growth & Margins

LPXWFGMERCJCTCMedian
NameLouisian.West Fra.Mercer I.Jewett-C. 
Rev Chg LTM-3.3%-9.2%-5.8%-9.1%-7.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-8.8%-16.2%-4.9%-11.2%-10.0%
Rev Chg Q-8.2%-9.0%-8.8%-20.7%-8.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.0%-2.2%-2.3%-6.9%-2.2%
Op Mgn LTM12.0%-4.4%-3.6%-6.0%-4.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.1%-1.3%-2.6%-2.9%-2.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.7%-3.3%-4.0%-2.0%-3.0%
CFO/Rev LTM14.9%7.7%1.8%-4.9%4.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg15.0%8.6%0.6%4.0%6.3%
FCF/Rev LTM5.0%0.2%-3.2%-5.2%-1.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.9%1.1%-5.1%3.6%2.3%

Valuation

LPXWFGMERCJCTCMedian
NameLouisian.West Fra.Mercer I.Jewett-C. 
Mkt Cap5.84.90.10.02.5
P/S2.20.90.10.30.6
P/EBIT20.5-20.0-2.7-5.0-3.8
P/E28.8-21.6-1.1-6.3-3.7
P/CFO14.812.15.7-6.08.9
Total Yield4.7%-2.7%-79.0%-15.8%-9.3%
Dividend Yield1.2%1.9%10.4%0.0%1.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.4%1.1%-26.4%10.0%1.3%
D/E0.10.18.10.20.1
Net D/E0.0-0.07.60.10.1

Returns

LPXWFGMERCJCTCMedian
NameLouisian.West Fra.Mercer I.Jewett-C. 
1M Rtn-3.5%3.2%0.5%-18.0%-1.5%
3M Rtn-10.7%-12.7%-38.9%-36.8%-24.8%
6M Rtn-9.7%-16.1%-47.4%-39.5%-27.8%
12M Rtn-28.6%-33.6%-67.6%-49.8%-41.7%
3Y Rtn34.6%-16.5%-84.7%-54.2%-35.4%
1M Excs Rtn-3.5%3.2%0.6%-18.0%-1.5%
3M Excs Rtn-19.5%-19.6%-45.2%-43.7%-31.6%
6M Excs Rtn-24.4%-30.9%-62.1%-54.2%-42.5%
12M Excs Rtn-42.7%-49.8%-81.7%-60.3%-55.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-33.1%-91.2%-157.5%-133.1%-112.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Siding1,3281,4691,170959917
Oriented Strand Board (OSB)1,0262,0622,3871,220777
Louisiana-Pacific South America (LPSA)205241265169159
Other2284955266
Intersegment Sales -2-3-1-5
Engineered Wood Products (EWP)   389396
Total2,5813,8543,9142,7882,310


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Siding1,2911,045705521516
Oriented Strand Board (OSB)526491521511558
Other45574869037
Louisiana-Pacific South America (LPSA)165151118106109
Non-segment related 589608778469
Discontinued operations  156  
Engineered Wood Products (EWP)   81146
Total2,4372,3502,1942,0871,835


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,136,365
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202512.5%
Average Daily Volume1,209,984
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.42
Basic Shares Quantity70,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023214202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021