Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.2%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
  Key risks
LPX key risks include [1] high sensitivity to volatile pricing for its key commodity, Show more.
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.2%
5 Key risks
LPX key risks include [1] high sensitivity to volatile pricing for its key commodity, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

LPX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The request asks for an explanation of a -10.9% stock movement for Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025. As of today's date, December 18, 2025, this period is either current or in the very recent past (for the latter part of the range), but the start date of August 31, 2025, is a future date relative to my knowledge cutoff when I was last updated. Therefore, I cannot access specific real-time or future stock performance data or news to accurately explain a -10.9% movement for that precise timeframe. However, based on the provided search results which include information up to December 2025, I can highlight some key points about LPX's performance and relevant news during this broader period. Here are some key points regarding Louisiana-Pacific's (LPX) stock:

1. Louisiana-Pacific reported third quarter 2025 results with a notable decrease in net sales, net income, and Adjusted EBITDA year-over-year. Net sales were $663 million (down $59 million YoY), net income was $9 million (down $82 million YoY), and Adjusted EBITDA was $82 million (down $71 million YoY).

2. The company's third-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.36 missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.37 or $0.38, and revenue of $663 million also fell short of the consensus estimate of $670.26 million. This led to a pre-market stock decline.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
LPX Return28%113%-23%22%48%-17%210%
Peers Return49%-15%44%-9%-18%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
LPX Win Rate67%67%50%50%50%42% 
Peers Win Rate51%62%43%52%52%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
LPX Max Drawdown-53%-1%-38%-14%-8%-27% 
Peers Max Drawdown-4%-27%-7%-16%-25% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WY, WFG, BCC, UFPI, PCH. See LPX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventLPXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven541 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-59.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven146.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven230 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven54.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven393 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-94.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven1860.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2,899 days1,480 days

Compare to WFG, MERC, LPX, JCTC


In The Past

Louisiana-Pacific's stock fell -38.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -38.6% loss requires a 63.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)

Better Bets than Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to LPX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
LPX_10312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312018LPXLouisiana-PacificDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%37.3%-5.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
LPX_10312018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312018LPXLouisiana-PacificDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%37.3%-5.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Louisiana-Pacific

Peers to compare with:

Financials

LPXWYWFGBCCUFPIPCHMedian
NameLouisian.Weyerhae.West Fra.Boise Ca.UFP Indu.Potlatch. 
Mkt Price84.4423.7361.6176.2993.4441.3068.95
Mkt Cap5.917.14.82.95.33.25.1
Rev LTM2,8227,0725,7036,5126,4531,1166,078
Op Inc LTM340595-25326039692300
FCF LTM1428913-64272119104
FCF 3Y Avg1494667226454165206
CFO LTM420894441218544201430
CFO 3Y Avg4261,095533492767179513

Growth & Margins

LPXWYWFGBCCUFPIPCHMedian
NameLouisian.Weyerhae.West Fra.Boise Ca.UFP Indu.Potlatch. 
Rev Chg LTM-3.3%-1.6%-9.2%-4.3%-3.9%5.4%-3.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-8.8%-11.8%-16.2%-8.2%-12.5%-4.7%-10.3%
Rev Chg Q-8.2%2.1%-9.0%-2.7%-5.4%23.1%-4.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.0%0.5%-2.2%-0.7%-1.4%5.6%-1.0%
Op Mgn LTM12.0%8.4%-4.4%4.0%6.1%8.2%7.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg14.1%11.4%-1.3%7.1%7.8%5.3%7.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.7%-0.5%-3.3%-1.3%-0.3%2.4%-0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM14.9%12.6%7.7%3.3%8.4%18.0%10.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg15.0%14.9%8.6%7.3%10.9%16.7%12.9%
FCF/Rev LTM5.0%1.3%0.2%-1.0%4.2%10.6%2.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.9%6.2%1.1%3.9%7.6%6.1%5.5%

Valuation

LPXWYWFGBCCUFPIPCHMedian
NameLouisian.Weyerhae.West Fra.Boise Ca.UFP Indu.Potlatch. 
Mkt Cap5.917.14.82.95.33.25.1
P/S2.22.50.90.40.82.81.6
P/EBIT20.530.8-20.010.312.134.216.3
P/E28.854.0-21.615.016.349.222.5
P/CFO14.820.012.113.39.715.714.0
Total Yield4.7%5.2%-2.7%7.9%7.7%6.5%5.8%
Dividend Yield1.2%3.3%1.9%1.2%1.6%4.4%1.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.4%2.0%1.1%5.7%8.5%2.0%2.0%
D/E0.10.30.10.20.10.30.1
Net D/E0.00.3-0.00.0-0.10.30.0

Returns

LPXWYWFGBCCUFPIPCHMedian
NameLouisian.Weyerhae.West Fra.Boise Ca.UFP Indu.Potlatch. 
1M Rtn13.2%11.4%4.3%14.8%6.1%8.7%10.0%
3M Rtn-6.2%-2.2%-14.9%-4.9%-3.4%3.4%-4.2%
6M Rtn-1.8%-7.0%-16.0%-8.6%-1.0%10.1%-4.4%
12M Rtn-22.8%-16.5%-28.7%-42.1%-22.3%4.2%-22.6%
3Y Rtn42.1%-15.1%-10.5%24.4%21.9%4.8%13.3%
1M Excs Rtn12.5%10.6%3.5%14.1%5.4%8.0%9.3%
3M Excs Rtn-8.2%-3.7%-17.1%-7.5%-5.8%1.3%-6.7%
6M Excs Rtn-14.2%-19.4%-28.4%-21.0%-13.4%-2.3%-16.8%
12M Excs Rtn-35.3%-29.5%-41.1%-54.5%-36.4%-9.0%-35.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-33.1%-86.2%-83.8%-46.8%-50.1%-67.4%-58.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Siding1,3281,4691,170959917
Oriented Strand Board (OSB)1,0262,0622,3871,220777
Louisiana-Pacific South America (LPSA)205241265169159
Other2284955266
Intersegment Sales -2-3-1-5
Engineered Wood Products (EWP)   389396
Total2,5813,8543,9142,7882,310


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Siding1,2911,045705521516
Oriented Strand Board (OSB)526491521511558
Other45574869037
Louisiana-Pacific South America (LPSA)165151118106109
Non-segment related 589608778469
Discontinued operations  156  
Engineered Wood Products (EWP)   81146
Total2,4372,3502,1942,0871,835


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,337,320
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520254.9%
Average Daily Volume955,505
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.54
Basic Shares Quantity70,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-1.2%-0.0%8.6%
8/6/2025-0.8%10.2%6.5%
5/6/2025-0.8%3.9%2.6%
2/19/2025-0.6%-1.5%-7.7%
11/5/2024-0.3%3.9%10.8%
8/7/20240.9%-0.9%-2.6%
5/8/2024-1.3%4.4%2.4%
2/14/2024-0.1%0.8%12.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive81614
# Negative1579
Median Positive2.9%3.9%10.4%
Median Negative-1.2%-2.6%-7.0%
Max Positive8.3%10.2%31.4%
Max Negative-12.5%-11.0%-45.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241105202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023214202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022503202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021222202210-K 12/31/2021