Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $84.47 | Market Cap: $5.9 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Forest Products
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $84.47Market Cap: $5.9 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Forest Products
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.2% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% | Key risksLPX key risks include [1] high sensitivity to volatile pricing for its key commodity, Show more. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -10%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -33% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.2% |
| Key risksLPX key risks include [1] high sensitivity to volatile pricing for its key commodity, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LPX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The request asks for an explanation of a -10.9% stock movement for Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025. As of today's date, December 18, 2025, this period is either current or in the very recent past (for the latter part of the range), but the start date of August 31, 2025, is a future date relative to my knowledge cutoff when I was last updated. Therefore, I cannot access specific real-time or future stock performance data or news to accurately explain a -10.9% movement for that precise timeframe.
However, based on the provided search results which include information up to December 2025, I can highlight some key points about LPX's performance and relevant news during this broader period.
Here are some key points regarding Louisiana-Pacific's (LPX) stock:
1. Louisiana-Pacific reported third quarter 2025 results with a notable decrease in net sales, net income, and Adjusted EBITDA year-over-year. Net sales were $663 million (down $59 million YoY), net income was $9 million (down $82 million YoY), and Adjusted EBITDA was $82 million (down $71 million YoY).
2. The company's third-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.36 missed analysts' consensus estimates of $0.37 or $0.38, and revenue of $663 million also fell short of the consensus estimate of $670.26 million. This led to a pre-market stock decline.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LPX Return | 28% | 113% | -23% | 22% | 48% | -17% | 210% |
| Peers Return | � | 49% | -15% | 44% | -9% | -18% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LPX Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 51% | 62% | 43% | 52% | 52% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LPX Max Drawdown | -53% | -1% | -38% | -14% | -8% | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -4% | -27% | -7% | -16% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WY, WFG, BCC, UFPI, PCH. See LPX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LPX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 541 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -59.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 146.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 230 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 393 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -94.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 1860.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,899 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to WFG, MERC, LPX, JCTC
In The Past
Louisiana-Pacific's stock fell -38.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -38.6% loss requires a 63.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LPX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| 10312018 | LPX | Louisiana-Pacific | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 37.3% | -5.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| 10312018 | LPX | Louisiana-Pacific | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 37.3% | -5.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Louisiana-Pacific
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 68.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.1 |
| Rev LTM | 6,078 |
| Op Inc LTM | 300 |
| FCF LTM | 104 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 206 |
| CFO LTM | 430 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 513 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -10.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.1 |
| P/S | 1.6 |
| P/EBIT | 16.3 |
| P/E | 22.5 |
| P/CFO | 14.0 |
| Total Yield | 5.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 10.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -4.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -22.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 13.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 9.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -35.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -58.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siding | 1,328 | 1,469 | 1,170 | 959 | 917 |
| Oriented Strand Board (OSB) | 1,026 | 2,062 | 2,387 | 1,220 | 777 |
| Louisiana-Pacific South America (LPSA) | 205 | 241 | 265 | 169 | 159 |
| Other | 22 | 84 | 95 | 52 | 66 |
| Intersegment Sales | -2 | -3 | -1 | -5 | |
| Engineered Wood Products (EWP) | 389 | 396 | |||
| Total | 2,581 | 3,854 | 3,914 | 2,788 | 2,310 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siding | 1,291 | 1,045 | 705 | 521 | 516 |
| Oriented Strand Board (OSB) | 526 | 491 | 521 | 511 | 558 |
| Other | 455 | 74 | 86 | 90 | 37 |
| Louisiana-Pacific South America (LPSA) | 165 | 151 | 118 | 106 | 109 |
| Non-segment related | 589 | 608 | 778 | 469 | |
| Discontinued operations | 156 | ||||
| Engineered Wood Products (EWP) | 81 | 146 | |||
| Total | 2,437 | 2,350 | 2,194 | 2,087 | 1,835 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -1.2% | -0.0% | 8.6% |
| 8/6/2025 | -0.8% | 10.2% | 6.5% |
| 5/6/2025 | -0.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| 2/19/2025 | -0.6% | -1.5% | -7.7% |
| 11/5/2024 | -0.3% | 3.9% | 10.8% |
| 8/7/2024 | 0.9% | -0.9% | -2.6% |
| 5/8/2024 | -1.3% | 4.4% | 2.4% |
| 2/14/2024 | -0.1% | 0.8% | 12.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 16 | 14 |
| # Negative | 15 | 7 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.9% | 3.9% | 10.4% |
| Median Negative | -1.2% | -2.6% | -7.0% |
| Max Positive | 8.3% | 10.2% | 31.4% |
| Max Negative | -12.5% | -11.0% | -45.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8092022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |