Tearsheet

Republic Services (RSG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $214.74 | Market Cap: $66.9 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services

Republic Services (RSG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $214.74
Market Cap: $66.9 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 4.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.5 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -11%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -5.6%
Key risks
RSG key risks include [1] disruptive and costly labor strikes in multiple key regions.
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 19%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, CFO LTM is 4.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.5 Bil
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 19%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, Circular Economy & Recycling, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Waste Management Solutions, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -11%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -5.6%
4 Key risks
RSG key risks include [1] disruptive and costly labor strikes in multiple key regions.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

RSG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -8% stock movement for Republic Services (RSG) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss: Republic Services reported third-quarter 2025 revenues of $4.21 billion, which missed Wall Street analyst expectations of $4.24 billion. This 0.8% revenue shortfall contributed to a negative market reaction.

2. Softness in Construction and Manufacturing End Markets: Management indicated that persistent weakness in construction and manufacturing sectors significantly impacted volumes. This ongoing softness was a primary factor contributing to a decline in Environmental Solutions revenue.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RSG Return10%47%-6%30%23%7%159%
Peers Return35%-4%22%23%2%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RSG Win Rate67%67%42%58%67%58% 
Peers Win Rate58%67%45%57%57%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RSG Max Drawdown-26%-8%-17%-6%-1%-0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-6%-22%-5%-5%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WM, WCN, CLH, GFL, CWST. See RSG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRSGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-17.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven21.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven112 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-34.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven232 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-10.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven11.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven123 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-54.8%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven121.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,532 days1,480 days

Compare to WM, ACM, CLH, CWST, MDRN


In The Past

Republic Services's stock fell -17.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/12/2022. A -17.9% loss requires a 21.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Republic Services (RSG)

Better Bets than Republic Services (RSG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RSG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.6%5.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%
RSG_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022RSGRepublic ServicesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
19.6%29.6%-5.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
16.3%16.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.6%5.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%
RSG_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022RSGRepublic ServicesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
19.6%29.6%-5.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Republic Services

Peers to compare with:

Financials

RSGWMWCNCLHGFLCWSTMedian
NameRepublic.Waste Ma.Waste Co.Clean Ha.GFL Envi.Casella . 
Mkt Price214.73219.77176.00237.8244.1699.44195.37
Mkt Cap66.988.645.212.716.06.330.6
Rev LTM16,50224,7849,3545,9628,2241,7958,789
Op Inc LTM3,3284,3721,762652538931,207
FCF LTM2,5292,4021,23444122678838
FCF 3Y Avg2,1182,0591,21934013974779
CFO LTM4,3375,8562,4268161,4363431,931
CFO 3Y Avg3,8935,1682,2457641,2652711,755

Growth & Margins

RSGWMWCNCLHGFLCWSTMedian
NameRepublic.Waste Ma.Waste Co.Clean Ha.GFL Envi.Casella . 
Rev Chg LTM4.3%15.9%7.6%2.9%27.5%20.5%11.7%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg8.5%8.6%10.3%6.0%10.3%19.6%9.4%
Rev Chg Q3.3%14.9%5.1%1.3%9.0%17.9%7.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.8%3.5%1.3%0.3%1.7%4.3%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM20.2%17.6%18.8%10.9%6.5%5.2%14.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg19.3%18.4%18.6%11.3%4.4%6.9%14.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.3%-0.2%-0.0%-0.0%0.7%-0.5%-0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM26.3%23.6%25.9%13.7%17.5%19.1%21.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg24.8%23.3%26.0%13.4%17.3%18.2%20.8%
FCF/Rev LTM15.3%9.7%13.2%7.4%2.7%4.4%8.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg13.5%9.3%14.2%5.9%2.0%5.2%7.6%

Valuation

RSGWMWCNCLHGFLCWSTMedian
NameRepublic.Waste Ma.Waste Co.Clean Ha.GFL Envi.Casella . 
Mkt Cap66.988.645.212.716.06.330.6
P/S4.33.64.82.12.13.43.5
P/EBIT22.921.840.118.333.173.128.0
P/E33.934.772.632.04.8394.834.3
P/CFO16.515.218.615.211.917.615.9
Total Yield4.0%4.3%2.1%3.1%21.0%0.3%3.5%
Dividend Yield1.0%1.5%0.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.6%2.6%2.9%3.0%0.8%1.4%2.8%
D/E0.20.30.20.20.50.20.2
Net D/E0.20.30.20.20.40.20.2

Returns

RSGWMWCNCLHGFLCWSTMedian
NameRepublic.Waste Ma.Waste Co.Clean Ha.GFL Envi.Casella . 
1M Rtn2.3%6.1%4.0%17.9%-0.1%11.7%5.0%
3M Rtn-4.8%2.3%1.7%0.6%-5.3%13.7%1.2%
6M Rtn-13.1%-5.0%-5.6%5.1%-11.2%-15.4%-8.4%
12M Rtn5.5%6.7%0.6%-0.7%-0.8%-6.6%-0.1%
3Y Rtn69.3%42.3%33.7%106.8%56.7%22.1%49.5%
1M Excs Rtn1.6%5.3%3.2%17.2%-0.8%11.0%4.3%
3M Excs Rtn-6.4%0.8%-0.8%-1.1%-5.6%11.1%-0.9%
6M Excs Rtn-25.5%-17.4%-18.0%-7.3%-23.6%-27.7%-20.8%
12M Excs Rtn-7.2%-6.5%-12.6%-13.7%-12.5%-17.3%-12.5%
3Y Excs Rtn-5.6%-30.4%-40.5%32.8%-12.8%-50.1%-21.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Recycling and waste business operating primarily in geographic areas located in the western United7,7697,1076,6306,0596,012
Recycling and waste business operating primarily in geographic areas located in the southeastern and7,5667,0296,2295,6265,783
Environmental solutions business1,7011,262242  
Corporate entities and other243248220346398
Intercompany Revenue-2,314-2,134-2,027-1,878-1,894
Total14,96513,51111,29510,15410,299


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Recycling and waste business operating primarily in geographic areas located in the western United13,66512,41812,19911,59311,389
Recycling and waste business operating primarily in geographic areas located in the southeastern and10,98810,5109,9279,0058,948
Environmental solutions business4,4714,0861,212  
Corporate entities and other2,2862,0391,6172,8362,347
Total31,41029,05324,95523,43422,684


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,251,480
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520255.9%
Average Daily Volume1,838,923
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.77
Basic Shares Quantity311,700,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/30/2025-0.8%-2.7%1.3%
7/29/2025-5.8%-5.7%-4.5%
4/24/20251.2%3.6%5.0%
2/13/20253.1%2.8%5.0%
10/29/2024-2.7%-1.1%6.8%
7/24/2024-5.2%-2.7%3.6%
2/27/20240.8%-0.4%3.8%
10/26/2023-0.0%3.9%9.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151318
# Negative8105
Median Positive1.6%2.8%4.5%
Median Negative-1.9%-2.1%-3.4%
Max Positive5.0%5.9%12.1%
Max Negative-5.8%-7.2%-23.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025730202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024214202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231027202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023428202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221028202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022805202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Brummer GreggEVP, COO8262025Sell233.947,3381,716,652949,796Form
1CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.8212025Buy234.914,2581,000,24525,797,017,097Form
2Carlsen ElyseCAO6052025Sell253.1723559,495148,104Form
3Weymouth Katharine 12092024Sell215.271,859400,187189,222Form