Tearsheet

Joby Aviation (JOBY)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $13.35 | Market Cap: $11.3 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Airport Services

Joby Aviation (JOBY)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $13.35
Market Cap: $11.3 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Airport Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1935%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -663 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2927%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -99%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 602x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility.
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2108%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2353%
3  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12%
4  Key risks
JOBY key risks include [1] delays in its unprecedented FAA aircraft certification process and [2] a substantial annual cash burn of approximately $500 million.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1935%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -99%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility.
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -663 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2927%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 602x
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2108%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2353%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12%
7 Key risks
JOBY key risks include [1] delays in its unprecedented FAA aircraft certification process and [2] a substantial annual cash burn of approximately $500 million.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

JOBY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Regulatory Hurdles and Certification Delays Continue to Pose Risks. Joby Aviation faces ongoing challenges in navigating the regulatory landscape, with potential delays in Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification for its air taxi services. Legislative proposals aimed at stricter aviation safety regulations could further complicate the certification processes, pushing back commercial deployment timelines.

2. Significant Cash Burn and Concerns Over Shareholder Dilution Persist. The development and certification of eVTOL aircraft are capital-intensive, leading to a high cash burn rate for Joby Aviation. This situation raises investor concerns about the company's need for further equity raises, which could result in the dilution of existing shareholders' stakes.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
JOBY Return-37%-54%99%22%73%
Peers Return89%0%-5%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
JOBY Win Rate100%33%42%50%42%58% 
Peers Win Rate42%56%36%47% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
JOBY Max Drawdown-45%-56%-1%-32%-34% 
Peers Max Drawdown-11%-56%-34% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ACHR, EVEX, BA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventJOBYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-79.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven393.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven932 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-4.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven4.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven13 days148 days

Compare to JAG, JOBY, UP, ASLE, SOAR


In The Past

Joby Aviation's stock fell -79.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2021. A -79.7% loss requires a 393.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Joby Aviation (JOBY)

Better Bets than Joby Aviation (JOBY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to JOBY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Joby Aviation

Peers to compare with:

Financials

JOBYACHREVEXBAMedian
NameJoby Avi.Archer A.Eve Boeing  
Mkt Price13.207.584.58206.3310.39
Mkt Cap11.15.01.5156.88.1
Rev LTM230080,75711
Op Inc LTM-663-619-198-8,424-641
FCF LTM-533-487-183-6,350-510
FCF 3Y Avg-434-398-133-3,029-416
CFO LTM-477-408-173-3,716-443
CFO 3Y Avg-387-337-129-976-362

Growth & Margins

JOBYACHREVEXBAMedian
NameJoby Avi.Archer A.Eve Boeing  
Rev Chg LTM1,934.5%--10.2%972.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg---10.1%10.1%
Rev Chg Q80,521.4%--30.4%40,275.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM23,006.1%--7.2%11,506.7%
Op Mgn LTM-2,926.6%---10.4%-1,468.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg----7.2%-7.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM647,806.1%--2.0%323,904.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-2,107.5%---4.6%-1,056.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg----1.3%-1.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-2,352.7%---7.9%-1,180.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg----3.9%-3.9%

Valuation

JOBYACHREVEXBAMedian
NameJoby Avi.Archer A.Eve Boeing  
Mkt Cap11.15.01.5156.88.1
P/S602.0--2.0302.0
P/EBIT-20.6-10.2-6.5-23.7-15.4
P/E-12.9-10.1-6.2-16.7-11.5
P/CFO-28.6-15.5-7.2-44.1-22.0
Total Yield-7.7%-9.9%-16.2%-6.0%-8.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-8.0%-21.0%-10.6%-2.6%-9.3%
D/E0.00.00.10.30.1
Net D/E-0.1-0.2-0.20.2-0.1

Returns

JOBYACHREVEXBAMedian
NameJoby Avi.Archer A.Eve Boeing  
1M Rtn-5.0%2.2%16.8%7.6%4.9%
3M Rtn-6.8%-15.8%25.1%-3.9%-5.3%
6M Rtn49.3%-25.7%-13.6%4.4%-4.6%
12M Rtn60.2%-16.6%-5.4%19.2%6.9%
3Y Rtn264.6%257.5%-37.7%11.7%134.6%
1M Excs Rtn-5.7%1.4%16.1%6.8%4.1%
3M Excs Rtn-11.1%-19.4%19.5%-5.7%-8.4%
6M Excs Rtn36.9%-38.1%-26.0%-8.0%-17.0%
12M Excs Rtn58.6%-20.7%-13.8%10.5%-1.6%
3Y Excs Rtn189.3%184.1%-110.8%-57.7%63.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil2024202320222021
Flight services1   
Total1   


Assets by Segment
$ Mil2024202320222021
Single segment 1,2931,488692
Total 1,2931,488692


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity57,672,644
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-8.2%
Average Daily Volume18,393,324
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.14
Basic Shares Quantity844,551,006
Short % of Basic Shares6.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/2025-4.5%8.7%3.4%
8/6/2025-8.9%-6.0%-28.9%
5/7/20253.6%11.7%26.5%
2/26/20250.7%1.3%-4.0%
11/6/20240.6%16.4%74.4%
8/7/20245.9%1.0%-2.9%
5/7/2024-8.9%0.4%-4.1%
2/21/2024-10.0%-9.2%-13.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive10105
# Negative6611
Median Positive4.9%6.3%26.5%
Median Negative-6.7%-6.4%-8.8%
Max Positive13.1%24.2%74.4%
Max Negative-10.0%-13.9%-30.0%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022812202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022513202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021328202210-K 12/31/2021