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Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1935%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -663 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2927%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -99%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 602x
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility.
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2108%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2353%
3  Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12%
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1935%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -99%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility.
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -663 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2927%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 602x
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2108%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2353%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

JOBY Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining Joby Aviation's stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Joby Aviation's Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results. The company reported a larger-than-expected loss of $0.41 per share, significantly missing the consensus estimate of a $0.20 loss per share, and revenue of only $20,000, which was substantially below forecasts. This led to a 6% drop in the stock price and subsequent analyst downgrades in early August.

2. October 2025 Equity Offering. Joby Aviation initiated and completed an underwritten public offering of its common stock in early October. Such offerings typically dilute the value of existing shares and can exert downward pressure on the stock price, contributing to a period where the stock experienced significant declines, including a nearly 9% drop around late October.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
JOBY Return--37%-54%99%22%70%20%
Peers Return6%-12%-28%-11%-35%-14%-66%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
JOBY Win Rate100%33%42%50%42%70% 
Peers Win Rate52%22%40%45%25%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
JOBY Max Drawdown--45%-56%-1%-32%-34% 
Peers Max Drawdown-2%-26%-33%-38%-49%-39% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JAG, JOBY, UP, ASLE, SOAR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventJOBYS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-79.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven393.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven932 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-4.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven4.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven13 days148 days

Compare to JAG, JOBY, UP, ASLE, SOAR


In The Past

Joby Aviation's stock fell -79.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2021. A -79.7% loss requires a 393.7% gain to breakeven.

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Asset Allocation

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About Joby Aviation (JOBY)

Better Bets than Joby Aviation (JOBY)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to JOBY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Joby Aviation

Peers to compare with:

Financials

JOBYJAGUPASLESOARMedian
NameJoby Avi.Job Aire Wheels U.AerSale Volato  
Mkt Price14.63-0.626.511.263.88
Mkt Cap12.4-0.40.30.00.4
Rev LTM23307573399292
Op Inc LTM-6631-2721421
FCF LTM-5330-287-18-9-18
FCF 3Y Avg-434--363-81--363
CFO LTM-4770-1103-9-9
CFO 3Y Avg-387--278-65--278

Growth & Margins

JOBYJAGUPASLESOARMedian
NameJoby Avi.Job Aire Wheels U.AerSale Volato  
Rev Chg LTM1,934.5%18.5%-9.1%-1.6%291.2%18.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg---19.0%-7.0%--13.0%
Rev Chg Q80,521.4%2.8%-4.3%-13.9%13,632.0%2.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM23,006.1%0.7%-1.1%-3.3%36.6%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM-2,926.6%3.6%-35.9%4.0%2.5%2.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg---31.7%1.6%--15.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM647,806.1%-1.0%-3.5%0.4%5.8%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM-2,107.5%0.9%-14.5%0.9%-9.8%-9.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg---23.8%-19.3%--21.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-2,352.7%0.9%-37.9%-5.2%-9.8%-9.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg---34.1%-24.1%--29.1%

Valuation

JOBYJAGUPASLESOARMedian
NameJoby Avi.Job Aire Wheels U.AerSale Volato  
Mkt Cap12.4-0.40.30.00.4
P/S602.0-1.71.10.01.4
P/EBIT-20.6--4.924.91.1-1.9
P/E-12.9--3.765.7-1.5-2.6
P/CFO-28.6--11.8120.6-0.4-6.1
Total Yield-7.7%--27.2%1.5%-68.1%-17.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-8.0%--263.1%-15.5%--15.5%
D/E0.0-0.40.40.50.4
Net D/E-0.1-0.30.4-0.90.1

Returns

JOBYJAGUPASLESOARMedian
NameJoby Avi.Job Aire Wheels U.AerSale Volato  
1M Rtn-10.4%--52.7%-12.1%-21.7%-16.9%
3M Rtn12.2%--73.4%-23.0%-24.6%-23.8%
6M Rtn85.9%--57.2%8.0%-38.8%-15.4%
12M Rtn86.4%--70.9%6.7%-86.2%-32.1%
3Y Rtn254.2%--95.3%-59.6%-99.5%-77.5%
1M Excs Rtn-10.3%--52.6%-12.1%-21.7%-16.9%
3M Excs Rtn6.3%--80.4%-29.6%-22.5%-26.0%
6M Excs Rtn71.2%--72.0%-6.8%-53.6%-30.2%
12M Excs Rtn49.9%--88.8%-10.2%-94.2%-49.5%
3Y Excs Rtn199.5%--167.9%-130.9%-172.3%-149.4%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity62,837,620
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202511.1%
Average Daily Volume36,184,633
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.74
Basic Shares Quantity844,551,006
Short % of Basic Shares7.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231106202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022812202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022513202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021328202210-K 12/31/2021