Joby Aviation (JOBY)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $13.35 | Market Cap: $11.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Airport Services
Joby Aviation (JOBY)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $13.35Market Cap: $11.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Airport Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1935% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -663 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2927% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -99% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 602x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility. | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2108%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2353% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% | |
| Key risksJOBY key risks include [1] delays in its unprecedented FAA aircraft certification process and [2] a substantial annual cash burn of approximately $500 million. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 1935% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -99% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Advanced Air Mobility. |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -663 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -2927% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 602x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2108%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2353% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -12% |
| Key risksJOBY key risks include [1] delays in its unprecedented FAA aircraft certification process and [2] a substantial annual cash burn of approximately $500 million. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
JOBY Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Regulatory Hurdles and Certification Delays Continue to Pose Risks.
Joby Aviation faces ongoing challenges in navigating the regulatory landscape, with potential delays in Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification for its air taxi services. Legislative proposals aimed at stricter aviation safety regulations could further complicate the certification processes, pushing back commercial deployment timelines.
2. Significant Cash Burn and Concerns Over Shareholder Dilution Persist.
The development and certification of eVTOL aircraft are capital-intensive, leading to a high cash burn rate for Joby Aviation. This situation raises investor concerns about the company's need for further equity raises, which could result in the dilution of existing shareholders' stakes.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| JOBY Return | � | -37% | -54% | 99% | 22% | 73% | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | 89% | 0% | -5% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| JOBY Win Rate | 100% | 33% | 42% | 50% | 42% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | 42% | 56% | 36% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| JOBY Max Drawdown | � | -45% | -56% | -1% | -32% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -11% | -56% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ACHR, EVEX, BA.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | JOBY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -79.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 393.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 932 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -4.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 4.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 13 days | 148 days |
Compare to JAG, JOBY, UP, ASLE, SOAR
In The Past
Joby Aviation's stock fell -79.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/16/2021. A -79.7% loss requires a 393.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Joby Aviation Earnings Notes | |||
| Joby Aviation Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return | ||
| Is 20.2% Fall In Joby Aviation (JOBY) Stock A Buying Opportunity? | Actionable | ||
| Day 7 of Loss Streak for Joby Aviation Stock with -20% Return (vs. 78% YTD) [8/21/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 6 of Loss Streak for Joby Aviation Stock with -18% Return (vs. 81% YTD) [8/20/2025] | Notification | ||
| Joby Aviation (JOBY) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Joby Aviation (JOBY) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| Joby Aviation (JOBY) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Joby Aviation (JOBY) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Joby Aviation (JOBY) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| With Joby Aviation Stock Down 14% In A Week, How Confident Are You? | November 8th, 2025 | ||
| Joby Aviation Stock To $12? | October 29th, 2025 | ||
| What’s The Downside Risk For Joby Aviation? | October 14th, 2025 | ||
| JOBY Stock Down -20% after 7-Day Loss Streak | August 21st, 2025 | ||
| JOBY Stock Down -18% after 6-Day Loss Streak | August 21st, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to JOBY. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Joby Aviation
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 10.39 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.1 |
| Rev LTM | 11 |
| Op Inc LTM | -641 |
| FCF LTM | -510 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -416 |
| CFO LTM | -443 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -362 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 972.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 40,275.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 11,506.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -1,468.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 323,904.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -1,056.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -1.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -1,180.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -3.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.1 |
| P/S | 302.0 |
| P/EBIT | -15.4 |
| P/E | -11.5 |
| P/CFO | -22.0 |
| Total Yield | -8.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -9.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -4.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 134.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -8.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 63.2% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | -4.5% | 8.7% | 3.4% |
| 8/6/2025 | -8.9% | -6.0% | -28.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | 3.6% | 11.7% | 26.5% |
| 2/26/2025 | 0.7% | 1.3% | -4.0% |
| 11/6/2024 | 0.6% | 16.4% | 74.4% |
| 8/7/2024 | 5.9% | 1.0% | -2.9% |
| 5/7/2024 | -8.9% | 0.4% | -4.1% |
| 2/21/2024 | -10.0% | -9.2% | -13.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 10 | 5 |
| # Negative | 6 | 6 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 6.3% | 26.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.7% | -6.4% | -8.8% |
| Max Positive | 13.1% | 24.2% | 74.4% |
| Max Negative | -10.0% | -13.9% | -30.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8122022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |