GEO (GEO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $16.58 | Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services
GEO (GEO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $16.58Market Cap: $2.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Environmental & Facilities Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.2% | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -16% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 51% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32% | Key risksGEO key risks include [1] political and activist opposition resulting in government contract cancellations and major banks denying financing, Show more. | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Public Safety & Justice. Themes include Correctional Facility Management, Electronic Monitoring & Supervision, and Rehabilitation & Reintegration Services. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.2% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 48% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Public Safety & Justice. Themes include Correctional Facility Management, Electronic Monitoring & Supervision, and Rehabilitation & Reintegration Services. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -16% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 51% |
| Key risksGEO key risks include [1] political and activist opposition resulting in government contract cancellations and major banks denying financing, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
GEO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate -20% movement in GEO's stock price between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025:
1. Lower-than-expected revenue guidance for Q4 2025 and full-year EBITDA: Despite beating Q3 2025 revenue estimates, The GEO Group provided Q4 CY2025 revenue guidance of $663.5 million at the midpoint, which fell below analyst estimates of $696.2 million. Additionally, the full-year EBITDA guidance of $460 million at the midpoint was also lower than analyst expectations of $471.8 million.
2. Missed Q4 2025 EPS guidance: The company's GAAP Earnings Per Share (EPS) guidance for Q4 CY2025 was set at $0.25 at the midpoint, missing analyst estimates by 17.4%.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GEO Return | -39% | -10% | 41% | -1% | 158% | -41% | 17% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | 15% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GEO Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | 33% | 50% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GEO Max Drawdown | -44% | -41% | -32% | -37% | -3% | -48% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | -20% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CXW, MMS, AMTM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GEO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 248 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -53.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,357 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -61.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 156.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,870 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -65.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 188.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,425 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to WM, CWST, CECO, FTEK, MDRN
In The Past
GEO's stock fell -45.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/15/2021. A -45.4% loss requires a 83.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to GEO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.3% | -2.3% | -14.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.3% | -2.3% | -14.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for GEO
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 24.07 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.7 |
| Rev LTM | 3,981 |
| Op Inc LTM | 349 |
| FCF LTM | 240 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 176 |
| CFO LTM | 332 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 250 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.7 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 8.2 |
| P/E | 18.0 |
| P/CFO | 11.4 |
| Total Yield | 6.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 10.9% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 16.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 53.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 16.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -16.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States (U.S.) Secure Services | 1,518 | 1,438 | 1,489 | 1,571 | 1,602 |
| Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services | 426 | 496 | 279 | 242 | |
| Reentry Services | 275 | 255 | 275 | 309 | 614 |
| International Services | 194 | 187 | 214 | 228 | 232 |
| Facility Construction and Design | 30 | ||||
| Total | 2,413 | 2,377 | 2,257 | 2,350 | 2,478 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States (U.S.) Secure Services | 270 | 281 | 293 | 299 | 323 |
| Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services | 213 | 238 | 127 | 97 | |
| Reentry Services | 49 | 43 | 50 | 7 | 147 |
| International Services | 12 | 19 | 22 | 20 | 17 |
| General and administrative expense | -191 | -197 | -204 | -193 | -186 |
| Facility Construction and Design | 0 | ||||
| Total | 352 | 384 | 288 | 229 | 300 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States (U.S.) Secure Services | 2,391 | 2,371 | 2,433 | 2,529 | 2,619 |
| Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services | 512 | 536 | 483 | 401 | |
| Reentry Services | 478 | 572 | 567 | 657 | 1,113 |
| Restricted cash and investments, current and non-current | 136 | 112 | 96 | 64 | 63 |
| Cash | 94 | 95 | 506 | 284 | 32 |
| International Services | 77 | 66 | 452 | 488 | 82 |
| Deferred income tax assets | 9 | 8 | 37 | 36 | |
| Facility Construction and Design | 372 | ||||
| Total | 3,696 | 3,760 | 4,537 | 4,460 | 4,318 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | -8.3% | -11.2% | -0.2% |
| 8/6/2025 | -11.5% | -19.5% | -18.2% |
| 2/27/2025 | 6.1% | -0.4% | 17.9% |
| 11/13/2024 | 2.5% | 9.2% | 7.6% |
| 8/12/2024 | -3.0% | 4.2% | -1.1% |
| 5/13/2024 | 0.3% | 3.8% | -2.1% |
| 2/22/2024 | -0.7% | 3.6% | 23.5% |
| 11/13/2023 | 3.1% | 3.5% | 9.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 3.6% | 14.7% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -5.1% | -3.5% |
| Max Positive | 6.1% | 11.4% | 37.7% |
| Max Negative | -11.5% | -19.5% | -28.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | ZOLEY GEORGE C | Executive Chairman | 9102025 | Sell | 20.51 | 31,176 | 639,345 | 80,251,489 | Form |
| 1 | ZOLEY GEORGE C | Executive Chairman | 9082025 | Sell | 21.05 | 31,177 | 656,307 | 83,690,524 | Form |
| 2 | ZOLEY GEORGE C | Executive Chairman | 9022025 | Sell | 20.81 | 10,480 | 218,089 | 218,089 | Form |
| 3 | ZOLEY GEORGE C | Executive Chairman | 8282025 | Sell | 20.90 | 10,480 | 219,032 | 657,096 | Form |
| 4 | ZOLEY GEORGE C | Executive Chairman | 8252025 | Sell | 21.38 | 25,000 | 534,575 | 86,234,496 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |