GEO (GEO)


Market Price (7/22/2026): $31.23 | Market Cap: $4.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services

GEO (GEO)


Market Price (7/22/2026): $31.23
Market Cap: $4.1 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Public Safety & Justice. Themes include Correctional Facility Management, Electronic Monitoring & Supervision, and Rehabilitation & Reintegration Services.

Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%

Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1%

Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 75%

Key risks
GEO key risks include [1] political and activist opposition resulting in government contract cancellations and major banks denying financing, Show more.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.6%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Public Safety & Justice. Themes include Correctional Facility Management, Electronic Monitoring & Supervision, and Rehabilitation & Reintegration Services.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%
3 Not cash flow generative
FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1%
4 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 75%
5 Key risks
GEO key risks include [1] political and activist opposition resulting in government contract cancellations and major banks denying financing, Show more.

GEO in ETFs

Weight = GEO's share of each fund

VTI0.01%
ITOT0.01%
IWM0.12%
IJR0.21%
VB0.04%
VIOV0.42%
SLYV0.42%
IJS0.41%
+7 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 7/21/2026

GEO (GEO) stock has gained about 85% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. The GEO Group's strong fiscal Q1 2026 financial results significantly surpassed analyst expectations, leading to an upward revision of its full-year 2026 guidance. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.29 for fiscal Q1 2026, beating the consensus estimate of $0.19 by $0.10, representing a 52.63% positive surprise. Revenue for the quarter reached $705.21 million, exceeding analyst estimates of $688.89 million and marking a 16.6% increase over fiscal Q1 2025. Following this performance, on May 6, 2026, GEO increased its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance for Net Income Attributable to GEO Operations to a range of $153 million to $166 million, or $1.15 to $1.25 per diluted share, on annual revenues of $2.95 billion to $3.10 billion.

2. Significant new contract awards and increased utilization of existing facilities, particularly with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), bolstered future revenue prospects. In July 2026, GEO Group secured a five-year support services contract with ICE to activate an 1,188-bed federal immigration processing center at the Big Horn Facility in Colorado. This builds on earlier momentum, as management noted in February 2026 that contracts awarded since the beginning of 2025 represented up to approximately $520 million in new incremental annualized revenues. Additionally, the company's managed ICE bed capacity has grown, with the census across active ICE facilities increasing to approximately 24,000 by February 2026, the highest level recorded. A new two-year contract for skip tracing services with ICE, valued at up to $60 million annually, commenced in March 2026.

Show more
Updated on 7/21/2026

GEO (GEO) stock has gained about 85% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. The GEO Group's strong fiscal Q1 2026 financial results significantly surpassed analyst expectations, leading to an upward revision of its full-year 2026 guidance. The company reported earnings per share (EPS) of $0.29 for fiscal Q1 2026, beating the consensus estimate of $0.19 by $0.10, representing a 52.63% positive surprise. Revenue for the quarter reached $705.21 million, exceeding analyst estimates of $688.89 million and marking a 16.6% increase over fiscal Q1 2025. Following this performance, on May 6, 2026, GEO increased its full-year fiscal 2026 guidance for Net Income Attributable to GEO Operations to a range of $153 million to $166 million, or $1.15 to $1.25 per diluted share, on annual revenues of $2.95 billion to $3.10 billion.

2. Significant new contract awards and increased utilization of existing facilities, particularly with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), bolstered future revenue prospects. In July 2026, GEO Group secured a five-year support services contract with ICE to activate an 1,188-bed federal immigration processing center at the Big Horn Facility in Colorado. This builds on earlier momentum, as management noted in February 2026 that contracts awarded since the beginning of 2025 represented up to approximately $520 million in new incremental annualized revenues. Additionally, the company's managed ICE bed capacity has grown, with the census across active ICE facilities increasing to approximately 24,000 by February 2026, the highest level recorded. A new two-year contract for skip tracing services with ICE, valued at up to $60 million annually, commenced in March 2026.

3. The company's ongoing share repurchase program demonstrated management's confidence and provided support for the stock price. During fiscal Q1 2026 (which ended March 31, 2026), GEO repurchased approximately 3.6 million shares of its common stock at an aggregate cost of around $50 million. As of March 31, 2026, the company had repurchased approximately 8.5 million shares totaling about $141 million under its $500 million share repurchase authorization.

4. Positive sentiment from financial analysts, reflected in upgrades and increased price targets, contributed to investor confidence. In June 2026, Northland Securities raised its price target for GEO from $30.00 to $40.00 and reiterated an "outperform" rating. Similarly, Wall Street Zen upgraded GEO from a "hold" to a "buy" rating in June 2026. Noble Financial also increased its fiscal year 2026 EPS estimates for GEO to $1.24 from $1.23 in July 2026. These revisions collectively point to a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating with an average price target of $36.50.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 85.8% change in GEO stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 68.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)33120267212026Change
Stock Price ($)16.8131.2385.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,6312,7313.8%
Net Income Margin (%)9.7%10.0%3.4%
P/E Multiple9.015.268.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1361332.5%
Cumulative Contribution85.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 7/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GEO85.8% 
Market (SPY)15.1%13.8%
Sector (XLI)10.5%10.7%

Fundamental Drivers

The 93.7% change in GEO stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 61.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)123120257212026Change
Stock Price ($)16.1231.2393.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,5312,7317.9%
Net Income Margin (%)9.4%10.0%6.3%
P/E Multiple9.415.261.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1381334.3%
Cumulative Contribution93.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 7/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GEO93.7% 
Market (SPY)10.0%21.3%
Sector (XLI)15.5%17.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 30.4% change in GEO stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 739.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)63020257212026Change
Stock Price ($)23.9531.2330.4%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,4232,73112.7%
Net Income Margin (%)1.2%10.0%739.6%
P/E Multiple113.815.2-86.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1371333.4%
Cumulative Contribution30.4%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2025 to 7/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GEO30.4% 
Market (SPY)22.1%20.3%
Sector (XLI)22.4%20.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The 336.2% change in GEO stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/21/2026 was primarily driven by a 181.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020237212026Change
Stock Price ($)7.1631.23336.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,4342,73112.2%
Net Income Margin (%)6.6%10.0%50.6%
P/E Multiple5.415.2181.8%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)121133-8.4%
Cumulative Contribution336.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2023 to 7/21/2026
ReturnCorrelation
GEO336.2% 
Market (SPY)74.8%31.8%
Sector (XLI)73.4%32.1%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
GEO Return-10%41%-1%158%-42%90%256%
Peers Return31%5%21%2%14%2%98%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%9%98%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GEO Win Rate50%42%50%58%42%71% 
Peers Win Rate58%46%58%33%50%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%43% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GEO Max Drawdown-43%-35%-43%-33%-59%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-33%-22%-28%-26%-37% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CXW, MMS, AMTM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/21/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventGEOS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-17.4%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven21.0%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven9 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-19.8%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven24.7%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven70 days18 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-41.2%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven70.0%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven230 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-33.1%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven49.5%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven155 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-40.6%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven68.3%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven1474 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-20.8%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven26.3%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven60 days105 days

Compare to CXW, MMS, AMTM

In The Past

GEO's stock fell -17.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventGEOS&P 500
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-41.2%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven70.0%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven230 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-33.1%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven49.5%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven155 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-40.6%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven68.3%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven1474 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-20.8%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven26.3%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven60 days105 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-22.7%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven29.3%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven99 days15 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-60.3%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven152.1%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven1317 days1085 days

Compare to CXW, MMS, AMTM

In The Past

GEO's stock fell -17.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 21.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About GEO (GEO)

GEO Group (GEO) is a global provider of diversified government-contracted services for the correctional and detention management sector. The company owns, leases, and manages a network of secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers. Its operations span the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom, serving various governmental agencies in managing individuals within the justice system.

The core of GEO's business involves comprehensive secure facility management, encompassing security, administration, and essential services such as food and education. Beyond containment, the company also provides rehabilitation and care through its "GEO Continuum of Care" platform, offering programs like counseling, substance abuse treatment, academic education, and vocational training to support successful reentry into society. Additionally, GEO offers extensive community-based services, including electronic monitoring for parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants using technologies like GPS and alcohol monitoring, as well as secure transportation and support services such as temporary housing and employment assistance for individuals transitioning back into the community. GEO serves approximately 250,000 offenders and pretrial defendants annually.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The GEO Group is like a Marriott or Hilton, but for prisons and immigration detention centers.

For its electronic monitoring services, GEO is like ADT, but for individuals under legal supervision in the community.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Secure Facility Management: GEO owns, leases, and manages secure facilities, processing centers, and reentry centers for various government agencies.
  • Rehabilitation and Treatment Services: The company offers comprehensive programs including counseling, education, and treatment for substance abuse and cognitive behavioral issues.
  • Reentry Services: GEO provides community-based programs, temporary housing, employment assistance, and supervision to aid individuals in transitioning back into society.
  • Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services: The company offers electronic monitoring devices and evidence-based supervision for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants.
  • Secure Transportation Services: GEO provides specialized secure transportation for individuals within the justice system.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The major customers of GEO are governmental entities. The company does not primarily sell to other companies or individuals. Its services, which include secure facility management, electronic monitoring, and reentry services, are contracted by various government agencies. Here are the categories of its major customers:
  • U.S. Federal Government Agencies: Including entities such as the U.S. Marshals Service, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and the Federal Bureau of Prisons.
  • U.S. State and Local Government Agencies: Encompassing state departments of corrections, county sheriff's departments, and municipal justice systems across various states.
  • International Government Agencies: Government entities and justice ministries in countries where GEO operates, such as Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom.

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George C. Zoley
Executive Chairman

George C. Zoley is the founder of The GEO Group, Inc. and has served as its Chairman and Chief Executive Officer since the company went public in 1994. He established The GEO Group as a division of The Wackenhut Corporation in 1984, then named Wackenhut Corrections Corporation. Prior to founding GEO Group, he held roles as manager, director, and vice president of government services at Wackenhut. He also served as the CEO of Cornell Companies Inc. starting in August 2010. Zoley holds a bachelor's degree, a master's degree in public administration from Florida Atlantic University, and a doctorate in Public Administration from Nova Southeastern University. He is scheduled to step down as Executive Chairman on June 30, 2026, and will continue as an advisor to the company and non-Executive Chairman of the Board.

Brian R. Evans
Chief Executive Officer

Brian R. Evans was appointed Chief Executive Officer of The GEO Group, Inc. effective January 1, 2024. He joined GEO in 2000 and has held increasingly senior positions within the company, including Vice President of Finance, Chief Accounting Officer, and Controller. He was named Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in 2009, a role he held for 14 years. Prior to joining GEO, Evans was an Audit Manager at Arthur Andersen LLP. He also served as a Lieutenant, Supply Corps Officer in the U.S. Navy. He earned a Bachelor's Degree in Accounting from the University of Notre Dame.

Shayn March
Acting Chief Financial Officer

Shayn March was appointed Acting Chief Financial Officer of The GEO Group, Inc. effective January 1, 2024. He joined the company in March 2009 as Vice President of Finance and Treasurer. March has 17 years of service with GEO in senior business management roles and will be appointed Chief Financial Officer effective April 1, 2026.

Wayne H. Calabrese
President and Chief Operating Officer

Wayne H. Calabrese was appointed President and Chief Operating Officer of The GEO Group, Inc. effective January 1, 2024. He originally joined GEO in 1989 as Vice President of Business Development and served in a range of increasingly senior positions, including Vice Chairman of the Board, President, and Chief Operating Officer until his retirement in December 2010. Following his retirement, he continued to work with GEO in a consulting capacity. Mr. Calabrese rejoined the company on a full-time basis in 2021 as head of the Legal Department, and in 2022, he was appointed Senior Vice President and Chief Operating Officer. Prior to his extensive career at GEO, Calabrese was a partner in an Akron, Ohio law firm and served as an Assistant City Law Director, Assistant County Prosecutor, and Legal Counsel and Director of Development for the Akron Metropolitan Housing Authority.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) faces several key risks to its business operations, primarily driven by its reliance on government contracts and the associated political and regulatory landscape.

Key Risks to The GEO Group, Inc.

  1. Reliance on Government Contracts and Political/Regulatory Risks: The GEO Group's business is heavily dependent on government contracts, particularly with federal agencies such as U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which accounted for nearly half of its projected 2025 revenue. This exposes the company to significant political and regulatory risks, including potential federal funding disruptions, shifts in immigration enforcement policies, and public or political opposition to public-private partnerships. Legislation in some states, like California and Washington, also aims to phase out such partnerships, further threatening the company's operations. A single political shift could reverse enforcement priorities, reduce detention populations, or lead to contract terminations.
  2. High Level of Indebtedness: The company carries a significant level of indebtedness, which poses a substantial financial risk. As of December 31, 2024, the total consolidated indebtedness was approximately $1.7 billion, excluding finance lease obligations. This high debt load could adversely affect GEO's financial condition and its ability to fulfill debt service obligations. Fluctuations in interest rates also present a market risk, potentially increasing debt service costs, as the company does not currently have interest rate protection agreements in place.
  3. Litigation and Reputational Exposure: The GEO Group is vulnerable to litigation and reputational damage stemming from ongoing lawsuits related to facility conditions, labor practices, and alleged abuses within detention facilities. Such legal challenges can result in volatile legal costs, potential contract losses, and a negative impact on the company's public image. Reports have highlighted issues such as recurring forced labor and wage theft allegations, as well as instances of U.S. citizens being detained by immigration agents.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The clear emerging threat for GEO is the increasing governmental policy shift, particularly in the United States, away from the use of privately operated correctional and detention facilities. This trend directly impacts GEO's core business model, which relies on securing and renewing contracts with government agencies to manage secure facilities.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The GEO Group, Inc. operates in several key markets, including secure facilities, electronic monitoring and supervision services, and reentry services. The addressable markets for these main products and services are as follows:

Secure Facilities (Private Correctional Facilities)

The global private prison service market was valued at approximately USD 8 billion in 2023 and is forecasted to grow to USD 12.5 billion by 2032, expanding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.5% during the forecast period. North America accounts for the largest share of this market, primarily driven by the United States. Specifically, the U.S. private prison contract services market was estimated at USD 6.45 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 6.83 billion in 2026, with a forecast to grow to USD 9.44 billion by 2032, exhibiting a CAGR of 5.59%. As of 2022, private for-profit prisons in the United States incarcerated 90,873 individuals, which represented 8% of the total state and federal prison population.

Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services

The global market for electronic offender monitoring solutions is estimated at USD 2.18 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 3.19 billion by 2030, at a CAGR of 7.91%. Another estimate places the market at USD 2.35 billion in 2026, projected to reach USD 3.42 billion by 2031 at a 7.82% CAGR. In North America, the market value for electronic monitoring reached US$ 1.1 billion in 2025. North America holds approximately 45% of the global market share for electronic offender monitoring solutions. The number of simultaneous participants in electronic monitoring programs in North America was about 564,000 in 2025, with a forecast to grow to 700,000 by 2030.

Reentry Services

The market size for reentry services can be partially represented by the broader Offender Management System Market, which includes rehabilitation and reentry functionalities. The global Offender Management System Market was valued at USD 2,489.12 million in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 4,351.63 million by 2032, with a CAGR of 6.73%. In North America, this market segment was valued at USD 1,037.20 million in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 1,818.53 million by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 6.8%. The United States sees over 600,000 individuals released from state and federal prisons annually, highlighting a significant need for reentry programs and services.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) over the next 2-3 years:

  1. New and Expanded Government Contracts: The GEO Group has recently secured significant new or expanded contracts, particularly with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which are projected to generate substantial annualized revenues. For example, in 2025, the company secured new or expanded contracts expected to generate up to approximately $520 million in annualized revenues, marking its most successful year for new business wins. This trend is anticipated to continue, supported by federal funding for immigration enforcement and detention, including $45 billion earmarked for ICE detention, creating a multi-year runway for increased facility activations and new contract acquisitions.
  2. Increased Utilization of Existing and Idle Facility Capacity: GEO is strategically positioned to capitalize on the U.S. government's objective to activate a greater number of detention beds. The company has approximately 6,000 available high-security idle beds that could generate over $300 million in annualized revenues if brought to full capacity. The activation of five ICE facilities in 2025 significantly increased GEO's managed ICE bed capacity, with the census across active ICE facilities steadily rising to approximately 24,000, representing the highest levels in the company's history.
  3. Shift Towards Higher-Priced Electronic Monitoring Services: Within its Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services segment, GEO is experiencing a strategic shift. While usage of the SmartLink mobile app in the Intensive Supervision Appearance Program (ISAP) has declined, there has been a steady increase in the utilization of more intensive and higher-priced monitoring devices, such as ankle monitors. This change in service mix is expected to boost revenues and earnings generated under the ISAP contract, even if the overall volume of individuals being monitored remains constant.
  4. Growth in Reentry Services: The company's Reentry Services segment has shown recent growth. In the fourth quarter of 2023, revenues from residential reentry centers and non-residential reentry programs increased by 11% and 32%, respectively, year-over-year. Continued growth in non-residential programs is also highlighted as a segment trend.

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Share Repurchases

  • The GEO Group's Board of Directors increased its share repurchase authorization to $500 million in November 2025, extending the expiration date to December 31, 2029. Approximately $458.4 million of this authorization remained available as of November 6, 2025.
  • During the third quarter of 2025, the company repurchased approximately 1.97 million shares of common stock for an aggregate cost of approximately $41.6 million.
  • By year-end 2025, The GEO Group had repurchased approximately 4.94 million shares of common stock at an aggregate cost of about $90.6 million under its $500 million share repurchase authorization.

Share Issuance

  • In May 2024, The GEO Group retired $177.1 million in principal amount of 6.50% exchangeable senior notes due 2026, utilizing $177.1 million in cash and approximately 9.8 million shares of its common stock.

Outbound Investments

  • In November 2025, the company purchased the 770-bed Western Region Detention Facility in San Diego for approximately $60 million.
  • In December 2024, The GEO Group announced a $70 million investment in capital expenditures aimed at strengthening its capabilities to provide expanded detention capacity, secure transportation, and electronic monitoring services to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

Capital Expenditures

  • For the full year 2026, The GEO Group anticipates total capital expenditures to be between $120 million and $155 million, including assumptions for modest organic growth.
  • The projected capital expenditures for the full year 2025 were estimated between $120 million and $155 million, with a primary focus on growth (expected $10 million to $25 million), technology (expected $30 million to $35 million), and facility maintenance (expected $80 million to $95 million).
  • In December 2024, the company committed $70 million in capital expenditures to enhance its services for ICE, specifically for expanded detention capacity, secure transportation, and electronic monitoring.

Better Bets vs. GEO (GEO)

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GEOCXWMMSAMTMMedian
NameGEO CoreCivicMaximus Amentum  
Mkt Price31.2332.0856.6620.9831.66
Mkt Cap4.13.23.15.13.7
Rev LTM2,7312,3375,31814,2014,025
Op Inc LTM323243583449386
FCF LTM-3126372439199
FCF 3Y Avg99108259192150
CFO LTM158164412465288
CFO 3Y Avg218207343212215

Growth & Margins

GEOCXWMMSAMTMMedian
NameGEO CoreCivicMaximus Amentum  
Rev Chg LTM12.7%19.9%-1.4%26.1%16.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.1%8.4%3.8%-4.1%
Rev Chg Q16.6%25.8%-4.1%-0.4%8.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.8%5.7%-1.0%-0.1%1.9%
Op Inc Chg LTM11.0%34.0%18.2%55.4%26.1%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg-5.8%13.5%25.6%-13.5%
Op Mgn LTM11.8%10.4%11.0%3.2%10.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg12.6%9.7%9.3%2.6%9.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.6%0.4%0.0%0.2%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM5.8%7.0%7.7%3.3%6.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.8%10.1%6.5%1.5%7.6%
FCF/Rev LTM-1.1%1.1%7.0%3.1%2.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.1%5.5%4.9%1.3%4.5%

Valuation

GEOCXWMMSAMTMMedian
NameGEO CoreCivicMaximus Amentum  
Mkt Cap4.13.23.15.13.7
P/S1.51.40.60.41.0
P/Op Inc12.813.05.311.412.1
P/EBIT7.913.15.39.98.9
P/E15.224.58.234.619.8
P/CFO26.219.37.511.015.2
Total Yield6.6%4.1%14.4%2.9%5.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%2.2%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.8%5.8%7.3%-5.8%
D/E0.40.40.50.80.5
Net D/E0.40.40.50.70.4

Returns

GEOCXWMMSAMTMMedian
NameGEO CoreCivicMaximus Amentum  
1M Rtn6.7%11.0%1.7%-3.1%4.2%
3M Rtn64.1%56.0%-16.1%-24.1%19.9%
6M Rtn75.9%59.0%-40.4%-39.0%10.0%
12M Rtn29.5%58.5%-18.8%-15.2%7.2%
3Y Rtn343.0%248.7%-32.3%-34.9%108.2%
1M Excs Rtn6.5%10.9%1.5%-3.3%4.0%
3M Excs Rtn60.6%49.9%-22.6%-29.7%13.7%
6M Excs Rtn69.3%52.1%-50.0%-47.9%2.1%
12M Excs Rtn8.1%34.9%-38.1%-36.1%-14.0%
3Y Excs Rtn261.7%176.1%-98.1%-101.6%39.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
United States (U.S.) Secure Services1,8271,6041,5181,4381,489
Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services321333426496279
Reentry Services287278275255275
International Services197209194187214
Total2,6322,4242,4132,3772,257


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
United States (U.S.) Secure Services329303270281293
Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services125147213238127
Reentry Services6158494350
International Services1614121922
Contingent litigation reserve-38    
General and administrative expense-236-213-191-197-204
Total257310352384288


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
United States (U.S.) Secure Services2,5482,3562,3912,3712,433
Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services519505512536483
Reentry Services440465478572567
Restricted cash and investments, current and non-current18214813611296
International Services76727766452
Cash69779495506
Deferred income tax assets91098 
Total3,8443,6323,6963,7604,537


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$31.23 
Market Cap ($ Bil)4.1 
First Trading Date07/28/1994 
Distance from 52W High0.0% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$26.75$19.17
DMA Trendupup
Distance from DMA16.7%62.9%
 3M1YR
Volatility53.7%51.4%
Downside Capture-41.2190.37
Upside Capture186.73101.39
Correlation (SPY)15.6%21.0%
GEO Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta-0.360.780.550.890.851.11
Up Beta-1.771.690.680.750.591.06
Down Beta-0.61-0.98-0.990.490.611.12
Up Capture183%305%208%189%104%225%
Bmk +ve Days11244067140429
Stock +ve Days17253972127369
Down Capture-137%-33%-25%49%101%99%
Bmk -ve Days10172358112321
Stock -ve Days4152351121370

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with GEO
GEO27.5%51.3%0.64-
Sector ETF (XLI)19.3%16.6%0.8821.0%
Equity (SPY)20.3%12.6%1.1921.1%
Gold (GLD)21.6%28.1%0.694.6%
Commodities (DBC)31.4%19.1%1.30-8.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)15.0%14.0%0.7618.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-44.6%42.9%-1.2511.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with GEO
GEO33.9%51.4%0.75-
Sector ETF (XLI)13.4%17.6%0.5931.9%
Equity (SPY)12.9%17.1%0.5830.8%
Gold (GLD)17.3%18.4%0.761.6%
Commodities (DBC)8.9%19.5%0.353.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.9%18.9%0.0522.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)14.9%53.4%0.4618.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with GEO
GEO7.2%51.8%0.34-
Sector ETF (XLI)13.9%20.0%0.6135.2%
Equity (SPY)15.2%17.9%0.7232.1%
Gold (GLD)11.2%16.1%0.570.2%
Commodities (DBC)7.2%17.9%0.328.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.1%20.7%0.2131.8%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)58.7%66.2%0.9910.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date6302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9.2 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 6152026-6.3%
Average Daily Volume2.8 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.3 days
Basic Shares Quantity132.6 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares6.9%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/9/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/6/202620.9%16.6%37.0%
2/12/2026-14.9%-3.2%-8.1%
11/6/2025-8.3%-11.2%-0.2%
8/6/2025-11.5%-19.5%-18.2%
5/7/2025-10.0%-12.4%-13.7%
2/27/20256.1%-0.4%17.9%
11/13/20242.5%9.2%7.6%
8/12/2024-3.0%4.2%-1.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111311
# Negative141214
Median Positive2.4%3.8%14.7%
Median Negative-3.0%-5.2%-4.5%
Max Positive20.9%16.6%37.7%
Max Negative-14.9%-19.5%-21.3%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
5/6/202620.9%16.6%37.0%
2/12/2026-14.9%-3.2%-8.1%
11/6/2025-8.3%-11.2%-0.2%
8/6/2025-11.5%-19.5%-18.2%
5/7/2025-10.0%-12.4%-13.7%
2/27/20256.1%-0.4%17.9%
11/13/20242.5%9.2%7.6%
8/12/2024-3.0%4.2%-1.1%
5/13/20240.3%3.8%-2.1%
2/22/2024-0.7%3.6%23.5%
11/13/20233.1%3.5%9.2%
8/15/2023-2.5%-2.2%2.9%
5/1/2023-2.0%8.8%-1.6%
2/21/2023-3.1%-6.6%-19.2%
11/2/20222.3%1.8%37.7%
8/8/2022-2.6%11.3%24.0%
5/9/2022-7.6%-10.7%-5.6%
2/24/20220.3%-0.7%-3.0%
1/6/2022-0.6%-0.4%-15.3%
11/10/20212.4%1.1%-21.3%
8/10/20213.5%11.4%-2.0%
5/14/20212.1%-10.2%6.8%
2/22/20210.0%1.8%3.7%
11/4/2020-6.5%3.1%14.7%
8/12/2020-2.4%-3.7%-3.4%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111311
# Negative141214
Median Positive2.4%3.8%14.7%
Median Negative-3.0%-5.2%-4.5%
Max Positive20.9%16.6%37.7%
Max Negative-14.9%-19.5%-21.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202502/25/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/07/202510-Q
12/31/202402/28/202510-K
09/30/202411/12/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/08/202410-Q
12/31/202302/29/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/03/202310-Q
12/31/202202/27/202310-K
09/30/202211/08/202210-Q
06/30/202208/08/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/07/202610-Q
12/31/202502/25/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/07/202510-Q
12/31/202402/28/202510-K
09/30/202411/12/202410-Q
06/30/202408/08/202410-Q
03/31/202405/08/202410-Q
12/31/202302/29/202410-K
09/30/202311/08/202310-Q
06/30/202308/09/202310-Q
03/31/202305/03/202310-Q
12/31/202202/27/202310-K
09/30/202211/08/202210-Q
06/30/202208/08/202210-Q
03/31/202205/05/202210-Q
12/31/202102/28/202210-K
09/30/202111/05/202110-Q
06/30/202108/05/202110-Q
03/31/202105/10/202110-Q
12/31/202002/16/202110-K
09/30/202011/06/202010-Q
06/30/202008/06/202010-Q
03/31/202005/06/202010-Q
12/31/201902/26/202010-K
09/30/201911/07/201910-Q
06/30/201908/02/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/12/2026

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 Revenue715.00 Mil720.00 Mil725.00 Mil5.1% Higher NewGuidance: 685.00 Mil for Q1 2026
Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA130.00 Mil132.50 Mil135.00 Mil21.0% Higher NewGuidance: 109.50 Mil for Q1 2026
2026 Revenue2.95 Bil3.02 Bil3.10 Bil0.8% RaisedGuidance: 3.00 Bil for 2026
2026 Adjusted EBITDA525.00 Mil535.00 Mil545.00 Mil7.0% RaisedGuidance: 500.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Capital Expenditures137.50 Mil150.00 Mil162.50 Mil9.1% RaisedGuidance: 137.50 Mil for 2026

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/12/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 GAAP Net Income per diluted share0.170.180.19-28.0% Lower NewGuidance: 0.25 for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Quarterly Revenue680.00 Mil685.00 Mil690.00 Mil3.2% Higher NewGuidance: 663.50 Mil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA107.00 Mil109.50 Mil112.00 Mil-10.2% Lower NewGuidance: 122.00 Mil for Q4 2025
2026 GAAP Net Income per diluted share0.991.031.07-43.7% Lower NewGuidance: 1.83 for 2025
2026 Annual Revenue2.90 Bil3.00 Bil3.10 Bil   
2026 Adjusted EBITDA490.00 Mil500.00 Mil510.00 Mil8.7% Higher NewGuidance: 460.00 Mil for 2025
2026 Capital Expenditures120.00 Mil137.50 Mil155.00 Mil-32.1% Lower NewGuidance: 202.50 Mil for 2025

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2025 Revenue651.00 Mil663.50 Mil676.00 Mil-0.3% LoweredGuidance: 665.50 Mil for Q4 2025
Q4 2025 GAAP Net Income per diluted share0.230.250.27   
Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA117.00 Mil122.00 Mil127.00 Mil   
2025 GAAP Net Income per diluted share1.811.831.85-10.3% LoweredGuidance: 2.04 for 2025
2025 Adjusted Net Income per diluted share0.840.850.87   
2025 Adjusted EBITDA455.00 Mil460.00 Mil465.00 Mil-3.7% LoweredGuidance: 477.50 Mil for 2025
2025 Capital Expenditures200.00 Mil202.50 Mil205.00 Mil-1.2% LoweredGuidance: 205.00 Mil for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 4/26/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Kernan, Scott Michael DirectSell306202615.246,633101,087412,425Form
2Zoley, George CExecutive ChairmanDirectSell910202521.5231,176670,92982,874,150Form
3Zoley, George CExecutive ChairmanDirectSell910202520.5231,176639,79479,668,046Form
4Zoley, George CExecutive ChairmanDirectSell910202520.5131,176639,34580,251,489Form
5Zoley, George CExecutive ChairmanDirectSell908202521.0029,876627,24782,840,643Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Kernan, Scott Michael DirectSell306202615.246,633101,087412,425Form
2Zoley, George CExecutive ChairmanDirectSell910202521.5231,176670,92982,874,150Form
3Zoley, George CExecutive ChairmanDirectSell910202520.5231,176639,79479,668,046Form
4Zoley, George CExecutive ChairmanDirectSell910202520.5131,176639,34580,251,489Form
5Zoley, George CExecutive ChairmanDirectSell908202521.0029,876627,24782,840,643Form
6Zoley, George CExecutive ChairmanDirectSell908202521.0531,177656,30783,690,524Form
7Zoley, George CExecutive Chairmanthe Holly A. Meehan TrustSell902202520.5610,480  Form
8Zoley, George CExecutive Chairmanthe Christopher N. Zoley TrustSell902202520.5610,490  Form
9Zoley, George CExecutive Chairmanthe Holly A. Meehan TrustSell902202520.8110,480218,089218,089Form
10Zoley, George CExecutive Chairmanthe Christopher N. Zoley TrustSell902202520.8110,490218,297218,297Form
11Zoley, George CExecutive Chairmanthe Holly A. Meehan TrustSell828202520.6910,480216,831433,662Form
12Zoley, George CExecutive Chairmanthe Christopher N. Zoley TrustSell828202520.6910,490217,038434,076Form
13Zoley, George CExecutive Chairmanthe Holly A. Meehan TrustSell828202520.9010,480219,032657,096Form
14Zoley, George CExecutive Chairmanthe Christopher N. Zoley TrustSell828202520.9010,490219,241657,723Form
15Zoley, George CExecutive Chairmanthe Holly A. Meehan TrustSell825202521.6210,480226,599906,394Form
16Zoley, George CExecutive Chairmanthe Christopher N. Zoley TrustSell825202521.6810,490227,371909,483Form
17Zoley, George CExecutive ChairmanDirectSell825202521.3726,068557,04785,620,989Form
18Zoley, George CExecutive ChairmanDirectSell825202521.3825,000534,57586,234,496Form
19Zoley, George CExecutive ChairmanDirectSell820202521.3725,000534,17586,704,145Form
20Zoley, George CExecutive ChairmanDirectSell820202521.6625,000541,57588,446,845Form
21Zoley, George CExecutive ChairmanDirectSell820202521.0425,000525,92586,416,904Form
22March, Shayn PEVP of Finance and TreasurerDirectSell331202530.007,500225,0002,024,070Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Jul 22, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd$76.4 Mil15.4%5TRIM -19.5%13F
Continental General Insurance Co$96.0 Mil13.8%11ADD +21.9%13F
KCM Capital Inc$33.5 Mil6.3%31ADD +36.6%13F
Findell Capital Management LLC$14.7 Mil4.3%17ADD +34.6%13F
Philosophy Capital Management LLC$28.9 Mil3.4%36ADD +5.7%13F
Park West Asset Management LLC$24.5 Mil2.2%48New13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Park West Asset Management LLC$24.5 Mil2.2%48New13F
KCM Capital Inc$33.5 Mil6.3%31ADD +36.6%13F
Findell Capital Management LLC$14.7 Mil4.3%17ADD +34.6%13F
Continental General Insurance Co$96.0 Mil13.8%11ADD +21.9%13F
Philosophy Capital Management LLC$28.9 Mil3.4%36ADD +5.7%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Carronade Capital Management, LP$16.0 Mil1.5%25ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Highland Peak Capital, LLC$8.1 Mil3.1%12ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Wolf Hill Capital Management, LP$6.4 Mil0.7%22ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd$76.4 Mil15.4%5TRIM -19.5%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Continental General Insurance Co$96.0 Mil13.8%11ADD +21.9%13F
Turiya Advisors Asia Ltd$76.4 Mil15.4%5TRIM -19.5%13F
KCM Capital Inc$33.5 Mil6.3%31ADD +36.6%13F
Philosophy Capital Management LLC$28.9 Mil3.4%36ADD +5.7%13F
Park West Asset Management LLC$24.5 Mil2.2%48New13F
Findell Capital Management LLC$14.7 Mil4.3%17ADD +34.6%13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/21/2026