Tearsheet

GEO (GEO)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $16.58 | Market Cap: $2.3 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services

GEO (GEO)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $16.58
Market Cap: $2.3 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Environmental & Facilities Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -16%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 51%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32%
  Key risks
GEO key risks include [1] political and activist opposition resulting in government contract cancellations and major banks denying financing, Show more.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Public Safety & Justice. Themes include Correctional Facility Management, Electronic Monitoring & Supervision, and Rehabilitation & Reintegration Services.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 8.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.2%
1 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 48%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Public Safety & Justice. Themes include Correctional Facility Management, Electronic Monitoring & Supervision, and Rehabilitation & Reintegration Services.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -16%
5 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 51%
6 Key risks
GEO key risks include [1] political and activist opposition resulting in government contract cancellations and major banks denying financing, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

GEO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points explaining the approximate -20% movement in GEO's stock price between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025: 1. Lower-than-expected revenue guidance for Q4 2025 and full-year EBITDA: Despite beating Q3 2025 revenue estimates, The GEO Group provided Q4 CY2025 revenue guidance of $663.5 million at the midpoint, which fell below analyst estimates of $696.2 million. Additionally, the full-year EBITDA guidance of $460 million at the midpoint was also lower than analyst expectations of $471.8 million.

2. Missed Q4 2025 EPS guidance: The company's GAAP Earnings Per Share (EPS) guidance for Q4 CY2025 was set at $0.25 at the midpoint, missing analyst estimates by 17.4%.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
GEO Return-39%-10%41%-1%158%-41%17%
Peers Return15%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
GEO Win Rate33%50%42%50%58%42% 
Peers Win Rate33%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
GEO Max Drawdown-44%-41%-32%-37%-3%-48% 
Peers Max Drawdown-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CXW, MMS, AMTM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventGEOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-45.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven83.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven248 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-53.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven115.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,357 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-61.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven156.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,870 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-65.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven188.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,425 days1,480 days

Compare to WM, CWST, CECO, FTEK, MDRN


In The Past

GEO's stock fell -45.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/15/2021. A -45.4% loss requires a 83.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About GEO (GEO)

Better Bets than GEO (GEO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to GEO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.3%-2.3%-14.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.3%-2.3%-14.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for GEO

Peers to compare with:

Financials

GEOCXWMMSAMTMMedian
NameGEO CoreCivicMaximus Amentum  
Mkt Price16.5919.4788.5428.6724.07
Mkt Cap2.32.15.15.83.7
Rev LTM2,5312,0875,43114,3933,981
Op Inc LTM279203528418349
FCF LTM26113366516240
FCF 3Y Avg147153330199176
CFO LTM208234429543332
CFO 3Y Avg257244420219250

Growth & Margins

GEOCXWMMSAMTMMedian
NameGEO CoreCivicMaximus Amentum  
Rev Chg LTM4.4%5.7%2.4%71.6%5.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg3.1%4.2%5.5%-4.2%
Rev Chg Q13.1%18.1%0.2%77.4%15.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.2%4.4%0.0%13.5%3.8%
Op Mgn LTM11.0%9.7%9.7%2.9%9.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.3%9.7%8.3%2.6%9.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.5%-0.2%0.2%0.5%0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM8.2%11.2%7.9%3.8%8.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.5%12.4%8.0%1.7%9.2%
FCF/Rev LTM1.0%5.4%6.7%3.6%4.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg6.0%7.8%6.3%1.5%6.2%

Valuation

GEOCXWMMSAMTMMedian
NameGEO CoreCivicMaximus Amentum  
Mkt Cap2.32.15.15.83.7
P/S1.11.00.90.41.0
P/EBIT5.910.5--8.2
P/E11.919.916.188.218.0
P/CFO13.69.312.010.711.4
Total Yield8.4%5.0%7.5%1.1%6.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%1.3%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg11.3%10.4%--10.9%
D/E0.60.5--0.5
Net D/E0.50.5--0.5

Returns

GEOCXWMMSAMTMMedian
NameGEO CoreCivicMaximus Amentum  
1M Rtn13.6%20.0%13.0%33.4%16.8%
3M Rtn-23.2%-5.8%0.4%28.9%-2.7%
6M Rtn-31.4%-5.7%28.9%31.0%11.6%
12M Rtn-39.7%-9.0%28.1%33.3%9.6%
3Y Rtn53.6%70.8%29.4%-53.6%
1M Excs Rtn12.9%19.3%12.3%32.7%16.1%
3M Excs Rtn-25.9%-8.3%-1.7%27.4%-5.0%
6M Excs Rtn-43.7%-18.1%16.5%18.7%-0.8%
12M Excs Rtn-50.6%-22.1%17.8%13.3%-4.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-16.0%-0.7%-39.4%--16.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
United States (U.S.) Secure Services1,5181,4381,4891,5711,602
Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services426496279242 
Reentry Services275255275309614
International Services194187214228232
Facility Construction and Design    30
Total2,4132,3772,2572,3502,478


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
United States (U.S.) Secure Services270281293299323
Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services21323812797 
Reentry Services4943507147
International Services1219222017
General and administrative expense-191-197-204-193-186
Facility Construction and Design    0
Total352384288229300


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
United States (U.S.) Secure Services2,3912,3712,4332,5292,619
Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services512536483401 
Reentry Services4785725676571,113
Restricted cash and investments, current and non-current136112966463
Cash949550628432
International Services776645248882
Deferred income tax assets98 3736
Facility Construction and Design    372
Total3,6963,7604,5374,4604,318


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9,066,777
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520252.3%
Average Daily Volume1,823,057
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.97
Basic Shares Quantity138,283,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/2025-8.3%-11.2%-0.2%
8/6/2025-11.5%-19.5%-18.2%
2/27/20256.1%-0.4%17.9%
11/13/20242.5%9.2%7.6%
8/12/2024-3.0%4.2%-1.1%
5/13/20240.3%3.8%-2.1%
2/22/2024-0.7%3.6%23.5%
11/13/20233.1%3.5%9.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111111
# Negative121212
Median Positive2.3%3.6%14.7%
Median Negative-2.8%-5.1%-3.5%
Max Positive6.1%11.4%37.7%
Max Negative-11.5%-19.5%-28.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023809202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221108202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0ZOLEY GEORGE CExecutive Chairman9102025Sell20.5131,176639,34580,251,489Form
1ZOLEY GEORGE CExecutive Chairman9082025Sell21.0531,177656,30783,690,524Form
2ZOLEY GEORGE CExecutive Chairman9022025Sell20.8110,480218,089218,089Form
3ZOLEY GEORGE CExecutive Chairman8282025Sell20.9010,480219,032657,096Form
4ZOLEY GEORGE CExecutive Chairman8252025Sell21.3825,000534,57586,234,496Form