Tearsheet

Automatic Data Processing (ADP)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $260.58 | Market Cap: $105.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services

Automatic Data Processing (ADP)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $260.58
Market Cap: $105.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, Cybersecurity, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, Cybersecurity, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ADP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Automatic Data Processing (ADP) experienced an approximate 14% decline in its stock price between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, largely due to a combination of softening labor market conditions, broader economic uncertainties impacting hiring, and analyst downgrades. 1. Deteriorating Labor Market Conditions: Recent ADP National Employment Reports revealed a significant softening in the private sector job market. The August 2025 report indicated weaker job growth, and the September 2025 report showed a shedding of 32,000 private sector jobs, marking the steepest decline since March 2023. The November 2025 report further highlighted a decline of 32,000 private-sector payrolls, falling below expectations and representing the fourth negative month for private-sector job growth in six months. This trend, particularly affecting small businesses, manufacturing, and professional/business services, directly impacts ADP's core business of providing payroll and human capital management solutions.

2. Economic Uncertainty and Cautious Hiring Outlook: Throughout the period, HR executive surveys indicated persistent economic uncertainty, including the impact of reinstated tariffs. This led to a cautious approach to hiring, with a significant number of employers reluctant to commit to new hiring plans. McKinsey's HR Monitor Survey also noted an increase in layoffs and rising unemployment, alongside challenges for HR teams in managing labor costs. This overall subdued economic sentiment and reduced hiring activity created a challenging environment for ADP.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ADP Return6%43%-1%-0%28%-11%70%
Peers Return49%1%-30%55%-7%21%83%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ADP Win Rate67%67%50%50%75%40% 
Peers Win Rate69%54%44%62%50%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ADP Max Drawdown-36%-9%-20%-12%-0%-14% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-27%-39%-7%-23%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WDAY, PAYX, BR, STNE, ELCG. See ADP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventADPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-22.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven29.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven453 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven66.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven351 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-19.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven24.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven60 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-38.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven857 days1480 days

Compare to WDAY, PAYX, BR, STNE, ELCG


In The Past

Automatic Data Processing's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/2/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Automatic Data Processing (ADP)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ADP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Automatic Data Processing

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ADPWDAYPAYXBRSTNEELCGMedian
NameAutomati.Workday Paychex Broadrid.StoneCo ELC  
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Valuation

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Returns

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Employer Services12,98112,04310,96810,19510,087
Professional Employer Organization (PEO) Services6,2345,9845,5464,8184,512
Intercompany eliminations-12-15-15-8-8
Total19,20318,01216,49815,00514,590


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,467,952
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120250.6%
Average Daily Volume2,134,115
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.50
Basic Shares Quantity405,100,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024130202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023201202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023803202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023501202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022202202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021131202210-Q 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Rodriguez Carlos A 9152025Sell298.577221,4977,550,795Form
1D'Ambrosio ChristopherCorp. VP9112025Sell296.90597177,2493,129,691Form
2Bonarti Michael ACorporate Vice President9112025Sell298.438,7282,604,69724,032,995Form
3Rodriguez Carlos A 9082025Sell302.4525978,33511,238,642Form
4Michaud Brian L.Corp VP4022025Sell305.381,500458,0703,686,768Form