Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $260.58 | Market Cap: $105.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $260.58Market Cap: $105.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, Cybersecurity, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, Automation & Robotics, Cybersecurity, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ADP Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Automatic Data Processing (ADP) experienced an approximate 14% decline in its stock price between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025, largely due to a combination of softening labor market conditions, broader economic uncertainties impacting hiring, and analyst downgrades.
1. Deteriorating Labor Market Conditions: Recent ADP National Employment Reports revealed a significant softening in the private sector job market. The August 2025 report indicated weaker job growth, and the September 2025 report showed a shedding of 32,000 private sector jobs, marking the steepest decline since March 2023. The November 2025 report further highlighted a decline of 32,000 private-sector payrolls, falling below expectations and representing the fourth negative month for private-sector job growth in six months. This trend, particularly affecting small businesses, manufacturing, and professional/business services, directly impacts ADP's core business of providing payroll and human capital management solutions.
2. Economic Uncertainty and Cautious Hiring Outlook: Throughout the period, HR executive surveys indicated persistent economic uncertainty, including the impact of reinstated tariffs. This led to a cautious approach to hiring, with a significant number of employers reluctant to commit to new hiring plans. McKinsey's HR Monitor Survey also noted an increase in layoffs and rising unemployment, alongside challenges for HR teams in managing labor costs. This overall subdued economic sentiment and reduced hiring activity created a challenging environment for ADP.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ADP Return | 6% | 43% | -1% | -0% | 28% | -11% | 70% |
| Peers Return | 49% | 1% | -30% | 55% | -7% | 21% | 83% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ADP Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 50% | 50% | 75% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 69% | 54% | 44% | 62% | 50% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ADP Max Drawdown | -36% | -9% | -20% | -12% | -0% | -14% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -27% | -39% | -7% | -23% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WDAY, PAYX, BR, STNE, ELCG. See ADP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ADP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -22.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 453 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -39.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 66.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 351 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 60 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 857 days | 1480 days |
Compare to WDAY, PAYX, BR, STNE, ELCG
In The Past
Automatic Data Processing's stock fell -22.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/2/2022. A -22.6% loss requires a 29.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ADP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Automatic Data Processing
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1302025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2012024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5012023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1312022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Rodriguez Carlos A | 9152025 | Sell | 298.57 | 72 | 21,497 | 7,550,795 | Form | |
| 1 | D'Ambrosio Christopher | Corp. VP | 9112025 | Sell | 296.90 | 597 | 177,249 | 3,129,691 | Form |
| 2 | Bonarti Michael A | Corporate Vice President | 9112025 | Sell | 298.43 | 8,728 | 2,604,697 | 24,032,995 | Form |
| 3 | Rodriguez Carlos A | 9082025 | Sell | 302.45 | 259 | 78,335 | 11,238,642 | Form | |
| 4 | Michaud Brian L. | Corp VP | 4022025 | Sell | 305.38 | 1,500 | 458,070 | 3,686,768 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
