Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $149.87 | Market Cap: $20.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Air Freight & Logistics
Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $149.87Market Cap: $20.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Air Freight & Logistics
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, FCF Yield is 5.2% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.1%, Dist 3Y High is -2.1% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31% | Key risksEXPD key risks include [1] identified material weaknesses in its internal control over financial reporting. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Future of Freight, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Supply Chain Digitization, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8%, FCF Yield is 5.2% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Future of Freight, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Supply Chain Digitization, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.1%, Dist 3Y High is -2.1% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -31% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13% |
| Key risksEXPD key risks include [1] identified material weaknesses in its internal control over financial reporting. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EXPD Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) experienced a significant upward movement in its stock price, with an increase of approximately 26.91% over the last year leading up to December 2025, and 28.69% over the past 12 months as of December 15, 2025. This strong performance, aligning with the 24.9% movement you highlighted, can be attributed to several key factors:
1. Strong Financial Performance in Q4 2024: The company reported substantial growth in its fourth-quarter 2024 financial results, including a 54% increase in diluted earnings per share to $1.68, a 49% rise in net earnings attributable to shareholders to $236 million, and a 51% increase in operating income to $301 million. Revenues also saw a 30% jump to $3.0 billion, exceeding analyst estimates.
2. Significant Growth in Freight Volumes: Expeditors demonstrated robust operational growth in Q4 2024, with airfreight tonnage increasing by 11% and ocean container volume rising by 14% year-over-year. This was driven by strong demand from Asia, a surge in e-commerce business, and increased demand for technology products.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EXPD Return | 23% | 43% | -22% | 24% | -12% | 37% | 106% |
| Peers Return | 40% | 17% | -24% | 47% | 14% | 12% | 133% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EXPD Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 33% | 58% | 50% | 83% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 53% | 48% | 65% | 48% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EXPD Max Drawdown | -30% | -6% | -35% | 0% | -12% | -7% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -36% | -9% | -33% | -9% | -16% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UPS, FDX, CHRW, XPO, RLGT. See EXPD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EXPD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,135 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -32.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 131 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -19.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 99 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -55.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 632 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to FDX, CHRW, JBHT, FWRD, ELOG
In The Past
Expeditors International of Washington's stock fell -36.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/16/2021. A -36.0% loss requires a 56.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EXPD. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | EXPD | Expeditors International of Washington | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 25.4% | 31.4% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | EXPD | Expeditors International of Washington | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 25.4% | 31.4% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Expeditors International of Washington
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 147.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 19.8 |
| Rev LTM | 13,889 |
| Op Inc LTM | 957 |
| FCF LTM | 809 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 949 |
| CFO LTM | 913 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,013 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 0.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -8.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 19.8 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 13.9 |
| P/E | 18.3 |
| P/CFO | 17.0 |
| Total Yield | 6.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 7.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 19.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 24.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -0.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 59.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 17.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -12.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -15.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | 10.8% | 14.7% | 23.5% |
| 8/5/2025 | -0.5% | 0.1% | 3.0% |
| 5/6/2025 | -5.0% | 3.9% | 0.5% |
| 2/18/2025 | 3.9% | 2.6% | 3.1% |
| 11/5/2024 | 1.4% | -0.7% | 1.3% |
| 8/6/2024 | -4.3% | -1.8% | 3.2% |
| 5/7/2024 | -0.6% | 1.7% | 9.9% |
| 2/20/2024 | -6.9% | -3.9% | -5.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 16 |
| # Negative | 15 | 13 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% |
| Median Negative | -3.2% | -3.0% | -4.8% |
| Max Positive | 10.8% | 16.8% | 23.5% |
| Max Negative | -6.9% | -8.6% | -8.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11052024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8082023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5092022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3152022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11042021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |