Deere (DE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $481.98 | Market Cap: $130.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Deere (DE)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $481.98Market Cap: $130.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies, Automation & Robotics, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Machine Vision, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies, Automation & Robotics, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Machine Vision, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, falls within the future from my knowledge cutoff. However, the search results provide relevant information for Deere (DE) during this approximate time, particularly around its Q4 2025 earnings release on November 26, 2025. While a precise 1% stock movement cannot be pinpointed without access to real-time, minute-by-minute stock data for a future period, the search results highlight key events and sentiment that influenced Deere's stock around its earnings announcement and into early December 2025.
Here are key points regarding Deere's stock movement around the specified period:
1. Deere's Q4 2025 Earnings Report and Revenue Beat. Deere reported its fourth-quarter earnings for 2025 on November 26, 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) of $3.93, surpassing the forecasted $3.85. Revenue reached $12.4 billion, significantly beating the expected $9.82 billion, marking an 11% increase from the previous year. This positive revenue surprise could have contributed to upward stock movement.
2. Net Income Decline and Cautious Fiscal Year 2026 Outlook. Despite strong Q4 revenue, Deere's reported net income for the fourth quarter decreased to $1.1 billion, or $3.93 per diluted share, compared to $1.245 billion, or $4.55 per share, in the prior year's quarter. Furthermore, the company issued fiscal year 2026 net income guidance ranging from $4.00 to $4.75 billion, which implies EPS of $14.75 to $17.50 at the midpoint, falling short of the anticipated $19.40. This cautious outlook and projected decline in large agricultural equipment sales for 2026 caused investor apprehension.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DE Return | 58% | 29% | 27% | -5% | 8% | 12% | 193% |
| Peers Return | 15% | 10% | -1% | 19% | 17% | 16% | 103% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DE Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 50% | 25% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 45% | 33% | 47% | 45% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DE Max Drawdown | -36% | -1% | -15% | -19% | -13% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -7% | -24% | -8% | -11% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CAT, ALSN, TEX, ASTE, AEBI. See DE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -23.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 351 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 281.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 711 days | 1480 days |
Compare to CAT, ALSN, TEX, ASTE, AEBI
In The Past
Deere's stock fell -34.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2022. A -34.1% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Deere
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 8282025 | 10-Q 7/27/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5292025 | 10-Q 4/27/2025 |
| 1312025 | 2272025 | 10-Q 1/26/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12122024 | 10-K 10/27/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 7/28/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 4/28/2024 |
| 1312024 | 2292024 | 10-Q 1/28/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12152023 | 10-K 10/29/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/30/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6012023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 2232023 | 10-Q 1/29/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12152022 | 10-K 10/30/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5262022 | 10-Q 5/1/2022 |
| 1312022 | 2242022 | 10-Q 1/30/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12162021 | 10-K 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
