Deere (DE)
Market Price (3/17/2026): $570.0 | Market Cap: $154.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Deere (DE)
Market Price (3/17/2026): $570.0Market Cap: $154.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 7.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.6 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -29% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.7% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | Key risksDE key risks include [1] execution risks tied to its "Smart Industrial Strategy," particularly in achieving ambitious margin expansion and overcoming slower-than-expected progress in its software-as-a-service offerings. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies, Automation & Robotics, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Machine Vision, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 7.7 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Autonomous Technologies, Automation & Robotics, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Machine Vision, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -29% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.5%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -4.7% |
| Key risksDE key risks include [1] execution risks tied to its "Smart Industrial Strategy," particularly in achieving ambitious margin expansion and overcoming slower-than-expected progress in its software-as-a-service offerings. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Deere (DE) stock has gained about 25% since 11/30/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Deere reported a significant Q1 2026 earnings beat and subsequently raised its fiscal year net income guidance. The company announced Q1 2026 diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.42, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $1.90 by $0.52. Additionally, quarterly revenue increased by 17.5% year-over-year to $9.61 billion, exceeding analyst projections of $7.50 billion. Following these strong results, Deere increased its fiscal 2026 net income forecast to a range of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion, an upward revision from its prior estimate of $4.0 billion to $4.75 billion. This positive financial performance and outlook propelled the stock, with shares rising over 12% following the announcement.
2. Multiple analyst firms issued positive ratings and significantly raised price targets for Deere's stock. Following the Q1 earnings report, several analysts updated their outlook on Deere. For instance, UBS maintained a "Buy" rating and substantially increased its price target from $535 to $775 on February 20, 2026, marking a 44.86% adjustment. Similarly, RBC Capital raised its price target to $736 from $541, maintaining an "Outperform" rating, while Oppenheimer increased its target to $715 from $531, citing strong construction momentum. These revisions reflect a growing confidence in the company's future performance and market position.
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1. Deere reported a significant Q1 2026 earnings beat and subsequently raised its fiscal year net income guidance. The company announced Q1 2026 diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.42, surpassing analysts' consensus estimates of $1.90 by $0.52. Additionally, quarterly revenue increased by 17.5% year-over-year to $9.61 billion, exceeding analyst projections of $7.50 billion. Following these strong results, Deere increased its fiscal 2026 net income forecast to a range of $4.5 billion to $5.0 billion, an upward revision from its prior estimate of $4.0 billion to $4.75 billion. This positive financial performance and outlook propelled the stock, with shares rising over 12% following the announcement.
2. Multiple analyst firms issued positive ratings and significantly raised price targets for Deere's stock. Following the Q1 earnings report, several analysts updated their outlook on Deere. For instance, UBS maintained a "Buy" rating and substantially increased its price target from $535 to $775 on February 20, 2026, marking a 44.86% adjustment. Similarly, RBC Capital raised its price target to $736 from $541, maintaining an "Outperform" rating, while Oppenheimer increased its target to $715 from $531, citing strong construction momentum. These revisions reflect a growing confidence in the company's future performance and market position.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 23.7% change in DE stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 462.89 | 572.48 | 23.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 43,397 | 45,746 | 5.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.0% | 10.5% | -12.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.1 | 32.1 | 33.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 271 | 270 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 23.7% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DE | 23.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.1% | 14.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 8.0% | 49.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.4% change in DE stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 30.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 475.33 | 572.48 | 20.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 43,397 | 45,746 | 5.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.0% | 10.5% | -12.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.7 | 32.1 | 30.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 271 | 270 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.4% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DE | 20.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.0% | 12.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 9.7% | 41.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 20.7% change in DE stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 55.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 474.30 | 572.48 | 20.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 46,934 | 45,746 | -2.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.2% | 10.5% | -20.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.7 | 32.1 | 55.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 272 | 270 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 20.7% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DE | 20.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 47.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 23.1% | 59.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 42.4% change in DE stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 120.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 402.02 | 572.48 | 42.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 54,348 | 45,746 | -15.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.1% | 10.5% | -30.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.6 | 32.1 | 120.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 298 | 270 | 10.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 42.4% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DE | 42.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.1% | 43.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 71.6% | 59.0% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DE Return | 29% | 27% | -5% | 8% | 11% | 24% | 129% |
| Peers Return | 15% | 11% | 17% | -2% | 23% | 16% | 109% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 77% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DE Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 25% | 42% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 52% | 48% | 50% | 50% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DE Max Drawdown | -1% | -15% | -19% | -13% | -4% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -22% | -15% | -14% | -19% | 0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CAT, AGCO, PCAR, OSK, TTC. See DE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/16/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 142 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -23.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 351 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -73.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 281.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 711 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to CAT, AGCO, PCAR, OSK, TTC
In The Past
Deere's stock fell -34.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2022. A -34.1% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Deere (DE)
Deere & Company manufactures and distributes various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. The Production and Precision Agriculture segment provides mid-size tractors, combines, cotton pickers and strippers, sugarcane harvesters, harvesting front-end equipment, sugarcane loaders, pull-behind scrapers, and tillage and seeding equipment, as well as application equipment, including sprayers and nutrient management, and soil preparation machinery for grain growers. The Small Agriculture and Turf segment offers utility tractors, and related loaders and attachments; turf and utility equipment, including riding lawn equipment, commercial mowing equipment, golf course equipment, and utility vehicles, as well as implements for mowing, tilling, snow and debris handling, aerating, residential, commercial, golf, and sports turf care applications; other outdoor power products; and hay and forage equipment. This segment also resells products from other manufacturers. It serves dairy and livestock producers, crop producers, and turf and utility customers. The Construction and Forestry segment provides a range of backhoe loaders, crawler dozers and loaders, four-wheel-drive loaders, excavators, motor graders, articulated dump trucks, landscape and skid-steer loaders, milling machines, pavers, compactors, rollers, crushers, screens, asphalt plants, log skidders, log feller bunchers, log loaders and forwarders, log harvesters, and attachments; and roadbuilding equipment. The Financial Services segment finances sales and leases agriculture and turf, and construction and forestry equipment. It also offers wholesale financing to dealers of the foregoing equipment; and extended equipment warranties, as well as finances retail revolving charge accounts. Deere & Company was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in Moline, Illinois.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Deere:
Caterpillar for farms and forests.
The General Motors of agricultural and construction equipment.
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- Agriculture Equipment: A comprehensive range of machinery for farming, including tractors, combines, cotton pickers, planters, sprayers, and soil preparation equipment.
- Turf and Utility Equipment: Products such as riding lawn mowers, golf course equipment, utility vehicles, hay and forage equipment, and compact tractors for small agriculture.
- Construction Equipment: Heavy machinery like excavators, loaders, dozers, motor graders, articulated dump trucks, and roadbuilding equipment.
- Forestry Equipment: Specialized machines for logging, including skidders, feller bunchers, harvesters, and log loaders.
- Equipment Financing: Provides loans and leases for retail customers purchasing agriculture, turf, construction, and forestry equipment.
- Wholesale Dealer Financing: Offers financing to dealers for their inventory of John Deere equipment.
- Extended Equipment Warranties: Sells additional warranty coverage for various types of machinery.
- Retail Revolving Charge Accounts: Provides revolving credit facilities for customer purchases.
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Deere & Company (DE) - Major Customers
Deere & Company primarily sells its equipment to a highly fragmented global customer base consisting of various types of businesses and, to a lesser extent, individual consumers. Due to the decentralized nature of these end-users (e.g., millions of individual farms, construction firms, and logging operations worldwide), it is not possible to identify or list specific named public customer companies with their stock symbols. Therefore, the most appropriate way to describe Deere's customer base is through categories of end-users it serves across its different segments.
Customer Categories:
- Agricultural Producers: This category encompasses a wide range of customers, including grain growers, dairy and livestock producers, and other crop producers. These customers rely on Deere's extensive line of production and precision agriculture equipment, as well as smaller agriculture machinery, for their farming and livestock operations.
- Construction and Forestry Operators: This group consists of businesses and professionals involved in construction, roadbuilding, earthmoving, and logging activities. They purchase Deere's heavy machinery such as excavators, bulldozers, loaders, and specialized forestry equipment.
- Turf and Utility Customers: This diverse category includes commercial landscapers, golf course operators, and other businesses requiring turf care solutions, as well as individual homeowners. They utilize Deere's utility tractors, riding lawn equipment, commercial mowing equipment, golf course equipment, and utility vehicles.
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Here are major suppliers for Deere & Company:
- Trimble (Symbol: TRMB)
- NVIDIA (Symbol: NVDA)
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```html John May, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive OfficerJohn May is Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer of Deere & Company. He became CEO in November 2019 and assumed the position of Chairman in May 2020. May joined John Deere in 1997 after working as a management consultant at KPMG Peat Marwick. His previous roles at Deere include President & Chief Operating Officer, President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Chief Information Officer, and President, Agricultural Solutions. He also served as Vice President, Global Turf & Utility platform, and Managing Director of Deere's China operations.
Ryan D. Campbell, Interim Chief Financial Officer and President, Construction & Forestry Division and Power Systems
Ryan D. Campbell is the Interim Chief Financial Officer, a role he assumed effective February 19, 2026. He also holds the position of President, Construction & Forestry Division and Power Systems. Campbell previously served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Deere from March 2019 to May 2022. He joined John Deere in 2007. Before his tenure at Deere, Campbell was a Senior Manager, National Professional Practice and a Senior Manager at Ernst & Young. He has 25 years of diverse experience and, as CFO, was instrumental in launching John Deere's Smart Industrial strategy and Leap Ambitions.
Deanna M. Kovar, President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production & Precision Agriculture, and Americas and Australia
Deanna M. Kovar is the President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production & Precision Agriculture, and Americas and Australia, a position she was appointed to in November 2025. In this capacity, Kovar leads a team focused on developing and implementing equipment and technology solutions for large-scale producers of grain, cotton, and sugar. She joined Deere in 2000 and has an extensive background in precision technologies, having held various roles in channel and product management. Kovar grew up on a Wisconsin dairy farm.
Cory Reed, President, Lifecycle Solutions, Supply Management, and Customer Success
Cory Reed serves as President, Lifecycle Solutions, Supply Management, and Customer Success, a role he assumed in November 2025. He is responsible for Deere's global aftermarket operations, customer support, supply chain, precision upgrades, and business transformation initiatives. Reed joined Deere in 1998. His previous leadership assignments within the company include president, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Production & Precision Ag; president, John Deere Financial; and senior vice president, Intelligent Solutions Group. He played a key role in establishing John Deere's current precision-farming platform.
Justin R. Rose, President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Small Agriculture and Turf Care, Europe, Africa, and Asia
Justin R. Rose is President, Worldwide Agriculture & Turf Division, Small Agriculture and Turf Care, Europe, Africa, and Asia, having been appointed to this role in November 2025. He leads a team dedicated to developing equipment and technology solutions for small agricultural and turf care customers globally. Prior to this, he was President, Lifecycle Solutions, Supply Management, and Customer Success. Before joining Deere in October 2022, Rose spent 20 years at Boston Consulting Group (BCG) as a senior partner and managing director. At BCG, he headed the North American industrial-goods practice and contributed to the development of Deere's Smart Industrial Strategy. ```
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The key risks to Deere & Company's business include:- Cyclical Downturn in Agricultural and Construction Equipment Markets: Deere & Company faces significant risk from the cyclical nature of the agricultural and construction equipment markets. There has been a notable market contraction and a slump in new farm machinery sales, with unit sales decreasing across various equipment types in 2025. This downturn is primarily driven by factors such as cautious customer sentiment, lower commodity prices, high production expenses for farmers, and a normalization of net farm income, directly impacting sales volumes and operating profits across Deere's segments.
- Impact of Global Trade Policies and Tariffs: The company is exposed to risks associated with global trade policies, particularly the impact of tariffs. Deere & Company has projected substantial tariff expenses for its fiscal year 2025, which directly increase production costs and negatively affect profit margins. Incremental tariffs have continued into 2026, further impacting profitability.
- High Interest Rates and Financing Costs: Rising interest rates pose a significant challenge by increasing the cost of financing for customers, which in turn reduces their purchasing power and slows down equipment sales. This directly affects demand for Deere's products across its segments, and also impacts its Financial Services segment, which provides retail and wholesale financing. Higher borrowing costs, combined with a surplus of used equipment, further complicate sales efforts.
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Deere & Company operates in several large addressable markets globally and in the U.S. Below are the estimated market sizes for their main products and services:
Production and Precision Agriculture & Small Agriculture and Turf
- Global Agricultural Equipment Market: The market was valued at approximately USD 207.21 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 402.18 billion by 2034. Another estimate valued the global farm equipment market at USD 186.9 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 350.9 billion by 2035.
- U.S. Agricultural Equipment Market: This market was valued at USD 75.85 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 123.69 billion by 2033.
- Global Turf Care Equipment Market: The global turf care equipment market was valued at USD 24.6 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 120.73 billion by 2032.
- Global Lawn and Garden Equipment Market: This broader market was estimated at USD 77.28 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 206.90 billion by 2032.
Construction and Forestry
- Global Construction Equipment Market: The market was valued at USD 208.7 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to reach USD 362.8 billion by 2032.
- U.S. Construction Equipment Market: This market size was valued at USD 64,396.6 million (or approximately USD 64.4 billion) in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 92,865.2 million (or approximately USD 92.9 billion) by 2034.
- Global Forestry Equipment Market: The global forestry equipment market was valued at USD 13.5 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to reach USD 21.5 billion by 2032.
- North America Forestry Equipment Market: This market was valued at USD 3.84 billion in 2025.
- U.S. Forestry Equipment Market: The market size in the U.S. was estimated at USD 3,013.28 million (or approximately USD 3.01 billion) in 2025.
Financial Services
- Global Equipment Finance Services Market: The equipment finance service market was valued at USD 1.437 trillion in 2025, with the leasing market specifically reaching USD 1.6 trillion in 2025 and projected to target USD 3.6 trillion by 2034. Another report stated the global equipment finance services market was valued at USD 1.2 trillion in 2022 and is projected to reach USD 3.1 trillion by 2032.
- Global Construction Equipment Finance Market: This market was estimated at USD 94.27 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 157.26 billion by 2033.
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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Deere & Company (DE) over the next 2-3 years:- Recovery and Growth in Small Agriculture & Turf and Construction & Forestry Segments: Deere anticipates a recovery and growth in its Small Agriculture & Turf and Construction & Forestry segments. The company raised its fiscal year 2026 net sales forecast for both segments to an approximate 15% increase, up from a previous 10% projection. CEO John May has expressed optimism regarding the ongoing recovery in demand within these segments, believing that 2026 will mark the bottom of the current cycle. Recent Q1 fiscal 2026 results demonstrated strong performance in these areas, with Small Agriculture & Turf net sales increasing by 24% and Construction & Forestry net sales rising by 34%, primarily fueled by higher shipment volumes, favorable sales mix, and positive price realization.
- Expansion of Precision Agriculture and Technology Offerings: Deere's "Smart Industrial" strategy, which integrates artificial intelligence, automation, software, and connected services with its heavy equipment, is a significant growth driver. The company is expanding precision technologies like "See & Spray" and "Smart Apply" across various crops. Management aims for substantial growth in subscription and services revenue by 2030, leveraging telematics and precision agriculture solutions. Deere has also set a goal to increase its "engaged acres" (customers actively using the John Deere Operations Center) to 600 million by 2030, having already surpassed 500 million engaged acres globally. This strategic shift positions Deere as a technology provider with recurring, high-margin software and service streams.
- Emerging Market Expansion: Deere is strategically focused on expanding its presence in key emerging markets, particularly Brazil and India. In Brazil, the company is scaling sales of planters, sprayers, and sugarcane harvesters. For India, the focus is on expanding mid-horsepower tractors, combines, and dealer networks, targeting double-digit unit growth. Brazil is recognized as an "ag superpower" with the potential to double its agricultural production over the next decade, where precision agriculture technology will play a crucial role in driving efficiency and output.
- Launch of Innovative Products and R&D Investment: Continuous investment in research and development (R&D) is leading to the launch of innovative products and solutions across all of Deere's business segments. These new product introductions are expected to strengthen Deere's global market position and contribute to future revenue growth. Examples of such initiatives include the launch of new Deere-designed 20-ton excavators.
- Growth in Recurring Revenue from Connected Fleets and Lifecycle Solutions: Deere's global fleet of over 600,000 connected machines enables recurring revenue streams through parts, services, and subscription-based offerings. The company's focus on "Lifecycle Solutions," which encompasses machine connectivity and precision upgrades, is identified as a key enabler for future growth. Deere's management has set targets for significant growth in the share of subscription and services revenue by 2030.
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Share Repurchases
- Deere executed share buybacks in 2023 and 2024, financed by debt, which led to the repurchase of almost 8% of its outstanding shares.
- For the quarter ending December 31, 2025, share repurchases for DE stock amounted to $302 million.
- In fiscal year 2025, Deere returned $2.8 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
Share Issuance
- Deere's shares outstanding have seen a consistent decline over the past few years, with 0.272 billion shares outstanding in 2025, a 1.95% decrease from 2024.
- In 2024, shares outstanding were 0.277 billion, representing a 5.62% decline from 2023.
- The number of shares outstanding as of March 2026 was approximately 270.3 million.
Inbound Investments
- Russell Investments Group Ltd. increased its holdings in Deere & Company by 6.2% in the third quarter, holding 243,214 shares valued at approximately $111.3 million.
- The Manufacturers Life Insurance Company increased its stake in Deere & Company by 30.6% in the second quarter.
- Other institutional investors, including Csenge Advisory Group, MASTERINVEST Kapitalanlage GmbH, and WINTON GROUP Ltd, have also recently acquired or increased their stakes in Deere & Company.
Outbound Investments
- John Deere completed three acquisitions in both 2025 and 2021, contributing to a total of 23 acquisitions made by the company.
- From 2020 to 2025, John Deere averaged 1.8 acquisitions per year.
- Recent acquisitions in 2025 include Tenna (asset management platform), GUSS, and Sentera (crop technology), all for undisclosed amounts.
Capital Expenditures
- Deere & Co.'s capital expenditures amounted to -$4.1 billion as of the financial report for February 1, 2026.
- The trailing twelve months (TTM) capital expenditures ending October 2025 was -$4.228 billion.
- Deere has committed to a $20 billion investment in U.S. manufacturing over the next decade, with $100 million invested in American factories in 2025 alone, focusing on new product development, advanced technologies, and manufacturing facilities like a new distribution center and excavator factory.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| The Bear Case: How DE Behaves During Market Shocks | 03/16/2026 | |
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Deere Stock | 03/10/2026 | |
| Is Deere Stock Outperforming Its Rivals? | 03/04/2026 | |
| Deere (+12%) : Raised Guidance Signals Ag Cycle Bottom, Igniting Breakout | 02/20/2026 | |
| Deere Stock Surged 40%, Here's Why | 02/20/2026 | |
| Deere Earnings Notes | 12/29/2026 | |
| How Low Can Deere Stock Really Go? | 11/27/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| How Low Can DE Really Go In A Market Crash? | 03/16/2026 | |
| Deere Stock To $419? | 03/10/2026 | |
| Where Does Deere Stock Rank Among Competitors? | 03/04/2026 | |
| Deere Stock Surged 40%, Here’s Why | 02/20/2026 | |
| S&P 500 Movers | Winners: OMC, DE, TPL | Losers: EPAM, POOL, CVNA | 02/19/2026 |
Trade Ideas
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| 02272026 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | LZ | LegalZoom.com | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 7.2% | 7.2% | -5.0% |
| 02132026 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.1% | 1.1% | -3.0% |
| 02132026 | TREX | Trex | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.2% | -3.2% | -5.9% |
| 02132026 | PCTY | Paylocity | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.6% | -0.6% | -4.8% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 133.13 |
| Mkt Cap | 35.1 |
| Rev LTM | 19,434 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,953 |
| FCF LTM | 1,885 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,746 |
| CFO LTM | 2,702 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,671 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 35.1 |
| P/S | 2.1 |
| P/EBIT | 18.6 |
| P/E | 26.9 |
| P/CFO | 13.2 |
| Total Yield | 6.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 15.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 30.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 71.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 14.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 16.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 11.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -13.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Services (FS) | 73,612 | 70,732 | 58,864 | 51,624 | 48,719 |
| Corporate | 13,745 | 13,134 | 11,547 | 15,053 | 11,076 |
| Production & Precision Agriculture (PPA) | 8,696 | 8,734 | 8,414 | 7,021 | 5,708 |
| Construction & Forestry (CF) | 7,137 | 7,139 | 6,754 | 6,457 | 6,322 |
| Small Agriculture & Turf (SAT) | 4,130 | 4,348 | 4,451 | 3,959 | 3,266 |
| Total | 107,320 | 104,087 | 90,030 | 84,114 | 75,091 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $572.48 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 154.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/01/1972 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $562.88 | $503.07 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 1.7% | 13.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 37.1% | 30.1% |
| Downside Capture | -79.06 | 36.97 |
| Upside Capture | 12.08 | 50.03 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 15.9% | 47.5% |
DE Betas & Captures as of 2/28/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.20 | 0.41 | 0.28 | 0.24 | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| Up Beta | 1.27 | 1.60 | 1.22 | 0.75 | 0.91 | 0.88 |
| Down Beta | 4.18 | 2.42 | 1.72 | 1.16 | 0.92 | 0.80 |
| Up Capture | -2% | 42% | 38% | 12% | 43% | 39% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 23 | 34 | 66 | 126 | 388 |
| Down Capture | -287% | -263% | -199% | -97% | 42% | 86% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 18 | 27 | 58 | 125 | 363 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE | 24.3% | 30.1% | 0.73 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 30.4% | 19.2% | 1.26 | 59.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.5% | 18.9% | 0.94 | 47.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 68.7% | 26.2% | 1.98 | 7.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.7% | 17.3% | 0.91 | 25.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 9.3% | 16.2% | 0.37 | 46.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -9.2% | 44.2% | -0.09 | 21.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE | 11.6% | 28.9% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.7% | 17.2% | 0.63 | 61.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.60 | 45.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 17.2% | 1.12 | 9.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 26.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 39.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.1% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 17.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE | 23.0% | 30.2% | 0.75 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.9% | 19.8% | 0.62 | 69.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.7% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 57.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.76 | 4.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 30.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 45.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.9% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 14.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/19/2026 | 11.6% | 5.1% | |
| 11/26/2025 | -5.7% | -3.0% | -5.7% |
| 8/14/2025 | -6.8% | -4.1% | -8.4% |
| 5/15/2025 | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.4% |
| 2/13/2025 | -2.2% | 4.0% | 0.2% |
| 11/21/2024 | 8.0% | 15.1% | 6.8% |
| 8/15/2024 | 6.3% | 7.3% | 12.4% |
| 5/16/2024 | -4.7% | -6.8% | -8.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -4.7% | -4.9% |
| Max Positive | 11.6% | 15.9% | 24.1% |
| Max Negative | -14.1% | -8.8% | -9.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 01/31/2026 | 02/26/2026 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/18/2025 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 05/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 02/27/2025 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/12/2024 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 05/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 02/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2023 | 12/15/2023 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2023 | 08/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 02/23/2023 | 10-Q |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/15/2022 | 10-K |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 05/26/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | May, John C Ii | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 500.08 | 11,106 | 5,553,888 | 56,235,496 | Form |
| 2 | May, John C Ii | Chairman & CEO | Direct | Sell | 1092026 | 501.49 | 41,472 | 20,797,649 | 59,160,364 | Form |
| 3 | Reed, Cory J | Pres, Life Sol Cust Sup & S.M. | Direct | Sell | 1152026 | 510.00 | 12,000 | 6,120,000 | 10,603,920 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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