ArcBest (ARCB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $68.6 | Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation
ArcBest (ARCB)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $68.6Market Cap: $1.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -91%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -86% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Future of Freight, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.8% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Future of Freight, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -91%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -86% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -5.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.4% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ARCB Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -5.5% stock movement for ArcBest (ARCB) from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025:
1. Mixed Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results.
ArcBest reported mixed financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on November 5, 2025. While the company exceeded non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) estimates, reporting $1.46 against an anticipated $1.40 or $1.37, it fell slightly short on revenue, achieving $1.05 billion compared to analyst estimates of $1.06 billion. This mixed performance, particularly the revenue miss and a year-over-year decline in net income from continuing operations to $39.3 million from $100.3 million in Q3 2024, led to initial downward pressure on the stock.
2. Unfavorable Fourth Quarter 2025 Outlook.
Management provided a cautious outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025, anticipating a "tough Q4" despite gains from AI-driven productivity. The company projected a significant 400 basis points of sequential margin deterioration in its asset-based segment and an expected non-GAAP operating loss of $1 million to $3 million in the asset-light segment. This guidance reflected continued softness in the broader freight market and the impact of three fewer workdays in the quarter, contributing to investor uncertainty.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ARCB Return | 57% | 182% | -41% | 72% | -22% | -25% | 162% |
| Peers Return | 30% | 41% | -15% | 54% | 10% | -2% | 160% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ARCB Win Rate | 58% | 92% | 42% | 67% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 68% | 40% | 62% | 53% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ARCB Max Drawdown | -41% | 0% | -44% | -2% | -22% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -3% | -30% | -7% | -14% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: XPO, R, WERN, ODFL, JBHT.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ARCB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 82.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 545 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.0% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -50.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 617 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -64.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 179.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1924 days | 1480 days |
Compare to XPO, R, WERN, ODFL, JBHT
In The Past
ArcBest's stock fell -45.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/29/2021. A -45.2% loss requires a 82.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ARCB. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for ArcBest
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 147.18 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.0 |
| Rev LTM | 6,821 |
| Op Inc LTM | 766 |
| FCF LTM | 149 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -3 |
| CFO LTM | 1,205 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,179 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -2.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -0.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 12.0 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 18.1 |
| P/E | 25.2 |
| P/CFO | 8.1 |
| Total Yield | 5.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.2% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 15.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -17.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 8.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -4.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 0.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -32.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -66.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset-Based | 2,871 | 3,011 | 2,574 | 2,092 | 2,077 |
| Asset-Light | 1,681 | 2,139 | |||
| Other and eliminations | -124 | -121 | -148 | -136 | 5 |
| ArcBest | 1,301 | 779 | 731 | ||
| FleetNet | 254 | 205 | 175 | ||
| Total | 4,427 | 5,029 | 3,980 | 2,940 | 2,988 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asset-Based | 253 | 381 | 261 | 99 | 102 |
| Asset-Light | -12 | 53 | |||
| Other and eliminations | -68 | -39 | -31 | -14 | -23 |
| ArcBest | 46 | 10 | -20 | ||
| FleetNet | 5 | 3 | 5 | ||
| Total | 173 | 395 | 281 | 98 | 64 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |