Tearsheet

Union Pacific (UNP)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $236.64 | Market Cap: $140.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation

Union Pacific (UNP)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $236.64
Market Cap: $140.2 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Rail Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce Logistics & Data Centers, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

UNP Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Union Pacific's (UNP) stock experienced a notable increase of approximately 5.2% in the period leading up to late November 2025. This movement can be attributed to several key factors.

1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report. Union Pacific reported robust third-quarter adjusted earnings per share, which saw a 12% year-over-year increase, and its total revenue slightly surpassed analyst estimates. This performance was primarily driven by strong pricing strategies and ongoing operational investments.

2. Declaration of Increased Dividend. Complementing the positive earnings, Union Pacific's Board of Directors announced a fourth-quarter 2025 dividend of US$1.38 per share. This dividend hike signals confidence in the company's financial health and profitability, often appealing to investors seeking income.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
UNP Return18%23%-16%22%-5%4%46%
Peers Return26%19%-9%10%-7%7%50%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
UNP Win Rate58%50%42%50%33%60% 
Peers Win Rate70%50%37%52%45%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
UNP Max Drawdown-37%-7%-25%-10%-9%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-33%-6%-20%-12%-11%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CSX, NSC, CP, CNI, UNP. See UNP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventUNPS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-32.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-39.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven64.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven141 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven50 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-59.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven149.6%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven578 days1480 days

Compare to CSX, NSC, CP, CNI, UNP


In The Past

Union Pacific's stock fell -32.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/30/2022. A -32.6% loss requires a 48.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Union Pacific (UNP)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to UNP. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
UNP_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022UNPUnion PacificMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.2%21.6%-9.7%
UNP_6302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper06302022UNPUnion PacificMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-1.6%-12.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
UNP_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022UNPUnion PacificMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.2%21.6%-9.7%
UNP_6302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper06302022UNPUnion PacificMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-1.6%-12.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Union Pacific

Peers to compare with:

Financials

UNPCSXNSCCPCNIMedian
NameUnion Pa.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Canadian. 
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NameUnion Pa.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Canadian. 
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Valuation

UNPCSXNSCCPCNIMedian
NameUnion Pa.CSX Norfolk .Canadian.Canadian. 
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Returns

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Railroad24,11924,87521,80419,53321,708
Total24,11924,87521,80419,53321,708


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity20,809,880
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.5%
Average Daily Volume3,047,162
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.83
Basic Shares Quantity592,400,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024207202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023209202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231019202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023726202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023420202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022210202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221020202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022721202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022421202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-K 12/31/2021