Norfolk Southern (NSC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $293.08 | Market Cap: $65.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation
Norfolk Southern (NSC)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $293.08Market Cap: $65.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Rail Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
NSC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The request asks for an analysis of Norfolk Southern (NSC) stock movement (5.5%) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to today (December 4, 2025). As these dates are in the future, I cannot provide a factual explanation for a stock movement that has not yet occurred. However, I can provide information on key factors that have influenced Norfolk Southern's stock performance and the broader rail industry in recent periods for which information is available.
Here are some key points that have been relevant to Norfolk Southern's stock performance and the rail industry:
1. Financial Performance and Operating Ratios. Norfolk Southern reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, with full-year 2024 revenue at $12.1 billion and diluted earnings per share at $11.57. The company also achieved an operating ratio of 66.4% for full-year 2024, an improvement of 1,010 basis points compared to 76.5% in 2023. Improvements in operating ratio and income from railway operations can positively influence investor sentiment.
2. Productivity Initiatives and Network Efficiencies. Norfolk Southern has emphasized productivity initiatives and network efficiencies as drivers of its performance. The company's management stated that its network is running fast, terminals are more efficient, and service metrics are steady, leading to increased customer business. These operational improvements are key to driving long-term value.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NSC Return | 25% | 27% | -16% | -2% | 2% | 27% | 70% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 19% | -9% | 10% | -7% | 7% | 50% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NSC Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 33% | 42% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 50% | 37% | 52% | 45% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NSC Max Drawdown | -38% | -2% | -30% | -24% | -10% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -6% | -20% | -12% | -11% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UNP, CSX, CP, CNI, NSC. See NSC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NSC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 703 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 80.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 158 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 95 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -63.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 173.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 780 days | 1480 days |
Compare to UNP, CSX, CP, CNI, NSC
In The Past
Norfolk Southern's stock fell -38.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -38.0% loss requires a 61.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NSC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 04302023 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -8.0% | 22.0% | -8.0% |
| 10312022 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.5% | -14.4% | -17.2% |
| 04302022 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -10.3% | -19.6% | -21.1% |
| 03312020 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 49.4% | 87.4% | -4.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 04302023 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -8.0% | 22.0% | -8.0% |
| 10312022 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.5% | -14.4% | -17.2% |
| 04302022 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -10.3% | -19.6% | -21.1% |
| 03312020 | NSC | Norfolk Southern | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 49.4% | 87.4% | -4.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Norfolk Southern
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Growth & Margins
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Valuation
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intermodal | 3,090 | 3,681 | 3,163 | 2,654 | 2,824 |
| Agriculture, forest and consumer products | 2,530 | 2,493 | 2,251 | 2,116 | 2,256 |
| Chemicals | 2,054 | 2,148 | 1,951 | 1,809 | 2,092 |
| Coal | 1,713 | 1,733 | 1,310 | 1,047 | 1,669 |
| Metals and construction | 1,634 | 1,652 | 1,562 | 1,333 | 1,461 |
| Automotive | 1,135 | 1,038 | 905 | 830 | 994 |
| Total | 12,156 | 12,745 | 11,142 | 9,789 | 11,296 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4232025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2102025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10222024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2052024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
