Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)
Market Price (5/1/2026): $531.9 | Market Cap: $16.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Construction & Engineering
Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)
Market Price (5/1/2026): $531.9Market Cap: $16.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Construction & Engineering
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Datacenter Power, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 37x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 36x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 55x Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 245% Key risksSTRL key risks include [1] significant customer concentration, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Datacenter Power, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 37x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 36x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 55x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 245% |
| Key risksSTRL key risks include [1] significant customer concentration, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) stock has gained about 45% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Exceptional Q4 2025 Financial Performance and Robust FY2026 Guidance.
Sterling Infrastructure announced strong fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 25, 2026, reporting earnings per share (EPS) of $3.08, significantly beating analyst estimates of $2.63 by $0.45. Quarterly revenue reached $755.61 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $639.41 million. The company also issued optimistic full-year 2026 guidance, projecting adjusted diluted EPS between $13.45 and $14.05 and revenue from $3.05 billion to $3.20 billion, indicating anticipated year-over-year growth of approximately 25% in revenue and 26% in adjusted EPS.
2. Robust Backlog and Strong Demand in E-Infrastructure Solutions.
The company concluded 2025 with a substantial backlog of $3.01 billion, complemented by a total pipeline, including unsigned awards and future phase opportunities, approaching $4.5 billion. A significant driver of this growth is the E-Infrastructure Solutions segment, which saw sales surge by 123% year-over-year in Q4 2025. This segment focuses on mission-critical electrical services for data centers and semiconductor fabrication, areas experiencing accelerating demand due to advancements in cloud computing and artificial intelligence.
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1. Exceptional Q4 2025 Financial Performance and Robust FY2026 Guidance.
Sterling Infrastructure announced strong fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 25, 2026, reporting earnings per share (EPS) of $3.08, significantly beating analyst estimates of $2.63 by $0.45. Quarterly revenue reached $755.61 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $639.41 million. The company also issued optimistic full-year 2026 guidance, projecting adjusted diluted EPS between $13.45 and $14.05 and revenue from $3.05 billion to $3.20 billion, indicating anticipated year-over-year growth of approximately 25% in revenue and 26% in adjusted EPS.
2. Robust Backlog and Strong Demand in E-Infrastructure Solutions.
The company concluded 2025 with a substantial backlog of $3.01 billion, complemented by a total pipeline, including unsigned awards and future phase opportunities, approaching $4.5 billion. A significant driver of this growth is the E-Infrastructure Solutions segment, which saw sales surge by 123% year-over-year in Q4 2025. This segment focuses on mission-critical electrical services for data centers and semiconductor fabrication, areas experiencing accelerating demand due to advancements in cloud computing and artificial intelligence.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 44.1% change in STRL stock from 1/31/2026 to 4/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 57.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 4302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 357.91 | 515.62 | 44.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,233 | 2,490 | 11.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 14.1% | 11.7% | -17.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.6 | 54.5 | 57.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 31 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 44.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 4/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STRL | 44.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 60.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 5.8% | 74.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 36.4% change in STRL stock from 10/31/2025 to 4/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 35.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 4302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 377.90 | 515.62 | 36.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,138 | 2,490 | 16.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 13.3% | 11.7% | -12.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 40.3 | 54.5 | 35.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 31 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 36.4% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 4/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STRL | 36.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 60.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 13.3% | 65.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 245.1% change in STRL stock from 4/30/2025 to 4/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 206.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 4302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 149.43 | 515.62 | 245.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,116 | 2,490 | 17.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.2% | 11.7% | -4.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.8 | 54.5 | 206.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 31 | 31 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 245.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 4/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STRL | 245.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 54.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 34.8% | 61.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1296.6% change in STRL stock from 4/30/2023 to 4/30/2026 was primarily driven by a 410.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 4302026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 36.92 | 515.62 | 1296.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,769 | 2,490 | 40.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.9% | 11.7% | 96.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 10.7 | 54.5 | 410.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 30 | 31 | -1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1296.6% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 4/30/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| STRL | 1296.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 50.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 82.6% | 55.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| STRL Return | 41% | 25% | 168% | 92% | 82% | 53% | 2424% |
| Peers Return | 37% | 3% | 30% | 70% | 36% | 29% | 443% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 90% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| STRL Win Rate | 75% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 58% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 55% | 63% | 65% | 65% | 75% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| STRL Max Drawdown | -4% | -21% | -4% | -18% | -38% | -3% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -27% | -12% | -11% | -23% | -3% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: PWR, MTZ, PRIM, GVA, ACM.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/30/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | STRL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -17.2% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.7% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -49.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 145 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -17.9% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.8% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Sterling Infrastructure's stock fell -17.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.7% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | STRL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -22.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.1% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 31 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -49.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 145 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.3% | 23.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -26.3% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.7% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -71.7% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 253.5% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 635 days | 15 days |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | ||
| % Loss | -32.3% | -0.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.6% | 0.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1108 days | 1 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -24.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.6% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2100 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -29.4% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 41.7% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2664 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -58.2% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 139.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4437 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Sterling Infrastructure's stock fell -17.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)
Sterling Construction Company, Inc. engages in the transportation, e-infrastructure, and building solutions primarily in the Southern United States, the Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States, the Rocky Mountain states, California, and Hawaii. It undertakes infrastructure and rehabilitation projects for highways, roads, bridges, airports, ports, light rail, water, wastewater, and storm drainage systems for the departments of transportation in various states, regional transit authorities, airport authorities, port authorities, water authorities and railroads. The company also provides specialty site infrastructure improvement contracting services for blue-chip end users in the e-commerce, data center, distribution center and warehousing, and energy sectors. In addition, it undertakes residential and commercial concrete foundations for single-family and multi-family homes, parking structures, elevated slabs, and other concrete work for national home builders, regional and custom home builders, and developers and general contractors in commercial markets. The company was formerly known as Oakhurst Company, Inc. and changed its name to Sterling Construction Company, Inc. in November 2001. Sterling Construction Company, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.
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They are a diversified construction company akin to Granite Construction (a major builder of highways and public infrastructure), but also specializing in site preparation for data centers and e-commerce warehouses, and concrete foundations for residential and commercial buildings.
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- Transportation & Public Infrastructure: Construction and rehabilitation services for major public works such as highways, bridges, airports, ports, and water systems.
- E-infrastructure & Commercial Site Development: Specialty site infrastructure improvement services catering to sectors like e-commerce, data centers, and large-scale commercial facilities.
- Building Solutions (Concrete Foundations): Provides concrete foundations and related structural concrete work for residential homes, multi-family units, and commercial buildings.
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Major Customers of Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)
Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) primarily serves other companies and governmental entities across its three main business segments. The company's major customers fall into the following categories:
- Governmental and Public Authorities: This includes departments of transportation in various states, regional transit authorities, airport authorities, port authorities, water authorities, and railroads for infrastructure and rehabilitation projects. These are not publicly traded companies but public sector organizations.
- Blue-Chip Corporations: For its specialty site infrastructure improvement services, STRL serves "blue-chip end users" in the e-commerce, data center, distribution center and warehousing, and energy sectors. Specific company names are not disclosed in the description, but these are large corporate clients.
- Home Builders, Developers, and General Contractors: In its residential and commercial concrete foundation segment, STRL works for national home builders, regional and custom home builders, developers, and general contractors in commercial markets. Specific company names for these clients are not provided.
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Joseph A. Cutillo – Chief Executive Officer
Joe Cutillo has served as the Chief Executive Officer of Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. since 2017. He joined Sterling in 2015. Prior to his role at Sterling, Mr. Cutillo was the President and Chief Executive Officer of Inland Pipe Rehabilitation LLC, a private equity-backed trenchless pipe rehabilitation company, from 2008 to 2015. He also held leadership positions at Contech Construction Products, Ingersoll-Rand Corp, and General Electric. He is credited with leading a strategic transformation at Sterling, focusing on high-complexity, private-sector projects.
Nicholas Grindstaff – Chief Financial Officer
Nicholas Grindstaff was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Sterling Infrastructure, Inc., effective July 10, 2025. He brings over 30 years of finance and leadership experience, with a strong background in the infrastructure and energy industries. Most recently, he served as CFO of Cinterra, a turnkey solar and renewable energy contractor, from late 2024 to June 2025. From 2021 to 2024, he was the CFO of Orbital Infrastructure Group, Inc., a diversified infrastructure services company. Earlier in his career, Mr. Grindstaff spent more than two decades at Quanta Services, Inc., where his roles included Treasurer and Vice President – Finance.
Daniel Govin – Chief Operating Officer
Daniel Govin serves as Sterling's Chief Operating Officer, having joined the company in August 2024. He has 30 years of experience in operations and leadership, with previous roles including Regional President at Quanta Services and President of Par Electrical Contractors within the energy infrastructure industry.
Mark Wolf – General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer & Corporate Secretary
Mark Wolf has been the General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer & Corporate Secretary of Sterling since August 2020. Before joining Sterling, he served as Vice President, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary of US Well Services, Inc., and held legal roles at TechnipFMC and FMC Technologies, Inc.
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Key Risks for Sterling Infrastructure (STRL)
- Dependence on Government Infrastructure Spending and Economic Conditions: A significant portion of Sterling Infrastructure's business relies on contracts from government agencies for transportation and water infrastructure projects. Funding for these projects is subject to political decisions, budgetary allocations, and economic conditions. Similarly, the company's residential and commercial concrete foundation work is directly tied to the health of the broader economy, interest rates, and demand in the housing and commercial construction markets. A decline in government infrastructure spending or a downturn in the construction sector could significantly impact the company's revenues and profitability.
- Volatility in Material and Labor Costs: As a heavy civil and concrete contractor, Sterling Infrastructure is highly exposed to fluctuations in the cost of key construction materials such as asphalt, concrete, and steel. The availability and cost of skilled labor also present a significant risk. Unexpected increases in material or labor costs, particularly on fixed-price contracts, can erode profit margins and negatively affect project profitability.
- Intense Competition and Project Bidding Risks: The construction industry is highly competitive, and Sterling Infrastructure operates in a fragmented market. The company faces risks associated with intense competition for new projects, which can lead to aggressive bidding, reduced profit margins, or the loss of desirable contracts. Accurate estimation of project costs, schedules, and potential risks is crucial for successful bidding and project execution.
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Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) operates in several addressable markets primarily within the United States.
For its main products and services, the addressable markets are sized as follows:
Transportation Infrastructure (U.S.)
- The U.S. transportation infrastructure market was valued at approximately USD 380.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 550.5 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.9% from 2025 to 2032.
- Another estimate for the U.S. transportation infrastructure construction market indicates a value of USD 233.03 billion in 2025, with a forecast to reach USD 298.12 billion by 2031 at a 4.19% CAGR.
E-Infrastructure (U.S.)
This segment includes specialty site infrastructure for e-commerce, data centers, distribution centers, warehousing, and energy sectors.
- Data Center Construction: The U.S. data center construction market was valued between approximately USD 14.35 billion and USD 94.14 billion in 2025. Projections suggest growth to a range of USD 21.43 billion by 2030 to USD 211.66 billion by 2033, with various sources indicating CAGRs between 5.15% and 11% over different forecast periods.
- Warehousing & Distribution Center Construction: The broader U.S. industrial building construction market, which encompasses warehouses, data centers, and specialized manufacturing facilities, was valued at USD 43.8 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 61.6 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 4.5% during 2025–2032. As of December 2024, approximately USD 9 billion worth of warehousing and distribution projects were under construction in the U.S.
- Energy Infrastructure Construction: The U.S. power infrastructure market was valued at USD 264.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to increase to USD 455.6 billion by 2032, advancing at a CAGR of 7.2% during 2025–2032. The energy and utilities construction market was valued at $139.64 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to $208.73 billion in 2030.
Building Solutions (U.S.)
This covers residential and commercial concrete foundations and other concrete work.
- Overall Concrete Market: The U.S. concrete market was estimated at USD 351,372.5 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 541,383.5 million by 2035, growing at a CAGR of around 4.01% from 2025 to 2035.
- Concrete Contractors: The market size for Concrete Contractors in the U.S. was approximately USD 110.4 billion in 2025 and USD 110.5 billion in 2026.
- Precast Concrete: The U.S. precast concrete market, which includes components used in residential and commercial construction, was valued at USD 20.85 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 36.45 billion by 2033. Residential applications constitute 63.2% of this market.
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Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key factors:
- Booming E-Infrastructure Demand: The E-Infrastructure Solutions segment is projected to be the primary driver of revenue growth, fueled by the accelerating demand for data centers (including AI data centers), semiconductor fabrication facilities, advanced manufacturing plants, and e-commerce distribution and warehousing centers. This segment saw a 123% year-over-year revenue surge in Q4 2025 and is targeting 40% or higher growth in 2026.
- Strategic Acquisitions: Recent acquisitions, such as CEC Facilities Group, have significantly expanded Sterling Infrastructure's E-Infrastructure capabilities, particularly in specialty electrical and mechanical contracting, and have notably boosted the company's backlog and revenue. The acquisition of Drake Concrete also strengthened the Building Solutions segment.
- Robust Backlog and Project Pipeline: The company's record-high signed backlog, which reached $3 billion at the end of 2025, along with unsigned awards and future phase opportunities totaling approximately $4.5 billion, provides substantial revenue visibility for the coming years.
- Geographic Expansion and Market Penetration: Sterling Infrastructure is strategically expanding its presence into new high-growth regions, such as Texas and the Pacific Northwest, to capitalize on large-scale infrastructure projects. The company is actively deploying teams into selected markets ahead of upcoming "megaprojects" to secure long-term opportunities.
- Stable Contribution from Transportation Solutions: The Transportation Solutions segment is expected to continue providing stable revenue growth, supported by the ongoing federal infrastructure funding cycle through initiatives like the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). Management anticipates low to mid-single-digit revenue growth and continued margin expansion in this segment.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- Sterling Infrastructure authorized a new $400 million stock repurchase program on November 12, 2025, effective for 24 months, replacing a prior program.
- At the time of replacement, the previous program had $81 million of remaining capacity.
- Actual share repurchases were approximately $74.2 million in 2025, $43.8 million in 2023, $43.8 million in 2022, and $70.6 million in 2021.
Share Issuance
- In June 2025, Sterling Infrastructure issued $55 million in common stock as part of the consideration for the acquisition of CEC Facilities Group.
- Sterling Infrastructure's shares outstanding increased by 2.11% in 2023 from 2022.
Outbound Investments
- In June 2025, Sterling Infrastructure announced the acquisition of CEC Facilities Group for a total of $505 million, comprising $450 million in cash and $55 million in Sterling Common Stock.
- This acquisition, completed in Q3 2025, aimed to significantly expand Sterling's E-Infrastructure capabilities, particularly in electrical and mechanical services for data centers and manufacturing.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures amounted to approximately $77.31 million in 2025, $50.92 million in 2024, $31.26 million in 2023, $17.92 million in 2022, and $80.95 million in 2021.
- The capital expenditures are primarily focused on supporting its E-Infrastructure, Transportation, and Building Solutions segments.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
| 11142025 | STRL | Sterling Infrastructure | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 52.3% | 52.3% | -16.3% |
| 03312025 | STRL | Sterling Infrastructure | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 201.3% | 259.7% | -7.3% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 287.60 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.4 |
| Rev LTM | 10,937 |
| Op Inc LTM | 533 |
| FCF LTM | 352 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 491 |
| CFO LTM | 508 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 618 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 17.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 30.7% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 35.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 5.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 13.4 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/Op Inc | 31.0 |
| P/EBIT | 30.4 |
| P/E | 45.1 |
| P/CFO | 28.4 |
| Total Yield | 2.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 24.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 27.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 34.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 175.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 341.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 14.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 24.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 29.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 143.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 269.2% |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $515.62 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 15.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/18/1995 | |
| Distance from 52W High | 0.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $436.17 | $356.61 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 18.2% | 44.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 68.3% | 58.3% |
| Downside Capture | 0.98 | 1.10 |
| Upside Capture | 260.36 | 287.52 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 58.8% | 53.9% |
STRL Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.54 | 2.64 | 2.56 | 2.92 | 2.46 | 1.88 |
| Up Beta | 3.97 | 3.69 | 3.95 | 3.43 | 2.67 | 1.93 |
| Down Beta | 4.11 | 3.27 | 2.28 | 3.34 | 2.37 | 1.64 |
| Up Capture | 167% | 257% | 318% | 416% | 744% | 3581% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 26 | 37 | 69 | 141 | 410 |
| Down Capture | -473% | 171% | 145% | 194% | 155% | 110% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 17 | 27 | 56 | 110 | 340 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with STRL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STRL | 234.9% | 58.2% | 2.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 36.0% | 15.4% | 1.79 | 61.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.6% | 12.5% | 1.88 | 54.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 38.6% | 27.2% | 1.18 | 19.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.6% | 18.0% | 2.07 | -4.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 13.5% | 0.71 | 17.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -19.3% | 42.1% | -0.39 | 24.1% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with STRL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STRL | 88.9% | 51.0% | 1.44 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.2% | 17.4% | 0.60 | 55.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.9% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 48.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.6% | 17.9% | 0.94 | 10.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.4% | 19.1% | 0.62 | 10.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 29.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.3% | 56.2% | 0.36 | 21.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with STRL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STRL | 57.5% | 50.7% | 1.10 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.0% | 19.9% | 0.62 | 51.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 45.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.5% | 15.9% | 0.70 | 4.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 16.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.9% | 20.7% | 0.25 | 33.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.1% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 13.4% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/25/2026 | -4.8% | -7.7% | -8.6% |
| 11/3/2025 | -2.6% | -2.1% | -15.4% |
| 8/4/2025 | 9.1% | 6.7% | 0.8% |
| 2/25/2025 | 5.4% | 5.5% | 8.3% |
| 11/6/2024 | -0.6% | 6.4% | 11.6% |
| 8/5/2024 | 3.5% | 3.0% | 6.7% |
| 5/6/2024 | 15.8% | 21.6% | 10.6% |
| 2/26/2024 | 18.1% | 23.8% | 25.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 13 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 5.0% | 8.7% | 8.6% |
| Median Negative | -4.6% | -5.0% | -5.4% |
| Max Positive | 22.3% | 29.7% | 29.6% |
| Max Negative | -15.9% | -11.0% | -15.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/04/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/27/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/07/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/28/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 3.05 Bil | 3.12 Bil | 3.20 Bil | 31.2% | Higher New | Actual: 2.38 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net Income | 365.00 Mil | 374.50 Mil | 384.00 Mil | 37.4% | Higher New | Actual: 272.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 EPS | 11.7 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 35.8% | Higher New | Actual: 8.8 for 2025 | |
| 2026 EBITDA | 587.00 Mil | 603.50 Mil | 620.00 Mil | 34.0% | Higher New | Actual: 450.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | 422.00 Mil | 431.50 Mil | 441.00 Mil | 33.4% | Higher New | Actual: 323.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Diluted EPS | 13.4 | 13.8 | 14.1 | 31.8% | Higher New | Actual: 10.4 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 626.00 Mil | 642.50 Mil | 659.00 Mil | 31.5% | Higher New | Actual: 488.50 Mil for 2025 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/3/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 2.38 Bil | 2.38 Bil | 2.39 Bil | 12.1% | Raised | Guidance: 2.12 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Net Income | 270.00 Mil | 272.50 Mil | 275.00 Mil | 10.1% | Raised | Guidance: 247.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Diluted EPS | 8.73 | 8.8 | 8.87 | 10.0% | Raised | Guidance: 8 for 2025 | |
| 2025 EBITDA | 448.00 Mil | 450.50 Mil | 453.00 Mil | 8.9% | Raised | Guidance: 413.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted Net Income | 321.00 Mil | 323.50 Mil | 326.00 Mil | 11.7% | Raised | Guidance: 289.50 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted Diluted EPS | 10.3 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 11.7% | Raised | Guidance: 9.34 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 486.00 Mil | 488.50 Mil | 491.00 Mil | 9.7% | Raised | Guidance: 445.50 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cutillo, Joseph A | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 4242026 | 497.57 | 50,000 | 24,878,635 | 144,591,144 | Form |
| 2 | Cutillo, Joseph A | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3272026 | 453.48 | 50,000 | 22,674,175 | 154,453,306 | Form |
| 3 | Wilson, Dwayne Andree | Direct | Sell | 3162026 | 405.95 | 1,260 | 511,496 | 4,988,715 | Form | |
| 4 | Cutillo, Joseph A | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 416.21 | 47,592 | 19,808,281 | 162,568,830 | Form |
| 5 | Cutillo, Joseph A | Chief Executive Officer | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 408.42 | 52,408 | 21,404,365 | 178,962,598 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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