CSX (CSX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $35.7 | Market Cap: $66.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation
CSX (CSX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $35.7Market Cap: $66.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Rail Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CSX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
I am unable to provide information for the requested time period as it is in the future.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CSX Return | 27% | 26% | -17% | 14% | -6% | 10% | 57% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 19% | -9% | 10% | -7% | 7% | 50% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CSX Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 33% | 50% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 70% | 50% | 37% | 52% | 45% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CSX Max Drawdown | -34% | -8% | -29% | -9% | -8% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -6% | -20% | -12% | -11% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UNP, NSC, CP, CNI, CSX. See CSX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CSX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 499 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -40.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 68.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 205 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -22.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 28.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -69.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 230.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 675 days | 1480 days |
Compare to UNP, NSC, CP, CNI, CSX
In The Past
CSX's stock fell -29.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/30/2022. A -29.9% loss requires a 42.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| CSX Earnings Notes | |||
| Better Bet Than CSX Stock: UNP Delivers More | Actionable | ||
| CSX Capital Return Hits $29 Bil in 10 Years | |||
| How Low Can CSX Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| How Does CSX Stack Up Against Its Peers? | |||
| Day 5 of Loss Streak for CSX Stock with -11% Return (vs. 1.3% YTD) [8/26/2025] | Notification | ||
| CSX vs Willis Lease Finance: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Better Bet Than CSX Stock: Pay Less Than CSX To Get More From UNP, NSC | |||
| Better Bet Than CSX Stock: Pay Less Than CSX To Get More From NSC, UNP | |||
| CSX Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Pay Less, Gain More: UNP Tops CSX Stock | November 19th, 2025 | ||
| Pay Less, Gain More: UNP Tops CSX Stock | November 5th, 2025 | ||
| CSX Stock Pays Out $29 Bil – Investors Take Note | October 28th, 2025 | ||
| UNP Tops CSX Stock on Price & Potential | October 25th, 2025 | ||
| Better Bet Than CSX Stock: Pay Less To Get More From NSC | October 1st, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CSX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 03312025 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 22.7% | 20.2% | -9.3% |
| 04302023 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.9% | 12.3% | -3.9% |
| 10312022 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 8.4% | 4.2% | -2.7% |
| 04302022 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -14.4% | -9.6% | -22.3% |
| 11302019 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 29.3% | -33.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 03312025 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 22.7% | 20.2% | -9.3% |
| 04302023 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.9% | 12.3% | -3.9% |
| 10312022 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 8.4% | 4.2% | -2.7% |
| 04302022 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -14.4% | -9.6% | -22.3% |
| 11302019 | CSX | CSX | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 29.3% | -33.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for CSX
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Growth & Margins
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Valuation
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rail | 13,775 | 14,853 | 10,583 | 11,937 | |
| Trucking Revenue | 887 | ||||
| Elimination of intersegment revenues | -5 | ||||
| Agricultural and Food Products | 1,461 | ||||
| Automotive | 886 | ||||
| Chemicals | 2,421 | ||||
| Coal | 1,790 | ||||
| Fertilizers | 470 | ||||
| Forest Products | 918 | ||||
| Intermodal | 2,039 | ||||
| Metals and Equipment | 796 | ||||
| Minerals | 587 | ||||
| Other | 744 | ||||
| Trucking | 410 | ||||
| Total | 14,657 | 14,853 | 12,522 | 10,583 | 11,937 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rail | 5,467 | ||||
| Trucking Revenue and Eliminations | 882 | ||||
| Trucking Expenses and Eliminations | -850 | ||||
| Total | 5,499 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rail | 42,000 | ||||
| Total | 42,000 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10162025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7232025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4162025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10172024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8052024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4182024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10202023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7202023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4202023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2152023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10212022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4212022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
