Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, Automation & Robotics, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CSX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

I am unable to provide information for the requested time period as it is in the future.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CSX Return27%26%-17%14%-6%10%57%
Peers Return26%19%-9%10%-7%7%50%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CSX Win Rate75%58%33%50%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate70%50%37%52%45%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CSX Max Drawdown-34%-8%-29%-9%-8%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-33%-6%-20%-12%-11%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UNP, NSC, CP, CNI, CSX. See CSX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCSXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-29.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven42.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven499 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-40.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven68.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven205 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-22.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven28.5%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven98 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-69.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven230.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven675 days1480 days

Compare to UNP, NSC, CP, CNI, CSX


In The Past

CSX's stock fell -29.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/30/2022. A -29.9% loss requires a 42.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About CSX (CSX)

Interactive Breakdown

CSX Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CSX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
CSX_3312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03312025CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
22.7%20.2%-9.3%
CSX_4302023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302023CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-3.9%12.3%-3.9%
CSX_10312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312022CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
8.4%4.2%-2.7%
CSX_4302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302022CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-14.4%-9.6%-22.3%
CSX_11302019_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302019CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%29.3%-33.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
CSX_3312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper03312025CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
22.7%20.2%-9.3%
CSX_4302023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302023CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-3.9%12.3%-3.9%
CSX_10312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312022CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
8.4%4.2%-2.7%
CSX_4302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302022CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-14.4%-9.6%-22.3%
CSX_11302019_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302019CSXCSXMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.8%29.3%-33.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for CSX

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CSXUNPNSCCPCNIMedian
NameCSX Union Pa.Norfolk .Canadian.Canadian. 
Mkt Price------
Mkt Cap------
Rev LTM------
Op Inc LTM------
FCF LTM------
FCF 3Y Avg------
CFO LTM------
CFO 3Y Avg------

Growth & Margins

CSXUNPNSCCPCNIMedian
NameCSX Union Pa.Norfolk .Canadian.Canadian. 
Rev Chg LTM------
Rev Chg 3Y Avg------
Rev Chg Q------
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM------
Op Mgn LTM------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM------
CFO/Rev LTM------
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg------
FCF/Rev LTM------
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg------

Valuation

CSXUNPNSCCPCNIMedian
NameCSX Union Pa.Norfolk .Canadian.Canadian. 
Mkt Cap------
P/S------
P/EBIT------
P/E------
P/CFO------
Total Yield------
Dividend Yield------
FCF Yield 3Y Avg------
D/E------
Net D/E------

Returns

CSXUNPNSCCPCNIMedian
NameCSX Union Pa.Norfolk .Canadian.Canadian. 
1M Rtn------
3M Rtn------
6M Rtn------
12M Rtn------
3Y Rtn------
1M Excs Rtn------
3M Excs Rtn------
6M Excs Rtn------
12M Excs Rtn------
3Y Excs Rtn------

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Rail13,77514,853 10,58311,937
Trucking Revenue887    
Elimination of intersegment revenues-5    
Agricultural and Food Products  1,461  
Automotive  886  
Chemicals  2,421  
Coal  1,790  
Fertilizers  470  
Forest Products  918  
Intermodal  2,039  
Metals and Equipment  796  
Minerals  587  
Other  744  
Trucking  410  
Total14,65714,85312,52210,58311,937


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Rail5,467    
Trucking Revenue and Eliminations882    
Trucking Expenses and Eliminations-850    
Total5,499    


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Rail42,000    
Total42,000    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity30,540,986
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202522.6%
Average Daily Volume11,672,349
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.62
Basic Shares Quantity1,864,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251016202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025723202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025416202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241017202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024418202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023214202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231020202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023720202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023420202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022215202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221021202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022721202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022421202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021