Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 5.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -26%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 5.2%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -26%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.5%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MATX Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are key points that would explain a significant movement in Matson's stock price, based on the most recent available information: 1. Strong Financial Performance Exceeding Expectations

Matson reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, with adjusted earnings per share of $3.80 significantly surpassing the analyst consensus of $2.45. Revenue for the quarter also exceeded expectations, coming in at $890.3 million against an anticipated $840.29 million. This strong performance, building on a solid third quarter 2024 where net income was $199.1 million compared to $119.9 million in the prior year, typically leads to positive investor sentiment and stock appreciation. 2. Robust Performance and Elevated Freight Rates in China Service

The company's China service was consistently highlighted as the primary driver for year-over-year increases in both Ocean Transportation and consolidated operating income during the third and fourth quarters of 2024. This was attributed to strong freight demand and significantly higher year-over-year freight rates for Matson's expedited CLX and MAX services. A resilient U.S. economy and stable consumer demand, coupled with tighter supply chain conditions, supported these elevated rates.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MATX Return43%60%-30%78%24%-16%200%
Peers Return-1%27%-9%24%17%11%85%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MATX Win Rate50%58%50%75%67%40% 
Peers Win Rate28%32%32%38%37%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MATX Max Drawdown-38%-0%-32%-9%-6%-34% 
Peers Max Drawdown-32%-2%-13%-6%-2%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KEX, CMDB, OSG, MATX, CMRE. See MATX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMATXS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-54.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven119.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven421 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-38.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven101 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-38.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven62.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven164 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-72.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven259.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1609 days1480 days

Compare to KEX, CMDB, OSG, MATX, CMRE


In The Past

Matson's stock fell -54.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/29/2022. A -54.4% loss requires a 119.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Matson (MATX)

Better Bets than Matson (MATX)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MATX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
MATX_8312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield08312022MATXMatsonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.6%21.4%-22.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
MATX_8312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield08312022MATXMatsonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.6%21.4%-22.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Matson

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MATXKEXCMDBOSGCMREMedian
NameMatson Kirby Costamar.Octave S.Costamare 
Mkt Price114.16112.9616.618.8416.1416.61
Mkt Cap3.66.3--1.93.6
Rev LTM3,3833,275-2502,0852,680
Op Inc LTM490467--448467
FCF LTM162261--127272211
FCF 3Y Avg307213--1254233
CFO LTM545584--127522534
CFO 3Y Avg606542--1472507

Growth & Margins

MATXKEXCMDBOSGCMREMedian
NameMatson Kirby Costamar.Octave S.Costamare 
Rev Chg LTM1.9%2.4%-143.9%47.5%25.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-8.9%9.7%-253.2%23.7%16.7%
Rev Chg Q-8.5%3.8%--4.9%-0.3%-2.6%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.4%1.0%--1.3%-0.0%-0.7%
Op Mgn LTM14.5%14.3%--21.5%14.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.4%11.9%--27.3%13.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-2.1%0.2%---0.3%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM16.1%17.8%--51.0%25.1%17.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg18.5%17.1%-309.5%30.1%24.3%
FCF/Rev LTM4.8%8.0%--51.0%13.0%6.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.4%6.7%-309.5%16.1%12.8%

Valuation

MATXKEXCMDBOSGCMREMedian
NameMatson Kirby Costamar.Octave S.Costamare 
Mkt Cap3.66.3--1.93.6
P/S0.91.9--0.70.9
P/EBIT5.714.8--3.25.7
P/E7.221.0--4.57.2
P/CFO5.710.9--2.75.7
Total Yield14.2%4.8%--26.6%14.2%
Dividend Yield0.4%0.0%--4.1%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg8.1%3.6%--16.1%8.1%
D/E0.20.2--1.10.2
Net D/E0.20.2--0.70.2

Returns

MATXKEXCMDBOSGCMREMedian
NameMatson Kirby Costamar.Octave S.Costamare 
1M Rtn14.6%8.3%29.1%-29.8%21.8%
3M Rtn12.2%27.4%62.7%-37.0%32.2%
6M Rtn2.0%1.4%85.6%-90.6%43.8%
12M Rtn-24.0%-8.4%--64.4%-8.4%
3Y Rtn84.0%58.9%--149.0%84.0%
1M Excs Rtn14.6%8.3%29.1%-29.9%21.9%
3M Excs Rtn4.4%19.9%54.1%-31.1%25.5%
6M Excs Rtn-12.7%-13.3%70.9%-75.8%29.1%
12M Excs Rtn-38.1%-24.3%--50.9%-24.3%
3Y Excs Rtn16.7%-3.8%--73.3%16.7%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Ocean Transportation2,4773,5453,1331,8541,667
Logistics618798792529536
Total3,0954,3433,9252,3832,203


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Ocean Transportation2951,2811,13824591
Logistics4872503638
Total3431,3541,188280129


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,170,637
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-3.6%
Average Daily Volume437,788
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.67
Basic Shares Quantity31,500,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251105202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025801202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025506202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024228202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022802202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021