Matson (MATX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $114.04 | Market Cap: $3.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Marine Transportation
Matson (MATX)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $114.04Market Cap: $3.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Marine Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 5.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -26% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 14%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 10%, FCF Yield is 5.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -26% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -8.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -8.5% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MATX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points that would explain a significant movement in Matson's stock price, based on the most recent available information:
1. Strong Financial Performance Exceeding Expectations
Matson reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024, with adjusted earnings per share of $3.80 significantly surpassing the analyst consensus of $2.45. Revenue for the quarter also exceeded expectations, coming in at $890.3 million against an anticipated $840.29 million. This strong performance, building on a solid third quarter 2024 where net income was $199.1 million compared to $119.9 million in the prior year, typically leads to positive investor sentiment and stock appreciation.
2. Robust Performance and Elevated Freight Rates in China Service
The company's China service was consistently highlighted as the primary driver for year-over-year increases in both Ocean Transportation and consolidated operating income during the third and fourth quarters of 2024. This was attributed to strong freight demand and significantly higher year-over-year freight rates for Matson's expedited CLX and MAX services. A resilient U.S. economy and stable consumer demand, coupled with tighter supply chain conditions, supported these elevated rates.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MATX Return | 43% | 60% | -30% | 78% | 24% | -16% | 200% |
| Peers Return | -1% | 27% | -9% | 24% | 17% | 11% | 85% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MATX Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 50% | 75% | 67% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 28% | 32% | 32% | 38% | 37% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MATX Max Drawdown | -38% | -0% | -32% | -9% | -6% | -34% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -2% | -13% | -6% | -2% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KEX, CMDB, OSG, MATX, CMRE. See MATX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MATX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 421 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -38.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 101 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 62.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 164 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -72.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 259.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1609 days | 1480 days |
Compare to KEX, CMDB, OSG, MATX, CMRE
In The Past
Matson's stock fell -54.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/29/2022. A -54.4% loss requires a 119.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Would You Still Hold Matson Stock If It Fell 30%? | Return | ||
| MATX Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Matson Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 24.3% in 2024 and 17.0% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
| Matson (MATX) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Matson (MATX) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Matson (MATX) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Matson (MATX) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Matson vs. Freeport-McMoRan: MATX stock's substantially higher valuation vs. FCX appears counterintuitive | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Matson vs. Deckers Outdoor: MATX stock's significantly higher valuation vs. DECK appears counterintuitive | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| Matson vs. PACCAR: MATX stock's substantially higher valuation vs. PCAR appears counterintuitive | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| KEX’s 15% Decline in a Month Brings Valuations Into Focus – Is MATX a Better Deal? | August 13th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MATX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 08312022 | MATX | Matson | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.6% | 21.4% | -22.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 08312022 | MATX | Matson | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.6% | 21.4% | -22.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Matson
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 16.61 |
| Mkt Cap | 3.6 |
| Rev LTM | 2,680 |
| Op Inc LTM | 467 |
| FCF LTM | 211 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 233 |
| CFO LTM | 534 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 507 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 25.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | -2.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 24.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 3.6 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | 5.7 |
| P/E | 7.2 |
| P/CFO | 5.7 |
| Total Yield | 14.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 21.8% |
| 3M Rtn | 32.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 43.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -8.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 84.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 21.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 25.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 29.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -24.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 16.7% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2282025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |