ExlService (EXLS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $40.02 | Market Cap: $6.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Data Processing & Outsourced Services
ExlService (EXLS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $40.02Market Cap: $6.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Data Processing & Outsourced Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.1%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Automation & Robotics, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Automation & Robotics, and Digital Health & Telemedicine. Themes include AI Software Platforms, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -7.1%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
EXLS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -8.2% stock movement for ExlService (EXLS) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Market reaction to Q3 2025 Earnings: Despite reporting strong Q3 2025 results on October 28, 2025, which included an earnings per share (EPS) beat and raised full-year guidance, the stock experienced a decline. This was largely attributed to market concerns over a slight revenue shortfall compared to analyst consensus estimates.
2. Concerns regarding intensifying competition in AI-driven business services: The positive aspects of the Q3 earnings report were overshadowed by investor anxieties about increasing competition within the AI-driven business services sector, which contributed to the stock's downward pressure.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| EXLS Return | 23% | 70% | 17% | -9% | 44% | -10% | 186% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 39% | -24% | 11% | -1% | -13% | 14% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| EXLS Win Rate | 75% | 75% | 58% | 50% | 75% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 60% | 42% | 58% | 52% | 42% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| EXLS Max Drawdown | -38% | -10% | -22% | -26% | -6% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -38% | -10% | -38% | -20% | -26% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IBM, ACN, EPAM, G, XRX. See EXLS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | EXLS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 49.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 86.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 230 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 179 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 424.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1439 days | 1480 days |
Compare to IBM, ACN, EPAM, G, XRX
In The Past
ExlService's stock fell -33.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/10/2022. A -33.3% loss requires a 49.9% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to EXLS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 01312022 | EXLS | ExlService | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 39.5% | 41.6% | -5.8% |
| 03312020 | EXLS | ExlService | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 26.9% | 73.3% | -10.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| 01312022 | EXLS | ExlService | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 39.5% | 41.6% | -5.8% |
| 03312020 | EXLS | ExlService | Dip Buy | DB | Growth | FCF YieldDip Buy with Growth and High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with growth, and significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) | 26.9% | 73.3% | -10.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for ExlService
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 122.60 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.5 |
| Rev LTM | 5,736 |
| Op Inc LTM | 630 |
| FCF LTM | 551 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 534 |
| CFO LTM | 616 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 590 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.5 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/EBIT | 15.6 |
| P/E | 21.3 |
| P/CFO | 15.0 |
| Total Yield | 4.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.9% |
| 12M Rtn | -14.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | -0.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 6.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -29.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -70.2% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |