Tearsheet

Delta Air Lines (DAL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $67.85 | Market Cap: $44.0 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines

Delta Air Lines (DAL)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $67.85
Market Cap: $44.0 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Passenger Airlines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Renewable Fuel Production.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Renewable Fuel Production.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

DAL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested period from August 31, 2025, to today (December 4, 2025) is in the future. As an AI, I do not have access to real-time future stock market data or events. Therefore, I cannot provide an explanation for a hypothetical 9.6% stock movement within this future timeframe. However, based on the most recent available information for Delta Air Lines (DAL) leading up to the current date, here are some key points that *would* typically influence an airline's stock performance: 1. Q3 2025 Earnings Beat: Delta Air Lines reported stronger-than-expected results for Q3 2025, surpassing earnings and revenue forecasts. The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.71, exceeding the expected $1.53, and revenue reached $15.2 billion, slightly above the $15.04 billion forecast. This strong performance, which included a stock surge of over 8% in pre-market trading following the announcement, reflects effective cost management and a strategic focus on high-margin segments. 2. Positive Outlook and Guidance: Despite a reported $200 million impact on Q4 pre-tax profitability due to a recent government shutdown, Delta maintained a healthy demand outlook for the December quarter and strong trends for early 2026. The company projects a double-digit operating margin in Q4 2025, with full-year earnings guidance around $6 per share, in the upper half of its July guidance range, and an updated full-year free cash flow outlook of $3.5 billion to $4 billion. 3.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
DAL Return-31%-3%-16%23%52%9%15%
Peers Return-23%0%-11%3%52%-6%1%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DAL Win Rate33%50%50%42%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate19%38%31%37%44%38% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DAL Max Drawdown-67%-17%-28%-6%-8%-41% 
Peers Max Drawdown-41%-7%-25%-20%-18%-31% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UAL, OSW, ULCC, CAKR, RJET. See DAL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventDALS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-45.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven84.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven588 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-69.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven223.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1636 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven190 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-81.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven447.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1604 days1480 days

Compare to UAL, OSW, ULCC, CAKR, RJET


In The Past

Delta Air Lines's stock fell -45.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2021. A -45.8% loss requires a 84.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Delta Air Lines (DAL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to DAL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Delta Air Lines

Peers to compare with:

Financials

DALUALOSWULCCCAKRRJETMedian
NameDelta Ai.United A.OneSpaWo.Frontier Cambodia.Republic. 
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DALUALOSWULCCCAKRRJETMedian
NameDelta Ai.United A.OneSpaWo.Frontier Cambodia.Republic. 
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DALUALOSWULCCCAKRRJETMedian
NameDelta Ai.United A.OneSpaWo.Frontier Cambodia.Republic. 
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Returns

DALUALOSWULCCCAKRRJETMedian
NameDelta Ai.United A.OneSpaWo.Frontier Cambodia.Republic. 
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Airline54,66945,60526,67015,94546,910
Refinery7,57210,7066,0543,1435,558
Intersegment Sales/Other-4,193-5,729-2,825-1,993-5,461
Total58,04850,58229,89917,09547,007


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Airline5,1362,8841,888-12,2536,542
Refinery385777-2-21676
Total5,5213,6611,886-12,4696,618


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Airline71,52969,35570,41770,54862,793
Refinery2,1743,0392,0991,4481,739
Intersegment Sales/Other-59-106-57  
Total73,64472,28872,45971,99664,532


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity16,510,050
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-3.9%
Average Daily Volume8,016,026
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.06
Basic Shares Quantity649,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251009202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025710202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025409202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024211202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241010202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024711202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024410202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023212202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231012202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023713202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023413202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022210202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221013202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022713202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022413202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021211202210-K 12/31/2021