Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $67.85 | Market Cap: $44.0 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Airlines
Delta Air Lines (DAL)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $67.85Market Cap: $44.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Airlines
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Renewable Fuel Production. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Renewable Fuel Production. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DAL Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested period from August 31, 2025, to today (December 4, 2025) is in the future. As an AI, I do not have access to real-time future stock market data or events. Therefore, I cannot provide an explanation for a hypothetical 9.6% stock movement within this future timeframe. However, based on the most recent available information for Delta Air Lines (DAL) leading up to the current date, here are some key points that *would* typically influence an airline's stock performance: 1. Q3 2025 Earnings Beat: Delta Air Lines reported stronger-than-expected results for Q3 2025, surpassing earnings and revenue forecasts. The company posted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.71, exceeding the expected $1.53, and revenue reached $15.2 billion, slightly above the $15.04 billion forecast. This strong performance, which included a stock surge of over 8% in pre-market trading following the announcement, reflects effective cost management and a strategic focus on high-margin segments. 2. Positive Outlook and Guidance: Despite a reported $200 million impact on Q4 pre-tax profitability due to a recent government shutdown, Delta maintained a healthy demand outlook for the December quarter and strong trends for early 2026. The company projects a double-digit operating margin in Q4 2025, with full-year earnings guidance around $6 per share, in the upper half of its July guidance range, and an updated full-year free cash flow outlook of $3.5 billion to $4 billion. 3.
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Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DAL Return | -31% | -3% | -16% | 23% | 52% | 9% | 15% |
| Peers Return | -23% | 0% | -11% | 3% | 52% | -6% | 1% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DAL Win Rate | 33% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 19% | 38% | 31% | 37% | 44% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DAL Max Drawdown | -67% | -17% | -28% | -6% | -8% | -41% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -41% | -7% | -25% | -20% | -18% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UAL, OSW, ULCC, CAKR, RJET. See DAL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DAL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -45.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 588 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -69.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 223.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1636 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 190 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -81.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 447.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1604 days | 1480 days |
Compare to UAL, OSW, ULCC, CAKR, RJET
In The Past
Delta Air Lines's stock fell -45.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2021. A -45.8% loss requires a 84.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DAL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Delta Air Lines
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airline | 54,669 | 45,605 | 26,670 | 15,945 | 46,910 |
| Refinery | 7,572 | 10,706 | 6,054 | 3,143 | 5,558 |
| Intersegment Sales/Other | -4,193 | -5,729 | -2,825 | -1,993 | -5,461 |
| Total | 58,048 | 50,582 | 29,899 | 17,095 | 47,007 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airline | 5,136 | 2,884 | 1,888 | -12,253 | 6,542 |
| Refinery | 385 | 777 | -2 | -216 | 76 |
| Total | 5,521 | 3,661 | 1,886 | -12,469 | 6,618 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airline | 71,529 | 69,355 | 70,417 | 70,548 | 62,793 |
| Refinery | 2,174 | 3,039 | 2,099 | 1,448 | 1,739 |
| Intersegment Sales/Other | -59 | -106 | -57 | ||
| Total | 73,644 | 72,288 | 72,459 | 71,996 | 64,532 |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10092025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7102025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2112025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10102024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7112024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4102024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2122024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10122023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7132023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4132023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10132022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7132022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4132022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2112022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
