Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5%
Key risks
ATI key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on cyclical aerospace and defense markets, Show more.
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Lightweight Composites, Commercial Space Exploration, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Lightweight Composites, Commercial Space Exploration, Show more.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5%
4 Key risks
ATI key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on cyclical aerospace and defense markets, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

ATI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

ATI's stock experienced a significant movement of 39.1% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, primarily driven by strong financial performance and positive market sentiment.

1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: ATI reported robust third-quarter 2025 results on October 28, 2025, with sales of $1.13 billion, marking a 7% year-over-year increase. Net income attributable to ATI surged by 33% year-over-year to $110 million, and earnings per share (EPS) were $0.78, compared to $0.57 in the third quarter of 2024. Adjusted EPS of $0.85 notably surpassed analyst estimates of approximately $0.74, leading to a positive market reaction.

2. Exceptional Growth in Aerospace & Defense Segment: A key driver of the strong financial performance was the aerospace and defense sector, which achieved record sales of $793 million. This segment accounted for 70% of ATI's total sales in Q3 2025 and demonstrated a significant 21% year-over-year increase, reflecting robust demand for the company's high-performance materials and solutions in these critical markets.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
ATI Return-19%-5%87%52%21%97%426%
Peers Return
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
ATI Win Rate50%50%75%50%58%83% 
Peers Win Rate 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
ATI Max Drawdown-75%-16%0%-1%-15%-24% 
Peers Max Drawdown 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IIIN, APEX, BETA, DFSC, FLY. See ATI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventATIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-43.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven86 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-74.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven295.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven337 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-42.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven72.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven973 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-87.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven679.4%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to IIIN, APEX, BETA, DFSC, FLY


In The Past

ATI's stock fell -43.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/27/2021. A -43.3% loss requires a 76.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About ATI (ATI)

Better Bets than ATI (ATI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to ATI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for ATI

Peers to compare with:

Financials

ATIIIINAPEXBETADFSCFLYMedian
NameATI Insteel .APEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T.Firefly . 
Mkt Price107.8933.13-27.972.6218.5327.97
Mkt Cap14.80.6---1.71.7
Rev LTM4,583648--4111379
Op Inc LTM63154---9-25223
FCF LTM44419---9-2015
FCF 3Y Avg15357---11-57
CFO LTM67927---9-1789
CFO 3Y Avg37276---10-76

Growth & Margins

ATIIIINAPEXBETADFSCFLYMedian
NameATI Insteel .APEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T.Firefly . 
Rev Chg LTM7.7%22.4%--166.4%-22.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg8.6%-5.9%--94.3%-8.6%
Rev Chg Q7.1%32.1%--330.2%37.6%34.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.6%7.1%--35.8%8.2%7.7%
Op Mgn LTM13.8%8.4%---209.1%-226.9%-100.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg12.4%5.8%---699.5%-5.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%1.7%--86.7%-10.4%1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM14.8%4.2%---212.3%-160.0%-77.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.4%12.4%---716.7%-8.4%
FCF/Rev LTM9.7%2.9%---216.3%-181.0%-89.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.3%9.2%---777.8%-3.3%

Valuation

ATIIIINAPEXBETADFSCFLYMedian
NameATI Insteel .APEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T.Firefly . 
Mkt Cap14.80.6---1.71.7
P/S2.41.2---15.62.4
P/EBIT16.113.9----6.813.9
P/E25.118.2----5.118.2
P/CFO16.427.5----9.816.4
Total Yield4.0%8.2%----19.6%4.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.8%---0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.9%8.9%----4.9%
D/E0.20.0---0.00.0
Net D/E0.1-0.0----0.5-0.0

Returns

ATIIIINAPEXBETADFSCFLYMedian
NameATI Insteel .APEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T.Firefly . 
1M Rtn9.3%12.7%--0.1%-15.8%-4.9%-0.1%
3M Rtn37.5%-10.5%---21.8%-57.3%-16.2%
6M Rtn31.3%-1.7%----14.8%
12M Rtn95.3%15.4%----55.3%
3Y Rtn267.7%56.8%----162.3%
1M Excs Rtn8.5%12.0%--0.8%-16.5%-5.6%-0.8%
3M Excs Rtn32.7%-14.3%---25.4%-60.4%-19.9%
6M Excs Rtn18.9%-14.1%----2.4%
12M Excs Rtn79.9%4.9%----42.4%
3Y Excs Rtn191.4%-26.5%----82.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Advanced Alloys & Solutions (AA&S)2,3372,4341,7621,9482,392
High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC)2,3021,8161,2481,2352,054
Elimination of intersegment sales-465-413-211-201-324
Total4,1743,8362,8002,9824,122


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Advanced Alloys & Solutions (AA&S)1,9971,9811,9141,6642,621
High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC)1,9911,7491,6251,5952,325
Cash and cash equivalents and other862710740771624
Deferred Taxes13656564
Total4,9854,4464,2854,0355,635


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,046,784
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202510.0%
Average Daily Volume1,205,963
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.53
Basic Shares Quantity137,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.2%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/28/20257.4%7.5%8.3%
7/31/2025-18.4%-21.0%-16.7%
5/1/202514.5%28.3%46.5%
2/4/20259.9%9.1%-0.2%
10/29/2024-10.1%-15.4%-4.1%
8/6/2024-1.8%1.8%-1.9%
4/30/202415.0%13.8%16.4%
2/1/2024-5.7%-1.8%20.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive161414
# Negative799
Median Positive8.5%11.9%16.4%
Median Negative-6.9%-4.8%-3.5%
Max Positive17.1%28.3%72.8%
Max Negative-18.4%-21.0%-16.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/28/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/29/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/30/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/29/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/29/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024430202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022224202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021