ATI (ATI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $107.8 | Market Cap: $14.8 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
ATI (ATI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $107.8Market Cap: $14.8 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5% | Key risksATI key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on cyclical aerospace and defense markets, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Lightweight Composites, Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Lightweight Composites, Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -2.5%, Dist 3Y High is -2.5% |
| Key risksATI key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on cyclical aerospace and defense markets, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ATI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
ATI's stock experienced a significant movement of 39.1% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, primarily driven by strong financial performance and positive market sentiment.
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: ATI reported robust third-quarter 2025 results on October 28, 2025, with sales of $1.13 billion, marking a 7% year-over-year increase. Net income attributable to ATI surged by 33% year-over-year to $110 million, and earnings per share (EPS) were $0.78, compared to $0.57 in the third quarter of 2024. Adjusted EPS of $0.85 notably surpassed analyst estimates of approximately $0.74, leading to a positive market reaction.
2. Exceptional Growth in Aerospace & Defense Segment: A key driver of the strong financial performance was the aerospace and defense sector, which achieved record sales of $793 million. This segment accounted for 70% of ATI's total sales in Q3 2025 and demonstrated a significant 21% year-over-year increase, reflecting robust demand for the company's high-performance materials and solutions in these critical markets.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ATI Return | -19% | -5% | 87% | 52% | 21% | 97% | 426% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ATI Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 75% | 50% | 58% | 83% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ATI Max Drawdown | -75% | -16% | 0% | -1% | -15% | -24% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: IIIN, APEX, BETA, DFSC, FLY. See ATI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ATI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 86 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -74.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 295.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 973 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -87.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 679.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to IIIN, APEX, BETA, DFSC, FLY
In The Past
ATI's stock fell -43.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/27/2021. A -43.3% loss requires a 76.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| ATI Earnings Notes | |||
| Would You Still Hold ATI Stock If It Fell 30%? | Return | ||
| Is The 23.4% Decline In ATI (ATI) Stock A Dip Buying Opportunity? | Actionable | ||
| Is The 24.6% Decline In ATI (ATI) Stock A Dip Buying Opportunity? | Actionable | ||
| How Does ATI Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Is The 21.0% Decline In ATI (ATI) Stock A Dip Buying Opportunity? | Actionable | ||
| Better Bet Than ATI Stock: Pay Less Than ATI To Get More From CCL, PR | |||
| Better Bet Than ATI Stock: Pay Less Than ATI To Get More From GTLS, POWL | |||
| Is The 20.8% Decline In ATI (ATI) Stock A Dip Buying Opportunity? | Actionable | ||
| ATI Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Mid Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 30th, 2025 | ||
| RTX vs ATI: Which Stock Could Rally? | October 22nd, 2025 | ||
| As ATI Surges 7.0% in a Day, TDG’s Story Stands Out | September 27th, 2025 | ||
| ATI Shares Tumbled 23%, Opportunity Or Trap? | August 25th, 2025 | ||
| ATI Stock Has Fallen 25%, Is It Time To Get In? | August 20th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ATI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for ATI
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 27.97 |
| Mkt Cap | 1.7 |
| Rev LTM | 379 |
| Op Inc LTM | 23 |
| FCF LTM | 5 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 57 |
| CFO LTM | 9 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 76 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 22.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 34.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -100.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -77.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -89.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 1.7 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | 13.9 |
| P/E | 18.2 |
| P/CFO | 16.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -16.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 55.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 162.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 42.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 82.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Alloys & Solutions (AA&S) | 2,337 | 2,434 | 1,762 | 1,948 | 2,392 |
| High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC) | 2,302 | 1,816 | 1,248 | 1,235 | 2,054 |
| Elimination of intersegment sales | -465 | -413 | -211 | -201 | -324 |
| Total | 4,174 | 3,836 | 2,800 | 2,982 | 4,122 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Advanced Alloys & Solutions (AA&S) | 1,997 | 1,981 | 1,914 | 1,664 | 2,621 |
| High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC) | 1,991 | 1,749 | 1,625 | 1,595 | 2,325 |
| Cash and cash equivalents and other | 862 | 710 | 740 | 771 | 624 |
| Deferred Taxes | 136 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 64 |
| Total | 4,985 | 4,446 | 4,285 | 4,035 | 5,635 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/28/2025 | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% |
| 7/31/2025 | -18.4% | -21.0% | -16.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | 14.5% | 28.3% | 46.5% |
| 2/4/2025 | 9.9% | 9.1% | -0.2% |
| 10/29/2024 | -10.1% | -15.4% | -4.1% |
| 8/6/2024 | -1.8% | 1.8% | -1.9% |
| 4/30/2024 | 15.0% | 13.8% | 16.4% |
| 2/1/2024 | -5.7% | -1.8% | 20.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 14 | 14 |
| # Negative | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 8.5% | 11.9% | 16.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.9% | -4.8% | -3.5% |
| Max Positive | 17.1% | 28.3% | 72.8% |
| Max Negative | -18.4% | -21.0% | -16.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2212025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2242023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |