ATI (ATI)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $153.5 | Market Cap: $20.9 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
ATI (ATI)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $153.5Market Cap: $20.9 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Lightweight Composites, Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 33x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 34x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 194% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 88% Key risksATI key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on cyclical aerospace and defense markets, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Lightweight Composites, Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 33x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 34x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 52x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly12M Rtn12 month market price return is 194% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 88% |
| Key risksATI key risks include [1] its heavy dependence on cyclical aerospace and defense markets, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. ATI reported stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 earnings and provided optimistic full-year 2026 guidance. The company's Q4 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.93, reported on February 3, 2026, exceeded analyst estimates of $0.88 by 5.68%. Additionally, ATI issued guidance for fiscal year 2026, targeting adjusted EBITDA between $975 million and $1.025 billion, which at the midpoint represents a 16% increase over 2025, and adjusted EPS in the range of $3.99 to $4.27.
2. Accelerating demand in the aerospace and defense markets significantly boosted revenue. ATI's strategic focus on these sectors saw aerospace and defense sales climb to 68% of Q4 2025 sales, up from 65% in Q4 2024, with projections for it to exceed 70% of 2026 revenue. This growth was driven by increasing commercial aerospace demand, including narrow-body and wide-body aircraft, and a notable 127% surge in missile-related sales within the defense segment.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 34.4% change in ATI stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 46.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 114.76 | 154.26 | 34.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,583 | 4,587 | 0.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.7% | 8.8% | -9.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.3 | 51.9 | 46.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 137 | 136 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 34.4% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ATI | 34.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.2% | 56.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 11.2% | 78.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 89.6% change in ATI stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 90.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 81.34 | 154.26 | 89.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,509 | 4,587 | 1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.3% | 8.8% | -4.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 27.2 | 51.9 | 90.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 140 | 136 | 2.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 89.6% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ATI | 89.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 54.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.2% | 72.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 196.5% change in ATI stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 157.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 52.03 | 154.26 | 196.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,362 | 4,587 | 5.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.4% | 8.8% | 4.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.1 | 51.9 | 157.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 142 | 136 | 4.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 196.5% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ATI | 196.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 61.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 33.0% | 69.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 290.9% change in ATI stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 228.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 39.46 | 154.26 | 290.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 3,836 | 4,587 | 19.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.4% | 8.8% | 4.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.8 | 51.9 | 228.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 129 | 136 | -4.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 290.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| ATI | 290.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 79.8% | 52.8% |
| Sector (XLI) | 77.8% | 60.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ATI Return | -5% | 87% | 52% | 21% | 109% | 34% | 819% |
| Peers Return | 92% | -12% | 25% | -13% | 11% | -27% | 46% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 89% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ATI Win Rate | 50% | 75% | 50% | 58% | 83% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 17% | 29% | 25% | 29% | 35% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ATI Max Drawdown | -16% | 0% | -1% | -15% | -24% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -19% | -2% | -15% | -6% | -50% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: IIIN, DFNS, MDA, MRLN, YSS. See ATI Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ATI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -43.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 86 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -74.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 295.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 337 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -42.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 72.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 973 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -87.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 679.4% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6,252 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to IIIN, DFNS, MDA, MRLN, YSS
In The Past
ATI's stock fell -43.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/27/2021. A -43.3% loss requires a 76.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About ATI (ATI)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe ATI:
- Like Alcoa, but for titanium and superalloys.
- Like Corning, but making advanced metals like titanium and superalloys instead of specialized glass.
- Like Intel, but for the advanced metal components and materials in jet engines and medical devices.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- High-Performance Specialty Alloys: ATI manufactures a wide range of advanced alloys including titanium, nickel, cobalt, zirconium, hafnium, niobium, and other specialty and powder alloys.
- Semi-Finished Metal Products: These alloys are produced in various forms such as ingots, billets, bar, rod, wire, shapes, rectangles, seamless tubes, plate, sheet, and precision rolled strip products.
- Precision Forgings and Machined Components: The company fabricates precision forgings, components, and machined parts from its specialty materials.
- Hot-Rolling Conversion Services: ATI offers hot-rolling conversion services for various materials, including carbon steel products.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Kimberly A. Fields - President and Chief Executive Officer
Kimberly A. Fields became President and Chief Executive Officer of ATI Inc. in July 2024. She joined ATI in 2019, having previously served as President and Chief Operating Officer from June 2023 and Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer from January 2022. In 2020, she oversaw both of ATI's business segments. Prior to joining ATI, Ms. Fields held significant leadership positions at other companies, including Group President for Industrial and Energy at IDEX Corporation, Executive Vice President for EVRAZ's North American Flat Products business, and General Manager of Industrials at GE Energy. She was also a founding member of the online metals trading site MetalSpectrum.
J. Robert Foster - Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer
J. Robert Foster assumed the role of Senior Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer at ATI Inc. on January 1, 2026. A longtime leader within ATI, he most recently served as President of the company's Specialty Alloys & Components business, where he focused on improving efficiency, expanding capacity, and advancing ATI's leadership in exotic alloys. His prior positions at ATI include Vice President of Finance, Supply Chain and Capital Projects, and leading Finance for both of ATI's operating segments and the Forged Products business. Before joining ATI in 2012, Mr. Foster held senior finance roles at API Technologies Corp. and Spectrum Control Inc. He began his career as an auditor at Ernst & Young.
Robert S. Wetherbee - Executive Chairman of the Board
Robert S. Wetherbee became Executive Chairman of ATI Inc.'s Board of Directors in July 2024, following his tenure as ATI's Chief Executive Officer from January 2019 to July 2024. He also served as Board Chair starting in May 2021. His previous roles at ATI include Executive Vice President, Flat Rolled Products Group, and President of ATI Flat Rolled Products. Mr. Wetherbee was President and Chief Executive Officer of Minerals Technologies, Inc. from March 2013 to February 2014. He also led ATI's tungsten materials business as President from 2010 through 2012, prior to its sale in 2013. Before joining ATI in 2010, he had a 29-year career with Alcoa Inc., where he held various leadership roles, including Vice President of Market Strategy.
Timothy J. Harris - Senior Vice President, Chief Digital and Information Officer
Timothy J. Harris joined ATI Inc. as Senior Vice President, Chief Digital and Information Officer in May 2019. In this role, he is responsible for leading ATI's information and operations technology organization, with a focus on developing and deploying a technology strategy to support the company's growth and accelerate its digitization and automation efforts. Prior to ATI, Mr. Harris served as Chief Information Officer at Andeavor, Chief Technology Officer and head of Global Technology Services at Mylan, and Senior V.P. of Global Workplace at Aviva PLC. He began his career at Rockwell Collins, where he worked for 10 years.
Vaishali Bhatia - Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer
Vaishali Bhatia was appointed Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer for ATI Inc., effective March 20, 2024. Before joining ATI, she served at HF Sinclair Corporation as Executive Vice President since 2023, and General Counsel and Corporate Secretary since 2019. She spent over 12 years with HF Sinclair and its predecessor companies, HollyFrontier Corporation and Holly Energy Partners, L.P., where she played a key role in the acquisition of Sinclair Oil and Sinclair Transportation Company. Ms. Bhatia began her legal career as an associate at the multinational law firm Jones Day.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to ATI Inc.'s business are primarily concentrated around its significant exposure to the aerospace and defense industry, coupled with the inherent volatility of raw material costs and the cyclical nature of its served markets.
- High Dependence on Aerospace and Defense and Customer Concentration: ATI Inc. is highly reliant on the aerospace and defense industry, with its High Performance Materials & Components (HPMC) segment deriving a substantial portion of its sales (approximately 85-92%) from this sector. This creates a concentrated customer base, including major aircraft manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus. Any disruption in this industry, such as production delays at major manufacturers or the loss of a key customer, could lead to a material reduction in revenue and significantly impact ATI's financial performance.
- Raw Material Price Volatility and Supply Chain Disruptions: The company is dependent on third-party suppliers for critical raw materials, including titanium, nickel, and zirconium. Fluctuations in the price and availability of these materials, often influenced by geopolitical events and global economic conditions, can exert pressure on ATI's margins and disrupt its production capabilities.
- Cyclicality of End Markets and Declines in Non-Aerospace Segments: ATI operates in industries that are inherently cyclical, making its demand sensitive to broader economic conditions, shifts in defense spending, and energy market dynamics. While aerospace and defense markets have shown strength, the company has experienced significant sales declines in its non-aerospace markets, such as medical and specialty energy. This lack of diversification in certain segments makes ATI vulnerable to downturns in specific industrial sectors.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The rapid advancement and increasing adoption of metal additive manufacturing (3D printing) technologies pose an emerging threat to ATI. As industries such as aerospace, medical, and energy increasingly turn to additive manufacturing for producing complex components from specialty alloys like titanium and nickel-based superalloys, it could reduce demand for ATI's traditional product forms, including ingot, billet, bar, rod, wire, shapes, rectangles, seamless tubes, precision forgings, components, machined parts, plate, sheet, and precision rolled strip products. This shift could disrupt ATI's established manufacturing processes and supply chain position by enabling customers to produce parts directly from metal powders, potentially bypassing the need for ATI's extensive traditional material processing and finishing.
AI Analysis | Feedback
ATI Inc. manufactures and sells specialty materials and components across various global markets. Here's an overview of the addressable market sizes for their main products and the industries they serve globally:
- Titanium and Titanium-based Alloys: The global titanium market size was estimated at approximately USD 2.44 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach about USD 3.71 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6.2% from 2024 to 2030. Another report estimates the global titanium metal market size at USD 28.22 billion in 2024, projected to grow to USD 49.74 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 6.5%. The aerospace and defense sector is a dominant end-use segment for titanium.
- Superalloys (Nickel- and Cobalt-based alloys and Superalloys): The global superalloys market was valued at approximately USD 7.82 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 22.44 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 12.40%. Another estimate places the market at USD 9.4 billion in 2025, growing to USD 21.3 billion by 2035 with a CAGR of 8.5%. The aerospace and defense segment held the largest revenue share in the superalloys market in 2024.
- Zirconium and Related Alloys (Hafnium, Niobium): The global zirconium market size was estimated at USD 2.08 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 4.41 billion by 2034, expanding at a CAGR of 7.80% from 2025 to 2034. The global zirconium metal market size was valued at USD 185.73 million in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 256.82 million by 2033, exhibiting a CAGR of 3.6%. Zirconium finds significant application in nuclear and industrial sectors.
- Aerospace and Defense Materials Market: The global aerospace and defense materials market size was valued at USD 33.28 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 53.85 billion by 2032, at a CAGR of 6.20%. Another source estimates the market size at USD 28.59 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 49.07 billion by 2035, expanding at a CAGR of 5.55%. Metals & alloys accounted for a significant share of this market in 2025.
- Medical Materials Market: The global medical device materials market is accounted for USD 85.0 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 136.49 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 7.0%. The global medical engineered materials market size is expected to grow from USD 21.10 billion in 2023 to USD 73.34 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 13.27%. Metals such as titanium are essential for implants and surgical instruments.
- Energy Materials Market: The global energy materials market size was estimated at USD 2.3 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 4.6 trillion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 9.2%. The metals & alloys segment held the largest revenue share in this market in 2025.
- Automotive Materials Market: The global automotive materials market expanded from USD 192.97 billion in 2025 and is projected to advance at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.15%, achieving an estimated market size of USD 518.15 billion by 2032. The global advanced automotive materials market was estimated at USD 73.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 119.39 billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.52%.
- Electronics Materials Market: The global electronic materials and chemicals market size was valued at USD 73.94 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 106.11 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 6.2%. The global electronic materials market size was valued at USD 68.81 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 113.33 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 5.7%.
AI Analysis | Feedback
ATI Inc. (symbol: ATI) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key areas:
- Increased Demand in Aerospace and Defense (A&D) Markets: ATI is strategically focused on the aerospace and defense sectors, which are experiencing robust growth. The company benefits from surging global aircraft production, a transition to next-generation jet engines that require higher content of ATI's advanced materials, and expanding defense budgets. In 2025, jet engine sales grew 21% year-over-year, and defense revenue increased 14%. ATI also has significant long-term sales commitments, primarily for nickel alloys in jet engines.
- Growth in the Specialty Energy Market: The company anticipates growth in its specialty energy segment, driven by increasing demand in the nuclear and gas turbine sectors. This segment experienced 9% year-over-year growth in Q4 2025 and is projected for mid-teens sales growth in 2026, supported by multi-year customer commitments.
- Higher Material Content in Next-Generation Products: The shift towards more advanced aircraft and jet engines necessitates a greater volume and more complex specialty materials from ATI. The company is actively producing most of the advanced nickel alloys required for next-generation jet engines, increasing its revenue per aircraft or engine.
- Strategic Capacity Expansion and Operational Enhancements: ATI is investing in its production capabilities by adding vacuum induction and vacuum arc remelt lines. These investments are aimed at reallocating capacity towards high-value titanium and nickel alloys for critical components like engine-grade products and hot-section parts, thereby improving efficiency and supporting growth in differentiated nickel capabilities.
- Strong Pricing Power and Favorable Product Mix: Given ATI's specialization in unique, high-performance materials essential for critical applications in industries with high barriers to entry and long certification cycles, the company maintains strong pricing power. Its ongoing strategy to shift its product mix towards higher-margin aerospace and defense programs is expected to continue driving both revenue and margin expansion.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Share Repurchases
- As of February 2026, ATI authorized a new multi-year share repurchase program for up to $500 million, in addition to $120 million remaining from a prior authorization, totaling $620 million in future authorized repurchases.
- In 2025, the company repurchased approximately 6.4 million shares for $470 million.
- In 2024, ATI repurchased 5.3 million shares for $260 million and authorized a $700 million share repurchase program in the third quarter.
Share Issuance
- In the third quarter of 2024, ATI issued 18.8 million shares of its common stock to redeem $291.4 million of 3.5% Convertible Senior Notes due 2025.
Outbound Investments
- ATI's capital allocation strategy includes selective mergers and acquisitions (M&A) optionality, focusing on "bolt-on deals" to enhance its competitive positioning and revenue growth drivers.
- The company's focus is on strategic reinvestment in its own aerospace capacity, including specialty powder capacity and engineered components.
Capital Expenditures
- ATI's capital expenditures were $281 million in fiscal year 2025 and $239 million in fiscal year 2024.
- Capital expenditures are forecast in the high-$300 millions to low-$400 millions annually through 2025, with a focus on melt/forge capacity, powder lines, digital automation, and aerospace bottleneck relief.
- For 2026, expected capital investment, net of customer funding, is projected to be $220-$240 million, primarily focused on proprietary engine alloys and high-return opportunities, including investments in its nickel melt system and a new primary melt VIM furnace.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to ATI.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | NSP | Insperity | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | TNC | Tennant | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | HURN | Huron Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | TRU | TransUnion | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 28.15 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| Rev LTM | 1,162 |
| Op Inc LTM | 106 |
| FCF LTM | 69 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 82 |
| CFO LTM | 212 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 210 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 36.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 31.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 13.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.5 |
| P/S | 2.6 |
| P/Op Inc | 8.9 |
| P/EBIT | 8.9 |
| P/E | 11.6 |
| P/CFO | 31.0 |
| Total Yield | 8.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.9% |
| 3M Rtn | -15.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -11.4% |
| 12M Rtn | -14.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | -1.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -12.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -18.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -46.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -73.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $154.26 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 21.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 11/29/1999 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -7.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $153.09 | $110.29 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 0.8% | 39.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 46.1% | 42.9% |
| Downside Capture | 0.81 | 0.72 |
| Upside Capture | 201.46 | 216.34 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 58.7% | 45.3% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 2.90 | 1.92 | 1.65 | 1.60 | 1.57 | 1.43 |
| Up Beta | 3.02 | 1.33 | 1.16 | 0.77 | 1.44 | 1.46 |
| Down Beta | 2.28 | 2.07 | 1.28 | 1.30 | 1.51 | 1.26 |
| Up Capture | 391% | 363% | 339% | 417% | 448% | 544% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 27 | 37 | 69 | 140 | 392 |
| Down Capture | 252% | 95% | 109% | 111% | 119% | 107% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 15 | 25 | 56 | 109 | 356 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ATI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATI | 200.5% | 43.0% | 2.69 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 38.3% | 15.2% | 1.92 | 58.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 34.0% | 12.6% | 2.05 | 45.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.9% | 27.2% | 1.29 | 10.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.4% | 18.0% | 1.97 | -5.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.3% | 0.74 | 23.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.6% | 42.1% | -0.32 | 22.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ATI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATI | 46.8% | 43.0% | 1.03 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.0% | 17.3% | 0.59 | 59.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 50.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 17.8% | 0.97 | 10.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.5% | 19.1% | 0.62 | 20.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 35.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.3% | 0.34 | 17.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with ATI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATI | 24.6% | 51.9% | 0.63 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.8% | 19.9% | 0.61 | 61.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 51.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.9% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 3.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.1% | 17.8% | 0.47 | 27.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 43.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.3% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 13.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/3/2026 | 5.4% | 11.4% | 32.9% |
| 10/28/2025 | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.3% |
| 7/31/2025 | -18.4% | -21.0% | -16.7% |
| 5/1/2025 | 14.5% | 28.3% | 46.5% |
| 2/4/2025 | 9.9% | 9.1% | -0.2% |
| 10/29/2024 | -10.1% | -15.4% | -4.1% |
| 8/6/2024 | -1.8% | 1.8% | -1.9% |
| 4/30/2024 | 15.0% | 13.8% | 16.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 16 | 14 | 15 |
| # Negative | 7 | 9 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 8.1% | 10.7% | 16.4% |
| Median Negative | -6.9% | -4.8% | -3.8% |
| Max Positive | 17.1% | 28.3% | 72.8% |
| Max Negative | -18.4% | -21.0% | -16.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/20/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/21/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/24/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 216.00 Mil | 221.00 Mil | 226.00 Mil | ||||
| Q1 2026 Adjusted Earnings Per Share | 0.83 | 0.86 | 0.89 | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 975.00 Mil | 1.00 Bil | 1.02 Bil | 17.2% | Higher New | Guidance: 853.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Earnings Per Share | 3.99 | 4.13 | 4.27 | 29.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.18 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | 430.00 Mil | 460.00 Mil | 490.00 Mil | ||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/28/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 221.00 Mil | 226.00 Mil | 231.00 Mil | 10.2% | Raised | Guidance: 205.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted Earnings Per Share | 0.84 | 0.87 | 0.9 | 20.8% | Raised | Guidance: 0.72 for Q3 2025 | |
| Q4 2025 Adjusted Free Cash Flow | 330.00 Mil | 350.00 Mil | 370.00 Mil | 12.9% | Raised | Guidance: 310.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 848.00 Mil | 853.00 Mil | 858.00 Mil | 3.4% | Raised | Guidance: 825.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Adjusted Earnings Per Share | 3.15 | 3.18 | 3.21 | 6.5% | Raised | Guidance: 2.98 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Capital expenditures | 260.00 Mil | 270.00 Mil | 280.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 270.00 Mil for 2025 | |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.