West Fraser Timber Co.Ltd (WFG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $62.8 | Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Forest Products
West Fraser Timber Co.Ltd (WFG)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $62.8Market Cap: $4.9 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Forest Products
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -253 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.4% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.0% | |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -253 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.4% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.0% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.9% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WFG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The requested time period for West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd (WFG) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. Therefore, actual reasons for a -14.5% stock movement during this specific future period cannot be provided. However, based on recent analysis and news up to December 2025, several factors could influence the company's stock performance. 1. 1. Weakening Wood Products Market and Mill Closures: Recent reports from November 2025 indicate a weakening wood products market, leading RBC to see acquisition opportunities for West Fraser. West Fraser also announced the permanent closure of some lumber mills, including one in 100 Mile House, B.C., due to market challenges, and has been reducing lumber capacity. This reduction in capacity and market weakness can negatively impact investor sentiment and stock price. 2. 2. Negative Earnings and Revenue Performance: West Fraser Timber reported negative earnings per share for recent quarters, missing consensus estimates. The company also experienced a decrease in revenue in 2024. These financial results can contribute to a bearish outlook for the stock. 3.
Show moreStock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WFG Return | - | 54% | -23% | 20% | 3% | -29% | 4% |
| Peers Return | 14% | 54% | -26% | 12% | 12% | -34% | 7% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WFG Win Rate | 40% | 58% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 56% | 44% | 47% | 50% | 30% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WFG Max Drawdown | - | -0% | -26% | -10% | -12% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -29% | -2% | -35% | -19% | -15% | -36% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LPX, WFG, JCTC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WFG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -36.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.7% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 191 days | 148 days |
Compare to LPX, WFG, JCTC
In The Past
West Fraser Timber Co.Ltd's stock fell -36.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/20/2022. A -36.7% loss requires a 58.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WFG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.4% | 3.4% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.0% | 1.0% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 29.7% | 29.7% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.9% | 9.9% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for West Fraser Timber Co.Ltd
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 62.03 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.9 |
| Rev LTM | 2,822 |
| Op Inc LTM | -3 |
| FCF LTM | 13 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 72 |
| CFO LTM | 420 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 426 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -9.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -11.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -9.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -4.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -1.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -2.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 7.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 0.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.9 |
| P/S | 0.9 |
| P/EBIT | -5.0 |
| P/E | -6.3 |
| P/CFO | 12.1 |
| Total Yield | -2.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -16.1% |
| 12M Rtn | -33.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | -16.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -30.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -49.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -91.2% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lumber | 2,794 | 4,465 | 4,910 | 3,356 | 2,635 |
| North America Engineered Wood Products (NA EWP) | 2,608 | 3,789 | 4,273 | 474 | |
| Pulp & Paper | 623 | 807 | 727 | 648 | 740 |
| Europe Engineered Wood Products (EWP) | 517 | 738 | 723 | ||
| Corporate & Other | -89 | -98 | -115 | -105 | -104 |
| Panels | 463 | ||||
| Total | 6,453 | 9,701 | 10,518 | 4,373 | 3,734 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America Engineered Wood Products (NA EWP) | 316 | 1,371 | 2,125 | 94 | 27 |
| Europe Engineered Wood Products (EWP) | -3 | 117 | 113 | ||
| Corporate & Other | -35 | -18 | -83 | -19 | -8 |
| Pulp & Paper | -242 | -22 | -19 | -32 | -18 |
| Lumber | -319 | 1,111 | 1,809 | 788 | -122 |
| Total | -283 | 2,559 | 3,945 | 831 | -122 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America Engineered Wood Products (NA EWP) | 4,338 | 4,637 | 4,154 | 249 | 242 |
| Lumber | 3,606 | 3,685 | 3,557 | 3,138 | 2,748 |
| Europe Engineered Wood Products (EWP) | 691 | 730 | 953 | ||
| Corporate & Other | 446 | 465 | 1,321 | 359 | 156 |
| Pulp & Paper | 333 | 456 | 448 | 432 | 428 |
| Total | 9,414 | 9,973 | 10,433 | 4,178 | 3,574 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10222025 | 6-K 9/26/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7232025 | 6-K 6/27/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4222025 | 6-K 3/28/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2122025 | 40-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 6-K 9/27/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 6-K 6/28/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4232024 | 6-K 3/29/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 40-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 6-K 9/29/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4252023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2142023 | 40-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10262022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7272022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2152022 | 40-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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