Tearsheet

West Fraser Timber Co.Ltd (WFG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $62.8 | Market Cap: $4.9 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Forest Products

West Fraser Timber Co.Ltd (WFG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $62.8
Market Cap: $4.9 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Forest Products

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -253 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.4%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more.
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.0%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.9%
0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 29%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Resource Efficiency Solutions, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -91%
3 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -253 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -4.4%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -16%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -9.0%
5 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -6.9%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

WFG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period for West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd (WFG) from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. Therefore, actual reasons for a -14.5% stock movement during this specific future period cannot be provided. However, based on recent analysis and news up to December 2025, several factors could influence the company's stock performance. 1. 1. Weakening Wood Products Market and Mill Closures: Recent reports from November 2025 indicate a weakening wood products market, leading RBC to see acquisition opportunities for West Fraser. West Fraser also announced the permanent closure of some lumber mills, including one in 100 Mile House, B.C., due to market challenges, and has been reducing lumber capacity. This reduction in capacity and market weakness can negatively impact investor sentiment and stock price. 2. 2. Negative Earnings and Revenue Performance: West Fraser Timber reported negative earnings per share for recent quarters, missing consensus estimates. The company also experienced a decrease in revenue in 2024. These financial results can contribute to a bearish outlook for the stock. 3.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
WFG Return-54%-23%20%3%-29%4%
Peers Return14%54%-26%12%12%-34%7%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
WFG Win Rate40%58%50%42%50%30% 
Peers Win Rate52%56%44%47%50%30% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
WFG Max Drawdown--0%-26%-10%-12%-32% 
Peers Max Drawdown-29%-2%-35%-19%-15%-36% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LPX, WFG, JCTC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventWFGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-36.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven58.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven59.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven191 days148 days

Compare to LPX, WFG, JCTC


In The Past

West Fraser Timber Co.Ltd's stock fell -36.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/20/2022. A -36.7% loss requires a 58.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About West Fraser Timber Co.Ltd (WFG)

Better Bets than West Fraser Timber Co.Ltd (WFG)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to WFG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.4%3.4%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.0%1.0%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
29.7%29.7%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.9%9.9%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for West Fraser Timber Co.Ltd

Peers to compare with:

Financials

WFGLPXJCTCMedian
NameWest Fra.Louisian.Jewett-C. 
Mkt Price62.0382.752.2862.03
Mkt Cap4.95.80.04.9
Rev LTM5,7032,822442,822
Op Inc LTM-253340-3-3
FCF LTM13142-213
FCF 3Y Avg72149272
CFO LTM441420-2420
CFO 3Y Avg5334262426

Growth & Margins

WFGLPXJCTCMedian
NameWest Fra.Louisian.Jewett-C. 
Rev Chg LTM-9.2%-3.3%-9.1%-9.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-16.2%-8.8%-11.2%-11.2%
Rev Chg Q-9.0%-8.2%-20.7%-9.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-2.2%-2.0%-6.9%-2.2%
Op Mgn LTM-4.4%12.0%-6.0%-4.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-1.3%14.1%-2.9%-1.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-3.3%-2.7%-2.0%-2.7%
CFO/Rev LTM7.7%14.9%-4.9%7.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.6%15.0%4.0%8.6%
FCF/Rev LTM0.2%5.0%-5.2%0.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.1%4.9%3.6%3.6%

Valuation

WFGLPXJCTCMedian
NameWest Fra.Louisian.Jewett-C. 
Mkt Cap4.95.80.04.9
P/S0.92.20.30.9
P/EBIT-20.020.5-5.0-5.0
P/E-21.628.8-6.3-6.3
P/CFO12.114.8-6.012.1
Total Yield-2.7%4.7%-15.8%-2.7%
Dividend Yield1.9%1.2%0.0%1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.1%1.4%10.0%1.4%
D/E0.10.10.20.1
Net D/E-0.00.00.10.0

Returns

WFGLPXJCTCMedian
NameWest Fra.Louisian.Jewett-C. 
1M Rtn3.2%-3.5%-18.0%-3.5%
3M Rtn-12.7%-10.7%-36.8%-12.7%
6M Rtn-16.1%-9.7%-39.5%-16.1%
12M Rtn-33.6%-28.6%-49.8%-33.6%
3Y Rtn-16.5%34.6%-54.2%-16.5%
1M Excs Rtn3.2%-3.5%-18.0%-3.5%
3M Excs Rtn-19.6%-19.5%-43.7%-19.6%
6M Excs Rtn-30.9%-24.4%-54.2%-30.9%
12M Excs Rtn-49.8%-42.7%-60.3%-49.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-91.2%-33.1%-133.1%-91.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Lumber2,7944,4654,9103,3562,635
North America Engineered Wood Products (NA EWP)2,6083,7894,273474 
Pulp & Paper623807727648740
Europe Engineered Wood Products (EWP)517738723  
Corporate & Other-89-98-115-105-104
Panels    463
Total6,4539,70110,5184,3733,734


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
North America Engineered Wood Products (NA EWP)3161,3712,1259427
Europe Engineered Wood Products (EWP)-3117113  
Corporate & Other-35-18-83-19-8
Pulp & Paper-242-22-19-32-18
Lumber-3191,1111,809788-122
Total-2832,5593,945831-122


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
North America Engineered Wood Products (NA EWP)4,3384,6374,154249242
Lumber3,6063,6853,5573,1382,748
Europe Engineered Wood Products (EWP)691730953  
Corporate & Other4464651,321359156
Pulp & Paper333456448432428
Total9,4149,97310,4334,1783,574


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,864,426
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120258.0%
Average Daily Volume228,651
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.15
Basic Shares Quantity78,714,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025102220256-K 9/26/2025
630202572320256-K 6/27/2025
331202542220256-K 3/28/2025
12312024212202540-F 12/31/2024
9302024102320246-K 9/27/2024
630202472420246-K 6/28/2024
331202442320246-K 3/29/2024
12312023214202440-F 12/31/2023
9302023102520236-K 9/29/2023
630202372620236-K 6/30/2023
331202342520236-K 3/31/2023
12312022214202340-F 12/31/2022
9302022102620226-K 9/30/2022
630202272720226-K 6/30/2022
331202242820226-K 3/31/2022
12312021215202240-F 12/31/2021