Tearsheet

XPO (XPO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $140.73 | Market Cap: $16.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation

XPO (XPO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $140.73
Market Cap: $16.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
 
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
 
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more.
 
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 49%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

XPO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The analysis of XPO's stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, reveals several key factors that likely influenced its performance.

1. Mixed LTL Operating Metrics. XPO reported a 4.7% decrease in less-than-truckload (LTL) tonnage per day in August 2025 compared to the previous year, with shipments down 3.4% and weight per shipment down 1.3%. This indicated softening volumes. However, the company reaffirmed its third-quarter margin guidance, suggesting effective management in a subdued demand environment. Subsequently, in October 2025, XPO's North American LTL segment experienced a 3.8% year-over-year decline in weight per day. This trend continued into November 2025, with a 5.4% drop in LTL tonnage per day, driven by a 2.2% reduction in shipments per day and a 3.2% decrease in weight per shipment compared to November 2024. Despite these volume declines, XPO maintained a positive outlook on its ability to improve operating ratio.

2. Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. On October 30, 2025, XPO announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results. The company reported revenue of $2.11 billion, an increase from $2.05 billion in the same period of 2024. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.07, up from $1.02 in the third quarter of 2024, exceeding analysts' expectations. However, diluted earnings per share decreased to $0.68 from $0.79 in the prior year, and net income was $82 million compared to $95 million in 2024, primarily due to a $35 million charge for a legal matter. Despite this, the North American LTL segment showed strong performance with a 10% increase in adjusted operating income and a 5.9% rise in yield (excluding fuel).

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
XPO Return50%10%-29%163%50%3%374%
Peers Return25%50%-15%8%-10%8%67%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
XPO Win Rate58%58%42%83%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate60%58%38%55%50%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
XPO Max Drawdown-49%-7%-45%-10%-7%-30% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-6%-29%-13%-29%-29% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EXPD, CHRW, HUBG, FWRD, ODFL. See XPO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventXPOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-53.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven113.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven274 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-58.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven143.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven234 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-61.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven157.4%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven721 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-57.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven135.8%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven384 days1480 days

Compare to EXPD, CHRW, HUBG, FWRD, ODFL


In The Past

XPO's stock fell -53.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/16/2021. A -53.2% loss requires a 113.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About XPO (XPO)

Better Bets than XPO (XPO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to XPO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
XPO_12312018_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG12312018XPOXPODip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.1%39.7%-19.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
9.5%9.5%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.2%3.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
7.5%7.5%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.8%2.8%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
0.0%0.0%0.0%
XPO_12312018_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG12312018XPOXPODip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
0.1%39.7%-19.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for XPO

Peers to compare with:

Financials

XPOEXPDCHRWHUBGFWRDODFLMedian
NameXPO Expedito.C.H. Rob.Hub Forward .Old Domi. 
Mkt Price139.76148.09159.5439.9125.20150.94143.93
Mkt Cap16.520.219.12.40.831.717.8
Rev LTM8,06711,27316,5053,7292,4975,5756,821
Op Inc LTM7061,116797142361,391752
FCF LTM23281080711315921519
FCF 3Y Avg-2061,10479419744827496
CFO LTM949862877160431,461869
CFO 3Y Avg8081,152875295781,550841

Growth & Margins

XPOEXPDCHRWHUBGFWRDODFLMedian
NameXPO Expedito.C.H. Rob.Hub Forward .Old Domi. 
Rev Chg LTM-0.3%23.7%-7.1%-5.8%14.5%-5.9%-3.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg38.4%-12.5%-13.4%-11.0%22.0%-3.3%-7.2%
Rev Chg Q2.8%8.7%-10.9%-5.3%-3.7%-4.3%-4.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.7%1.9%-3.0%-1.4%-1.0%-1.1%-1.0%
Op Mgn LTM8.8%9.9%4.8%3.8%1.4%24.9%6.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg8.0%10.1%3.8%4.5%3.6%26.9%6.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.1%0.0%0.4%0.2%-0.9%-0.4%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM11.8%7.6%5.3%4.3%1.7%26.2%6.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.1%10.1%4.9%7.1%6.2%26.8%8.6%
FCF/Rev LTM2.9%7.2%4.9%3.0%0.6%16.5%4.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-2.6%9.7%4.5%4.8%4.2%14.3%4.6%

Valuation

XPOEXPDCHRWHUBGFWRDODFLMedian
NameXPO Expedito.C.H. Rob.Hub Forward .Old Domi. 
Mkt Cap16.520.219.12.40.831.717.8
P/S1.91.41.00.60.35.31.2
P/EBIT22.913.919.913.87.021.216.9
P/E45.918.326.519.7-6.927.923.1
P/CFO16.118.118.112.918.320.218.1
Total Yield2.2%6.8%5.7%6.5%-14.6%4.4%5.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.3%1.9%1.5%0.0%0.8%1.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.8%6.4%6.7%8.0%1.9%2.2%4.3%
D/E0.30.00.10.22.70.00.2
Net D/E0.2-0.00.10.22.50.00.1

Returns

XPOEXPDCHRWHUBGFWRDODFLMedian
NameXPO Expedito.C.H. Rob.Hub Forward .Old Domi. 
1M Rtn1.1%21.6%4.9%12.4%39.9%10.0%11.2%
3M Rtn11.1%23.6%24.5%8.1%-16.0%2.1%9.6%
6M Rtn21.6%33.4%67.8%19.0%40.1%-6.2%27.5%
12M Rtn-8.9%23.8%51.8%-21.5%-26.7%-30.4%-15.2%
3Y Rtn266.4%32.9%77.2%-1.3%-77.2%1.5%17.2%
1M Excs Rtn1.1%21.6%4.9%12.5%40.0%10.0%11.2%
3M Excs Rtn1.5%17.0%20.1%1.9%-22.4%-3.7%1.7%
6M Excs Rtn6.9%18.7%53.1%4.2%25.4%-20.9%12.8%
12M Excs Rtn-21.8%10.4%41.2%-35.3%-44.9%-45.9%-28.6%
3Y Excs Rtn206.7%-34.5%3.7%-73.8%-149.6%-66.2%-50.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL)4,6714,6454,1253,539 
European Transportation3,0733,0733,077  
Brokerage and Other Services   6,800 
Eliminations   -140-132
Logistics    6,093
Transportation    10,687
Total7,7447,7187,20210,19916,648


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9,374,126
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120252.8%
Average Daily Volume1,048,597
Days-to-Cover Short Interest8.94
Basic Shares Quantity118,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares7.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025430202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024207202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241030202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023208202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231030202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022213202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022808202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021216202210-K 12/31/2021