XPO (XPO)
Market Price (8/20/2026): $197.36 | Market Cap: $23.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation
XPO (XPO)
Market Price (8/20/2026): $197.36Market Cap: $23.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6% Key risksXPO key risks include [1] its substantial financial leverage and high debt load. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6% |
| Key risksXPO key risks include [1] its substantial financial leverage and high debt load. |
Qualitative Assessment
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XPO (XPO) stock has lost about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent Macroeconomic Headwinds in the Transportation and Logistics Sector.Despite XPO's strong operational performance, the broader transportation and logistics industry faced significant external pressures during the period. The Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) in May 2026 indicated transportation pricing reached an all-time high, with available capacity shrinking and inventory costs elevated. Global last-mile delivery costs rose, with major carriers announcing rate increases averaging 5.8% for fiscal Q3 2026 due to fuel surcharges and urban congestion fees. Global transportation and logistics output forecasts for 2026 were revised downward from 3.4% to 2.5%, largely due to slowing global economic growth, high energy prices impacting consumer sentiment, and inflation-driven monetary tightening. Additionally, the U.S. land transport segment was expected to see only 0.8% growth in 2026, constrained by weaker industrial activity and softer consumer spending.
2. Valuation Concerns and Divergent Analyst Sentiment.Even with XPO reporting robust fiscal Q2 2026 results (ending June 30, 2026) that beat adjusted EPS estimates by $0.22 (14-15.5%) and revenue estimates by 2.8-3.23%, the stock faced valuation scrutiny. On July 31, 2026, analysis suggested XPO was 57.9% overvalued, with a GF Value™ of $128.70 compared to its trading price of $203.24. This concern was echoed by a notable "underweight" rating and a significantly lower price objective of $105.00 issued by Morgan Stanley on May 1, 2026, contributing to negative investor sentiment despite several other analysts raising their price targets during the period.
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XPO (XPO) stock has lost about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Persistent Macroeconomic Headwinds in the Transportation and Logistics Sector.Despite XPO's strong operational performance, the broader transportation and logistics industry faced significant external pressures during the period. The Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) in May 2026 indicated transportation pricing reached an all-time high, with available capacity shrinking and inventory costs elevated. Global last-mile delivery costs rose, with major carriers announcing rate increases averaging 5.8% for fiscal Q3 2026 due to fuel surcharges and urban congestion fees. Global transportation and logistics output forecasts for 2026 were revised downward from 3.4% to 2.5%, largely due to slowing global economic growth, high energy prices impacting consumer sentiment, and inflation-driven monetary tightening. Additionally, the U.S. land transport segment was expected to see only 0.8% growth in 2026, constrained by weaker industrial activity and softer consumer spending.
2. Valuation Concerns and Divergent Analyst Sentiment.Even with XPO reporting robust fiscal Q2 2026 results (ending June 30, 2026) that beat adjusted EPS estimates by $0.22 (14-15.5%) and revenue estimates by 2.8-3.23%, the stock faced valuation scrutiny. On July 31, 2026, analysis suggested XPO was 57.9% overvalued, with a GF Value™ of $128.70 compared to its trading price of $203.24. This concern was echoed by a notable "underweight" rating and a significantly lower price objective of $105.00 issued by Morgan Stanley on May 1, 2026, contributing to negative investor sentiment despite several other analysts raising their price targets during the period.
3. Deceleration in Long-Term Revenue Growth Perception.Despite strong recent performance, some market analyses highlighted underlying concerns regarding XPO's long-term revenue growth trajectory. Over the past five years, XPO's sales grew at a compounded annual growth rate of 4.5%, which was noted as falling short of the industrials sector benchmark. More recently, annualized revenue growth over the last two years slowed to 3.4%, below its five-year trend, and analysts expected future revenue growth of 5.6% over the next 12 months, which was still below the sector average. This perceived deceleration in demand and growth could signal challenges in sustaining premium valuation, leading investors to re-evaluate the stock's long-term potential.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.3% change in XPO stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 220.13 | 197.43 | -10.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,298 | 8,573 | 3.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.2% | 4.7% | 12.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 74.0 | 57.2 | -22.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 117 | 117 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XPO | -10.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 37.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.2% | 45.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 33.3% change in XPO stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 148.11 | 197.43 | 33.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,067 | 8,573 | 6.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.1% | 4.7% | 14.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 52.6 | 57.2 | 8.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 118 | 117 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 33.3% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XPO | 33.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.4% | 42.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.3% | 56.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 64.1% change in XPO stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 39.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 120.29 | 197.43 | 64.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,009 | 8,573 | 7.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.3% | 4.7% | 9.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.1 | 57.2 | 39.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 118 | 117 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 64.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XPO | 64.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.7% | 40.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 20.9% | 54.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 185.1% change in XPO stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 89.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 69.24 | 197.43 | 185.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,731 | 8,573 | 10.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.5% | 4.7% | 89.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.8 | 57.2 | 36.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 116 | 117 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 185.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| XPO | 185.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.9% | 51.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 71.6% | 57.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| XPO Return | 10% | -29% | 163% | 50% | 4% | 49% | 374% |
| Peers Return | 95% | -28% | 62% | -3% | -15% | 43% | 166% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| XPO Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 83% | 42% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 72% | 42% | 63% | 52% | 50% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| XPO Max Drawdown | -22% | -46% | -32% | -21% | -38% | -16% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -24% | -42% | -21% | -28% | -43% | -21% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ODFL, FDX, SAIA, ARCB, TFII. See XPO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/19/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | XPO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 79 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -18.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.2% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -43.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 221 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -58.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 139.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 209 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 721 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -12.4% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 7 days | 6 days |
In The Past
XPO's stock fell -33.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 50.2% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | XPO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.2% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 108 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -43.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 221 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -58.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 139.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 209 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 721 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -51.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 296 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -36.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 58.3% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -58.7% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 142.4% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 149 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -39.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 65.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 264 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
XPO's stock fell -33.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 50.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About XPO (XPO)
XPO Logistics, Inc. is a freight transportation company offering services primarily across North America and Europe. The company specializes in moving goods for a wide range of industries, playing a crucial role in the supply chain for businesses needing to transport products efficiently.
XPO operates through two main segments. Its North American LTL (Less-Than-Truckload) segment provides comprehensive day-definite freight services for shipments that do not require an entire truck, covering regional, inter-regional, and transcontinental routes within the U.S. and cross-border services with Canada and Mexico. Additionally, the Brokerage and Other Services segment focuses on last-mile logistics for heavy goods sold via e-commerce and retail channels, along with brokering various other freight transportation modes.
The company serves a diverse customer base spanning industries such as industrial and manufacturing, retail and e-commerce, food and beverage, logistics and transportation, and consumer goods. XPO's services are essential for businesses seeking reliable and efficient transportation solutions for their supply chains.
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Like FedEx or UPS, but for businesses shipping larger, non-parcel freight.
Think of it as the Uber or Lyft for commercial freight, efficiently combining smaller business shipments into shared trucks.
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- Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) Freight Transportation: Provides efficient transportation for smaller freight shipments that do not require an entire truck, across regional, inter-regional, and international routes.
- Last Mile Logistics: Specializes in the final delivery of heavy goods purchased through e-commerce, omnichannel retail, and direct-to-consumer channels.
- Freight Brokerage: Arranges transportation for various non-core freight modes by connecting shippers with carriers.
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XPO (symbol: XPO) primarily serves other businesses rather than individuals. The provided background information does not identify specific major customer companies by name. However, XPO provides its freight transportation and logistics services to customers across a broad range of industries, including:
- Industrial and manufacturing
- Retail and e-commerce
- Food and beverage
- Logistics and transportation
- Consumer goods
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Mario Harik, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Mario Harik joined XPO in 2011 as Chief Information Officer and was among the company's first employees. He previously served as President of XPO's North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) business. Prior to XPO, he was chief information officer with Oakleaf Waste Management, which was acquired by Waste Management in July 2011. He also held positions as chief technology officer with Tallan, Inc., and was a co-founder and chief architect of web and voice applications with G3 Analyst. Mr. Harik also serves as chairman of XPO's board of directors and is on the board of directors of QXO, Inc..
Kyle Wismans, Chief Financial Officer
Kyle Wismans has led XPO's finance organization since 2023. He joined XPO in 2019 as senior vice president, financial planning and analysis, and later served as senior vice president, revenue management and finance. Before XPO, Mr. Wismans spent over a decade as an executive with General Electric Company and Baker Hughes, holding leadership roles such as head of global financial planning and analysis for two divisions and chief financial officer for a global GE business. He also held senior positions on GE's global audit staff.
Dave Bates, Chief Operating Officer
Dave Bates is responsible for all day-to-day operations within XPO's North American LTL business, encompassing service quality, customer experience, network optimization, workforce productivity, and sales. He joined XPO in 2023, following 27 years with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., where he spent 12 years as senior vice president, operations.
Wendy Cassity, Chief Legal Officer
Wendy Cassity holds a bachelor's degree in English and History from the University of Arizona and a Juris Doctorate from Columbia Law School.
Ali Faghri, Chief Strategy Officer
Ali Faghri is responsible for XPO's strategy, analysis of growth opportunities, and oversight of the company's engagement with the investment community. Before joining XPO, he was a prominent Wall Street analyst specializing in the automotive sector for over a decade, holding senior roles with global investment firms, including managing director at Guggenheim Partners, LLC.
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The key risks to XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) primarily revolve around the cyclical nature of the freight transportation industry, significant financial leverage, and the execution of its large-scale operational improvement initiatives.
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Macroeconomic Environment and Freight Volume Declines: A persistently soft freight market and broader macroeconomic downturns pose the most significant immediate threat to XPO. The company's core business, particularly its North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) and brokerage services, is highly sensitive to economic activity. Analysts have projected potential volume declines for XPO, which, given the fixed-cost nature of the LTL business, could significantly erode profitability and challenge the company's operating ratio improvement goals.
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Financial Leverage and Debt Load: XPO carries a substantial debt load, which is a key financial risk, especially in an environment of higher interest rates. The company's debt-to-equity ratio indicates a notable reliance on debt financing. This high debt level translates into significant fixed interest expenses, impacting the company's financial flexibility and profitability.
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Operational Execution of Capital Investments: XPO is currently undertaking a major "North American LTL action plan" that involves substantial capital investments to modernize and expand its network, with planned gross capital expenditures in the hundreds of millions for 2025. There is a risk that if these investments do not align perfectly with customer demand or if the new service centers fail to generate the expected yield and efficiency, the company's profitability and return on investment could suffer.
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The continued expansion of vertically integrated logistics networks by major e-commerce and retail companies, such as Amazon, which increasingly internalize their freight transportation and last-mile delivery services for heavy goods. This trend poses a threat by potentially reducing demand for XPO's services from these key customer segments, and these companies could eventually leverage their scaled infrastructure to offer logistics services to external clients, becoming direct competitors to XPO's North American LTL and Brokerage and Other Services segments.
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XPO Logistics, Inc. (symbol: XPO) operates in several addressable markets for its main products and services. These include North American less-than-truckload (LTL) freight services, freight brokerage, and last-mile logistics for heavy goods.
North American LTL Services
The North America less-than-truckload (LTL) market generated an estimated revenue of approximately $84.63 billion (USD 84,628.9 million) in 2024. This market is projected to reach approximately $120.55 billion (US$ 120,553.6 million) by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1% from 2025 to 2030.
Brokerage and Other Services (Freight Brokerage)
The addressable market for freight brokerage in North America was approximately $18.11 billion (USD 18.11 billion) in 2024. Globally, the freight brokerage market was valued at approximately $51.7 billion (USD 51.7 billion) in 2023 and is estimated to grow to approximately $85.9 billion (USD 85.9 billion) by 2032, at a CAGR of 6% between 2024 and 2032. North America accounted for 32% of the global freight brokerage market revenue share in 2023.
Brokerage and Other Services (Last-Mile Logistics for Heavy Goods)
The global last-mile delivery market for e-commerce of bulky items is valued at approximately $23.35 billion (USD 23.35 billion) in 2026 and is expected to reach approximately $49.56 billion (USD 49.56 billion) by 2035, with a CAGR of 8.85% from 2026 to 2035. North America is the dominant regional market, holding approximately 45% of this global share.
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XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next two to three years, primarily stemming from strategic initiatives within its North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) segment.
The expected drivers of future revenue growth include:
- Accelerated Yield Growth and Pricing Initiatives: XPO has consistently demonstrated its ability to achieve higher yields, excluding fuel, and implement strong pricing strategies. This focus on pricing discipline, coupled with delivering enhanced value to customers, is expected to continue driving revenue growth. For instance, in Q4 2023, the company reported yield growth, excluding fuel, of 10.3%, and in Q4 2025, LTL yield, excluding fuel, increased by 5.2% year-over-year.
- Enhanced Service Quality and Customer Expansion through LTL 2.0 Plan: XPO's "LTL 2.0 growth plan" prioritizes delivering best-in-class service, which directly translates into increased customer business and higher shipment volumes. Improvements in metrics like the damage claims ratio (reaching a new company record of 0.3% in Q4 2023) lead to greater customer satisfaction and loyalty. The company aims to provide premium customer service and is seeing increased shipments per day as a result.
- Strategic Network Expansion and Capacity Investments: XPO is actively investing in expanding its LTL network by adding service centers (doors), equipment, and drivers. This includes increasing its door count by approximately 1% to 2% in 2025, building on a 2% increase in 2024, and acquiring 28 service centers from Yellow Corporation. These investments are crucial for accommodating growing freight volumes, improving transit times, enhancing service reliability, and attracting new customers.
- Leveraging Technology and AI for Productivity and Efficiency: The company is utilizing proprietary technology, including artificial intelligence, to enhance network efficiency, optimize pricing, improve labor productivity, and elevate the customer experience. These technological advancements are expected to drive structural cost reductions and productivity gains, supporting margin expansion and allowing XPO to scale effectively with volume recovery.
- Insourcing of Linehaul Miles: XPO's strategy includes reducing linehaul miles outsourced to third-party carriers. By insourcing these miles, the company increases its network efficiency and gains greater control over its operations. This move supports incremental margins and can contribute to more competitive service offerings, thereby fostering revenue growth. The company reduced outsourced miles from 25.2% in 2020 to 6.7% in 2025.
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Share Repurchases
- XPO authorized a new $750 million share repurchase plan in March 2025, replacing a previous authorization that had $503 million remaining as of March 26, 2025.
- The company repurchased $50 million in common stock during the third quarter of 2025.
- XPO did not repurchase shares in 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024.
Share Issuance
- In 2021, XPO exchanged remaining preferred shares for 0.1 million shares of common stock.
- Also in 2021, 9.8 million warrants were exchanged for 9.2 million shares of common stock to simplify the equity capital structure.
- The company's 2016 incentive plan was amended in May 2022 to increase the number of authorized shares for stock-based compensation awards by 2.3 million.
Outbound Investments
- XPO completed the spin-off of GXO Logistics, Inc. in August 2021.
- XPO completed the sale of its North American intermodal operation in March 2022.
- XPO completed the spin-off of RXO, Inc. in November 2022.
- In December 2023, XPO acquired 28 LTL service centers and assumed leases for two additional locations from Yellow Corporation as part of the Yellow Asset Acquisition.
Capital Expenditures
- XPO's gross capital expenditures were 14.6% of revenue in 2024.
- For 2025, XPO anticipates gross capital expenditures to be between $600 million and $700 million, with a focus on expanding network capacity and enhancing operational efficiencies.
- For 2026, XPO expects total company gross capital expenditures to be between $500 million and $600 million. These investments primarily target expanding network capacity, improving service quality, and driving operational efficiencies, including substantial additions to its tractor, trailer, and service center fleet.
Peer Outperformance in Cargo Ground Transportation
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 31.4% | 131.6% | 210.1% | CDNL 3233% · STRL 2335% · FIX 2227% |
| Marine Transportation | 4 | 71.1% | 64.1% | 165.0% | MATX 218% · SFL 167% · KEX 163% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 11.6% | 58.6% | 122.8% | CAT 334% · ALSN 260% · WAB 251% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 55 | 17.3% | 84.8% | 88.8% | DFNS 2609% · ATI 1117% · FTAI 999% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -9.7% | 56.6% | 65.8% | UBER 95% · CAR 66% · LYFT -62% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 11.2% | 56.3% | 50.3% | CRS 1580% · PSIX 869% · GHM 780% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 18 | 5.9% | 36.1% | 47.9% | DXPE 545% · AIT 314% · URI 251% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 37.9% | 71.4% | 46.4% | FSTR 114% · CSX 61% · UNP 51% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation ← | 16 | 42.5% | 11.5% | 45.9% | XPO 283% · R 278% · CVLG 218% |
| Diversified Support Services | 34 | 12.0% | 37.8% | 40.3% | LIME 4287% · TH 391% · WLFC 363% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 40 | 27.8% | 40.6% | 35.9% | POWL 2456% · BE 933% · ELVA 917% |
| Building Products | 33 | -4.5% | 21.5% | 33.4% | GFF 438% · LMB 435% · PPIH 281% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 24.1% | 24.2% | 11.1% | RCMT 788% · TTI 192% · CSW 155% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 10 | 17.0% | 28.8% | 5.6% | TILE 200% · PBI 166% · EBF 59% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 28 | -6.7% | 15.9% | 3.2% | CECO 935% · ADUR 630% · NVRI 306% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -5.4% | -17.8% | -2.8% | HURN 219% · CRAI 96% · GRNQ 71% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | -6.9% | -15.5% | -18.0% | BLBD 202% · DE 76% · GENC 67% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 9.1% | -5.7% | -24.1% | LTM 2416% · UAL 163% · SKYW 155% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -30.8% | -9.6% | -25.2% | EXLS 54% · BR 10% · G -25% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 21 | 12.3% | -20.6% | -34.5% | BBSI 87% · ADP 46% · KFY 38% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -13.1% | -24.2% | -35.9% | CHRW 84% · FDX 70% · EXPD 61% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -28.4% | -16.1% | -44.8% | CIX 118% · MG 101% · BCO 50% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -67.1% | -67.5% | -57.1% | JOBY -22% · ASLE -57% · UP -100% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 201.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.2 |
| Rev LTM | 6,862 |
| Op Inc LTM | 713 |
| FCF LTM | 621 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 391 |
| CFO LTM | 1,001 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 961 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 12.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 5.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -4.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 17.2 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 24.8 |
| P/EBIT | 27.4 |
| P/E | 36.9 |
| P/CFO | 14.2 |
| Total Yield | 3.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 50.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 22.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -13.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 35.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -50.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) | 4,832 | 4,899 | 4,671 | 4,645 | 4,125 |
| European Transportation | 3,324 | 3,173 | 3,073 | 3,073 | 3,077 |
| Corporate | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 8,156 | 8,072 | 7,744 | 7,718 | 7,202 |
| $ Mil | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transportation | 507 | 752 | 646 | 539 | 438 |
| Logistics | 140 | 241 | 216 | 249 | 210 |
| Corporate | -256 | -172 | -158 | -165 | -159 |
| Total | 391 | 821 | 704 | 623 | 488 |
| $ Mil | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate | 1,009 | 372 | 98 | 26 | 17 |
| Freight Brokerage | 871 | 110 | 5 | ||
| Expedited Transportation | 193 | 35 | 22 | ||
| Freight Forwarding | 60 | 23 | 23 | ||
| Eliminations | -1,353 | -127 | -21 | -24 | -17 |
| Bounce | 5 | 2 | |||
| Concert Group Logistics | 25 | 24 | |||
| Express-1 | 25 | 23 | |||
| Total | 780 | 413 | 128 | 57 | 49 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $197.43 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 23.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/07/2003 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $206.09 | $185.33 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -4.2% | 6.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 37.2% | 43.7% |
| Downside Capture | 111.74 | 129.42 |
| Upside Capture | 62.91 | 147.87 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 36.2% | 39.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.37 | 0.81 | 1.07 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.51 |
| Up Beta | 1.62 | 0.67 | 1.41 | 1.50 | 1.62 | 1.66 |
| Down Beta | 1.01 | 1.19 | 0.67 | 1.24 | 1.03 | 1.30 |
| Up Capture | -33% | 51% | 78% | 185% | 204% | 504% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 20 | 30 | 69 | 131 | 382 |
| Down Capture | -1% | 89% | 139% | 114% | 120% | 108% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 57 | 121 | 369 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XPO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPO | 54.7% | 43.7% | 1.11 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 21.8% | 17.1% | 0.99 | 54.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.7% | 12.8% | 1.19 | 39.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.0% | 28.8% | 1.04 | 16.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 41.4% | 20.2% | 1.60 | -14.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.3% | 13.9% | 0.78 | 36.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.7% | 42.7% | -1.27 | 11.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XPO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPO | 30.3% | 46.9% | 0.72 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.2% | 17.6% | 0.58 | 60.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.2% | 0.59 | 57.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.4% | 18.6% | 0.89 | 5.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.8% | 19.6% | 0.39 | 5.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.4% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 43.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.2% | 52.6% | 0.32 | 23.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with XPO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| XPO | 31.4% | 47.1% | 0.76 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.0% | 20.0% | 0.61 | 60.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 57.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.5% | 16.2% | 0.63 | 1.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 18.1% | 0.35 | 15.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 43.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.0% | 1.00 | 12.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | -0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 4/30/2026 | 1.6% | -2.4% | -1.1% |
| 2/5/2026 | 3.4% | 12.4% | 5.1% |
| 10/30/2025 | 9.0% | 10.9% | 15.0% |
| 7/31/2025 | -9.1% | -7.0% | -1.6% |
| 4/30/2025 | 8.9% | 10.6% | 20.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | 7.8% | 6.2% | -20.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | 11.4% | 14.9% | 24.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 17 | 17 | 16 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 7.0% | 12.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -5.9% | -14.0% |
| Max Positive | 18.9% | 18.5% | 30.5% |
| Max Negative | -14.0% | -14.1% | -21.2% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2026 | -0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 4/30/2026 | 1.6% | -2.4% | -1.1% |
| 2/5/2026 | 3.4% | 12.4% | 5.1% |
| 10/30/2025 | 9.0% | 10.9% | 15.0% |
| 7/31/2025 | -9.1% | -7.0% | -1.6% |
| 4/30/2025 | 8.9% | 10.6% | 20.6% |
| 2/6/2025 | 7.8% | 6.2% | -20.5% |
| 10/30/2024 | 11.4% | 14.9% | 24.9% |
| 8/1/2024 | 0.8% | -4.6% | 0.2% |
| 5/3/2024 | 3.3% | 3.7% | -6.0% |
| 2/7/2024 | 18.9% | 18.5% | 30.5% |
| 10/30/2023 | 15.1% | 18.1% | 28.3% |
| 8/4/2023 | 4.2% | 7.0% | 11.2% |
| 5/4/2023 | 3.4% | 6.6% | 11.6% |
| 2/8/2023 | -14.0% | -14.1% | -21.2% |
| 10/31/2022 | 2.1% | 9.0% | 22.2% |
| 8/4/2022 | -2.3% | -5.9% | -14.3% |
| 5/9/2022 | 4.1% | 0.1% | 4.8% |
| 2/8/2022 | 8.3% | 8.2% | 12.5% |
| 11/2/2021 | -7.6% | -10.7% | -14.0% |
| 7/28/2021 | 2.4% | 3.7% | 6.7% |
| 5/3/2021 | 0.4% | 5.1% | 3.9% |
| 2/10/2021 | -4.0% | -3.5% | 2.0% |
| 11/5/2020 | -2.2% | 3.2% | 21.6% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 17 | 17 | 16 |
| # Negative | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 7.0% | 12.1% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -5.9% | -14.0% |
| Max Positive | 18.9% | 18.5% | 30.5% |
| Max Negative | -14.0% | -14.1% | -21.2% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/13/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/05/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/03/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/13/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/10/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/16/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/03/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/12/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/10/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/28/2019 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 8/12/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brown, Christopher Michael | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 201.94 | 3,750 | 757,262 | 6,261,046 | Form |
| 2 | Brown, Christopher Michael | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 201.41 | 1,250 | 251,762 | 7,000,005 | Form |
| 3 | Landry, Allison | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 215.61 | 2,400 | 517,472 | 1,045,509 | Form | |
| 4 | Landry, Allison | Direct | Sell | 9122025 | 135.04 | 3,250 | 438,870 | 793,342 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brown, Christopher Michael | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 201.94 | 3,750 | 757,262 | 6,261,046 | Form |
| 2 | Brown, Christopher Michael | Chief Accounting Officer | Direct | Sell | 8122026 | 201.41 | 1,250 | 251,762 | 7,000,005 | Form |
| 3 | Landry, Allison | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 215.61 | 2,400 | 517,472 | 1,045,509 | Form | |
| 4 | Landry, Allison | Direct | Sell | 9122025 | 135.04 | 3,250 | 438,870 | 793,342 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 20, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFN Partners Management, LP | $2.2 Bil | 46.6% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| One Madison Group LLC | $65.5 Mil | 7.6% | 28 | TRIM -7.5% | 13F |
| Durable Capital Partners LP | $571.2 Mil | 5.9% | 37 | TRIM -25.7% | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $250.5 Mil | 2.2% | 44 | TRIM -36.7% | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $62.3 Mil | 2.0% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Greenstone Partners & Co., LLC | $5.4 Mil | 1.4% | 9 | TRIM -85.7% | 13F |
| Hawk Ridge Capital Management LP | $17.6 Mil | 0.6% | 48 | TRIM -53.4% | 13F |
| Partners Group Holding AG | $6.0 Mil | 0.4% | 50 | TRIM -26.1% | 13F |
| Slate Path Capital LP | $19.6 Mil | 0.3% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Avenue Capital Management LP | $63.5 Mil | 4.2% | 22 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| GCM Grosvenor Holdings, LLC | $7.4 Mil | 1.0% | 22 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Greenstone Partners & Co., LLC | $5.4 Mil | 1.4% | 9 | TRIM -85.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Hawk Ridge Capital Management LP | $17.6 Mil | 0.6% | 48 | TRIM -53.4% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $250.5 Mil | 2.2% | 44 | TRIM -36.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Partners Group Holding AG | $6.0 Mil | 0.4% | 50 | TRIM -26.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Durable Capital Partners LP | $571.2 Mil | 5.9% | 37 | TRIM -25.7% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| One Madison Group LLC | $65.5 Mil | 7.6% | 28 | TRIM -7.5% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MFN Partners Management, LP | $2.2 Bil | 46.6% | 10 | Hold | 13F |
| Durable Capital Partners LP | $571.2 Mil | 5.9% | 37 | TRIM -25.7% | 13F |
| D1 Capital Partners L.P. | $250.5 Mil | 2.2% | 44 | TRIM -36.7% | 13F |
| One Madison Group LLC | $65.5 Mil | 7.6% | 28 | TRIM -7.5% | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $62.3 Mil | 2.0% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Slate Path Capital LP | $19.6 Mil | 0.3% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Hawk Ridge Capital Management LP | $17.6 Mil | 0.6% | 48 | TRIM -53.4% | 13F |
| Partners Group Holding AG | $6.0 Mil | 0.4% | 50 | TRIM -26.1% | 13F |
| Greenstone Partners & Co., LLC | $5.4 Mil | 1.4% | 9 | TRIM -85.7% | 13F |
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Cargo Ground Transportation Resources |
| Transport Topics |
| Commercial Carrier Journal (CCJ) |
| FreightWaves |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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