XPO (XPO)


Market Price (8/20/2026): $197.36 | Market Cap: $23.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation

XPO (XPO)


Market Price (8/20/2026): $197.36
Market Cap: $23.1 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more.

Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6%

Key risks
XPO key risks include [1] its substantial financial leverage and high debt load.

0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more.
3 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6%
4 Key risks
XPO key risks include [1] its substantial financial leverage and high debt load.

XPO in ETFs

Weight = XPO's share of each fund

VTI0.03%
ITOT0.03%
IWB0.03%
IJH0.67%
VB0.28%
IYT3.1%
IJK1.3%
MDYG1.3%
+18 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 8/1/2026

XPO (XPO) stock has lost about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Persistent Macroeconomic Headwinds in the Transportation and Logistics Sector.Despite XPO's strong operational performance, the broader transportation and logistics industry faced significant external pressures during the period. The Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) in May 2026 indicated transportation pricing reached an all-time high, with available capacity shrinking and inventory costs elevated. Global last-mile delivery costs rose, with major carriers announcing rate increases averaging 5.8% for fiscal Q3 2026 due to fuel surcharges and urban congestion fees. Global transportation and logistics output forecasts for 2026 were revised downward from 3.4% to 2.5%, largely due to slowing global economic growth, high energy prices impacting consumer sentiment, and inflation-driven monetary tightening. Additionally, the U.S. land transport segment was expected to see only 0.8% growth in 2026, constrained by weaker industrial activity and softer consumer spending.

2. Valuation Concerns and Divergent Analyst Sentiment.Even with XPO reporting robust fiscal Q2 2026 results (ending June 30, 2026) that beat adjusted EPS estimates by $0.22 (14-15.5%) and revenue estimates by 2.8-3.23%, the stock faced valuation scrutiny. On July 31, 2026, analysis suggested XPO was 57.9% overvalued, with a GF Value™ of $128.70 compared to its trading price of $203.24. This concern was echoed by a notable "underweight" rating and a significantly lower price objective of $105.00 issued by Morgan Stanley on May 1, 2026, contributing to negative investor sentiment despite several other analysts raising their price targets during the period.

Show more
Updated on 8/1/2026

XPO (XPO) stock has lost about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Persistent Macroeconomic Headwinds in the Transportation and Logistics Sector.Despite XPO's strong operational performance, the broader transportation and logistics industry faced significant external pressures during the period. The Logistics Managers' Index (LMI) in May 2026 indicated transportation pricing reached an all-time high, with available capacity shrinking and inventory costs elevated. Global last-mile delivery costs rose, with major carriers announcing rate increases averaging 5.8% for fiscal Q3 2026 due to fuel surcharges and urban congestion fees. Global transportation and logistics output forecasts for 2026 were revised downward from 3.4% to 2.5%, largely due to slowing global economic growth, high energy prices impacting consumer sentiment, and inflation-driven monetary tightening. Additionally, the U.S. land transport segment was expected to see only 0.8% growth in 2026, constrained by weaker industrial activity and softer consumer spending.

2. Valuation Concerns and Divergent Analyst Sentiment.Even with XPO reporting robust fiscal Q2 2026 results (ending June 30, 2026) that beat adjusted EPS estimates by $0.22 (14-15.5%) and revenue estimates by 2.8-3.23%, the stock faced valuation scrutiny. On July 31, 2026, analysis suggested XPO was 57.9% overvalued, with a GF Value™ of $128.70 compared to its trading price of $203.24. This concern was echoed by a notable "underweight" rating and a significantly lower price objective of $105.00 issued by Morgan Stanley on May 1, 2026, contributing to negative investor sentiment despite several other analysts raising their price targets during the period.

3. Deceleration in Long-Term Revenue Growth Perception.Despite strong recent performance, some market analyses highlighted underlying concerns regarding XPO's long-term revenue growth trajectory. Over the past five years, XPO's sales grew at a compounded annual growth rate of 4.5%, which was noted as falling short of the industrials sector benchmark. More recently, annualized revenue growth over the last two years slowed to 3.4%, below its five-year trend, and analysts expected future revenue growth of 5.6% over the next 12 months, which was still below the sector average. This perceived deceleration in demand and growth could signal challenges in sustaining premium valuation, leading investors to re-evaluate the stock's long-term potential.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -10.3% change in XPO stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)43020268192026Change
Stock Price ($)220.13197.43-10.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)8,2988,5733.3%
Net Income Margin (%)4.2%4.7%12.4%
P/E Multiple74.057.2-22.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1171170.0%
Cumulative Contribution-10.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2026 to 8/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
XPO-10.3% 
Market (SPY)7.0%37.0%
Sector (XLI)4.2%45.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 33.3% change in XPO stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)13120268192026Change
Stock Price ($)148.11197.4333.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)8,0678,5736.3%
Net Income Margin (%)4.1%4.7%14.5%
P/E Multiple52.657.28.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1181170.9%
Cumulative Contribution33.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 8/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
XPO33.3% 
Market (SPY)11.4%42.9%
Sector (XLI)10.3%56.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 64.1% change in XPO stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 39.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)73120258192026Change
Stock Price ($)120.29197.4364.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)8,0098,5737.0%
Net Income Margin (%)4.3%4.7%9.4%
P/E Multiple41.157.239.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)1181170.9%
Cumulative Contribution64.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2025 to 8/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
XPO64.1% 
Market (SPY)22.7%40.0%
Sector (XLI)20.9%54.3%

Fundamental Drivers

The 185.1% change in XPO stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 89.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)73120238192026Change
Stock Price ($)69.24197.43185.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)7,7318,57310.9%
Net Income Margin (%)2.5%4.7%89.8%
P/E Multiple41.857.236.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)116117-0.9%
Cumulative Contribution185.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

7/31/2023 to 8/19/2026
ReturnCorrelation
XPO185.1% 
Market (SPY)73.9%51.4%
Sector (XLI)71.6%57.3%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
XPO Return10%-29%163%50%4%49%374%
Peers Return95%-28%62%-3%-15%43%166%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%12%105%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
XPO Win Rate58%42%83%42%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate72%42%63%52%50%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
XPO Max Drawdown-22%-46%-32%-21%-38%-16% 
Peers Max Drawdown-24%-42%-21%-28%-43%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ODFL, FDX, SAIA, ARCB, TFII. See XPO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/19/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventXPOS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-33.4%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven50.2%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven108 days79 days
2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis
  % Loss-18.2%-6.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven22.2%7.1%
  Time to Breakeven15 days31 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-43.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven78.4%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven221 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-58.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven139.5%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven209 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-60.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven154.2%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven721 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-12.4%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven14.1%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven7 days6 days

Compare to ODFL, FDX, SAIA, ARCB, TFII

In The Past

XPO's stock fell -33.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 50.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventXPOS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-33.4%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven50.2%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven108 days79 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-43.9%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven78.4%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven221 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-58.3%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven139.5%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven209 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-60.7%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven154.2%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven721 days105 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-51.2%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven104.8%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven296 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-36.8%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven58.3%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven57 days15 days
2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion
  % Loss-58.7%-17.9%
  % Gain to Breakeven142.4%21.8%
  Time to Breakeven149 days123 days
2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
  % Loss-39.6%-53.4%
  % Gain to Breakeven65.7%114.4%
  Time to Breakeven264 days1085 days

Compare to ODFL, FDX, SAIA, ARCB, TFII

In The Past

XPO's stock fell -33.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 50.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About XPO (XPO)

XPO Logistics, Inc. is a freight transportation company offering services primarily across North America and Europe. The company specializes in moving goods for a wide range of industries, playing a crucial role in the supply chain for businesses needing to transport products efficiently.

XPO operates through two main segments. Its North American LTL (Less-Than-Truckload) segment provides comprehensive day-definite freight services for shipments that do not require an entire truck, covering regional, inter-regional, and transcontinental routes within the U.S. and cross-border services with Canada and Mexico. Additionally, the Brokerage and Other Services segment focuses on last-mile logistics for heavy goods sold via e-commerce and retail channels, along with brokering various other freight transportation modes.

The company serves a diverse customer base spanning industries such as industrial and manufacturing, retail and e-commerce, food and beverage, logistics and transportation, and consumer goods. XPO's services are essential for businesses seeking reliable and efficient transportation solutions for their supply chains.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Like FedEx or UPS, but for businesses shipping larger, non-parcel freight.

Think of it as the Uber or Lyft for commercial freight, efficiently combining smaller business shipments into shared trucks.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) Freight Transportation: Provides efficient transportation for smaller freight shipments that do not require an entire truck, across regional, inter-regional, and international routes.
  • Last Mile Logistics: Specializes in the final delivery of heavy goods purchased through e-commerce, omnichannel retail, and direct-to-consumer channels.
  • Freight Brokerage: Arranges transportation for various non-core freight modes by connecting shippers with carriers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

XPO (symbol: XPO) primarily serves other businesses rather than individuals. The provided background information does not identify specific major customer companies by name. However, XPO provides its freight transportation and logistics services to customers across a broad range of industries, including:

  • Industrial and manufacturing
  • Retail and e-commerce
  • Food and beverage
  • Logistics and transportation
  • Consumer goods

AI Analysis | Feedback

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AI Analysis | Feedback

Mario Harik, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Mario Harik joined XPO in 2011 as Chief Information Officer and was among the company's first employees. He previously served as President of XPO's North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) business. Prior to XPO, he was chief information officer with Oakleaf Waste Management, which was acquired by Waste Management in July 2011. He also held positions as chief technology officer with Tallan, Inc., and was a co-founder and chief architect of web and voice applications with G3 Analyst. Mr. Harik also serves as chairman of XPO's board of directors and is on the board of directors of QXO, Inc..

Kyle Wismans, Chief Financial Officer

Kyle Wismans has led XPO's finance organization since 2023. He joined XPO in 2019 as senior vice president, financial planning and analysis, and later served as senior vice president, revenue management and finance. Before XPO, Mr. Wismans spent over a decade as an executive with General Electric Company and Baker Hughes, holding leadership roles such as head of global financial planning and analysis for two divisions and chief financial officer for a global GE business. He also held senior positions on GE's global audit staff.

Dave Bates, Chief Operating Officer

Dave Bates is responsible for all day-to-day operations within XPO's North American LTL business, encompassing service quality, customer experience, network optimization, workforce productivity, and sales. He joined XPO in 2023, following 27 years with Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., where he spent 12 years as senior vice president, operations.

Wendy Cassity, Chief Legal Officer

Wendy Cassity holds a bachelor's degree in English and History from the University of Arizona and a Juris Doctorate from Columbia Law School.

Ali Faghri, Chief Strategy Officer

Ali Faghri is responsible for XPO's strategy, analysis of growth opportunities, and oversight of the company's engagement with the investment community. Before joining XPO, he was a prominent Wall Street analyst specializing in the automotive sector for over a decade, holding senior roles with global investment firms, including managing director at Guggenheim Partners, LLC.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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The key risks to XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) primarily revolve around the cyclical nature of the freight transportation industry, significant financial leverage, and the execution of its large-scale operational improvement initiatives.

  1. Macroeconomic Environment and Freight Volume Declines: A persistently soft freight market and broader macroeconomic downturns pose the most significant immediate threat to XPO. The company's core business, particularly its North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) and brokerage services, is highly sensitive to economic activity. Analysts have projected potential volume declines for XPO, which, given the fixed-cost nature of the LTL business, could significantly erode profitability and challenge the company's operating ratio improvement goals.

  2. Financial Leverage and Debt Load: XPO carries a substantial debt load, which is a key financial risk, especially in an environment of higher interest rates. The company's debt-to-equity ratio indicates a notable reliance on debt financing. This high debt level translates into significant fixed interest expenses, impacting the company's financial flexibility and profitability.

  3. Operational Execution of Capital Investments: XPO is currently undertaking a major "North American LTL action plan" that involves substantial capital investments to modernize and expand its network, with planned gross capital expenditures in the hundreds of millions for 2025. There is a risk that if these investments do not align perfectly with customer demand or if the new service centers fail to generate the expected yield and efficiency, the company's profitability and return on investment could suffer.

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AI Analysis | Feedback

The continued expansion of vertically integrated logistics networks by major e-commerce and retail companies, such as Amazon, which increasingly internalize their freight transportation and last-mile delivery services for heavy goods. This trend poses a threat by potentially reducing demand for XPO's services from these key customer segments, and these companies could eventually leverage their scaled infrastructure to offer logistics services to external clients, becoming direct competitors to XPO's North American LTL and Brokerage and Other Services segments.

AI Analysis | Feedback

XPO Logistics, Inc. (symbol: XPO) operates in several addressable markets for its main products and services. These include North American less-than-truckload (LTL) freight services, freight brokerage, and last-mile logistics for heavy goods.

North American LTL Services

The North America less-than-truckload (LTL) market generated an estimated revenue of approximately $84.63 billion (USD 84,628.9 million) in 2024. This market is projected to reach approximately $120.55 billion (US$ 120,553.6 million) by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.1% from 2025 to 2030.

Brokerage and Other Services (Freight Brokerage)

The addressable market for freight brokerage in North America was approximately $18.11 billion (USD 18.11 billion) in 2024. Globally, the freight brokerage market was valued at approximately $51.7 billion (USD 51.7 billion) in 2023 and is estimated to grow to approximately $85.9 billion (USD 85.9 billion) by 2032, at a CAGR of 6% between 2024 and 2032. North America accounted for 32% of the global freight brokerage market revenue share in 2023.

Brokerage and Other Services (Last-Mile Logistics for Heavy Goods)

The global last-mile delivery market for e-commerce of bulky items is valued at approximately $23.35 billion (USD 23.35 billion) in 2026 and is expected to reach approximately $49.56 billion (USD 49.56 billion) by 2035, with a CAGR of 8.85% from 2026 to 2035. North America is the dominant regional market, holding approximately 45% of this global share.

AI Analysis | Feedback

XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next two to three years, primarily stemming from strategic initiatives within its North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) segment.

The expected drivers of future revenue growth include:

  • Accelerated Yield Growth and Pricing Initiatives: XPO has consistently demonstrated its ability to achieve higher yields, excluding fuel, and implement strong pricing strategies. This focus on pricing discipline, coupled with delivering enhanced value to customers, is expected to continue driving revenue growth. For instance, in Q4 2023, the company reported yield growth, excluding fuel, of 10.3%, and in Q4 2025, LTL yield, excluding fuel, increased by 5.2% year-over-year.
  • Enhanced Service Quality and Customer Expansion through LTL 2.0 Plan: XPO's "LTL 2.0 growth plan" prioritizes delivering best-in-class service, which directly translates into increased customer business and higher shipment volumes. Improvements in metrics like the damage claims ratio (reaching a new company record of 0.3% in Q4 2023) lead to greater customer satisfaction and loyalty. The company aims to provide premium customer service and is seeing increased shipments per day as a result.
  • Strategic Network Expansion and Capacity Investments: XPO is actively investing in expanding its LTL network by adding service centers (doors), equipment, and drivers. This includes increasing its door count by approximately 1% to 2% in 2025, building on a 2% increase in 2024, and acquiring 28 service centers from Yellow Corporation. These investments are crucial for accommodating growing freight volumes, improving transit times, enhancing service reliability, and attracting new customers.
  • Leveraging Technology and AI for Productivity and Efficiency: The company is utilizing proprietary technology, including artificial intelligence, to enhance network efficiency, optimize pricing, improve labor productivity, and elevate the customer experience. These technological advancements are expected to drive structural cost reductions and productivity gains, supporting margin expansion and allowing XPO to scale effectively with volume recovery.
  • Insourcing of Linehaul Miles: XPO's strategy includes reducing linehaul miles outsourced to third-party carriers. By insourcing these miles, the company increases its network efficiency and gains greater control over its operations. This move supports incremental margins and can contribute to more competitive service offerings, thereby fostering revenue growth. The company reduced outsourced miles from 25.2% in 2020 to 6.7% in 2025.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • XPO authorized a new $750 million share repurchase plan in March 2025, replacing a previous authorization that had $503 million remaining as of March 26, 2025.
  • The company repurchased $50 million in common stock during the third quarter of 2025.
  • XPO did not repurchase shares in 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024.

Share Issuance

  • In 2021, XPO exchanged remaining preferred shares for 0.1 million shares of common stock.
  • Also in 2021, 9.8 million warrants were exchanged for 9.2 million shares of common stock to simplify the equity capital structure.
  • The company's 2016 incentive plan was amended in May 2022 to increase the number of authorized shares for stock-based compensation awards by 2.3 million.

Outbound Investments

  • XPO completed the spin-off of GXO Logistics, Inc. in August 2021.
  • XPO completed the sale of its North American intermodal operation in March 2022.
  • XPO completed the spin-off of RXO, Inc. in November 2022.
  • In December 2023, XPO acquired 28 LTL service centers and assumed leases for two additional locations from Yellow Corporation as part of the Yellow Asset Acquisition.

Capital Expenditures

  • XPO's gross capital expenditures were 14.6% of revenue in 2024.
  • For 2025, XPO anticipates gross capital expenditures to be between $600 million and $700 million, with a focus on expanding network capacity and enhancing operational efficiencies.
  • For 2026, XPO expects total company gross capital expenditures to be between $500 million and $600 million. These investments primarily target expanding network capacity, improving service quality, and driving operational efficiencies, including substantial additions to its tractor, trailer, and service center fleet.

Better Bets vs. XPO (XPO)

Peer Outperformance in Cargo Ground Transportation

XPO has outperformed 100% of its 15 Cargo Ground Transportation peers over 5Y. Cargo Ground Transportation ranks 9th of 23 industries in Industrials by median 5Y return.
Share of Cargo Ground Transportation constituents that XPO has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
71%
of 17 industry peers · 50.2% return
3Y
100%
of 16 industry peers · 185.7% return
5Y
100%
of 15 industry peers · 282.6% return
No Cargo Ground Transportation peer with a comparable growth profile has beaten XPO by more than 20pp over 5Y.
Median price return by industry across the Industrials sector, ranked by 5Y. Cargo Ground Transportation is XPO's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
Industry Names 1Y med3Y med5Y med Top 3 by 5Y
Construction & Engineering 31 31.4%131.6%210.1% CDNL 3233% · STRL 2335% · FIX 2227%
Marine Transportation 4 71.1%64.1%165.0% MATX 218% · SFL 167% · KEX 163%
Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment 13 11.6%58.6%122.8% CAT 334% · ALSN 260% · WAB 251%
Aerospace & Defense 55 17.3%84.8%88.8% DFNS 2609% · ATI 1117% · FTAI 999%
Passenger Ground Transportation 3 -9.7%56.6%65.8% UBER 95% · CAR 66% · LYFT -62%
Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components 71 11.2%56.3%50.3% CRS 1580% · PSIX 869% · GHM 780%
Trading Companies & Distributors 18 5.9%36.1%47.9% DXPE 545% · AIT 314% · URI 251%
Rail Transportation 7 37.9%71.4%46.4% FSTR 114% · CSX 61% · UNP 51%
Cargo Ground Transportation ← 16 42.5%11.5%45.9% XPO 283% · R 278% · CVLG 218%
Diversified Support Services 34 12.0%37.8%40.3% LIME 4287% · TH 391% · WLFC 363%
Electrical Components & Equipment 40 27.8%40.6%35.9% POWL 2456% · BE 933% · ELVA 917%
Building Products 33 -4.5%21.5%33.4% GFF 438% · LMB 435% · PPIH 281%
Industrial Conglomerates 17 24.1%24.2%11.1% RCMT 788% · TTI 192% · CSW 155%
Office Services & Supplies 10 17.0%28.8%5.6% TILE 200% · PBI 166% · EBF 59%
Environmental & Facilities Services 28 -6.7%15.9%3.2% CECO 935% · ADUR 630% · NVRI 306%
Research & Consulting Services 13 -5.4%-17.8%-2.8% HURN 219% · CRAI 96% · GRNQ 71%
Agricultural & Farm Machinery 17 -6.9%-15.5%-18.0% BLBD 202% · DE 76% · GENC 67%
Passenger Airlines 11 9.1%-5.7%-24.1% LTM 2416% · UAL 163% · SKYW 155%
Data Processing & Outsourced Services 6 -30.8%-9.6%-25.2% EXLS 54% · BR 10% · G -25%
Human Resource & Employment Services 21 12.3%-20.6%-34.5% BBSI 87% · ADP 46% · KFY 38%
Air Freight & Logistics 12 -13.1%-24.2%-35.9% CHRW 84% · FDX 70% · EXPD 61%
Security & Alarm Services 10 -28.4%-16.1%-44.8% CIX 118% · MG 101% · BCO 50%
Airport Services 3 -67.1%-67.5%-57.1% JOBY -22% · ASLE -57% · UP -100%
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.

Latest Trefis Analyses

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

XPOODFLFDXSAIAARCBTFIIMedian
NameXPO Old Domi.FedEx Saia ArcBest TFI Inte. 
Mkt Price197.43205.08328.38359.19137.74138.51201.25
Mkt Cap23.142.678.89.63.111.417.2
Rev LTM8,5735,60394,7203,3924,2048,1226,862
Op Inc LTM8431,4486,623375129584713
FCF LTM5881,1155,116255173655621
FCF 3Y Avg-319793,744-76111671391
CFO LTM1,0881,3948,9256062829151,001
CFO 3Y Avg9231,5148,0915852901,000961

Growth & Margins

XPOODFLFDXSAIAARCBTFIIMedian
NameXPO Old Domi.FedEx Saia ArcBest TFI Inte. 
Rev Chg LTM7.0%-0.6%7.7%4.8%3.7%-1.7%4.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.1%-2.0%1.8%7.5%-3.2%1.2%1.5%
Rev Chg Q13.2%10.4%12.5%17.1%15.9%12.4%12.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.3%2.7%3.0%4.3%4.0%3.2%3.3%
Op Inc Chg LTM22.0%1.1%9.8%-5.4%12.1%-11.3%5.5%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg23.0%-5.0%7.9%-4.3%-17.1%-8.9%-4.6%
Op Mgn LTM9.8%25.8%7.0%11.0%3.1%7.2%8.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.0%26.4%7.0%13.1%3.5%8.2%8.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.7%1.3%-0.1%0.3%0.7%0.4%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM12.7%24.9%9.4%17.9%6.7%11.3%12.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg11.2%26.4%9.0%18.0%6.9%12.3%11.8%
FCF/Rev LTM6.9%19.9%5.4%7.5%4.1%8.1%7.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.5%17.1%4.1%-2.6%2.6%8.2%3.4%

Valuation

XPOODFLFDXSAIAARCBTFIIMedian
NameXPO Old Domi.FedEx Saia ArcBest TFI Inte. 
Mkt Cap23.142.678.89.63.111.417.2
P/S2.77.60.82.80.71.42.0
P/Op Inc27.429.411.925.723.919.524.8
P/EBIT30.629.311.725.488.019.727.4
P/E57.239.117.834.6188.933.936.9
P/CFO21.230.58.815.910.912.414.2
Total Yield1.7%3.1%7.4%2.9%0.9%4.3%3.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.6%1.7%0.0%0.4%1.3%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.1%2.5%5.5%-0.7%4.2%6.8%3.4%
D/E0.20.00.50.00.10.30.2
Net D/E0.2-0.00.40.00.10.20.1

Returns

XPOODFLFDXSAIAARCBTFIIMedian
NameXPO Old Domi.FedEx Saia ArcBest TFI Inte. 
1M Rtn-6.3%-11.5%7.2%-16.1%-12.9%-8.5%-10.0%
3M Rtn-6.3%-2.1%6.4%-23.0%10.3%-5.4%-3.7%
6M Rtn-2.7%6.1%7.9%-8.0%34.0%20.1%7.0%
12M Rtn50.2%33.3%79.3%16.7%89.1%50.4%50.3%
3Y Rtn185.7%6.0%66.0%-11.4%33.6%11.5%22.6%
1M Excs Rtn-10.7%-15.3%1.5%-19.7%-17.0%-12.2%-13.8%
3M Excs Rtn-7.2%-4.4%4.9%-24.8%11.3%-6.0%-5.2%
6M Excs Rtn-14.7%-5.9%-4.1%-20.0%22.0%8.0%-5.0%
12M Excs Rtn34.9%17.7%64.1%1.9%73.2%35.3%35.1%
3Y Excs Rtn97.0%-71.4%-8.4%-87.4%-38.9%-62.6%-50.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL)4,8324,8994,6714,6454,125
European Transportation3,3243,1733,0733,0733,077
Corporate000  
Total8,1568,0727,7447,7187,202


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20202019201820172016
Transportation507752646539438
Logistics140241216249210
Corporate-256-172-158-165-159
Total391821704623488


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20132012201120102009
Corporate1,009372982617
Freight Brokerage8711105  
Expedited Transportation1933522  
Freight Forwarding602323  
Eliminations-1,353-127-21-24-17
Bounce   52
Concert Group Logistics   2524
Express-1   2523
Total7804131285749


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$197.43 
Market Cap ($ Bil)23.1 
First Trading Date10/07/2003 
Distance from 52W High-13.5% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$206.09$185.33
DMA Trendupdown
Distance from DMA-4.2%6.5%
 3M1YR
Volatility37.2%43.7%
Downside Capture111.74129.42
Upside Capture62.91147.87
Correlation (SPY)36.2%39.7%
XPO Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.370.811.071.381.381.51
Up Beta1.620.671.411.501.621.66
Down Beta1.011.190.671.241.031.30
Up Capture-33%51%78%185%204%504%
Bmk +ve Days11223567138427
Stock +ve Days10203069131382
Down Capture-1%89%139%114%120%108%
Bmk -ve Days11212859114326
Stock -ve Days12233357121369

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with XPO
XPO54.7%43.7%1.11-
Sector ETF (XLI)21.8%17.1%0.9954.1%
Equity (SPY)20.7%12.8%1.1939.4%
Gold (GLD)35.0%28.8%1.0416.3%
Commodities (DBC)41.4%20.2%1.60-14.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)15.3%13.9%0.7836.3%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-44.7%42.7%-1.2711.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with XPO
XPO30.3%46.9%0.72-
Sector ETF (XLI)13.2%17.6%0.5860.6%
Equity (SPY)13.1%17.2%0.5957.3%
Gold (GLD)20.4%18.6%0.895.2%
Commodities (DBC)9.8%19.6%0.395.7%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.4%18.9%0.0343.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)7.2%52.6%0.3223.6%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with XPO
XPO31.4%47.1%0.76-
Sector ETF (XLI)14.0%20.0%0.6160.8%
Equity (SPY)15.2%17.9%0.7257.6%
Gold (GLD)12.5%16.2%0.631.7%
Commodities (DBC)7.9%18.1%0.3515.9%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.9%20.7%0.2043.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)60.0%66.0%1.0012.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date7312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6.3 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 71520269.8%
Average Daily Volume1.2 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.4 days
Basic Shares Quantity117.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares5.4%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 8/10/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/30/2026-0.1%0.4% 
4/30/20261.6%-2.4%-1.1%
2/5/20263.4%12.4%5.1%
10/30/20259.0%10.9%15.0%
7/31/2025-9.1%-7.0%-1.6%
4/30/20258.9%10.6%20.6%
2/6/20257.8%6.2%-20.5%
10/30/202411.4%14.9%24.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive171716
# Negative777
Median Positive4.1%7.0%12.1%
Median Negative-4.0%-5.9%-14.0%
Max Positive18.9%18.5%30.5%
Max Negative-14.0%-14.1%-21.2%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/30/2026-0.1%0.4% 
4/30/20261.6%-2.4%-1.1%
2/5/20263.4%12.4%5.1%
10/30/20259.0%10.9%15.0%
7/31/2025-9.1%-7.0%-1.6%
4/30/20258.9%10.6%20.6%
2/6/20257.8%6.2%-20.5%
10/30/202411.4%14.9%24.9%
8/1/20240.8%-4.6%0.2%
5/3/20243.3%3.7%-6.0%
2/7/202418.9%18.5%30.5%
10/30/202315.1%18.1%28.3%
8/4/20234.2%7.0%11.2%
5/4/20233.4%6.6%11.6%
2/8/2023-14.0%-14.1%-21.2%
10/31/20222.1%9.0%22.2%
8/4/2022-2.3%-5.9%-14.3%
5/9/20224.1%0.1%4.8%
2/8/20228.3%8.2%12.5%
11/2/2021-7.6%-10.7%-14.0%
7/28/20212.4%3.7%6.7%
5/3/20210.4%5.1%3.9%
2/10/2021-4.0%-3.5%2.0%
11/5/2020-2.2%3.2%21.6%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive171716
# Negative777
Median Positive4.1%7.0%12.1%
Median Negative-4.0%-5.9%-14.0%
Max Positive18.9%18.5%30.5%
Max Negative-14.0%-14.1%-21.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/30/202610-Q
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202502/05/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202504/30/202510-Q
12/31/202402/07/202510-K
09/30/202410/30/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202405/03/202410-Q
12/31/202302/08/202410-K
09/30/202310/30/202310-Q
06/30/202308/04/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/13/202310-K
09/30/202211/02/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
06/30/202607/30/202610-Q
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202502/05/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202504/30/202510-Q
12/31/202402/07/202510-K
09/30/202410/30/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202405/03/202410-Q
12/31/202302/08/202410-K
09/30/202310/30/202310-Q
06/30/202308/04/202310-Q
03/31/202305/04/202310-Q
12/31/202202/13/202310-K
09/30/202211/02/202210-Q
06/30/202208/08/202210-Q
03/31/202205/10/202210-Q
12/31/202102/16/202210-K
09/30/202111/03/202110-Q
06/30/202108/04/202110-Q
03/31/202105/04/202110-Q
12/31/202002/12/202110-K
09/30/202011/06/202010-Q
06/30/202008/03/202010-Q
03/31/202005/05/202010-Q
12/31/201902/10/202010-K
09/30/201910/28/201910-Q

Insider Activity

Updated 8/12/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Brown, Christopher MichaelChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell8122026201.943,750757,2626,261,046Form
2Brown, Christopher MichaelChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell8122026201.411,250251,7627,000,005Form
3Landry, Allison DirectSell5292026215.612,400517,4721,045,509Form
4Landry, Allison DirectSell9122025135.043,250438,870793,342Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Brown, Christopher MichaelChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell8122026201.943,750757,2626,261,046Form
2Brown, Christopher MichaelChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell8122026201.411,250251,7627,000,005Form
3Landry, Allison DirectSell5292026215.612,400517,4721,045,509Form
4Landry, Allison DirectSell9122025135.043,250438,870793,342Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Aug 20, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
MFN Partners Management, LP$2.2 Bil46.6%10Hold13F
One Madison Group LLC$65.5 Mil7.6%28TRIM -7.5%13F
Durable Capital Partners LP$571.2 Mil5.9%37TRIM -25.7%13F
D1 Capital Partners L.P.$250.5 Mil2.2%44TRIM -36.7%13F
Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc.$62.3 Mil2.0%44New13F
Greenstone Partners & Co., LLC$5.4 Mil1.4%9TRIM -85.7%13F
Hawk Ridge Capital Management LP$17.6 Mil0.6%48TRIM -53.4%13F
Partners Group Holding AG$6.0 Mil0.4%50TRIM -26.1%13F
Slate Path Capital LP$19.6 Mil0.3%44New13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc.$62.3 Mil2.0%44New13F
Slate Path Capital LP$19.6 Mil0.3%44New13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Forest Avenue Capital Management LP$63.5 Mil4.2%22ExitedDec 31, 202513F
GCM Grosvenor Holdings, LLC$7.4 Mil1.0%22ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Greenstone Partners & Co., LLC$5.4 Mil1.4%9TRIM -85.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Hawk Ridge Capital Management LP$17.6 Mil0.6%48TRIM -53.4%Mar 31, 202613F
D1 Capital Partners L.P.$250.5 Mil2.2%44TRIM -36.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Partners Group Holding AG$6.0 Mil0.4%50TRIM -26.1%Mar 31, 202613F
Durable Capital Partners LP$571.2 Mil5.9%37TRIM -25.7%Mar 31, 202613F
One Madison Group LLC$65.5 Mil7.6%28TRIM -7.5%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
MFN Partners Management, LP$2.2 Bil46.6%10Hold13F
Durable Capital Partners LP$571.2 Mil5.9%37TRIM -25.7%13F
D1 Capital Partners L.P.$250.5 Mil2.2%44TRIM -36.7%13F
One Madison Group LLC$65.5 Mil7.6%28TRIM -7.5%13F
Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc.$62.3 Mil2.0%44New13F
Slate Path Capital LP$19.6 Mil0.3%44New13F
Hawk Ridge Capital Management LP$17.6 Mil0.6%48TRIM -53.4%13F
Partners Group Holding AG$6.0 Mil0.4%50TRIM -26.1%13F
Greenstone Partners & Co., LLC$5.4 Mil1.4%9TRIM -85.7%13F
Core Cache Last Updated: 8/19/2026