XPO (XPO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $140.73 | Market Cap: $16.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Cargo Ground Transportation
XPO (XPO)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $140.73Market Cap: $16.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Cargo Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & Digital Retail, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
XPO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The analysis of XPO's stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, reveals several key factors that likely influenced its performance.
1. Mixed LTL Operating Metrics. XPO reported a 4.7% decrease in less-than-truckload (LTL) tonnage per day in August 2025 compared to the previous year, with shipments down 3.4% and weight per shipment down 1.3%. This indicated softening volumes. However, the company reaffirmed its third-quarter margin guidance, suggesting effective management in a subdued demand environment. Subsequently, in October 2025, XPO's North American LTL segment experienced a 3.8% year-over-year decline in weight per day. This trend continued into November 2025, with a 5.4% drop in LTL tonnage per day, driven by a 2.2% reduction in shipments per day and a 3.2% decrease in weight per shipment compared to November 2024. Despite these volume declines, XPO maintained a positive outlook on its ability to improve operating ratio.
2. Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. On October 30, 2025, XPO announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results. The company reported revenue of $2.11 billion, an increase from $2.05 billion in the same period of 2024. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.07, up from $1.02 in the third quarter of 2024, exceeding analysts' expectations. However, diluted earnings per share decreased to $0.68 from $0.79 in the prior year, and net income was $82 million compared to $95 million in 2024, primarily due to a $35 million charge for a legal matter. Despite this, the North American LTL segment showed strong performance with a 10% increase in adjusted operating income and a 5.9% rise in yield (excluding fuel).
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| XPO Return | 50% | 10% | -29% | 163% | 50% | 3% | 374% |
| Peers Return | 25% | 50% | -15% | 8% | -10% | 8% | 67% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| XPO Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 42% | 83% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 58% | 38% | 55% | 50% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| XPO Max Drawdown | -49% | -7% | -45% | -10% | -7% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -6% | -29% | -13% | -29% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EXPD, CHRW, HUBG, FWRD, ODFL. See XPO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | XPO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -53.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 113.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 274 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 143.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 234 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -61.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 157.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 721 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -57.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 135.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 384 days | 1480 days |
Compare to EXPD, CHRW, HUBG, FWRD, ODFL
In The Past
XPO's stock fell -53.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/16/2021. A -53.2% loss requires a 113.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| How Low Can XPO Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
| XPO vs Alphabet: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| XPO vs Honeywell International: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| XPO vs Saia: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
| XPO Stock vs Competition: Who Wins? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Better Bet Than XPO Stock: Pay Less Than XPO To Get More From MU, RCL | |||
| Better Bet Than XPO Stock: Pay Less Than XPO To Get More From ATI, GTLS | |||
| XPO Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Why You Shouldn Not Be Buying XPO Stock | Buy or Fear | ||
| XPO Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 49.7% in 2024 and 40.7% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Should You Buy FedEx Stock Over Its Industry Peer? | February 15th, 2022 | ||
| Despite A Solid Q4 XPO Logistics Stock Appears Vulnerable | February 11th, 2021 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to XPO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12312018 | XPO | XPO | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.1% | 39.7% | -19.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12312018 | XPO | XPO | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.1% | 39.7% | -19.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for XPO
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 143.93 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.8 |
| Rev LTM | 6,821 |
| Op Inc LTM | 752 |
| FCF LTM | 519 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 496 |
| CFO LTM | 869 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 841 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -7.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | -4.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 17.8 |
| P/S | 1.2 |
| P/EBIT | 16.9 |
| P/E | 23.1 |
| P/CFO | 18.1 |
| Total Yield | 5.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 27.5% |
| 12M Rtn | -15.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 17.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 11.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 12.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -28.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -50.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2072025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10302023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2132023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2162022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |