Lyft (LYFT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $19.33 | Market Cap: $7.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Lyft (LYFT)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $19.33Market Cap: $7.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -1.8% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 71% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 12% | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Urban Mobility. Themes include On-Demand Ride-Sharing Platforms, Electrification of Urban Fleets, and Autonomous Vehicle Deployment. | Key risksLYFT key risks include [1] a high-attrition driver base facing the significant legal threat of reclassification as employees and [2] a sustained competitive disadvantage against a dominant, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 12% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Urban Mobility. Themes include On-Demand Ride-Sharing Platforms, Electrification of Urban Fleets, and Autonomous Vehicle Deployment. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -12%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -1.8% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 71% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% |
| Key risksLYFT key risks include [1] a high-attrition driver base facing the significant legal threat of reclassification as employees and [2] a sustained competitive disadvantage against a dominant, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
LYFT Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Lyft's stock moved by 18.2% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Record-Breaking Q3 2025 Financial Results.
Lyft announced record financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. The company achieved all-time highs in Gross Bookings of $4.8 billion (up 16% year-over-year) and revenue of $1.7 billion (up 11% year-over-year). Notably, Lyft reported a Q3 record net income of $46.1 million and its Adjusted EBITDA increased by 29% year-over-year to $138.9 million. The company also generated over $1 billion in free cash flow for the trailing twelve months for the first time in its history. Operationally, rides growth accelerated to 15% year-over-year, and active riders grew by 18% to 28.7 million, both reaching all-time highs.
2. Positive Outlook and Accelerated Growth Projections.
Despite missing analyst expectations on earnings per share for Q3 2025, Lyft's stock rose, reflecting investor confidence in the company's growth trajectory and improving financial health. Lyft provided a strong outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025, forecasting rides growth in the mid- to high-teens year-over-year and Gross Bookings of approximately $5.01 billion to $5.13 billion, indicating continued acceleration of growth through the end of 2025 and into 2026.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LYFT Return | 14% | -13% | -74% | 36% | -14% | 49% | -55% |
| Peers Return | � | � | -42% | 58% | -13% | 43% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LYFT Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 33% | 50% | 42% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 67% | 35% | 52% | 42% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LYFT Max Drawdown | -63% | -24% | -77% | -27% | -39% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -49% | -14% | -37% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UBER, DASH, CAR, HTZ. See LYFT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LYFT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -88.1% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 743.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -70.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 236.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 329 days | 148 days |
Compare to LRN, INSP, YELP, BMR, BTTC
In The Past
Lyft's stock fell -88.1% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -88.1% loss requires a 743.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Lyft Earnings Notes | |||
| Lyft Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go? | Return | ||
| Does Lyft Stock Lead the Pack? | Peer Comparison | ||
| Lyft (LYFT) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Lyft (LYFT) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
| Lyft (LYFT) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
| Lyft (LYFT) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Lyft (LYFT) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Lyft (LYFT) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Lyft (LYFT) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Why Is Lyft Stock Down 16%? | December 12th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to LYFT. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.4% | 10.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 10.7% | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.2% | 12.2% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Lyft
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 79.14 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| Rev LTM | 11,402 |
| Op Inc LTM | 25 |
| FCF LTM | 1,028 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 447 |
| CFO LTM | 2,528 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,136 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 17.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 20.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.8 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 29.8 |
| P/E | 12.3 |
| P/CFO | 8.3 |
| Total Yield | 0.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -14.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 36.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 72.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -12.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 21.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 5.8% | 22.4% | 12.0% |
| 8/6/2025 | 1.6% | 4.2% | 19.1% |
| 5/8/2025 | 28.1% | 24.8% | 20.2% |
| 2/11/2025 | -7.9% | -6.9% | -21.7% |
| 11/6/2024 | 22.8% | 23.5% | 10.7% |
| 8/7/2024 | -17.2% | -8.3% | 2.6% |
| 5/7/2024 | 7.1% | 2.7% | -5.5% |
| 2/13/2024 | 35.1% | 33.0% | 46.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 7.6% | 8.6% | 18.0% |
| Median Negative | -10.4% | -10.8% | -14.4% |
| Max Positive | 35.1% | 33.0% | 47.8% |
| Max Negative | -36.4% | -38.2% | -55.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5092025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5082023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8052022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |