Allison Transmission (ALSN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $90.47 | Market Cap: $7.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Allison Transmission (ALSN)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $90.47Market Cap: $7.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Automotive Parts & Equipment
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 8.8% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -16% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 31% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Autonomous Trucks, Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.0%, FCF Yield is 8.8% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 31% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 20% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Autonomous Trucks, Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -4.2%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -16% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
ALSN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Allison Transmission (ALSN) stock movement for the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Disappointing Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Results: Allison Transmission reported third-quarter net sales of $693 million and diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.63, both of which missed analyst consensus estimates. This underperformance led to investor disappointment and a decline in the stock price.
2. Downward Revision of Full-Year 2025 Guidance: Following the weaker-than-expected third-quarter results, Allison Transmission revised its full-year 2025 guidance downwards for both net sales and net income. Notably, the midpoint of the full-year revenue guidance was cut by 4%, signaling a more challenging outlook for the company's financial performance.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| ALSN Return | -9% | -14% | 17% | 42% | 88% | -16% | 104% |
| Peers Return | 9% | 25% | -19% | 15% | -24% | 9% | 6% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| ALSN Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 50% | 67% | 83% | 20% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 57% | 35% | 47% | 40% | 46% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| ALSN Max Drawdown | -44% | -23% | -9% | -0% | -4% | -26% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -51% | -10% | -33% | -6% | -28% | -24% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BWA, LEA, GNTX, VC, GT. See ALSN Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | ALSN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 463 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 83.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1060 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1631 days | 120 days |
Compare to BWA, LEA, GNTX, VC, GT
In The Past
Allison Transmission's stock fell -28.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/14/2021. A -28.5% loss requires a 39.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to ALSN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 03312020 | ALSN | Allison Transmission | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.9% | 27.6% | -9.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| 03312020 | ALSN | Allison Transmission | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.9% | 27.6% | -9.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Allison Transmission
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 66.86 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.4 |
| Rev LTM | 8,971 |
| Op Inc LTM | 734 |
| FCF LTM | 549 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 484 |
| CFO LTM | 710 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 761 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -4.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | -1.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 9.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 12.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.4 |
| P/S | 0.8 |
| P/EBIT | 8.2 |
| P/E | 11.3 |
| P/CFO | 6.1 |
| Total Yield | 8.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 16.2% |
| 12M Rtn | -5.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -14.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -6.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 1.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -18.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -88.2% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2132025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2142024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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