Griffon (GFF)
Market Price (6/21/2026): $91.14 | Market Cap: $4.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products
Griffon (GFF)
Market Price (6/21/2026): $91.14Market Cap: $4.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Building Products
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.9% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Urbanization & Housing Trends, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Home Improvement & Renovation, Show more. | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.4%, Dist 3Y High is -4.4% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 565x Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.1% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% Key risksGFF key risks include [1] tariffs disrupting its Consumer and Professional Products segment, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 6.9% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Urbanization & Housing Trends, Smart Buildings & Proptech, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Home Improvement & Renovation, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.4%, Dist 3Y High is -4.4% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 565x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -6.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -1.1% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% |
| Key risksGFF key risks include [1] tariffs disrupting its Consumer and Professional Products segment, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Griffon (GFF) stock has gained about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Positive Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat and Reaffirmed Full-Year Outlook. Griffon reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results (for the quarter ended March 31, 2026) on May 7, 2026, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.05, surpassing analyst estimates by $0.05 to $0.06. Despite a 1% year-over-year decrease in revenue to $421.9 million, which still beat estimates, and a 4% decrease in adjusted EBITDA, management reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $1.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $458 million from continuing operations, signaling confidence in the company's core performance.
2. Strategic Portfolio Restructuring, including the AMES Joint Venture. The market reacted positively to Griffon's strategic actions to transform into a "pure-play North American building products company." This includes the definitive agreement announced on February 5, 2026, to form a joint venture with ONCAP for its AMES U.S. and Canada businesses. This joint venture, expected to close by the end of fiscal Q3 2026 (June 2026), will provide Griffon with $100 million in cash proceeds and $161 million in 10% PIK notes, while the company retains a 43% ownership. The AMES businesses are now reported as discontinued operations, and these strategic moves are viewed as value-unlocking.
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Griffon (GFF) stock has gained about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Positive Fiscal Q2 2026 Earnings Beat and Reaffirmed Full-Year Outlook. Griffon reported its fiscal Q2 2026 results (for the quarter ended March 31, 2026) on May 7, 2026, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.05, surpassing analyst estimates by $0.05 to $0.06. Despite a 1% year-over-year decrease in revenue to $421.9 million, which still beat estimates, and a 4% decrease in adjusted EBITDA, management reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $1.8 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $458 million from continuing operations, signaling confidence in the company's core performance.
2. Strategic Portfolio Restructuring, including the AMES Joint Venture. The market reacted positively to Griffon's strategic actions to transform into a "pure-play North American building products company." This includes the definitive agreement announced on February 5, 2026, to form a joint venture with ONCAP for its AMES U.S. and Canada businesses. This joint venture, expected to close by the end of fiscal Q3 2026 (June 2026), will provide Griffon with $100 million in cash proceeds and $161 million in 10% PIK notes, while the company retains a 43% ownership. The AMES businesses are now reported as discontinued operations, and these strategic moves are viewed as value-unlocking.
3. Active Capital Allocation through Share Repurchases and Consistent Dividends. Griffon continued to return capital to shareholders through its share repurchase program and regular dividends. During fiscal Q2 2026, the company repurchased 0.4 million shares for $32.9 million at an average price of $78.03 per share. Since April 2023 and through March 31, 2026, Griffon has repurchased a total of 11.5 million shares, representing 20.1% of its outstanding shares, for $610.9 million. Furthermore, the Board declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.22 per share on May 7, 2026, marking its 59th consecutive quarter of dividend payments.
4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Revisions. Wall Street analysts maintained a generally optimistic outlook on Griffon, contributing to positive investor sentiment. The company holds a consensus rating ranging from "Moderate Buy" to "Strong Buy." Notably, Stephens & Co. raised its price target for GFF to $115.00 from $92.00 on February 9, 2026. The average analyst price target for Griffon is $115.00, implying a potential upside of 24.78% from its price of $92.17 as of June 9, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 7.2% change in GFF stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 563.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 85.03 | 91.13 | 7.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,352 | 2,347 | -0.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.9% | 0.3% | -83.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 85.0 | 564.5 | 563.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 45 | 45 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 7.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GFF | 7.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.2% | 60.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 2.4% | 67.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 22.1% change in GFF stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 761.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 74.62 | 91.13 | 22.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,335 | 2,347 | 0.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.2% | 0.3% | -86.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 65.6 | 564.5 | 761.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 45 | 45 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 22.1% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GFF | 22.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 51.2% |
| Sector (XLI) | 18.4% | 64.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 33.9% change in GFF stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 4101.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 68.04 | 91.13 | 33.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,367 | 2,347 | -0.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.8% | 0.3% | -96.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.4 | 564.5 | 4101.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 46 | 45 | 2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 33.9% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GFF | 33.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 44.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 28.4% | 57.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 198.1% change in GFF stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/20/2026 was primarily driven by a 203.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 30.57 | 91.13 | 198.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,837 | 2,347 | -17.3% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.6 | 1.7 | 203.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 53 | 45 | 18.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 198.1% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GFF | 198.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 85.7% | 49.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 95.3% | 59.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GFF Return | 42% | 37% | 84% | 18% | 4% | 21% | 433% |
| Peers Return | 50% | -21% | 64% | -14% | 19% | 9% | 115% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GFF Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 67% | 50% | 42% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 40% | 62% | 44% | 60% | 67% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GFF Max Drawdown | -22% | -38% | -35% | -26% | -20% | -28% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -39% | -21% | -29% | -23% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: WTS, WMS, UFPI, WOR, MAIR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/18/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GFF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -15.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 72 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -12.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.9% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 8 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -30.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -36.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 19 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -53.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -39.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Griffon's stock fell -15.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.5% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | GFF | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -30.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.3% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 48 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -36.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 57.7% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 19 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -53.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 114.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 128 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -39.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 64.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -29.0% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 40.9% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 70 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -24.0% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.5% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 21 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -48.1% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 92.7% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 191 days | 1085 days |
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | ||
| % Loss | -41.2% | -8.6% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.1% | 9.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3041 days | 47 days |
In The Past
Griffon's stock fell -15.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 18.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Griffon (GFF)
Griffon Corporation (GFF) is a diversified manufacturing company that provides a wide range of consumer, professional, home, and building products across the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, and other international markets. The company operates through two primary segments: Consumer and Professional Products, and Home & Building Products.
Its Consumer and Professional Products segment focuses on manufacturing and marketing a comprehensive array of tools and home organization solutions. This includes long-handled landscaping tools, wheelbarrows, garden hoses, snow tools, and various hand tools for gardening and DIY. Additionally, this segment offers wood and wire closet organization systems, general living storage, and wire garage storage products. Customers for these products range from individual homeowners and professionals to large home center retail chains and mass merchandisers.
The Home & Building Products segment specializes in manufacturing and marketing doors for both residential and commercial applications. This includes a variety of residential and commercial garage doors, sold through professional dealers and home center retail chains. Furthermore, the segment produces rolling steel doors and grille products, catering to commercial, industrial, institutional, and retail uses, underscoring Griffon's significant presence in the construction and renovation sectors.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Griffon (GFF):
- Like Stanley Black & Decker, but they also make all sorts of garden tools, closet organizers, and residential garage doors.
- Similar to Masco Corporation, but specializing in hand tools, garden products, and garage doors.
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- Long-handled and Hand Tools: Griffon manufactures and markets a variety of tools for landscaping, snow, striking, and general hand use for homeowners and professionals.
- Storage and Organization Products: The company offers wood and wire systems for closet organization, general living storage, and wire garage storage.
- Lawn and Garden Accessories: This category includes wheelbarrows, lawn carts, planters, garden hoses, and various pruning and cutting tools for gardening.
- Cleaning Products: Griffon provides cleaning products designed for professional, home, and industrial applications.
- Residential and Commercial Garage Doors: The company manufactures and markets overhead garage doors for both residential and commercial applications.
- Rolling Steel Doors and Grilles: Griffon produces rolling steel doors and grille products for commercial, industrial, institutional, and retail uses.
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Griffon Corporation (GFF) primarily sells its products to other companies. Its major customers include:
These companies represent the "home center retail chains" and "mass merchandisers" to which Griffon sells its consumer and professional products, as well as its home and building products. Griffon also sells to "professional dealers and direct-to builder professional installers," which are other businesses, but the specific names of large public companies in those categories are not explicitly detailed in the provided description.
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Ronald J. Kramer Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Kramer has served as Chief Executive Officer of Griffon Corporation since April 2008, a director since 1993, and Chairman of the Board since January 2018. Prior to his current role, he was President and a director of Wynn Resorts, Ltd. from 2002 through March 2008. From 1999 to 2001, Mr. Kramer was a Managing Director at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, an investment banking firm, and its predecessor, Wasserstein Perella & Co. He also served as Chairman and CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann in 1995.
Brian G. Harris Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Harris has been Griffon's Chief Financial Officer since August 2015. He was promoted to Executive Vice President in November 2024, having served as Senior Vice President since August 2015. From November 2012 to July 2015, he was Vice President and Controller, and from July 2009 to July 2015, he was Griffon's Chief Accounting Officer. Before joining Griffon, Mr. Harris was Assistant Controller of Dover Corporation from May 2005 to June 2009. He also held various accounting and auditing roles with Hearst Argyle Television, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., and Arthur Andersen, LLP.
Robert F. Mehmel President and Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Mehmel has served as President and Chief Operating Officer of Griffon Corporation since December 2012. He was also a Director from May 2018 to February 2022. From August 2008 to October 2012, he was President and Chief Operating Officer of DRS Technologies, a leading supplier of defense electronic products, systems, and military support services.
Seth L. Kaplan Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary
Mr. Kaplan has been Griffon's General Counsel and Secretary since May 2010. He was promoted to Executive Vice President in February 2026, after serving as Senior Vice President since May 2010. From July 2008 to May 2010, Mr. Kaplan was Assistant General Counsel and Assistant Secretary at Hexcel Corporation.
Michael A. Sarrica President, Consumer and Professional Products Segment and Senior Vice President, Griffon
Mr. Sarrica became President of the Consumer and Professional Products segment in November 2019. Since joining Griffon in January 2014, he has held various leadership roles within the company, including President of The AMES Companies and, since January 2017, Senior Vice President of Griffon.
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The key risks to Griffon Corporation's (GFF) business are:
- Market Dependence and Cyclicality: Griffon's operations, particularly its Home & Building Products and Consumer & Professional Products segments, are heavily influenced by the cyclical nature of the residential construction and housing markets, as well as broader economic conditions and interest rates. This dependence makes the company vulnerable to economic downturns, fluctuations in housing starts, and changes in consumer spending on home improvement.
- Supply Chain Disruptions and Commodity Price Volatility: The company faces significant risks from global supply chain challenges, including raw material shortages, transportation delays, and the volatility of commodity prices such as steel, aluminum, polymer resins, and wood. Unpredictable spikes in input costs can pressure margins. Additionally, tariffs and trade disputes have specifically impacted the performance of its Consumer and Professional Products segment.
- High Debt Level: Griffon Corporation carries a substantial debt load, which raises its financial obligations and has the potential to constrain profitability. The company's long-term debt has increased, and its current liabilities have been noted to be higher than its cash equivalents, indicating potential challenges in meeting short-term obligations. A high debt level, especially in a rising interest rate environment, could further pressure the company's profitability and cash flow.
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Griffon Corporation (GFF) operates in several addressable markets through its diverse product offerings. Here are the estimated market sizes for its main products and services:
Lawn and Garden Products and Equipment
- The global lawn and garden equipment market was valued at approximately USD 48.1 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 88.6 billion by 2035.
- Another estimate places the global garden equipment market size at USD 19.27 billion in 2024, expected to reach USD 23.46 billion by 2032. North America holds over 50% of this global share.
- The global power lawn and garden equipment market size was USD 89.85 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 116.93 billion by 2030.
- In the U.S., the lawn and garden products market is expected to reach USD 83 billion in 2025 and rise to USD 102 billion by 2028.
- The U.S. lawn and garden consumables market size was estimated at USD 6.97 billion in 2024 and is projected to be worth around USD 12.75 billion by 2034. North America dominated the lawn and garden consumables market with a 38% market share in 2024.
Home Organization and Storage Products
- The global home organization products market is expected to reach USD 13.27 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 20.21 billion by 2033. Another report states the global market size at approximately USD 15.4 billion in 2025, expanding to over USD 20.9 billion by 2032.
- North America is the largest market for home organization products, holding approximately 45% of the global market share.
- The U.S. home organizers and storage market size is valued at USD 12.05 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach USD 15.21 billion by 2030.
- The U.S. home organization product industry was valued at USD 14.2 billion in 2023.
Garage Doors and Overhead Doors
- The global garage and overhead doors market was valued at USD 6.82 billion in 2025 and is estimated to grow to USD 9.19 billion by 2031. Another estimate for the global garage and overhead door market size is USD 8.14 billion in 2025, projected to expand to USD 12.84 billion by 2034.
- North America led the global market in 2025 with a 35.45% share for garage and overhead doors, and another source indicates North America dominated with a 59.30% market share in 2025.
- The Garage Door Manufacturing market size in the U.S. was USD 7.2 billion in 2024 and USD 7.3 billion in 2025.
- U.S. demand for residential garage and commercial overhead doors is forecast to increase to USD 4.6 billion in 2026.
- The North America garage overhead doors market was valued at USD 3.93 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 5.52 billion by 2033 from USD 4.08 billion in 2025.
Professional and Industrial Cleaning Products
- The global professional cleaning products market is estimated to be valued at USD 58.7 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 97.5 billion by 2035. Another report estimates the global market at USD 46.7 billion in 2025, growing to USD 87.3 billion in 2035.
- The global industrial cleaning products market was valued at USD 49.1569 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 75.1841 billion by 2032.
- The Industrial and Institutional Cleaners Market was estimated at USD 57.44 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 78.35 billion by 2035.
- North America holds a significant market share (approximately 24%) of the global industrial cleaning products market.
- The U.S. commercial cleaning products market size was estimated at USD 33.23 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to USD 51.34 billion by 2030.
- The U.S. industrial cleaning chemicals market size was valued at USD 17.21 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow from 2025 to 2034.
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Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Griffon Corporation (GFF) over the next 2-3 years:
- Home & Building Products (HBP) Market Recovery and Share Gains: Griffon anticipates revenue growth from its Home & Building Products segment, driven by an expected recovery in the housing market which should lead to improved residential and commercial volumes. The company is also focused on gaining market share in this segment, leveraging its leadership position in both residential and commercial garage doors.
- Strategic Pricing and Favorable Product Mix in HBP: The Home & Building Products segment has consistently benefited from favorable pricing strategies and an optimized product mix. This ability to maintain strong pricing and shift towards premium offerings is expected to continue contributing positively to revenue.
- Investments in HBP Capacity and Innovation: Griffon is making strategic investments to drive growth within its HBP segment. This includes expanding the manufacturing capacity for Clopay's sectional doors and incorporating advanced manufacturing equipment to meet increasing customer demand for premium products.
- Integration of Hunter Fan into the HBP Segment: The company's strategic decision to combine the Hunter Fan business with its Home & Building Products segment is expected to enhance the revenue base and capabilities of the HBP segment.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (2021-2026) for Griffon Corporation (GFF)
Share Repurchases
- Griffon's Board of Directors authorized an additional $400 million stock repurchase program on November 13, 2024.
- Between April 2023 and November 12, 2024, Griffon repurchased 9.4 million shares, representing 16.4% of outstanding shares, for a total of $458 million.
- In fiscal year 2025 (ended September 30, 2025), the company repurchased 1.9 million shares for $134.7 million, with $298 million remaining under the authorized program as of that date.
Share Issuance
- Griffon Corporation has not reported any significant dollar amount of new share issuances for capital over the last 3-5 years. The number of outstanding shares has generally decreased due to active share repurchase programs.
Inbound Investments
- No information is available regarding large inbound investments made in Griffon Corporation by third-parties within the last 3-5 years.
Outbound Investments
- On January 24, 2022, Griffon acquired Hunter Fan Company, a leading residential ceiling fan brand, for $845 million.
- In February 2026, Griffon announced a definitive agreement to form a joint venture with ONCAP, combining Griffon's AMES U.S. and Canada businesses with ONCAP's Venanpri Tools. As part of this transaction, Griffon will receive $100 million in cash proceeds and $161 million in second lien debt, retaining a 43% equity interest in the joint venture.
- In April 2022, Griffon agreed to sell its Telephonics business to TTM Technologies, Inc. for $330.0 million in cash.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the fiscal year ended September 30, 2025, were $34.4 million, including $18.0 million from asset sales.
- For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, capital expenditures were $7.7 million.
- Expected capital expenditures for fiscal year 2026 are projected at $50 million, focusing on capacity expansion, modernization, and technology within its businesses.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Griffon Earnings Notes | 12/29/2026 | |
| Can Griffon Stock Hold Up When Markets Turn? | 10/17/2025 | |
| Griffon vs Verizon Communications: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| Griffon vs Owens-Corning: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/18/2025 | |
| How Does Griffon Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 08/13/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than GFF Stock: Pay Less Than Griffon To Get More From PCG, UAL | 08/12/2025 | |
| Better Bet Than GFF Stock: Pay Less Than Griffon To Get More From ADT, UAL | 08/12/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 01/13/2026 |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 88.85 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.7 |
| Rev LTM | 2,558 |
| Op Inc LTM | 443 |
| FCF LTM | 301 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 314 |
| CFO LTM | 365 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 377 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -0.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 8.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 14.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.9% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.7 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 17.9 |
| P/EBIT | 19.3 |
| P/E | 26.8 |
| P/CFO | 13.7 |
| Total Yield | 4.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home and Building Products (HBP) | 1,584 | 1,589 | 1,589 | 1,507 | 1,041 |
| Consumer and Professional Products (CPP) | 936 | 1,035 | 1,097 | 1,342 | 1,230 |
| Total | 2,520 | 2,624 | 2,685 | 2,848 | 2,271 |
| $ Mil | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home and Building Products (HBP) | 130 | 89 | 80 | ||
| Defense Electronics | 25 | ||||
| Clopay Plastic Products Company, Inc. (PPC) | 25 | 20 | |||
| Less: Operating (profit) from discontinued operations | -25 | ||||
| Telephonics | 30 | 43 | 43 | 45 | |
| Assets from discontinued operations | -34 | -33 | |||
| Clopay Plastic Products | 33 | 29 | |||
| Home and Building Products | 59 | 41 | |||
| Total | 156 | 119 | 143 | 102 | 81 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer and Professional Products (CPP) | 1,165 | 1,495 | 1,580 | 1,915 | 1,378 |
| Home and Building Products (HBP) | 770 | 738 | 704 | 738 | 666 |
| Corporate | 123 | 133 | 130 | 158 | 283 |
| Other discontinued operations | 6 | 4 | 6 | 4 | |
| Discontinued operations | 5 | 273 | |||
| Total | 2,064 | 2,371 | 2,419 | 2,816 | 2,605 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $91.13 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 4.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 05/03/1973 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -4.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $87.50 | $79.62 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 4.1% | 14.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 40.4% | 36.7% |
| Downside Capture | 130.30 | 128.58 |
| Upside Capture | 166.84 | 127.60 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 56.9% | 43.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 3.11 | 2.50 | 1.89 | 1.50 | 1.34 | 1.27 |
| Up Beta | 2.20 | 2.22 | 1.77 | 2.00 | 1.61 | 1.17 |
| Down Beta | 4.45 | 3.66 | 1.47 | 1.07 | 1.05 | 0.98 |
| Up Capture | 158% | 207% | 188% | 163% | 148% | 432% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 29 | 37 | 64 | 133 | 403 |
| Down Capture | 523% | 364% | 221% | 135% | 128% | 109% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 12 | 26 | 60 | 117 | 345 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GFF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GFF | 36.8% | 36.6% | 0.92 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 28.7% | 16.2% | 1.38 | 57.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.5% | 12.4% | 1.61 | 43.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.2% | 27.5% | 0.77 | 18.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.8% | 18.8% | 0.83 | -27.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.0% | 13.7% | 0.52 | 49.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -40.0% | 42.5% | -1.08 | 15.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GFF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GFF | 34.3% | 41.3% | 0.83 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.5% | 17.5% | 0.61 | 57.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 50.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.3% | 0.76 | 7.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.5% | 19.4% | 0.29 | 7.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.9% | 18.9% | 0.00 | 44.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.0% | 54.2% | 0.40 | 19.9% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GFF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GFF | 22.0% | 45.4% | 0.60 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.2% | 20.0% | 0.62 | 57.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 18.0% | 0.73 | 52.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.1% | 0.63 | 4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.9% | 18.0% | 0.26 | 14.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 44.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.8% | 1.00 | 16.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/11/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -2.1% | -10.5% | -7.4% |
| 2/5/2026 | 5.7% | 10.9% | -8.4% |
| 11/19/2025 | 3.6% | 12.7% | 15.1% |
| 8/6/2025 | -13.7% | -11.5% | -3.0% |
| 5/8/2025 | 4.4% | 7.6% | 4.0% |
| 2/5/2025 | 8.9% | 6.6% | -6.3% |
| 11/13/2024 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 16.3% |
| 8/7/2024 | -20.1% | -11.4% | -9.5% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 7.0% | 8.3% | 15.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.1% | -10.4% | -6.9% |
| Max Positive | 18.2% | 37.5% | 76.3% |
| Max Negative | -20.1% | -14.6% | -17.7% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -2.1% | -10.5% | -7.4% |
| 2/5/2026 | 5.7% | 10.9% | -8.4% |
| 11/19/2025 | 3.6% | 12.7% | 15.1% |
| 8/6/2025 | -13.7% | -11.5% | -3.0% |
| 5/8/2025 | 4.4% | 7.6% | 4.0% |
| 2/5/2025 | 8.9% | 6.6% | -6.3% |
| 11/13/2024 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 16.3% |
| 8/7/2024 | -20.1% | -11.4% | -9.5% |
| 5/8/2024 | 7.3% | 2.4% | -0.8% |
| 2/7/2024 | 12.8% | 10.3% | 15.9% |
| 11/15/2023 | -6.1% | -2.1% | 19.1% |
| 8/2/2023 | -2.7% | -1.2% | -3.3% |
| 5/3/2023 | 2.5% | 15.1% | 22.2% |
| 1/31/2023 | 3.8% | 3.8% | -7.7% |
| 11/17/2022 | -1.1% | 7.8% | 4.3% |
| 7/28/2022 | 6.0% | 7.3% | 23.1% |
| 4/28/2022 | 7.0% | 37.5% | 76.3% |
| 2/1/2022 | -0.7% | -1.1% | 5.4% |
| 11/16/2021 | -9.7% | -9.3% | -10.0% |
| 7/29/2021 | -8.4% | -10.4% | -3.3% |
| 4/29/2021 | -1.3% | 3.3% | -4.0% |
| 1/28/2021 | 11.4% | 8.3% | 13.1% |
| 11/12/2020 | -19.7% | -14.6% | -17.7% |
| 7/30/2020 | 10.8% | 12.9% | 10.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 7.0% | 8.3% | 15.5% |
| Median Negative | -6.1% | -10.4% | -6.9% |
| Max Positive | 18.2% | 37.5% | 76.3% |
| Max Negative | -20.1% | -14.6% | -17.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/18/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/13/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/16/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/18/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/29/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/17/2021 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/30/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 01/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/13/2020 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 01/31/2020 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/22/2019 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/01/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 6/1/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.80 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.80 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 458.00 Mil | -11.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 520.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 50.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 50.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Interest Expense | 93.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 93.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 2/5/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 1.80 Bil | -28.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.50 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 520.00 Mil | -11.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 590.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Expenditures | 50.00 Mil | -16.7% | Lowered | Guidance: 60.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Interest Expense | 93.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 93.00 Mil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Tax Rate | 28.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 28.0% for 2026 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 6/18/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mehmel, Robert F | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 95.37 | 547 | 52,167 | 76,577,437 | Form |
| 2 | Mehmel, Robert F | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 95.39 | 3,018 | 287,883 | 76,644,553 | Form |
| 3 | Mehmel, Robert F | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 95.40 | 3,272 | 312,149 | 76,941,626 | Form |
| 4 | Mehmel, Robert F | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 95.18 | 5,501 | 523,585 | 77,075,622 | Form |
| 5 | Kramer, Ronald J | Chairman of the Board and CEO | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 94.92 | 100,000 | 9,492,107 | 169,367,382 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mehmel, Robert F | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 95.37 | 547 | 52,167 | 76,577,437 | Form |
| 2 | Mehmel, Robert F | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 95.39 | 3,018 | 287,883 | 76,644,553 | Form |
| 3 | Mehmel, Robert F | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 95.40 | 3,272 | 312,149 | 76,941,626 | Form |
| 4 | Mehmel, Robert F | President and COO | Direct | Sell | 6162026 | 95.18 | 5,501 | 523,585 | 77,075,622 | Form |
| 5 | Kramer, Ronald J | Chairman of the Board and CEO | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 94.92 | 100,000 | 9,492,107 | 169,367,382 | Form |
| 6 | Harris, Brian G | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 6152026 | 95.03 | 7,500 | 712,725 | 14,363,689 | Form |
| 7 | Alpert, Henry A | Direct | Buy | 3092026 | 79.99 | 1,000 | 79,990 | 5,717,605 | Form | |
| 8 | Durborow, W. Christopher | Vice President & CAO | Direct | Sell | 2182026 | 91.97 | 10,000 | 919,700 | 2,755,697 | Form |
| 9 | Grabowsky, Louis J | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 93.06 | 11,000 | 1,023,660 | 3,877,810 | Form | |
| 10 | Taylor, Michelle L | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 92.56 | 1,650 | 152,724 | 835,169 | Form | |
| 11 | Kaplan, Seth L | Sr VP, Gen. Counsel and Secy | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 95.44 | 15,000 | 1,431,664 | 11,429,161 | Form |
| 12 | Sight, James W | Direct | Sell | 2112026 | 96.15 | 3,070 | 295,180 | 1,333,793 | Form |
GFF Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew is significantly below 1.0x, indicating an unfavorable risk/reward profile. The core bull thesis relies on a successful strategic transformation, but this is undermined by weakening fundamentals in the core continuing business (declining residential volumes). The negative sector trend and contested moat assign a high probability to the downside case, making the stock unattractive at its current speculative valuation.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityGFF's primary business is tied to the residential and commercial construction markets, which are inherently cyclical. The company's revenue archetype is explicitly called 'The 'Project' Hunter (Cyclical/Capex)'. The investment thesis hinges on a strategic transformation and margin profile, which requires valuation based on normalized, mid-cycle earnings power rather than misleading trailing twelve-month metrics.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary catalyst for GFF is its strategic transformation into a pure-play, higher-margin Home and Building Products (HBP) company. The divestiture of lower-margin Consumer and Professional Products (CPP) businesses is expected to significantly expand consolidated margins, improve capital allocation, and drive a valuation re-rating by the market.
- The company is undergoing a strategic shift to become a pure-play Home and Building Products company.
- The HBP segment has a ~30% EBITDA margin, significantly higher than the ~10% EBITDA margin of the divesting CPP segment.
- Management has guided to a forward Adjusted EBITDA margin of ~28.9% for the new pure-play structure, implying a potential expansion of over 1,100 basis points from the current blended operating margin.
- The company generated $99 million in free cash flow in Q1 2026 and expects FCF to exceed net income for the full fiscal year, signaling strong cash conversion in the new model.
PRIMARY RISK
The largest friction on the thesis is the persistent decline in residential volumes within the core HBP segment, which is being masked by price increases. This indicates softening end-market demand and creates negative operating leverage, where lower factory utilization pressures segment profitability, directly offsetting the benefits of the mix shift.
- In Q1 2026, the HBP segment's 3% revenue growth was entirely due to a 7% price/mix increase, which offset a 4% decline in residential volume.
- Management directly attributed a 3% decline in HBP's Q1 adjusted EBITDA to 'the impact of reduced volume on absorption'.
- The AIA Architecture Billings Index (ABI), a key leading indicator for non-residential construction, has remained in contraction territory (<50), signaling future weakness.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| HBP Segment Residential Volume Growth | > 0% YoY | This is the primary anti-alpha. A return to positive volume growth is required to validate the core health of the continuing business and disprove the bear thesis of negative operating leverage. |
| Consolidated Gross Margin % | Sequential expansion each quarter | This KPI directly tracks the alpha driver. Successful execution of the strategic pivot to a pure-play HBP business should manifest as a steady, sequential improvement in gross margins. |
| Architecture Billings Index (ABI) | Consistently > 50 | As a key leading indicator for construction activity, a sustained move back into expansion territory would signal a cyclical tailwind that could alleviate the current volume pressures on the HBP segment. |
Transformation Story vs. Volume Reality
BULL VIEW
The divestiture of lower-margin assets will unlock a higher valuation multiple, driven by superior margins (~30% EBITDA) and strong free cash flow.
CORE TENSION
Can a strategic pivot to a pure-play building products company offset the clear deterioration in underlying residential volumes and negative operating leverage?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
Q1 2026 results showed a 4% decrease in residential volume, with management directly attributing a 3% decline in segment adjusted EBITDA to 'the impact of reduced volume on absorption'.
BEAR VIEW
Pricing power is masking a -4% decline in core residential volumes. This negative operating leverage is a leading indicator of future earnings misses.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Early May 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: HBP Segment Residential Volume Growth (must be > -4%) and Adjusted EBITDA Margin. |
By June 30, 2026 | AMES Joint Venture Closing Update Watch: Confirmation of deal closure and receipt of the expected $100M in cash proceeds. |
Monthly | Architecture Billings Index (ABI) Release Watch: ABI reading moving above 50, indicating expansion in non-residential construction. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 5, 2025 | Q3 FY25 Earnings Details: Despite beating headline estimates, the stock crashed in the following session as the report revealed underlying weakness and volume declines in consumer-facing segments. | Plummeted -12.9% $81.12 -> $70.64 |
Nov 19, 2025 | Q4 FY25 Earnings Details: Griffon reported a beat on both EPS and revenue and issued initial guidance for FY26, which was later revised due to strategic changes. | Rose significantly by 3.6% $66.66 -> $69.04 |
Jan 15, 2026 | Stock Hits New 52-Week High Details: Shares reached a new 52-week high, continuing momentum from its November earnings report and anticipation of a strategic update. | Modest 1.5% gain $83.91 -> $85.20 |
Feb 5, 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Strategic Transformation Details: Company beat EPS and revenue estimates and announced a major JV for its AMES business to become a pure-play building products company. | Stock surged +5.7% $84.73 -> $89.57 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
The combination of BEARISH sentiment, LOW forward visibility, and a CONTESTED moat require a conservative position. The risk of continued volume declines and poor execution on the strategic pivot is too high for a normal-sized allocation.
Diversification Alternatives
CSL
SECTORUnlike GFF's residential sensitivity, CSL has a more resilient focus on commercial reroofing, with stable revenue and clearer positive guidance.
FBIN
INDUSTRYPossesses a stronger portfolio of consumer brands (Moen, Therma-Tru) which may offer more durable pricing power and a stronger moat than GFF's products.
Griffon is transforming from a diversified industrial holding company into a higher-margin, pure-play building products leader, a shift recognized by its forward P/E of ~15.5x despite a high trailing P/E reflecting discontinued operations.
Filter all news through the lens of the strategic transformation into a pure-play building products company and away from consumer goods.
Successful closing of the AMES North America joint venture by June 2026; divestiture of AMES Australia/UK businesses; evidence of synergies between Hunter Fan and the legacy Home and Building Products segment; HBP segment EBITDA margins remaining above 30%. [14]
Failure to close the AMES joint venture; material revenue declines or margin compression in the core HBP segment; negative developments in the US housing repair and remodel market; loss of a key customer like Home Depot. [1]
Quarterly fluctuations in consumer demand for the CPP segment products being divested; minor price changes in raw materials like steel or aluminum unless they cause sustained margin pressure; general conglomerate performance comparisons.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the strategic portfolio realignment to become a pure-play building products company. This involves forming a joint venture for the AMES North America business (expected to close by June 2026), divesting international AMES businesses, and integrating Hunter Fan into the Home and Building Products (HBP) segment. [4] This transition is expected to unlock a higher valuation multiple more aligned with focused building product peers by exiting lower-margin, volatile consumer businesses.
Garage & Rolling Steel Doors (Clopay, CornellCookson)
$1.6B TTM (63% of Total) · 41% MarginWhat It Is
Residential and commercial sectional garage doors (Clopay, IDEAL, Holmes), and commercial rolling steel doors, fire doors, and grilles (CornellCookson). [41]
Who Pays & How
Home Depot and Menards are exclusive retail customers for residential doors, a relationship spanning over 25 years, creating significant integration and volume-based lock-in. [31] A network of over 3,000 professional dealers pays for access to market-leading brands and a broad product portfolio. [43]
Competition
Consumer & Professional Products (AMES, Hunter Fan, ClosetMaid)
$1.0B TTM (37% of Total) · 41% MarginWhat It Is
Non-powered landscaping tools (AMES, True Temper), residential and commercial fans (Hunter Fan), and home storage/organization products (ClosetMaid). [7]
Who Pays & How
Big-box retailers like Home Depot and Lowe's are major customers. Home Depot accounted for 15% of CPP's revenue in FY2024. [31] Consumers pay for strong, well-known brands in their respective categories.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Building Products Resources |
| Building Design+Construction |
| Construction Dive |
| Architectural Record |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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