C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $160.115 | Market Cap: $19.2 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Air Freight & Logistics
C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $160.115Market Cap: $19.2 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Air Freight & Logistics
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 5.1% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.1%, Dist 3Y High is -0.1% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% | Key risksCHRW key risks include [1] a heavy dependence on its proprietary Navisphere® technology platform and the associated vulnerabilities to cybersecurity events. | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.7%, FCF Yield is 5.1% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Freight Technology, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.1%, Dist 3Y High is -0.1% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.1%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -13%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11% |
| Key risksCHRW key risks include [1] a heavy dependence on its proprietary Navisphere® technology platform and the associated vulnerabilities to cybersecurity events. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CHRW Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Based on the provided information for C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, the stock experienced significant movement. Here are the key points for why the stock moved:
**1. Strong Q3 2025 Earnings Beat on Profitability:** C.H. Robinson Worldwide announced its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 29, 2025, significantly exceeding analyst expectations on profitability despite a challenging freight environment. The company reported an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.40, surpassing the analyst consensus estimate of $1.33. This performance led to a surge of over 13% in the stock price in after-hours trading following the announcement.
**2. Expanded Operating Margins through Cost Discipline:** Despite a 10.9% decrease in total revenue to $4.14 billion (missing analyst expectations), the company demonstrated a strong ability to expand its margins. The adjusted operating margin increased by 680 basis points to 31.3% in Q3 2025, driven by strategic execution and cost discipline. Operating expenses decreased by 12.6% to $485.2 million due to productivity improvements and the divestiture of its Europe Surface Transportation business.
**3. Strategic Initiatives and AI-driven Innovations:** The company highlighted its disciplined execution of strategic initiatives and innovative use of Lean AI. These efforts led to significant productivity improvements, including a 3% year-over-year growth in combined truckload and LTL volume in North American Surface Transportation (NAST), outperforming the market. Global Forwarding also expanded gross margins by 380 basis points year-over-year.
**4. Increased Shareholder Returns and Dividend:** C.H. Robinson returned $189.6 million to shareholders in Q3 2025 through dividends ($74.7 million) and stock repurchases ($114.9 million). Additionally, in November 2025, the company announced an increase in its quarterly cash dividend to $0.63 per share.
**5. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Target Revisions:** Following the strong Q3 2025 results and strategic advancements, analysts generally maintained a "Moderate Buy" consensus rating. Several firms, including Stifel and Barclays, revised their price targets upwards in December 2025, with some reaching as high as $184 or $200, indicating continued optimism for the stock.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CHRW Return | 23% | 18% | -13% | -3% | 23% | 57% | 136% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | 51% | 5% | 5% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CHRW Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 83% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | 33% | 62% | 50% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CHRW Max Drawdown | -23% | -9% | -18% | -12% | -21% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -7% | -15% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: EXPD, JBHT, XPO, RXO, HUBG. See CHRW Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CHRW | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 639 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 88 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 298 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -43.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 76.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 514 days | 1480 days |
Compare to UPS, FDX, EXPD, JBHT, XPO
In The Past
C.H. Robinson Worldwide's stock fell -33.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/25/2022. A -33.9% loss requires a 51.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CHRW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for C.H. Robinson Worldwide
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 147.43 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.9 |
| Rev LTM | 9,670 |
| Op Inc LTM | 752 |
| FCF LTM | 511 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 293 |
| CFO LTM | 869 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 841 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -8.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 1.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 17.9 |
| P/S | 1.0 |
| P/EBIT | 14.7 |
| P/E | 21.1 |
| P/CFO | 17.1 |
| Total Yield | 5.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 17.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 18.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 33.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 27.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 16.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 15.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 20.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -44.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North American Surface Transportation (NAST) | 12,471 | 15,827 | |||
| Global Forwarding | 2,998 | 6,812 | |||
| Other revenues | 2,128 | 2,057 | |||
| Sourcing | 1,056 | 1,060 | 987 | ||
| Transportation and logistics services | 22,047 | 15,148 | 14,322 | ||
| Total | 17,596 | 24,697 | 23,102 | 16,207 | 15,310 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North American Surface Transportation (NAST) | 460 | 833 | |||
| Global Forwarding | 86 | 449 | |||
| Other revenues | -31 | -16 | |||
| Total | 515 | 1,267 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North American Surface Transportation (NAST) | 3,008 | 3,304 | |||
| Other revenues | 1,122 | 1,142 | |||
| Global Forwarding | 1,095 | 1,508 | |||
| Total | 5,225 | 5,955 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/30/2025 | 18.1% | 20.6% | 32.4% |
| 4/30/2025 | 1.2% | -1.9% | 7.6% |
| 1/29/2025 | -6.9% | -9.9% | -5.8% |
| 10/30/2024 | -6.0% | -2.9% | -3.7% |
| 7/31/2024 | 14.8% | 9.8% | 15.7% |
| 5/1/2024 | 12.3% | 12.3% | 19.8% |
| 1/31/2024 | -12.6% | -12.4% | -11.4% |
| 11/1/2023 | -0.0% | -0.1% | 3.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.9% | -6.4% | -4.8% |
| Max Positive | 18.1% | 20.6% | 32.4% |
| Max Negative | -12.6% | -15.6% | -11.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5032024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8042023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2172023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |