Carpenter Technology (CRS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $310.51 | Market Cap: $15.6 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Steel
Carpenter Technology (CRS)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $310.51Market Cap: $15.6 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Steel
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Lightweight Composites, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Lightweight Composites, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CRS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Strong Quarterly Earnings and Positive Financial Outlook. Carpenter Technology reported record-breaking financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 on July 31, 2025, with Q4 operating income of $151.4 million and earnings per diluted share of $2.21. The company's adjusted operating income for FY2025 reached $525.4 million, a 48% increase from FY2024. Furthermore, Q1 FY2026 earnings (for the quarter ending September 2025) of $2.43 per share surpassed consensus estimates of $2.13, and revenue of $733.7 million also exceeded expectations. Management projects fiscal year 2026 operating income between $660 million and $700 million, a substantial increase over 2025.
2. Reclassification and Robust Demand in Aerospace & Defense. Effective September 30, 2025, Carpenter Technology reclassified into the Aerospace & Defense sector, a strategic move to better reflect its growth potential and earnings capacity. The company is experiencing strong and increasing demand from the Aerospace and Defense sectors, driven by extended lead times, urgent defense orders, and multi-year supply contracts. This favorable market environment positions Carpenter Technology for accelerated revenue growth as original equipment manufacturer (OEM) build rates rise.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CRS Return | -39% | 3% | 29% | 94% | 142% | 84% | 598% |
| Peers Return | 3% | 52% | 26% | 37% | 3% | 35% | 278% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CRS Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 58% | 58% | 52% | 60% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CRS Max Drawdown | -70% | -4% | -12% | -3% | -16% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -12% | -17% | -8% | -15% | -15% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HCC, NWPX, FRD, NUE, STLD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CRS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 205 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -70.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 234.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1048 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -44.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1681 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 565.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5618 days | 1480 days |
Compare to HCC, NWPX, FRD, NUE, STLD
In The Past
Carpenter Technology's stock fell -48.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/27/2021. A -48.3% loss requires a 93.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CRS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 3.1% | 3.1% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.5% | 0.5% | -1.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 30.9% | 30.9% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.7% | 12.7% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Carpenter Technology
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 123.81 |
| Mkt Cap | 10.0 |
| Rev LTM | 2,058 |
| Op Inc LTM | 305 |
| FCF LTM | 30 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 105 |
| CFO LTM | 323 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 377 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -1.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 7.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 10.0 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 13.8 |
| P/E | 20.6 |
| P/CFO | 11.5 |
| Total Yield | 6.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 23.7% |
| 6M Rtn | 32.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 93.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 16.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 17.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 24.4% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1302025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1252024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8112023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1262023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2022022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |