Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.7%, Dist 3Y High is -4.7%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Lightweight Composites, Show more.
  Key risks
CRS key risks include [1] a significant dependence on cyclical aerospace and defense markets and [2] the potential for gross margin dilution from its raw material surcharge mechanisms.
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Lightweight Composites, Show more.
2 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.7%, Dist 3Y High is -4.7%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x
4 Key risks
CRS key risks include [1] a significant dependence on cyclical aerospace and defense markets and [2] the potential for gross margin dilution from its raw material surcharge mechanisms.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CRS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

It is not possible to provide key points explaining a 31.5% stock movement for Carpenter Technology (CRS) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, as this period lies in the future, and I do not have access to real-time or future stock market data and events. However, based on information available up to December 17, 2025, several factors and analyst outlooks have been noted for CRS:

1. Strong Fiscal Year 2025 Performance and Positive FY2026 Guidance: Carpenter Technology reported record-breaking financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025 on July 31, 2025. The company achieved $525.4 million in adjusted operating income for FY2025, a 48% increase over FY2024. Furthermore, Carpenter projected FY2026 operating income to be between $660-700 million, representing a 26-33% increase over FY2025. This strong performance and positive outlook could influence investor sentiment.

2. Analyst Consensus of "Strong Buy" and Price Targets: As of December 15, 2025, several analysts maintained a "Strong Buy" rating for Carpenter Technology. The average price target from analysts was $374.60, forecasting a potential increase of 16.39% in the stock price over the next year from a price of $323.62 on December 15, 2025. This positive analyst sentiment often contributes to upward stock movement.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CRS Return-39%3%29%94%142%90%620%
Peers Return19%44%26%38%9%64%432%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CRS Win Rate42%42%50%67%58%75% 
Peers Win Rate54%52%56%56%52%71% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CRS Max Drawdown-70%-4%-12%-3%-16%-11% 
Peers Max Drawdown-62%-13%-17%-4%-26%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ATI, HWM, NUE, CLF.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCRSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-48.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven93.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven205 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-70.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven234.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,048 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-44.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven79.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,681 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-85.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven565.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven5,618 days1,480 days

Compare to HCC, NWPX, FRD, NUE, STLD


In The Past

Carpenter Technology's stock fell -48.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/27/2021. A -48.3% loss requires a 93.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Carpenter Technology (CRS)

Better Bets than Carpenter Technology (CRS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CRS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
5.5%5.5%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-1.3%-1.3%-3.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
42.2%42.2%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
15.0%15.0%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Carpenter Technology

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CRSATIHWMNUECLFMedian
NameCarpente.ATI Howmet A.Nucor Clevelan. 
Mkt Price316.45107.89191.19160.6912.93160.69
Mkt Cap15.914.877.231.16.415.9
Rev LTM2,8934,5837,72131,88318,6227,721
Op Inc LTM5616311,8542,518-1,539631
FCF LTM2694441,018-331-1,547269
FCF 3Y Avg1621538572,512141162
CFO LTM4396791,4233,168-921679
CFO 3Y Avg2823721,1395,353804804

Growth & Margins

CRSATIHWMNUECLFMedian
NameCarpente.ATI Howmet A.Nucor Clevelan. 
Rev Chg LTM2.4%7.7%8.9%1.7%-6.8%2.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg14.6%8.6%13.5%-9.3%-7.2%8.6%
Rev Chg Q2.2%7.1%9.2%14.5%3.6%7.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.6%1.6%2.3%3.5%0.9%1.6%
Op Mgn LTM19.4%13.8%24.0%7.9%-8.3%13.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.6%12.4%20.5%12.9%-1.9%12.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.1%0.2%0.8%0.9%0.3%0.8%
CFO/Rev LTM15.2%14.8%18.4%9.9%-4.9%14.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.9%8.4%16.0%16.0%3.6%9.9%
FCF/Rev LTM9.3%9.7%13.2%-1.0%-8.3%9.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.7%3.3%12.1%7.2%0.3%5.7%

Valuation

CRSATIHWMNUECLFMedian
NameCarpente.ATI Howmet A.Nucor Clevelan. 
Mkt Cap15.914.877.231.16.415.9
P/S4.32.410.31.00.32.4
P/EBIT21.516.143.5--3.918.8
P/E29.725.156.718.8-3.625.1
P/CFO28.016.455.79.8-6.616.4
Total Yield3.7%4.0%1.8%7.0%-27.7%3.7%
Dividend Yield0.3%0.0%0.1%1.6%0.0%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.7%0.9%2.2%-0.5%1.3%
D/E0.10.20.0-1.30.1
Net D/E0.00.10.0-1.30.1

Returns

CRSATIHWMNUECLFMedian
NameCarpente.ATI Howmet A.Nucor Clevelan. 
1M Rtn-4.7%9.3%-4.5%8.1%17.9%8.1%
3M Rtn29.9%37.5%3.2%13.0%14.5%14.5%
6M Rtn26.3%31.3%12.5%28.4%76.4%28.4%
12M Rtn84.1%95.3%71.3%35.2%30.7%71.3%
3Y Rtn768.5%267.7%406.2%25.7%-14.5%267.7%
1M Excs Rtn-5.5%8.5%-5.3%7.4%17.1%7.4%
3M Excs Rtn27.0%32.7%-1.6%18.8%11.8%18.8%
6M Excs Rtn13.9%18.9%0.1%16.0%64.0%16.0%
12M Excs Rtn71.4%79.9%57.9%19.5%15.6%57.9%
3Y Excs Rtn640.6%191.4%328.0%-55.0%-85.9%191.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Specialty Alloys Operations (SAO )2,5422,4612,2622,1502,259
Performance Engineered Products (PEP )432452419418548
Corporate335159249402429
Elimination of intersegment-17-1820-9
Total3,2923,0542,9322,9713,227


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,652,624
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520258.9%
Average Daily Volume791,437
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.35
Basic Shares Quantity50,100,000
Short % of Basic Shares5.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/23/20254.6%6.2%3.0%
8/6/20250.3%-1.4%-2.4%
4/29/2025-0.9%5.1%18.2%
2/3/20250.5%-0.4%6.5%
10/29/2024-2.0%-1.0%19.5%
7/29/20240.4%-5.5%2.4%
5/3/2024-1.7%1.0%0.8%
1/29/2024-2.6%-9.1%-0.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121416
# Negative13119
Median Positive0.7%4.8%13.5%
Median Negative-1.9%-1.4%-7.2%
Max Positive5.3%12.4%45.0%
Max Negative-4.8%-9.1%-11.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025812202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024130202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023125202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023811202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022126202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022815202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021202202210-Q 12/31/2021