Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Lightweight Composites, Show more.
 
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Materials, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Lightweight Composites, Show more.
2 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CRS Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Strong Quarterly Earnings and Positive Financial Outlook. Carpenter Technology reported record-breaking financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 on July 31, 2025, with Q4 operating income of $151.4 million and earnings per diluted share of $2.21. The company's adjusted operating income for FY2025 reached $525.4 million, a 48% increase from FY2024. Furthermore, Q1 FY2026 earnings (for the quarter ending September 2025) of $2.43 per share surpassed consensus estimates of $2.13, and revenue of $733.7 million also exceeded expectations. Management projects fiscal year 2026 operating income between $660 million and $700 million, a substantial increase over 2025.

2. Reclassification and Robust Demand in Aerospace & Defense. Effective September 30, 2025, Carpenter Technology reclassified into the Aerospace & Defense sector, a strategic move to better reflect its growth potential and earnings capacity. The company is experiencing strong and increasing demand from the Aerospace and Defense sectors, driven by extended lead times, urgent defense orders, and multi-year supply contracts. This favorable market environment positions Carpenter Technology for accelerated revenue growth as original equipment manufacturer (OEM) build rates rise.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CRS Return-39%3%29%94%142%84%598%
Peers Return3%52%26%37%3%35%278%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CRS Win Rate42%42%50%67%58%70% 
Peers Win Rate50%58%58%52%60%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CRS Max Drawdown-70%-4%-12%-3%-16%-11% 
Peers Max Drawdown-47%-12%-17%-8%-15%-15% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HCC, NWPX, FRD, NUE, STLD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCRSS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-48.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven93.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven205 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-70.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven234.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1048 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-44.3%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven79.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1681 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-85.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven565.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven5618 days1480 days

Compare to HCC, NWPX, FRD, NUE, STLD


In The Past

Carpenter Technology's stock fell -48.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/27/2021. A -48.3% loss requires a 93.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Carpenter Technology (CRS)

Better Bets than Carpenter Technology (CRS)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CRS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
DD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025DDDuPont de NemoursDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
3.1%3.1%-0.2%
CF_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025CFCF IndustriesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
0.5%0.5%-1.1%
HL_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025HLHecla MiningQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
30.9%30.9%0.0%
CDE_11072025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11072025CDECoeur MiningDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.7%12.7%-5.7%
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%-2.5%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Carpenter Technology

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CRSHCCNWPXFRDNUESTLDMedian
NameCarpente.Warrior .NWPX Inf.Friedman.Nucor Steel Dy. 
Mkt Price310.4582.9259.4319.59164.71171.50123.81
Mkt Cap15.64.40.60.138.025.210.0
Rev LTM2,8931,22452046530,80617,6352,058
Op Inc LTM561748112,1431,519305
FCF LTM269-1594811-38531130
FCF 3Y Avg1624922253,1151,018105
CFO LTM43920767173,1301,524323
CFO 3Y Avg28247244345,8422,562377

Growth & Margins

CRSHCCNWPXFRDNUESTLDMedian
NameCarpente.Warrior .NWPX Inf.Friedman.Nucor Steel Dy. 
Rev Chg LTM2.4%-23.1%7.6%-5.8%-5.8%-1.5%-3.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg14.6%-11.8%4.8%8.6%-10.4%-8.0%-1.6%
Rev Chg Q2.2%0.3%16.0%17.7%4.7%11.2%8.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.6%0.1%4.2%4.5%1.2%2.8%2.0%
Op Mgn LTM19.4%0.6%9.3%2.4%7.0%8.6%7.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.6%19.3%9.0%2.9%13.9%13.7%13.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.1%-1.5%0.3%1.8%-0.0%0.5%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM15.2%16.9%13.0%3.7%10.2%8.6%11.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.9%30.4%9.0%6.6%17.0%13.8%11.9%
FCF/Rev LTM9.3%-13.0%9.3%2.5%-1.2%1.8%2.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.7%1.9%4.4%4.9%8.7%5.4%5.1%

Valuation

CRSHCCNWPXFRDNUESTLDMedian
NameCarpente.Warrior .NWPX Inf.Friedman.Nucor Steel Dy. 
Mkt Cap15.64.40.60.138.025.210.0
P/S4.32.71.00.21.01.21.1
P/EBIT21.5116.910.68.213.713.813.8
P/E29.795.214.013.523.118.220.6
P/CFO28.016.17.66.79.513.411.5
Total Yield3.7%1.6%7.2%7.7%6.1%6.9%6.5%
Dividend Yield0.3%0.5%0.0%0.2%1.7%1.4%0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg1.7%2.1%4.9%26.5%7.7%5.6%5.3%
D/E0.10.10.30.30.20.20.2
Net D/E0.0-0.00.30.30.10.10.1

Returns

CRSHCCNWPXFRDNUESTLDMedian
NameCarpente.Warrior .NWPX Inf.Friedman.Nucor Steel Dy. 
1M Rtn-0.1%19.3%-7.0%-12.4%11.2%10.0%4.9%
3M Rtn31.8%49.0%15.6%-7.2%13.9%32.8%23.7%
6M Rtn26.1%75.5%49.2%17.0%36.3%28.0%32.1%
12M Rtn61.7%19.5%5.8%24.5%8.2%21.6%20.5%
3Y Rtn644.2%123.3%60.7%124.4%11.6%63.7%93.5%
1M Excs Rtn-0.1%19.4%-6.9%-12.4%11.2%10.0%5.0%
3M Excs Rtn24.0%45.2%8.5%-12.5%8.8%26.2%16.4%
6M Excs Rtn11.4%60.8%34.5%2.3%21.6%13.3%17.4%
12M Excs Rtn47.1%5.0%-7.5%16.3%-5.2%6.4%5.7%
3Y Excs Rtn630.3%80.6%-10.6%47.3%-56.1%1.5%24.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Specialty Alloys Operations (SAO )2,5422,4612,2622,1502,259
Performance Engineered Products (PEP )432452419418548
Corporate335159249402429
Elimination of intersegment-17-1820-9
Total3,2923,0542,9322,9713,227


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,436,797
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-4.1%
Average Daily Volume662,399
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.68
Basic Shares Quantity50,100,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025812202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025424202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024130202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024813202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024501202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023125202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023811202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022126202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022815202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021202202210-Q 12/31/2021