Carpenter Technology (CRS)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $316.3 | Market Cap: $15.8 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Steel
Carpenter Technology (CRS)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $316.3Market Cap: $15.8 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Steel
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.7%, Dist 3Y High is -4.7% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Lightweight Composites, Show more. | Key risksCRS key risks include [1] a significant dependence on cyclical aerospace and defense markets and [2] the potential for gross margin dilution from its raw material surcharge mechanisms. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Materials, and Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Specialty Chemicals for Performance, Lightweight Composites, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.7%, Dist 3Y High is -4.7% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 28x |
| Key risksCRS key risks include [1] a significant dependence on cyclical aerospace and defense markets and [2] the potential for gross margin dilution from its raw material surcharge mechanisms. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CRS Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
It is not possible to provide key points explaining a 31.5% stock movement for Carpenter Technology (CRS) for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, as this period lies in the future, and I do not have access to real-time or future stock market data and events. However, based on information available up to December 17, 2025, several factors and analyst outlooks have been noted for CRS:
1. Strong Fiscal Year 2025 Performance and Positive FY2026 Guidance: Carpenter Technology reported record-breaking financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025 on July 31, 2025. The company achieved $525.4 million in adjusted operating income for FY2025, a 48% increase over FY2024. Furthermore, Carpenter projected FY2026 operating income to be between $660-700 million, representing a 26-33% increase over FY2025. This strong performance and positive outlook could influence investor sentiment.
2. Analyst Consensus of "Strong Buy" and Price Targets: As of December 15, 2025, several analysts maintained a "Strong Buy" rating for Carpenter Technology. The average price target from analysts was $374.60, forecasting a potential increase of 16.39% in the stock price over the next year from a price of $323.62 on December 15, 2025. This positive analyst sentiment often contributes to upward stock movement.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CRS Return | -39% | 3% | 29% | 94% | 142% | 90% | 620% |
| Peers Return | 19% | 44% | 26% | 38% | 9% | 64% | 432% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CRS Win Rate | 42% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 54% | 52% | 56% | 56% | 52% | 71% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CRS Max Drawdown | -70% | -4% | -12% | -3% | -16% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -62% | -13% | -17% | -4% | -26% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ATI, HWM, NUE, CLF.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CRS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 93.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 205 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -70.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 234.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,048 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -44.3% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,681 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 565.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5,618 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HCC, NWPX, FRD, NUE, STLD
In The Past
Carpenter Technology's stock fell -48.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/27/2021. A -48.3% loss requires a 93.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CRS. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | DD | DuPont de Nemours | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | -0.2% |
| 11212025 | CF | CF Industries | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -3.1% |
| 11212025 | HL | Hecla Mining | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 42.2% | 42.2% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | CDE | Coeur Mining | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.0% | 15.0% | -5.7% |
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Carpenter Technology
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 160.69 |
| Mkt Cap | 15.9 |
| Rev LTM | 7,721 |
| Op Inc LTM | 631 |
| FCF LTM | 269 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 162 |
| CFO LTM | 679 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 804 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 13.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.8% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 15.9 |
| P/S | 2.4 |
| P/EBIT | 18.8 |
| P/E | 25.1 |
| P/CFO | 16.4 |
| Total Yield | 3.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 28.4% |
| 12M Rtn | 71.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 267.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 7.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 18.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 16.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 57.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 191.4% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | 4.6% | 6.2% | 3.0% |
| 8/6/2025 | 0.3% | -1.4% | -2.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | -0.9% | 5.1% | 18.2% |
| 2/3/2025 | 0.5% | -0.4% | 6.5% |
| 10/29/2024 | -2.0% | -1.0% | 19.5% |
| 7/29/2024 | 0.4% | -5.5% | 2.4% |
| 5/3/2024 | -1.7% | 1.0% | 0.8% |
| 1/29/2024 | -2.6% | -9.1% | -0.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 14 | 16 |
| # Negative | 13 | 11 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 0.7% | 4.8% | 13.5% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -1.4% | -7.2% |
| Max Positive | 5.3% | 12.4% | 45.0% |
| Max Negative | -4.8% | -9.1% | -11.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10232025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8122025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4242025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1302025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8132024 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1252024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8112023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1262023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8152022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2022022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |