UFP Industries (UFPI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $91.23 | Market Cap: $5.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products
UFP Industries (UFPI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $91.23Market Cap: $5.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Building Products
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.6%, FCF Yield is 5.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.4% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Green Building Materials, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.6%, FCF Yield is 5.2% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, and Sustainable Resource Management. Themes include Sustainable Packaging Materials, Green Building Materials, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -65%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -53% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.9%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -12%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.4% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
UFPI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points explaining why UFP Industries (UFPI) stock moved by -7.8% during the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. UFP Industries missed Q3 2025 earnings estimates. The company reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.29 and revenue of $1.56 billion, falling short of the S&P Global consensus estimates of $1.385 EPS and $1.61 billion in revenue. This marked the third consecutive quarter of missed estimates for UFPI.
2. Net sales and organic units declined year-over-year. During the third quarter of 2025, UFP Industries' net sales decreased by 5 percent due to a 1 percent drop in price and a 4 percent decline in organic units compared to the previous year.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UFPI Return | 18% | 67% | -13% | 60% | -9% | -17% | 107% |
| Peers Return | 33% | 42% | -17% | 75% | -1% | 27% | 244% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UFPI Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 42% | 50% | 50% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 63% | 37% | 60% | 50% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UFPI Max Drawdown | -35% | -3% | -29% | -4% | -14% | -21% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -43% | -4% | -42% | -6% | -12% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: APG, ALLE, BLD, AOS, GFF.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UFPI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -30.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 228 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 129 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 213 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -71.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 254.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1911 days | 1480 days |
Compare to APG, ALLE, BLD, AOS, GFF
In The Past
UFP Industries's stock fell -30.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/29/2021. A -30.3% loss requires a 43.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to UFPI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for UFP Industries
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 83.64 |
| Mkt Cap | 11.0 |
| Rev LTM | 4,608 |
| Op Inc LTM | 613 |
| FCF LTM | 572 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 538 |
| CFO LTM | 658 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 646 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -1.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 2.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 15.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 11.0 |
| P/S | 2.0 |
| P/EBIT | 14.9 |
| P/E | 21.6 |
| P/CFO | 14.3 |
| Total Yield | 5.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.1% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 13.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 3.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 88.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.2% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -1.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -9.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 20.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11052025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11082023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8092023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3012023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/24/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/25/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/26/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/25/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |