Powell Industries (POWL)
Market Price (5/24/2026): $276.06 | Market Cap: $10.1 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Powell Industries (POWL)
Market Price (5/24/2026): $276.06Market Cap: $10.1 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Electrical Components & Equipment
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include Smart Grid Technologies, Renewable Energy Equipment, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.0x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 45x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 50x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 54x Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 197%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 381% Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 159% Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% Key risksPOWL key risks include [1] declining revenue from its core oil & gas and petrochemical markets, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Sustainable Infrastructure, and Hydrogen Economy. Themes include Smart Grid Technologies, Renewable Energy Equipment, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 9.0x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 45x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 50x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 54x |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 197%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 381% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 159% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.2% |
| Key risksPOWL key risks include [1] declining revenue from its core oil & gas and petrochemical markets, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Exceptional Growth in New Orders and Record Backlog, Driven by Mega Data Center and Electric Utility Projects.
Powell Industries demonstrated significant commercial momentum, with new orders surging by 63% to $439 million in Q1 Fiscal 2026 (ended December 31, 2025) and further accelerating by 97% to $490 million in Q2 Fiscal 2026 (ended March 31, 2026) compared to the prior year. This robust order activity led to a record backlog of $1.8 billion as of March 31, 2026, marking a 33% increase year-over-year. Key wins included a mega liquefied natural gas (LNG) project exceeding $100 million in Q1 and two mega orders each over $75 million for an electric utility and a data center in Q2. Furthermore, subsequent to the second quarter, Powell secured its largest order in company history: a mega data center order valued at over $400 million, providing strong future revenue visibility and stretching bookings into 2028.
2. Strong Financial Performance with Revenue Growth and Healthy Margins.
The company reported solid financial results throughout the period. For Q1 Fiscal 2026, revenues increased 4% year-over-year to $251 million, with gross profit rising 20% to $71 million, yielding a gross margin of 28.4%. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) grew 19% to $3.40, surpassing analyst estimates. In Q2 Fiscal 2026, revenues grew 6% year-over-year to $297 million, and gross profit increased 5% to $88 million, maintaining a strong gross margin of 29.6%. Despite a slight miss on EPS forecasts for Q2, the stock experienced a premarket rise, indicating investor optimism. Powell also maintained a strong balance sheet with $545 million in cash and short-term investments and zero debt as of March 31, 2026, which provides financial flexibility for growth and capacity expansion.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 89.0% change in POWL stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 83.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 147.74 | 279.22 | 89.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,104 | 1,132 | 2.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.4% | 16.5% | 0.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.6 | 54.4 | 83.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 36 | 36 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 89.0% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| POWL | 89.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.1% | 46.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.1% | 63.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 118.9% change in POWL stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 106.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 127.59 | 279.22 | 118.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,081 | 1,132 | 4.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 16.2% | 16.5% | 1.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.3 | 54.4 | 106.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 36 | 36 | -0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 118.9% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| POWL | 118.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 9.9% | 43.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 11.5% | 55.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 359.4% change in POWL stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 298.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 60.78 | 279.22 | 359.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 1,060 | 1,132 | 6.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 15.1% | 16.5% | 9.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.7 | 54.4 | 298.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 36 | 36 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 359.4% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| POWL | 359.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 36.0% | 46.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 32.7% | 54.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2038.3% change in POWL stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 414.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.06 | 279.22 | 2038.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 553 | 1,132 | 104.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.2% | 16.5% | 414.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.2 | 54.4 | 107.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 36 | 36 | -2.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2038.3% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| POWL | 2038.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 86.3% | 33.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 79.6% | 38.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| POWL Return | 4% | 24% | 156% | 152% | 44% | 155% | 2960% |
| Peers Return | 44% | -17% | 46% | 29% | 15% | 39% | 262% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| POWL Win Rate | 42% | 58% | 67% | 67% | 67% | 80% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 65% | 37% | 62% | 65% | 55% | 64% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 60% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| POWL Max Drawdown | -36% | -37% | -18% | -37% | -50% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -37% | -26% | -20% | -33% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ETN, HUBB, AZZ, NVT, GNRC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | POWL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -20.0% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 20 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -57.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 132.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 355 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -34.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 137 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 503 days | 6 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -16.1% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 19.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 62 days |
In The Past
Powell Industries's stock fell -20.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 24.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
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| Event | POWL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.7% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -57.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 132.5% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 355 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -34.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.1% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 137 days | 105 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -20.2% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 25.3% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 503 days | 6 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -54.6% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 120.3% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1401 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -30.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 43.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 310 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -25.0% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.3% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 159.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1556 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Powell Industries's stock fell -20.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 24.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Powell Industries (POWL)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies to describe Powell Industries (POWL):
It's like a highly specialized Eaton or ABB, building custom industrial electrical 'nervous systems' for large facilities.
Think of it as a custom-focused Siemens or Schneider Electric, providing specialized electrical power infrastructure for heavy industrial sectors like oil & gas and mining.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the major products and services for Powell Industries (POWL):
- Integrated Power Control Room Substations: Custom-engineered units that combine various electrical control and distribution functions into a single structure.
- Custom-Engineered Modules & Electrical Houses: Specialized modular enclosures and buildings designed to house electrical equipment.
- Medium-Voltage Circuit Breakers: Devices used to protect electrical circuits from overcurrents or short circuits at medium voltage levels.
- Monitoring and Control Communications Systems: Solutions for tracking, managing, and communicating the status and flow of electrical energy.
- Motor Control Centers: Assemblies of one or more enclosed sections containing motor starter units and a common power bus.
- Bus Duct Systems: Enclosed electrical distribution systems that efficiently convey power.
- Distribution Switchgears & Control Gears: Equipment, including arc-resistant types, used to control, protect, and isolate electrical circuits and equipment.
- Spare Parts & Replacement Components: Provision of individual parts, including circuit breakers, for existing electrical systems and equipment.
- Field Service & Installation: On-site services encompassing inspection, installation, commissioning, modification, and repair of electrical systems.
- Retrofit & Retrofill Services: Upgrading and replacing components within existing systems to enhance performance or extend lifespan.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Powell Industries (POWL) primarily sells its custom-engineered equipment and systems to other companies within various heavy industrial sectors. Based on the provided background information, specific customer company names are not disclosed. However, its major customers operate within the following industries:
- Oil and Gas (including refining, onshore and offshore production, petrochemical, liquid natural gas terminals, pipeline, and terminal operations)
- Mining and Metals
- Light Rail Traction Power
- Electric Utility
- Pulp and Paper
- Other Heavy Industrial Markets
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Brett A. Cope, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer
Brett A. Cope joined Powell Industries in 2011 as Vice President of Sales and Marketing. He was promoted to Chief Operating Officer in 2015 and then to President and Chief Executive Officer in October 2016. In 2019, he was elected Chairman of the Board of Directors. Prior to joining Powell Industries, Mr. Cope served as Group Vice President for ABB Ltd., where he was responsible for the strategic development and execution of global business initiatives for ABB's activities with ExxonMobil Corporation. He spent 20 years at ABB, beginning in 1990, holding various roles within Engineering, Project operations, and Sales management.
Michael W. Metcalf, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, Secretary, and Treasurer
Michael W. Metcalf joined Powell Industries in November 2018 as Executive Vice President and was named Chief Financial Officer in December 2018. He brings over 30 years of international finance experience from the power generation and construction, aviation, and oil and gas industries. Before joining Powell, Mr. Metcalf began his career at Dresser-Rand, a Siemens Business, in 1991, where he held various financial roles. He then joined General Electric Company in 1998, serving in roles of increasing responsibility in project finance, FP&A, commercial finance, and supply chain. Most recently at GE, he served as the Chief Financial Officer of Aeroderivative Products with General Electric Company and previously as Chief Financial Officer of Artificial Lift Systems at Baker Hughes, a GE Company.
Terry McKertcher, Vice President of Operations
Terry McKertcher is the Vice President of Operations at Powell Industries. Further specific background details were not readily available in the provided search results.
Milburn E. Honeycutt, Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer, and Controller
Milburn E. Honeycutt serves as the Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer, and Controller at Powell Industries. His prior experience includes roles as Senior Vice President of Operations Administration and Senior Vice President of Finance at Comfort Systems USA, and Vice President and Controller at Synagro.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Powell Industries (POWL) primarily stem from its exposure to cyclical end markets, intense competition, and the inherent volatility of its project-based revenue model.
- Cyclicality and Dependence on End Markets: Powell Industries' business is heavily influenced by the cyclical nature of its primary end markets, including oil and gas, petrochemicals, and more recently, data centers. Fluctuations in these industries, driven by factors such as commodity prices, capital expenditure trends, and technological shifts, can significantly impact demand for Powell's custom-engineered electrical equipment and systems. For instance, a decline in oil and gas prices or a slowdown in data center buildouts can lead to project delays, cancellations, and reduced demand for Powell's products, ultimately affecting its revenue and profitability.
- Intense Competition and Pricing Pressure: The company operates in a highly competitive industry with the presence of larger, well-established players. This competitive environment can lead to pricing pressure, which may erode Powell's margins and profitability, particularly as market supply normalizes after periods of high demand. The need to maintain a competitive edge requires continuous investment in product development and operational efficiency.
- Project-Based Revenue Volatility and Backlog Management: A significant portion of Powell's revenue is derived from large, complex, and often non-recurring projects. The timing and successful execution of these projects are critical. Delays, changes in customer requirements, or even cancellations can cause material fluctuations in the company's revenues and gross profits from period to period. While the company often maintains a substantial backlog, managing this backlog effectively and securing new orders to sustain growth, especially amidst macroeconomic uncertainties, remains a key challenge.
AI Analysis | Feedback
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Powell Industries, Inc. operates in several significant addressable markets related to electrical energy distribution, control, and monitoring. The global market sizes for their main products and services are outlined below:
- E-Houses (Electrical Houses/Integrated Power Control Room Substations/Custom-engineered modules): The global E-House market was valued at approximately USD 1.59 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach USD 2.98 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 5.9% between 2025 and 2035. Other estimates for the global E-House market include USD 1.86 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 3.33 billion by 2034. The North American E-House market was worth USD 0.48 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 0.67 billion by 2032. North America dominated the E-House market, accounting for 44% of the revenue share in 2024.
- Medium-Voltage Switchgear: The global medium voltage switchgear market size was valued at USD 102.74 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 170.65 billion by 2033. Another source indicates the global market size was USD 57 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 108 billion by 2035. Yet another report stated the market was USD 19.26 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 28.54 billion by 2034. Asia Pacific is a leading region in the global medium voltage switchgear market.
- Motor Control Centers (MCCs): The global motor control centers market size was approximately USD 6.36 billion in 2025 and is projected to exceed USD 11.94 billion by 2035. Other reports show the global market valued at USD 6.57 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 12.91 billion by 2034, or USD 6.5 billion in 2024, estimated to reach USD 10.2 billion by 2033. Asia Pacific accounted for the largest share of the global motor control centers market in 2025.
- Electrical Control Room Systems (related to Monitoring and Control Communications Systems): The global electrical control room market size was valued at USD 4.5 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 6.8 billion by 2032. The Asia Pacific region is expected to have the highest growth rate in this market.
- Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Equipment (broader category including many of Powell's products): The global electric power transmission and distribution equipment market size was estimated at USD 202.6 billion in 2021 and is projected to reach USD 326.5 billion by 2030. More recent estimates show the global market size at USD 259.98 billion in 2025, set to surpass USD 483.46 billion by 2035, or USD 256.70 billion in 2025, expected to increase to approximately USD 453.09 billion by 2035. Asia Pacific dominated the electric power transmission and distribution equipment market with a share of 52.40% in 2021.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Powell Industries (POWL) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key areas:
- Strong Backlog and Order Conversion: Powell Industries reported a record backlog of $1.6 billion at the end of the first fiscal quarter of 2026, with 60% of this backlog anticipated to convert into revenue within the next 12 months. The company's new orders in Q1 2026 totaled $439 million, a 63% increase compared to the same period in fiscal 2025, indicating continued robust demand for its products and services.
- Growth in the Data Center Market: The rapid expansion of the data center industry presents a significant growth opportunity for Powell. The company secured numerous orders for electrical infrastructure supporting data center projects in Q1 2026, and management noted that opportunities in this market are growing in both size and volume. Powell is actively expanding its capacity, including adding leased facilities, to meet the increasing demand from the data center market.
- Increased Activity in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Projects: The restart of the permitting process for LNG projects has led to a resurgence in activity for new greenfield and brownfield LNG trains. Powell secured a "mega order" exceeding $100 million for a large domestic LNG project on the U.S. Gulf Coast in Q1 2026 and is investing approximately $12 million to expand its Jacintoport capacity to support anticipated LNG work.
- Expansion in the Electric Utility Sector: The electric utility sector has shown strong growth, with Powell's revenue from this sector doubling in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 compared to the prior year. This sector continues to be a key growth driver, reflecting ongoing demand for Powell's electrical distribution, control, and monitoring equipment.
- Strategic Acquisitions and Product Diversification: Powell Industries is enhancing its offerings through strategic acquisitions and continued investment in research and development. The acquisition of Remsdaq, for example, aims to bolster the company's electrical automation strategy and open new market opportunities for control and monitoring solutions. Additionally, diversification efforts into markets beyond traditional industrial sectors, such as light rail traction and commercial & other industrial, have proven successful in driving revenue growth.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Issuance
- Powell Industries announced a three-for-one forward stock split in March 2026, effective April 2026, which is expected to increase the number of outstanding common shares from approximately 12.1 million to 36.4 million.
Outbound Investments
- In August 2025, Powell Industries completed the acquisition of Remsdaq Ltd., a UK-based provider of Remote Terminal Units (RTUs) for electrical substation control and automation platforms, for $16.3 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Powell Industries' capital expenditures were $3 million in fiscal 2021, $2 million in fiscal 2022, $8 million in fiscal 2023, $12 million in fiscal 2024, and $13 million in fiscal 2025.
- In August 2025, the company announced a $12.4 million investment to expand production capacity at its Jacintoport manufacturing facility in Houston. This expansion, which aims to add 335,000 square feet of productive capacity, is expected to be completed in the second half of fiscal 2026.
- Cumulative investments across Powell's three Houston manufacturing facilities to support organic growth plans have totaled approximately $40 million.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04302026 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04302026 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 04172026 | RSG | Republic Services | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.1% |
| 04102026 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 12.3% | 12.3% | 0.0% |
| 04102026 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.3% | 0.3% | -1.0% |
| 11072025 | POWL | Powell Industries | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 128.0% | 128.0% | -22.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 274.68 |
| Mkt Cap | 20.5 |
| Rev LTM | 4,326 |
| Op Inc LTM | 503 |
| FCF LTM | 413 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 466 |
| CFO LTM | 512 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 582 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 11.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.7% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 9.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 20.5 |
| P/S | 4.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 34.2 |
| P/EBIT | 34.0 |
| P/E | 46.1 |
| P/CFO | 31.8 |
| Total Yield | 2.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 11.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 49.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 87.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 222.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 35.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 59.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 134.0% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development, design, manufacturing and servicing of custom-engineered equipment and systems for the | 1,012 | 699 | 533 | 471 | 518 |
| Total | 1,012 | 699 | 533 | 471 | 518 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development, design, manufacturing and servicing of custom-engineered equipment and systems for the | 179 | ||||
| Total | 179 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development, design, manufacturing and servicing of custom-engineered equipment and systems for the | 150 | ||||
| Total | 150 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $279.22 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 10.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 03/26/1990 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $236.26 | $150.67 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 18.2% | 85.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 65.8% | 58.6% |
| Downside Capture | 282.39 | 165.09 |
| Upside Capture | 359.89 | 299.77 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 60.1% | 46.8% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.58 | 2.36 | 1.89 | 1.95 | 2.09 | 1.60 |
| Up Beta | 1.84 | 1.79 | 2.82 | 2.38 | 2.50 | 2.02 |
| Down Beta | -0.49 | 2.57 | 2.45 | 2.30 | 1.90 | 1.13 |
| Up Capture | 339% | 437% | 303% | 337% | 597% | 1757% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 16 | 27 | 37 | 76 | 145 | 412 |
| Down Capture | -301% | 157% | 18% | 97% | 120% | 104% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 49 | 107 | 341 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with POWL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POWL | 384.4% | 58.4% | 2.91 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 23.3% | 15.4% | 1.16 | 54.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 29.5% | 12.0% | 1.86 | 46.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.5% | 26.8% | 1.11 | 18.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 42.9% | 18.7% | 1.77 | -11.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.2% | 13.1% | 0.82 | 21.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -31.3% | 41.8% | -0.78 | 25.3% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with POWL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POWL | 90.7% | 63.9% | 1.26 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.2% | 17.4% | 0.54 | 37.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.0% | 17.0% | 0.64 | 31.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.8% | 18.0% | 0.85 | 7.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.4% | 19.4% | 0.42 | 6.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.8% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 17.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.6% | 55.3% | 0.41 | 15.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with POWL | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| POWL | 41.7% | 54.6% | 0.85 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.0% | 20.0% | 0.62 | 43.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.7% | 17.9% | 0.75 | 38.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | 4.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.8% | 17.9% | 0.35 | 14.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.5% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 29.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 66.7% | 66.9% | 1.06 | 13.8% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/4/2026 | 9.2% | 19.3% | |
| 2/3/2026 | 16.3% | 25.8% | 11.0% |
| 11/18/2025 | -11.2% | -2.8% | 3.6% |
| 8/5/2025 | -3.6% | 14.4% | 14.7% |
| 5/6/2025 | -8.0% | 2.5% | -3.8% |
| 2/6/2025 | -6.5% | -12.5% | -35.3% |
| 11/19/2024 | -16.1% | -13.0% | -22.0% |
| 7/30/2024 | 37.8% | 22.9% | 23.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 16.3% | 11.1% | 23.8% |
| Median Negative | -5.2% | -4.5% | -8.6% |
| Max Positive | 39.6% | 35.4% | 44.3% |
| Max Negative | -16.1% | -13.0% | -35.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/05/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/04/2026 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/19/2025 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2023 | 12/06/2023 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 09/30/2022 | 12/06/2022 | 10-K |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 5/4/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Operating Margin | 29.6% | 4.2% | 1.2% | Higher New | Actual: 28.4% for 2026 | ||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cope, Brett Alan | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 301.00 | 4,440 | 1,336,440 | 147,524,013 | Form |
| 2 | Williams, Richard E | Direct | Sell | 5152026 | 299.19 | 5,250 | 1,570,741 | 11,856,851 | Form | |
| 3 | Mauney, William Marshall JR | Vice President, R&D | Direct | Sell | 5122026 | 323.69 | 2,500 | 809,218 | 3,512,975 | Form |
| 4 | Cope, Brett Alan | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 4132026 | 233.96 | 4,440 | 1,038,782 | 38,568,540 | Form |
| 5 | Metcalf, Michael William | Exec Vice President | Direct | Sell | 4012026 | 528.00 | 3,000 | 1,583,987 | 14,678,284 | Form |
POWL Trade Sentinel
ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew of 1.87x indicates an attractive risk/reward profile. The investment thesis hinges on the durability of the grid modernization cycle and Powell's widening moat in this segment, which outweighs the near-term risk of a cyclical slowdown in new orders. The high upside probability is driven by the company's confirmed dominance in its primary growth market.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityThe business is project-based and directly tied to the capital expenditure cycles of its customers in the utility, industrial, and energy sectors. The revenue archetype is explicitly identified as 'The 'Project' Hunter (Cyclical/Capex)'.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for the stock is its successful penetration of the high-growth Electric Utility and Data Center markets, capitalizing on secular trends of electrification and AI infrastructure build-out. This is evidenced by a 50% YoY revenue growth in the Electric Utility segment and a dominant competitive position in providing custom, high-performance systems for these demanding applications.
- Record backlog of $1.4B as of year-end fiscal 2025, providing 1.27x forward revenue coverage.
- Electric Utility segment revenue grew 50% YoY in fiscal 2025, offsetting declines in legacy markets.
- Powell is positioned as the dominant player for 'The Grid Modernization Utility' customer profile, which requires bespoke, high-reliability systems.
- Gross margins expanded by 240 basis points in FY25, indicating strong pricing power and favorable project mix.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant risk is the sharp deceleration in new order growth, culminating in a book-to-bill ratio of 0.91x in the most recent quarter. This indicates the company is not replacing its record backlog as quickly as it is executing on it, signaling a potential near-term peak in growth and future revenue headwinds if the trend continues.
- Book-to-bill ratio fell to 0.91x in Q4 2025, down from 1.3x in Q3 2025.
- New orders grew only 1% YoY in Q4 2025, a significant slowdown from the full-year growth of 9%.
- Competitor Eaton's Electrical Americas segment reported a 20% YoY increase in backlog and accelerating orders, suggesting Powell's slowdown may be company-specific.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Book-to-Bill Ratio | Consistently > 1.0x | This is the most critical leading indicator of future revenue growth. A sustained ratio below 1.0x would confirm the bear case of a cyclical peak and lead to backlog erosion. |
| Gross Margin % | Sustain > 29% | Current premium valuation is predicated on elite execution and pricing power. Any compression in gross margins would signal an erosion of its competitive advantage or a negative shift in project mix. |
| Electric Utility Segment Revenue Growth | YoY Growth > 20% | This segment is the engine of the bull thesis. It must continue to grow at a significant premium to the overall market to offset the cyclical weakness in legacy Oil & Gas and Petrochemical markets. |
The Backlog Cushion vs. The Order Cliff
BULL VIEW
Secular trends in electrification and data centers will sustain demand, and the massive backlog provides over a year of revenue visibility, smoothing any near-term order volatility.
CORE TENSION
Can a record $1.4B backlog offset a sharp deceleration in new orders (0.91x book-to-bill), or is a cyclical peak imminent?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest Q1 2026 earnings report on Feb 4, 2026, showed new orders surged 63% YoY to $439M, driving a record backlog of $1.6B and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.7x.
BEAR VIEW
The negative book-to-bill ratio and weakness in legacy industrial segments signal a cyclical peak; the high-quality backlog will inevitably erode, revealing a sharp growth slowdown.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Early May 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Book-to-bill ratio > 1.2x and sustained gross margins near 28%. |
Next 3-6 Months | Major Cloud Provider Capex Guidance Watch: Guidance from Microsoft, Amazon, Google on data center capital expenditure acceleration vs. optimization. |
Second Half 2026 | Jacintoport Facility Expansion Update Watch: Confirmation of on-schedule completion to meet demand for large LNG projects. |
Ongoing / Next Earnings Call | Raw Material Cost Commentary (Steel, Copper) Watch: Management commentary on ability to pass through costs and protect gross margins from inflation. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-07-15 | Acquisition of Remsdaq Ltd. Details: Announced agreement to acquire UK-based Remsdaq to enhance its automation and control solutions offerings for the utility market. | Muted (0.26%) $210.16 -> $210.70 |
2025-08-11 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Beat earnings expectations, driven by strong demand from the utility sector. Announced a record $60M contract from a major utility, boosting backlog. | Stock surged +8.6% $243.39 -> $264.33 |
2025-11-18 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Despite beating estimates, the stock fell sharply on concerns of slowing growth, weakness in oil & gas, and a book-to-bill ratio of 0.91x. | Stock plummeted -11.3% $321.66 -> $285.29 |
2026-02-04 | Q1 2026 Earnings Release Details: Company reported record new orders of $439M (up 63% YoY), a record backlog of $1.6B, and beat EPS estimates. This reversed the prior quarter's negative order trend. | Stock surged +16.34% $453.24 -> $527.30 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL
Stock is in an Explosive Volatility regime (5.3x S&P) with Spiking near-term vol. While the fundamental sentiment is now Bullish, the extreme volatility caps sizing to manage drawdown risk. (Bucket B, Scenario 3).
Diversification Alternatives
ETN
SECTORETN offers broader diversification, a larger scale, and has shown more consistent backlog and order growth, especially in the key data center vertical, representing a more stable investment.
VRT
INDUSTRYVRT is a pure-play on the data center and AI infrastructure buildout, offering more direct exposure to the fastest-growing end market than Powell's more diversified business.
Powell Industries is a custom-engineered electrical solutions provider whose value is driven by its record $1.6 billion backlog and a strategic shift towards high-growth data center and LNG projects.
Filter all news through the lens of backlog growth and diversification into data center, LNG, and utility markets.
New 'mega project' wins (>$75M) in data centers or LNG; book-to-bill ratio consistently above 1.2x; gross margin sustained in the high-20s.
Book-to-bill ratio below 1.0 for two consecutive quarters; significant project cancellations or delays from the backlog; evidence of margin erosion due to fixed-price contracts and rising material costs.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in revenue from traditional oil & gas or petrochemical segments; single-analyst price target changes; general industrial sentiment not backed by order data.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the successful conversion of its record $1.6 billion backlog into revenue at sustained high-20s gross margins, driven by large-scale projects in high-demand sectors like data centers and LNG. Recent wins include a >$100 million LNG project and over $100 million in data center orders in Q1 FY2026 alone.
Industrial Projects (Oil & Gas, Petrochemical)
$558000.0B TTM (50% of Total) · 28.4% MarginWhat It Is
Integrated power control room substations (PCRs®), custom-engineered modules, electrical houses (E-Houses), and arc-resistant distribution switchgear.
Who Pays & How
Major oil and gas producers, refineries, and petrochemical plants pay for these highly customized, mission-critical systems. Switching costs are high due to deep integration into facility operations and the custom-engineered nature of the products.
Competition
Utility & Commercial Infrastructure (Incl. Data Centers)
$558000.0B TTM (50% of Total) · 28.4% MarginWhat It Is
Electrical distribution switchgear, control gear, and integrated solutions for power distribution and generation facilities, data centers, and light rail traction power.
Who Pays & How
Electric utilities, data center operators, and transportation agencies pay for reliable, custom-engineered power infrastructure. The need for grid modernization and increased power demand from data centers are key drivers.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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