Tearsheet

AGCO (AGCO)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $106.77 | Market Cap: $8.0 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery

AGCO (AGCO)


Market Price (12/17/2025): $106.77
Market Cap: $8.0 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 9.4%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -80%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.7%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
  Key risks
AGCO key risks include [1] potential failure to successfully integrate its major PTx Trimble acquisition and achieve anticipated benefits, Show more.
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Machine Vision, Machine Learning, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 9.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 40%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Machine Vision, Machine Learning, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -48%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -80%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.7%
6 Key risks
AGCO key risks include [1] potential failure to successfully integrate its major PTx Trimble acquisition and achieve anticipated benefits, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AGCO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining AGCO's stock movement for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:

1. Weak North American and South American Sales in Q3 2025: AGCO reported significant year-over-year sales declines in its North American region (32.1%) and South American region (9.5%) for the third quarter of 2025. These decreases were primarily attributed to softer industry conditions, weaker demand, and under-production in North America.

2. Overall Revenue Miss in Q3 2025: Despite surpassing adjusted earnings per share estimates, AGCO's net sales for the third quarter of 2025 totaled $2.5 billion, a 4.7% decrease compared to the same period in 2024, and fell slightly below analysts' consensus revenue estimates of $2.48 billion.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AGCO Return35%16%25%-8%-20%15%65%
Peers Return39%41%8%-14%2%1%90%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AGCO Win Rate75%58%75%33%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate58%58%50%25%42%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AGCO Max Drawdown-52%-1%-19%-17%-28%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-45%-2%-27%-28%-16%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DE, CNH. See AGCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAGCOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-41.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven70.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-52.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven111.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven203 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-33.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven243 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-78.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven368.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven3057 days1480 days

Compare to DE, LECO, DCI, TTC, ALG


In The Past

AGCO's stock fell -41.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -41.3% loss requires a 70.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About AGCO (AGCO)

Better Bets than AGCO (AGCO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AGCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for AGCO

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AGCODECNHMedian
NameAGCO Deere CNH Indu. 
Mkt Price106.48481.169.60106.48
Mkt Cap7.9130.312.012.0
Rev LTM10,04943,39717,81417,814
Op Inc LTM6588,6632,9872,987
FCF LTM7494,1012,0242,024
FCF 3Y Avg6543,986786786
CFO LTM1,0228,5563,2853,285
CFO 3Y Avg1,0508,5221,9701,970

Growth & Margins

AGCODECNHMedian
NameAGCO Deere CNH Indu. 
Rev Chg LTM-20.1%-20.9%-18.1%-20.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.9%-0.6%-6.0%-3.9%
Rev Chg Q-4.7%-8.3%-5.5%-5.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.2%-2.4%-1.4%-1.4%
Op Mgn LTM6.5%20.0%16.8%16.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.2%22.3%18.6%18.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%-1.2%-1.4%-1.2%
CFO/Rev LTM10.2%19.7%18.4%18.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.6%16.5%10.0%10.0%
FCF/Rev LTM7.5%9.4%11.4%9.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.4%7.8%4.4%5.4%

Valuation

AGCODECNHMedian
NameAGCO Deere CNH Indu. 
Mkt Cap7.9130.312.012.0
P/S0.83.20.80.8
P/EBIT33.414.36.014.3
P/E21.326.422.822.8
P/CFO7.816.14.17.8
Total Yield5.8%5.0%6.8%5.8%
Dividend Yield1.1%1.2%2.4%1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg8.0%3.4%5.9%5.9%
D/E0.40.52.00.5
Net D/E0.30.41.80.4

Returns

AGCODECNHMedian
NameAGCO Deere CNH Indu. 
1M Rtn3.7%1.1%-1.7%1.1%
3M Rtn-2.3%2.9%-11.6%-2.3%
6M Rtn4.4%-7.7%-25.2%-7.7%
12M Rtn11.2%10.0%-15.7%10.0%
3Y Rtn-9.9%16.3%-33.8%-9.9%
1M Excs Rtn2.9%0.4%-2.4%0.4%
3M Excs Rtn-4.5%0.1%-14.8%-4.5%
6M Excs Rtn-8.0%-20.1%-37.6%-20.1%
12M Excs Rtn-0.2%-0.3%-28.4%-0.3%
3Y Excs Rtn-80.3%-53.7%-103.0%-80.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Tractors8,7117,4246,3875,2725,183
Combines, application equipment and other machinery2,8232,4381,9871,5301,476
Replacement parts1,8161,6871,6881,4461,348
Grain storage and protein production systems1,0631,1021,0769021,035
Total14,41212,65211,1389,1509,041


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,549,438
Short Interest: % Change Since 11152025-6.7%
Average Daily Volume620,159
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.11
Basic Shares Quantity74,600,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/31/2025-2.8%-0.4%-1.5%
7/31/202510.6%6.0%6.4%
5/1/202510.1%11.3%15.8%
2/6/2025-5.1%-5.6%-0.3%
11/5/2024-7.8%-6.2%1.9%
7/30/2024-5.7%-14.1%-11.6%
5/2/2024-1.3%1.6%-1.9%
2/6/20241.0%-3.5%-8.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111314
# Negative131110
Median Positive2.8%4.8%10.9%
Median Negative-3.1%-3.8%-7.8%
Max Positive10.6%11.7%20.2%
Max Negative-7.8%-14.1%-15.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024224202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Bennett Kelvin EugeneSVP Engineering11122025Sell104.2825026,0701,786,316Form