Tearsheet

AGCO (AGCO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $105.16 | Market Cap: $7.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery

AGCO (AGCO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $105.16
Market Cap: $7.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Agricultural & Farm Machinery

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 9.4%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 33x
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
  Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.7%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Machine Vision, Machine Learning, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%, FCF Yield is 9.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 41%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Autonomous Technologies, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Machine Vision, Machine Learning, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -54%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -84%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 33x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -20%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.9%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -4.7%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

AGCO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback


1. AGCO's Third Quarter 2025 Revenue Fell Below Expectations and Sales Outlook was Lowered. The company reported its third-quarter 2025 earnings on October 31, 2025, with revenue declining 4.7% year-over-year to $2.48 billion, which was slightly below analysts' expectations. Furthermore, AGCO lowered its full-year sales outlook for 2025 to $9.8 billion, representing a 16.2% decrease compared to 2024.

2. Several Analyst Price Targets were Reduced in Early November 2025. On November 3, 2025, Truist Securities reiterated a "Buy" rating but significantly lowered its price target for AGCO from $142.00 to $123.00, marking a 13.38% reduction. On the same day, Citigroup maintained a "Neutral" rating and also lowered its price target from $120.00 to $115.00, a decrease of 4.17%.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AGCO Return35%16%25%-8%-20%13%62%
Peers Return22%14%9%19%-5%10%88%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AGCO Win Rate75%58%75%33%42%40% 
Peers Win Rate63%58%42%53%38%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AGCO Max Drawdown-52%-1%-19%-17%-28%-19% 
Peers Max Drawdown-38%-1%-20%-10%-15%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DE, LECO, DCI, TTC, ALG. See AGCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventAGCOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-41.3%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven70.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-52.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven111.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven203 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-33.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven243 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-78.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven368.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven3057 days1480 days

Compare to DE, LECO, DCI, TTC, ALG


In The Past

AGCO's stock fell -41.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/7/2021. A -41.3% loss requires a 70.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About AGCO (AGCO)

Better Bets than AGCO (AGCO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AGCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for AGCO

Peers to compare with:

Financials

AGCODELECODCITTCALGMedian
NameAGCO Deere Lincoln .DonaldsonToro Alamo  
Mkt Price105.13481.82240.9687.6071.23165.59135.36
Mkt Cap7.8130.413.310.27.02.09.0
Rev LTM10,04943,3974,1763,6914,5201,6154,348
Op Inc LTM6588,663728557508164608
FCF LTM7494,101546340492150519
FCF 3Y Avg6543,986544391330128468
CFO LTM1,0228,556662419589182626
CFO 3Y Avg1,0508,522648485456160567

Growth & Margins

AGCODELECODCITTCALGMedian
NameAGCO Deere Lincoln .DonaldsonToro Alamo  
Rev Chg LTM-20.1%-20.9%3.2%2.9%0.7%-2.7%-1.0%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-3.9%-0.6%4.5%3.7%1.9%3.6%2.7%
Rev Chg Q-4.7%-8.3%7.9%4.8%-2.2%4.7%1.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.2%-2.4%1.9%1.2%-0.6%1.2%0.3%
Op Mgn LTM6.5%20.0%17.4%15.1%11.2%10.1%13.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.2%22.3%17.0%14.8%12.1%10.8%13.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%-1.2%0.1%-0.0%0.0%-0.3%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM10.2%19.7%15.9%11.3%13.0%11.2%12.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg8.6%16.5%15.8%13.7%10.0%9.7%11.8%
FCF/Rev LTM7.5%9.4%13.1%9.2%10.9%9.3%9.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.4%7.8%13.3%11.0%7.3%7.8%7.8%

Valuation

AGCODELECODCITTCALGMedian
NameAGCO Deere Lincoln .DonaldsonToro Alamo  
Mkt Cap7.8130.413.310.27.02.09.0
P/S0.83.23.12.21.51.41.9
P/EBIT33.314.318.115.715.113.815.4
P/E21.326.424.822.021.019.721.7
P/CFO7.816.119.619.311.912.614.4
Total Yield5.8%5.0%5.3%6.2%6.9%5.7%5.7%
Dividend Yield1.1%1.2%1.3%1.6%2.2%0.6%1.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg8.0%3.4%4.8%4.8%4.0%5.8%4.8%
D/E0.40.50.10.10.20.10.1
Net D/E0.30.40.10.10.1-0.00.1

Returns

AGCODELECODCITTCALGMedian
NameAGCO Deere Lincoln .DonaldsonToro Alamo  
1M Rtn0.2%4.3%3.9%3.7%-4.0%-6.7%1.9%
3M Rtn-2.3%3.0%0.4%10.0%-11.1%-20.2%-1.0%
6M Rtn6.0%-4.5%24.2%27.1%-4.8%-18.8%0.7%
12M Rtn5.7%6.4%14.4%22.5%-15.8%-16.6%6.1%
3Y Rtn-14.6%12.7%69.8%50.5%-33.2%10.6%11.7%
1M Excs Rtn0.2%4.3%4.0%3.7%-4.0%-6.7%2.0%
3M Excs Rtn-9.2%-3.5%-6.3%3.3%-16.5%-26.6%-7.8%
6M Excs Rtn-8.8%-19.2%9.5%12.3%-19.5%-33.5%-14.0%
12M Excs Rtn-8.5%-8.7%-1.6%0.5%-30.1%-30.2%-8.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-83.8%-59.0%0.1%-19.1%-104.3%-58.0%-58.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Tractors8,7117,4246,3875,2725,183
Combines, application equipment and other machinery2,8232,4381,9871,5301,476
Replacement parts1,8161,6871,6881,4461,348
Grain storage and protein production systems1,0631,1021,0769021,035
Total14,41212,65211,1389,1509,041


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,733,606
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-1.7%
Average Daily Volume563,370
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.85
Basic Shares Quantity74,600,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024224202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024503202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231108202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022301202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221109202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022809202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021225202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Bennett Kelvin EugeneSVP Engineering11122025Sell104.2825026,0701,786,316Form