Uber Technologies (UBER)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $78.95 | Market Cap: $164.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Ground Transportation
Uber Technologies (UBER)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $78.95Market Cap: $164.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.9%, FCF Yield is 5.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17% | Key risksUBER key risks include [1] global legal and regulatory challenges to its driver classification model and [2] the long-term threat of being disintermediated by companies operating their own autonomous vehicle networks. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 9.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.7 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Fintech & Digital Payments, Future of Freight, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.9%, FCF Yield is 5.2% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 9.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 8.7 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Experience Economy & Premiumization, Fintech & Digital Payments, Future of Freight, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17% |
| Key risksUBER key risks include [1] global legal and regulatory challenges to its driver classification model and [2] the long-term threat of being disintermediated by companies operating their own autonomous vehicle networks. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
UBER Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -15.4% stock movement for Uber Technologies (UBER) from August 31, 2025, to December 20, 2025:
1. Tepid Q4 2025 Guidance Dampened Investor Sentiment.
Despite reporting strong third-quarter 2025 earnings with record gross bookings and Adjusted EBITDA, Uber's forward-looking guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 fell slightly below Wall Street's expectations for both gross bookings and Adjusted EBITDA. This cautious outlook, announced on November 4, 2025, led to an immediate decline in the stock price during pre-market trading, overshadowing the positive quarterly performance.
2. Significant One-Time Legal/Regulatory Charge Impacted Operating Income.
Uber's operating income for the third quarter of 2025 missed analyst estimates, primarily due to a substantial one-time charge of $479 million related to undisclosed legal and regulatory matters. This unexpected charge contributed to investor concerns regarding the company's profitability and regulatory exposure.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| UBER Return | 71% | -18% | -41% | 149% | -2% | 32% | 168% |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | 37% | 13% | 26% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| UBER Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 33% | 58% | 42% | 58% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | 30% | 55% | 55% | 65% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| UBER Max Drawdown | -50% | -30% | -51% | 0% | -6% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -10% | -21% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LYFT, DASH, CHRW, RXO, JBHT. See UBER Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | UBER | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -67.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 208.8% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 545 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -64.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 178.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 232 days | 148 days |
Compare to DASH, LYFT, UBER, CAR, HTZ
In The Past
Uber Technologies's stock fell -67.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/10/2021. A -67.6% loss requires a 208.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to UBER. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 18.0% | 18.0% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 3.6% | 3.6% | -0.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Uber Technologies
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 122.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 19.5 |
| Rev LTM | 12,342 |
| Op Inc LTM | 746 |
| FCF LTM | 917 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 620 |
| CFO LTM | 1,343 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,261 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 16.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 5.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 15.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 5.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 19.5 |
| P/S | 1.4 |
| P/EBIT | 24.6 |
| P/E | 33.2 |
| P/CFO | 20.6 |
| Total Yield | 2.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.1% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 13.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 20.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 35.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 90.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 10.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 18.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 3.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobility | 19,832 | 14,029 | 6,953 | 6,089 | 10,707 |
| Delivery | 12,204 | 10,901 | 8,362 | 3,904 | 1,401 |
| Freight | 5,245 | 6,947 | 2,132 | 1,011 | 731 |
| All Other | 0 | 8 | 135 | 119 | |
| Advanced Technologies Group (ATG) and Other Technology Programs | 42 | ||||
| Total | 37,281 | 31,877 | 17,455 | 11,139 | 13,000 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobility | 4,963 | 3,299 | 1,596 | 1,169 | 2,071 |
| Delivery | 1,506 | 551 | -348 | -873 | -1,372 |
| Loss on lease arrangement, net | -4 | -7 | |||
| Legal, tax, and regulatory reserve changes and settlements | -9 | -732 | -526 | 35 | -353 |
| Acquisition, financing and divestitures related expenses | -36 | -46 | -102 | -86 | |
| Restructuring and related charges | -51 | -2 | 0 | -362 | -57 |
| Freight | -64 | 0 | -130 | -227 | -217 |
| Goodwill and asset impairments/loss on sale of assets | -84 | -25 | -157 | -317 | -8 |
| Depreciation and amortization | -823 | -947 | -902 | -575 | -472 |
| Stock-based compensation expense | -1,935 | -1,793 | -1,168 | -827 | -4,596 |
| Corporate G&A and Platform Research and Development (R&D) | -2,353 | -2,137 | -1,881 | -2,136 | -2,457 |
| Accelerated lease costs related to cease-use of Right of use (ROU) assets | -6 | -5 | -102 | ||
| All Other | 0 | -11 | -461 | -251 | |
| COVID-19 response initiatives | -1 | -54 | -106 | ||
| Legacy auto insurance transfer | 0 | -103 | |||
| Mass arbitration fees, net | 14 | -43 | |||
| Gain on lease arrangement, net | 0 | 5 | |||
| Advanced Technologies Group (ATG) and Other Technology Programs | -499 | ||||
| Driver appreciation award | -299 | ||||
| Payroll tax on IPO stock-based compensation | -86 | ||||
| Total | 1,110 | -1,832 | -3,834 | -4,863 | -8,596 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/4/2025 | -5.1% | -5.6% | -8.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | -0.2% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| 5/7/2025 | -2.5% | 6.9% | -1.4% |
| 2/5/2025 | -7.6% | 10.3% | 7.5% |
| 10/31/2024 | -9.3% | -6.4% | -9.4% |
| 8/6/2024 | 10.9% | 18.4% | 22.4% |
| 5/8/2024 | -5.7% | -7.3% | -2.2% |
| 2/7/2024 | 0.3% | -2.1% | 12.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 13 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 5.5% | 6.9% | 16.3% |
| Median Negative | -5.7% | -6.6% | -7.9% |
| Max Positive | 18.9% | 29.5% | 28.2% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -19.7% | -23.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11042025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2152024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |