Tearsheet

CoreCivic (CXW)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.32 | Market Cap: $2.0 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Diversified Support Services

CoreCivic (CXW)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $18.32
Market Cap: $2.0 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Diversified Support Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.0%, FCF Yield is 5.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -20%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 35%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Public Safety & Justice Systems. Themes include Correctional Facilities Management, Detention Services, and Government Contracted Services.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.0%, FCF Yield is 5.2%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 35%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Public Safety & Justice Systems. Themes include Correctional Facilities Management, Detention Services, and Government Contracted Services.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -24%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -20%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CXW Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

CoreCivic (CXW) experienced an approximate -8.3% stock movement from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, influenced by several key factors.

1. Lowered Full-Year Guidance and Higher Start-up Costs: CoreCivic revised its full-year 2025 Adjusted EPS guidance to $1.00–$1.06 (from $1.07–$1.14) and Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $355–$359 million (from $365–$371 million). This downward adjustment was primarily attributed to an estimated $10–$11 million impact in Q4 from start-up losses and higher ramp costs associated with activating four new facilities, which compressed operating margins to 22.7% in Q3.

2. Q3 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Miss: For the third quarter of 2025, CoreCivic reported diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.24, which fell short of analyst consensus estimates that ranged from $0.26 to $0.27 per share.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CXW Return-60%52%16%26%50%-16%12%
Peers Return19%25%4%33%23%-11%127%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CXW Win Rate25%50%50%58%50%40% 
Peers Win Rate63%62%45%67%55%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CXW Max Drawdown-64%-4%-16%-28%-22%-26% 
Peers Max Drawdown-33%-11%-17%-7%-3%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: TRI, CBZ, CTAS, CPRT, LDOS.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCXWS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-39.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven65.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven195 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-66.0%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven193.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1470 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-57.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven135.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-70.2%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven236.1%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1258 days1480 days

Compare to TRI, CBZ, CTAS, CPRT, LDOS


In The Past

CoreCivic's stock fell -39.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -39.7% loss requires a 65.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About CoreCivic (CXW)

Better Bets than CoreCivic (CXW)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CXW. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
CXW_12312022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312022CXWCoreCivicQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-18.6%25.7%-27.9%
CXW_6302020_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG06302020CXWCoreCivicDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-27.0%11.9%-36.8%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
CXW_12312022_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%12312022CXWCoreCivicQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-18.6%25.7%-27.9%
CXW_6302020_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG06302020CXWCoreCivicDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
-27.0%11.9%-36.8%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for CoreCivic

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CXWTRICBZCTASCPRTLDOSMedian
NameCoreCivicThomson .CBIZ Cintas Copart Leidos  
Mkt Price18.60134.3051.42184.7138.85188.4492.86
Mkt Cap2.060.43.274.537.624.130.8
Rev LTM2,0877,3762,67610,5574,64717,3326,011
Op Inc LTM2032,1282132,4171,6972,0411,869
FCF LTM1131,822861,7021,2311,3381,284
FCF 3Y Avg1531,8691131,5851,0131,1491,081
CFO LTM2342,4591042,1201,8001,5061,653
CFO 3Y Avg2442,4561311,9791,5461,3121,429

Growth & Margins

CXWTRICBZCTASCPRTLDOSMedian
NameCoreCivicThomson .CBIZ Cintas Copart Leidos  
Rev Chg LTM5.7%3.0%59.2%8.2%9.7%6.5%7.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.2%3.9%27.2%9.1%9.9%6.9%8.0%
Rev Chg Q18.1%3.4%58.1%8.7%5.2%6.7%7.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM4.4%0.8%10.5%2.1%1.2%1.6%1.9%
Op Mgn LTM9.7%28.9%7.9%22.9%36.5%11.8%17.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.7%26.9%9.4%21.8%37.3%10.3%16.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%2.3%-0.5%0.1%0.7%-0.1%-0.0%
CFO/Rev LTM11.2%33.3%3.9%20.1%38.7%8.7%15.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg12.4%34.6%7.2%20.2%36.2%8.0%16.3%
FCF/Rev LTM5.4%24.7%3.2%16.1%26.5%7.7%11.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg7.8%26.4%6.2%16.2%23.7%7.0%12.0%

Valuation

CXWTRICBZCTASCPRTLDOSMedian
NameCoreCivicThomson .CBIZ Cintas Copart Leidos  
Mkt Cap2.060.43.274.537.624.130.8
P/S1.09.51.27.810.21.44.6
P/EBIT10.529.413.434.228.011.820.7
P/E19.939.831.744.730.617.231.1
P/CFO9.328.431.639.026.416.127.4
Total Yield5.0%4.0%3.2%2.6%3.3%6.7%3.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.5%0.0%0.4%0.0%0.9%0.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg10.4%2.8%3.7%2.3%2.1%6.0%3.2%
D/E0.50.00.60.00.00.20.1
Net D/E0.50.00.60.0-0.10.20.1

Returns

CXWTRICBZCTASCPRTLDOSMedian
NameCoreCivicThomson .CBIZ Cintas Copart Leidos  
1M Rtn-1.3%-13.4%-6.7%1.7%-9.7%-2.4%-4.5%
3M Rtn-7.3%-24.0%-14.8%-9.9%-19.3%6.3%-12.4%
6M Rtn-15.5%-30.9%-28.9%-18.4%-22.9%31.1%-20.6%
12M Rtn-12.9%-17.3%-37.1%-16.4%-37.6%16.0%-16.9%
3Y Rtn45.5%18.9%2.5%64.0%15.7%77.1%32.2%
1M Excs Rtn-1.3%-13.3%-6.6%1.7%-9.6%-2.4%-4.5%
3M Excs Rtn-11.7%-29.9%-19.6%-15.8%-27.6%0.4%-17.7%
6M Excs Rtn-30.2%-45.6%-43.7%-33.1%-37.6%16.4%-35.4%
12M Excs Rtn-30.3%-29.7%-51.3%-31.1%-52.3%1.6%-30.7%
3Y Excs Rtn-19.7%-52.1%-68.1%-5.8%-53.4%8.2%-35.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Safety2,2842,4332,5322,5902,606
Properties403363353676682
Community213216233234276
Corporate and other205232381209227
Total3,1053,2453,4993,7093,792


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,788,697
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120254.6%
Average Daily Volume1,405,644
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.98
Basic Shares Quantity106,853,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.6%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024221202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023220202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231107202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022221202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021218202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Grande Anthony LEVP, Chief Development Officer9102025Sell19.6510,000196,4823,351,177Form
1MARSHALL THURGOOD JR 9102025Sell20.526,000123,120903,352Form
2Hylton Stacia 5302025Sell21.694,00086,7601,799,598Form
3GARFINKLE DAVIDEVP & Chief Financial Officer5232025Sell0.00900  Form
4Hininger Damon TCEO5232025Sell22.5072,2461,625,65119,786,197Form