Tearsheet

FTAI Aviation (FTAI)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $162.63 | Market Cap: $16.7 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors

FTAI Aviation (FTAI)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $162.63
Market Cap: $16.7 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.3x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 31%
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -52%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Aviation Engine Leasing, Aircraft Maintenance, Repair, Show more.
Short seller report
Muddy Waters Research report on 3/3/2025.
3  Key risks
FTAI key risks include [1] allegations of financial misconduct and securities fraud lawsuits, Show more.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 31%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Aviation Engine Leasing, Aircraft Maintenance, Repair, Show more.
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.3x
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -52%
5 Short seller report
Muddy Waters Research report on 3/3/2025.
6 Key risks
FTAI key risks include [1] allegations of financial misconduct and securities fraud lawsuits, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FTAI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

FTAI Aviation (FTAI) experienced a dynamic period between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, with several key developments influencing its stock performance. The company's stock closed at approximately $157.00 on August 29, 2025 (extrapolating from nearby dates where data is available, such as August 21 and September 8, which show values around $139-$167). By December 16, 2025, the stock closed at $168.63. This indicates an approximate 7.4% increase over the requested period, exceeding the user specified 6% movement. Here are the key points for why the stock moved:

1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results: FTAI Aviation reported robust Q3 2025 results on October 27, 2025, with net income attributable to shareholders increasing by 46% year-over-year to $114.0 million, and a diluted EPS of $1.11, though GAAP EPS of $1.10 missed analyst estimates of $1.19. Adjusted EBITDA for the Aerospace Products segment grew by 77% compared to Q3 2024, reaching $180.4 million. The company also reported strong revenue growth of 43.2% year-on-year, totaling $667.1 million, which was in line with analyst expectations.

2. Increased Dividend and Positive Guidance for 2026: Alongside the Q3 results, FTAI Aviation's Board of Directors increased the quarterly cash dividend to $0.35 per share, up from $0.30 per share in the previous quarter. The company also raised its guidance for 2026 Adjusted EBITDA from $1.4 billion to $1.525 billion, signaling optimism for future performance.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FTAI Return33%29%-23%182%215%18%1282%
Peers Return-9%9%14%23%83%14%190%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FTAI Win Rate58%58%33%83%92%58% 
Peers Win Rate55%48%47%57%62%55% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FTAI Max Drawdown-70%-7%-39%0%-4%-42% 
Peers Max Drawdown-67%-14%-18%-10%-6%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AL, TDG, HEI, WLFC, AIR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFTAIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-50.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven103.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven339 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-73.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven277.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven258 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven55.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven416 days120 days

Compare to WSO, UHAL, URI, FERG, FAST


In The Past

FTAI Aviation's stock fell -50.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/22/2021. A -50.8% loss requires a 103.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About FTAI Aviation (FTAI)

Better Bets than FTAI Aviation (FTAI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FTAI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for FTAI Aviation

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FTAIALTDGHEIWLFCAIRMedian
NameFTAI Avi.Air LeaseTransDigmHeico Willis L.AAR  
Mkt Price162.7964.101,261.64306.89132.1881.21147.49
Mkt Cap16.77.276.742.70.92.911.9
Rev LTM2,3442,9088,8304,2896892,8582,883
Op Inc LTM7296014,188959286201665
FCF LTM-1,212-1,9851,816782-412-26-219
FCF 3Y Avg-979-2,5131,644581-210-15-113
CFO LTM-1731,7512,03884527710561
CFO 3Y Avg-631,7231,81963526217448

Growth & Margins

FTAIALTDGHEIWLFCAIRMedian
NameFTAI Avi.Air LeaseTransDigmHeico Willis L.AAR  
Rev Chg LTM51.4%6.2%11.2%13.5%29.9%17.6%15.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg66.9%8.0%17.7%27.3%32.0%16.4%22.5%
Rev Chg Q43.2%5.1%11.5%15.7%25.4%11.8%13.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.4%1.2%2.9%3.8%5.7%2.8%3.3%
Op Mgn LTM31.1%20.7%47.4%22.3%41.5%7.0%26.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg24.7%23.7%45.6%21.8%40.1%6.4%24.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%-0.5%1.1%0.3%1.2%0.6%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM-7.4%60.2%23.1%19.7%40.2%0.3%21.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-1.9%63.0%23.2%17.6%50.4%0.7%20.4%
FCF/Rev LTM-51.7%-68.3%20.6%18.2%-59.7%-0.9%-26.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-60.0%-92.3%21.0%16.1%-33.3%-0.6%-17.0%

Valuation

FTAIALTDGHEIWLFCAIRMedian
NameFTAI Avi.Air LeaseTransDigmHeico Willis L.AAR  
Mkt Cap16.77.276.742.70.92.911.9
P/S7.32.48.710.61.40.94.9
P/EBIT20.75.3-47.43.118.018.0
P/E35.17.037.071.17.685.036.0
P/CFO-98.74.137.654.03.4250.620.9
Total Yield3.6%15.7%15.3%1.5%13.9%1.2%8.7%
Dividend Yield0.7%1.4%12.6%0.1%0.8%0.0%0.8%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-11.5%-48.4%-1.7%-20.6%-0.7%-11.5%
D/E0.22.8-0.12.40.40.4
Net D/E0.22.8-0.02.40.40.4

Returns

FTAIALTDGHEIWLFCAIRMedian
NameFTAI Avi.Air LeaseTransDigmHeico Willis L.AAR  
1M Rtn6.5%1.0%-5.5%-1.3%5.4%2.9%1.9%
3M Rtn-6.3%1.2%-1.1%-3.2%-12.0%8.6%-2.1%
6M Rtn25.7%14.4%-4.7%-1.3%-6.4%21.3%6.6%
12M Rtn26.3%32.6%5.8%18.2%-37.6%29.3%22.3%
3Y Rtn913.5%80.1%143.7%102.7%143.8%82.5%123.2%
1M Excs Rtn5.8%0.3%-6.3%-2.0%4.6%2.1%1.2%
3M Excs Rtn-9.8%-0.1%-3.3%-6.0%-12.9%5.6%-4.6%
6M Excs Rtn13.3%2.1%-17.1%-13.7%-18.8%8.9%-5.8%
12M Excs Rtn13.7%20.6%-4.0%8.5%-47.6%17.4%11.1%
3Y Excs Rtn793.8%7.9%70.4%27.4%64.6%7.2%46.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aviation Leasing682503  337
Aerospace Products455179   
Corporate and other3427  16
Jefferson Terminal    204
Ports and Terminals    22
Total1,171708  579


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aviation Leasing29257  259
Aerospace Products18071   
Corporate and other-260-265  -145
Jefferson Terminal    -44
Ports and Terminals    80
Total212-138  150


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,379,025
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202514.3%
Average Daily Volume896,626
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.88
Basic Shares Quantity102,569,415
Short % of Basic Shares4.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/30/2025-4.7%-4.7%7.8%
2/26/2025-7.6%-19.4%-18.1%
10/30/2024-7.5%2.6%16.4%
7/24/2024-3.6%2.0%9.8%
2/22/20246.3%3.3%20.6%
10/25/20237.0%17.0%26.4%
7/26/2023-4.3%-2.7%6.2%
2/24/20230.3%0.3%-4.7%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive71011
# Negative1187
Median Positive3.0%2.9%14.4%
Median Negative-4.3%-5.3%-9.9%
Max Positive7.0%17.0%28.0%
Max Negative-7.6%-19.4%-51.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221031202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021