FTAI Aviation (FTAI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $171.0 | Market Cap: $17.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors
FTAI Aviation (FTAI)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $171.0Market Cap: $17.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Trading Companies & Distributors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.3x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 31% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -52% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Aviation Engine Leasing, Aircraft Maintenance, Repair, Show more. | Short seller reportMuddy Waters Research report on 3/3/2025. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Aviation Engine Leasing, Aircraft Maintenance, Repair, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.3x |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -52% |
| Short seller reportMuddy Waters Research report on 3/3/2025. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
FTAI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why FTAI Aviation's stock moved by 11.4% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:
1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results and Increased Guidance. FTAI Aviation reported strong Q3 2025 financial results, with Adjusted EBITDA growing to $297.4 million, a 28% increase year-over-year, and Aerospace Products Adjusted EBITDA increasing by 77% to $180.4 million. The company also raised its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance from $1.4 billion to $1.525 billion. This robust financial performance and optimistic outlook likely contributed positively to investor confidence.
2. Upsized Strategic Capital Initiative (SCI) and Partnership Expansion. FTAI successfully closed the final round of equity commitments for its Strategic Capital Initiative (SCI), increasing the total equity capital for the 2025 partnership to $2 billion, up from an initial target of $4 billion and double the original goal of $3 billion. This expanded partnership aims to deploy over $6 billion in capital, corresponding to a larger portfolio size of approximately 375 aircraft. This strategic growth and increased capital deployment capacity could be a significant driver for stock appreciation.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| FTAI Return | 33% | 29% | -23% | 182% | 215% | 18% | 1278% |
| Peers Return | 26% | 36% | -10% | 40% | 9% | 6% | 148% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| FTAI Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 33% | 83% | 92% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 43% | 50% | 28% | 50% | 48% | 56% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| FTAI Max Drawdown | -70% | -7% | -39% | 0% | -4% | -42% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -2% | -25% | -6% | -8% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WSO, UHAL, URI, FERG, FAST.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | FTAI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.8% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 339 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -73.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 277.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 258 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 416 days | 120 days |
Compare to WSO, UHAL, URI, FERG, FAST
In The Past
FTAI Aviation's stock fell -50.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/22/2021. A -50.8% loss requires a 103.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to FTAI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for FTAI Aviation
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 211.92 |
| Mkt Cap | 32.4 |
| Rev LTM | 7,706 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,175 |
| FCF LTM | 484 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 493 |
| CFO LTM | 1,415 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,406 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 32.4 |
| P/S | 2.9 |
| P/EBIT | 19.3 |
| P/E | 32.2 |
| P/CFO | 17.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.9% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -7.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 12M Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 72.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -14.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -15.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 0.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aviation Leasing | 682 | 503 | 337 | ||
| Aerospace Products | 455 | 179 | |||
| Corporate and other | 34 | 27 | 16 | ||
| Jefferson Terminal | 204 | ||||
| Ports and Terminals | 22 | ||||
| Total | 1,171 | 708 | 579 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aviation Leasing | 292 | 57 | 259 | ||
| Aerospace Products | 180 | 71 | |||
| Corporate and other | -260 | -265 | -145 | ||
| Jefferson Terminal | -44 | ||||
| Ports and Terminals | 80 | ||||
| Total | 212 | -138 | 150 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5052025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3032025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11122024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8092024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10312022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |