Tearsheet

FTAI Aviation (FTAI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $171.0 | Market Cap: $17.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors

FTAI Aviation (FTAI)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $171.0
Market Cap: $17.5 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Trading Companies & Distributors

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.3x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 31%
Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -52%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Aviation Engine Leasing, Aircraft Maintenance, Repair, Show more.
Short seller report
Muddy Waters Research report on 3/3/2025.
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 51%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 31%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Aviation Engine Leasing, Aircraft Maintenance, Repair, Show more.
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.3x
4 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.4%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -52%
5 Short seller report
Muddy Waters Research report on 3/3/2025.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

FTAI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why FTAI Aviation's stock moved by 11.4% in the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025: 1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results and Increased Guidance. FTAI Aviation reported strong Q3 2025 financial results, with Adjusted EBITDA growing to $297.4 million, a 28% increase year-over-year, and Aerospace Products Adjusted EBITDA increasing by 77% to $180.4 million. The company also raised its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance from $1.4 billion to $1.525 billion. This robust financial performance and optimistic outlook likely contributed positively to investor confidence.

2. Upsized Strategic Capital Initiative (SCI) and Partnership Expansion. FTAI successfully closed the final round of equity commitments for its Strategic Capital Initiative (SCI), increasing the total equity capital for the 2025 partnership to $2 billion, up from an initial target of $4 billion and double the original goal of $3 billion. This expanded partnership aims to deploy over $6 billion in capital, corresponding to a larger portfolio size of approximately 375 aircraft. This strategic growth and increased capital deployment capacity could be a significant driver for stock appreciation.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
FTAI Return33%29%-23%182%215%18%1278%
Peers Return26%36%-10%40%9%6%148%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
FTAI Win Rate58%58%33%83%92%60% 
Peers Win Rate43%50%28%50%48%56% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
FTAI Max Drawdown-70%-7%-39%0%-4%-42% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-2%-25%-6%-8%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WSO, UHAL, URI, FERG, FAST.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventFTAIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-50.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven103.2%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven339 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-73.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven277.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven258 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven55.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven416 days120 days

Compare to WSO, UHAL, URI, FERG, FAST


In The Past

FTAI Aviation's stock fell -50.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/22/2021. A -50.8% loss requires a 103.2% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About FTAI Aviation (FTAI)

Better Bets than FTAI Aviation (FTAI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to FTAI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for FTAI Aviation

Peers to compare with:

Financials

FTAIWSOUHALURIFERGFASTMedian
NameFTAI Avi.Watsco U-Haul United R.Ferguson.Fastenal  
Mkt Price170.99355.8653.89813.66252.8441.22211.92
Mkt Cap17.513.510.652.249.847.332.4
Rev LTM2,3447,4145,97215,98630,7627,9987,706
Op Inc LTM7297347004,0092,6831,6161,175
FCF LTM-1,212517-1,8204501,603965484
FCF 3Y Avg-979540-1,7174461,7951,069493
CFO LTM-1735491,6204,9821,9081,2101,415
CFO 3Y Avg-635731,5334,8122,1681,2791,406

Growth & Margins

FTAIWSOUHALURIFERGFASTMedian
NameFTAI Avi.Watsco U-Haul United R.Ferguson.Fastenal  
Rev Chg LTM51.4%-0.7%5.9%6.7%3.8%6.9%6.3%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg66.9%1.0%0.5%13.2%2.5%5.5%4.0%
Rev Chg Q43.2%-4.3%3.7%5.9%6.9%11.7%6.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.4%-1.2%1.0%1.5%1.8%2.9%1.7%
Op Mgn LTM31.1%9.9%11.7%25.1%8.7%20.2%16.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg24.7%10.2%16.6%26.5%9.0%20.4%18.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%-0.1%-0.6%-0.4%0.2%0.1%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM-7.4%7.4%27.1%31.2%6.2%15.1%11.3%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-1.9%7.7%26.5%32.2%7.2%16.9%12.3%
FCF/Rev LTM-51.7%7.0%-30.5%2.8%5.2%12.1%4.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-60.0%7.3%-29.6%2.9%6.0%14.2%4.5%

Valuation

FTAIWSOUHALURIFERGFASTMedian
NameFTAI Avi.Watsco U-Haul United R.Ferguson.Fastenal  
Mkt Cap17.513.510.652.249.847.332.4
P/S7.32.11.93.81.47.02.9
P/EBIT20.720.917.915.016.434.719.3
P/E35.129.348.124.223.145.932.2
P/CFO-98.727.96.912.322.546.517.4
Total Yield3.6%6.4%2.4%4.9%4.3%3.9%4.1%
Dividend Yield0.7%3.0%0.3%0.7%0.0%1.7%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-11.5%3.4%-14.2%0.9%-2.7%0.9%
D/E0.20.00.70.20.10.00.2
Net D/E0.2-0.00.50.20.10.00.1

Returns

FTAIWSOUHALURIFERGFASTMedian
NameFTAI Avi.Watsco U-Haul United R.Ferguson.Fastenal  
1M Rtn-1.0%-1.5%1.6%-4.9%2.1%0.4%-0.3%
3M Rtn13.6%-8.8%-5.7%-13.7%10.4%-16.3%-7.2%
6M Rtn39.8%-18.9%-14.8%17.3%17.9%1.8%9.6%
12M Rtn7.1%-32.7%-25.5%-5.5%16.4%1.7%-1.9%
3Y Rtn941.4%44.6%-19.4%135.6%-72.8%72.8%
1M Excs Rtn-1.0%-1.5%1.6%-4.9%2.2%0.5%-0.2%
3M Excs Rtn4.8%-16.4%-12.9%-20.8%1.2%-22.9%-14.6%
6M Excs Rtn25.1%-33.6%-29.6%2.6%3.1%-12.9%-5.2%
12M Excs Rtn-11.3%-47.3%-37.3%-18.8%5.6%-12.8%-15.8%
3Y Excs Rtn935.8%-30.1%-82.5%68.9%-0.8%0.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aviation Leasing682503  337
Aerospace Products455179   
Corporate and other3427  16
Jefferson Terminal    204
Ports and Terminals    22
Total1,171708  579


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aviation Leasing29257  259
Aerospace Products18071   
Corporate and other-260-265  -145
Jefferson Terminal    -44
Ports and Terminals    80
Total212-138  150


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity3,830,369
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-8.7%
Average Daily Volume1,463,900
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.62
Basic Shares Quantity102,569,415
Short % of Basic Shares3.7%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251029202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024303202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241112202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024809202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022227202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221031202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022429202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021