Avis Budget (CAR)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $134.0 | Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Passenger Ground Transportation
Avis Budget (CAR)
Market Price (12/5/2025): $134.0Market Cap: $4.7 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Passenger Ground Transportation
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 3.6 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -73%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.0 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 0.0% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Online Marketplaces. | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 496% | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.6% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -87% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 108% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -41% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 32%, CFO LTM is 3.6 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and E-commerce & Digital Retail. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, and Online Marketplaces. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -73%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -111% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -3.0 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 0.0% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 496% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.2%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -3.6% |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -87% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 108% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -41% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CAR Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The Avis Budget Group (CAR) stock experienced a decline of -15.4% for the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 5, 2025. This movement can be attributed to a combination of factors, despite the company reporting better-than-expected third-quarter 2025 earnings.
1. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions in Late 2025. Several analyst firms issued downgrades and reduced price targets for Avis Budget Group's stock in late 2025. For instance, Barclays set a price target of $120.00 on November 3, 2025, expecting a potential downside of -11.69%. Goldman Sachs reiterated a "Sell" rating with a target of $105.00 on October 29, 2025. Bank of America Securities downgraded its rating from "Strong Buy" to "Sell" on August 20, 2025, with a price target of $113. These revised outlooks from key financial institutions likely contributed to negative investor sentiment and selling pressure.
2. Concerns over Rental Car Industry Outlook and Demand Stabilization in 2025. The broader car rental industry in 2025 faced a stabilizing market after a post-pandemic rebound, with demand expected to increase only slightly, not exponentially, until early 2026. This trend of flatter rental rates and increasing operating expenses, including higher vehicle depreciation costs and pricing pressures, created challenges for profitability. The U.S. car rental market, after reaching record revenue in 2023, saw revenue stabilize in 2024, with modest growth of 4-6% anticipated for 2025.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CAR Return | 16% | 456% | -21% | 14% | -55% | 66% | 337% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 65% | -11% | 22% | -4% | 4% | 121% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CAR Win Rate | 75% | 75% | 42% | 42% | 33% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 50% | 72% | 45% | 53% | 45% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CAR Max Drawdown | -76% | -5% | -33% | -4% | -62% | -31% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -45% | -2% | -33% | -21% | -24% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: URI, PAG, UHAL, HRI, HTZ. See CAR Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/4/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CAR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -61.3% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 158.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -84.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 547.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 341 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -56.7% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 131.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 781 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -98.8% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 8433.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1524 days | 1480 days |
Compare to URI, PAG, UHAL, HRI, HTZ
In The Past
Avis Budget's stock fell -61.3% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/2/2021. A -61.3% loss requires a 158.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CAR. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 07312025 | CAR | Avis Budget | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -20.8% | -20.8% | -25.6% |
| 12312022 | CAR | Avis Budget | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 39.5% | 13.8% | -3.7% |
| 01312022 | CAR | Avis Budget | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.8% | 13.5% | -21.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 9.5% | 9.5% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 07312025 | CAR | Avis Budget | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -20.8% | -20.8% | -25.6% |
| 12312022 | CAR | Avis Budget | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 39.5% | 13.8% | -3.7% |
| 01312022 | CAR | Avis Budget | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.8% | 13.5% | -21.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Avis Budget
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 137.78 |
| Mkt Cap | 7.5 |
| Rev LTM | 9,959 |
| Op Inc LTM | 581 |
| FCF LTM | -1,003 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -961 |
| CFO LTM | 1,733 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,834 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 27.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 28.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -17.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -17.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 7.5 |
| P/S | 0.7 |
| P/EBIT | 10.4 |
| P/E | 5.1 |
| P/CFO | 5.2 |
| Total Yield | 1.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -10.1% |
| D/E | 1.6 |
| Net D/E | 1.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 12M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 0.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -15.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -71.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10282025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2142025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11012024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2162024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11012022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8022022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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