Mueller Industries (MLI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $112.62 | Market Cap: $12.3 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Mueller Industries (MLI)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $112.62Market Cap: $12.3 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4%, FCF Yield is 6.1% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.8%, Dist 3Y High is -1.8% | Key risksMLI key risks include [1] its sensitivity to cyclical housing and commercial construction markets, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12% | ||
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | ||
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.4%, FCF Yield is 6.1% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -12% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 18%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Water Infrastructure, Sustainable & Green Buildings, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Water Treatment & Delivery, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.8%, Dist 3Y High is -1.8% |
| Key risksMLI key risks include [1] its sensitivity to cyclical housing and commercial construction markets, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MLI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Mueller Industries (MLI) experienced a period of significant stock movement from late August 2025 to mid-December 2025. Several factors likely contributed to the approximate 17.9% increase in its stock price during this time.
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Performance. Mueller Industries reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025, which ended September 27, 2025. The company announced a net income of $208.1 million, a substantial increase from $168.7 million in the same period of 2024. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) also rose to $1.88, compared to $1.48 year-over-year. While sales of $1.08 billion for the quarter slightly missed analyst estimates, they still represented an increase from $997.8 million in the third quarter of the prior year. The operating income surged by 33.6%, indicating strong operational leverage and pricing power, with the net profit margin expanding to 18.1% from 16.4% in the prior year.
2. Favorable Copper Price Trends. The average COMEX copper price increased by 14.3% during the third quarter of 2025 compared to the prior period, reaching an average of $4.83 per pound. This rise in raw material costs allowed Mueller Industries to implement higher selling prices, which was a primary driver for the quarter-over-quarter increase in net sales. Copper and brass prices are influenced by global market trends, demand-supply dynamics, and oil prices, with increasing demand from various industries contributing to higher prices. The global shift towards green energy, which heavily relies on copper for electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure, is also boosting long-term demand.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MLI Return | 12% | 71% | 1% | 62% | 71% | 45% | 678% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 40% | -7% | 34% | -2% | 12% | 113% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MLI Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 33% | 58% | 75% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 68% | 38% | 53% | 43% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MLI Max Drawdown | -43% | -3% | -15% | -0% | -4% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -44% | -4% | -22% | -9% | -14% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: WLK, WTS, FELE, MTRN, CR.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MLI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.8% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 244 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -50.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 100.5% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 808 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -58.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 138.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 888 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to PAAS, ATI, WTS, HL, ADVEN
In The Past
Mueller Industries's stock fell -23.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/24/2023. A -23.6% loss requires a 30.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MLI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 11302024 | MLI | Mueller Industries | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.0% | 37.9% | -14.8% |
| 07312023 | MLI | Mueller Industries | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 22.4% | 76.1% | -13.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 19.8% | 19.8% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.2% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 11302024 | MLI | Mueller Industries | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.0% | 37.9% | -14.8% |
| 07312023 | MLI | Mueller Industries | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 22.4% | 76.1% | -13.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Mueller Industries
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 118.41 |
| Mkt Cap | 9.4 |
| Rev LTM | 2,311 |
| Op Inc LTM | 336 |
| FCF LTM | 268 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 272 |
| CFO LTM | 389 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 311 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.7% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 15.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 9.4 |
| P/S | 2.3 |
| P/EBIT | 21.6 |
| P/E | 28.9 |
| P/CFO | 16.5 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 6.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 14.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 16.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 64.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 5.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 2.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 1.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -3.2% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/21/2025 | -0.2% | 0.0% | 2.4% |
| 7/22/2025 | 1.6% | 2.6% | 7.0% |
| 4/22/2025 | 2.8% | 3.6% | 10.1% |
| 2/4/2025 | 2.7% | 6.0% | 4.3% |
| 10/22/2024 | 14.1% | 15.2% | 25.8% |
| 7/23/2024 | -1.9% | 5.1% | 4.8% |
| 4/24/2024 | 0.9% | -2.8% | 1.6% |
| 2/6/2024 | 1.4% | -0.5% | 7.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 20 |
| # Negative | 8 | 7 | 3 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 4.7% | 6.4% |
| Median Negative | -0.9% | -1.9% | -7.0% |
| Max Positive | 14.1% | 15.2% | 30.5% |
| Max Negative | -2.5% | -3.9% | -18.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10222025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7232025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4232025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10232024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7242024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4242024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2282024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10252023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7262023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4262023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10192022 | 10-Q 9/24/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7202022 | 10-Q 6/25/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4202022 | 10-Q 3/26/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/25/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |