Pattern (PTRN)
Market Price (10/19/2026): $17.25 | Market Cap: $3.1 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Broadline Retail
Pattern (PTRN)
Market Price (10/19/2026): $17.25Market Cap: $3.1 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Broadline Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Machine Learning. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 203x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 22x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 116x Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% Key risksPTRN key risks include [1] significant dependency on the Amazon marketplace, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Machine Learning. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -21%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -65% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 203x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 22x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 116x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.1% |
| Key risksPTRN key risks include [1] significant dependency on the Amazon marketplace, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Pattern (PTRN) stock has lost about 30% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Elevated Valuation and Analyst Revisions. Pattern (PTRN) faced significant downward pressure due to an "Ultra Expensive" valuation, trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 173.0 in July 2026, which was a steep premium compared to the S&P 500 median of 24.2. This stretched valuation led to a "Sell" rating initiation by one analyst in September 2026 and a downgrade from "buy" to "hold" by Jefferies Financial Group, despite an increased price objective to $30.00.
2. Underlying Profitability Challenges. Despite reporting strong Q2 2026 financial results on August 5, 2026, with revenue of $876.8 million (up 47% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $0.18—both exceeding analyst estimates by 7.3% and 50% respectively—Pattern experienced a stock decline of 6.5% the day following the announcement. This negative reaction was attributed to lingering "loss fatigue," as the company reported a negative net margin of 4.57% and a negative return on equity of 318.79%. Furthermore, its trailing twelve-month net loss stood at US$132.0 million as of Q2 2026, a shift from a profit in the prior year.
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Pattern (PTRN) stock has lost about 30% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Elevated Valuation and Analyst Revisions. Pattern (PTRN) faced significant downward pressure due to an "Ultra Expensive" valuation, trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 173.0 in July 2026, which was a steep premium compared to the S&P 500 median of 24.2. This stretched valuation led to a "Sell" rating initiation by one analyst in September 2026 and a downgrade from "buy" to "hold" by Jefferies Financial Group, despite an increased price objective to $30.00.
2. Underlying Profitability Challenges. Despite reporting strong Q2 2026 financial results on August 5, 2026, with revenue of $876.8 million (up 47% year-over-year) and adjusted EPS of $0.18—both exceeding analyst estimates by 7.3% and 50% respectively—Pattern experienced a stock decline of 6.5% the day following the announcement. This negative reaction was attributed to lingering "loss fatigue," as the company reported a negative net margin of 4.57% and a negative return on equity of 318.79%. Furthermore, its trailing twelve-month net loss stood at US$132.0 million as of Q2 2026, a shift from a profit in the prior year.
3. High Concentration Risk on Amazon. A core concern highlighted by analysts was Pattern's substantial channel risk, with 91% of its Q2 2026 revenue concentrated on Amazon. This high reliance on a single platform raised questions about the resilience of its AI-dependent growth if platform rules or traffic were to shift.
4. Negative Investor Sentiment from Secondary Offering. A secondary offering of 8,000,000 shares of Series A common stock by a pre-IPO stockholder was launched on June 15, 2026. This event, preceding the significant stock decline, likely contributed to negative investor sentiment and increased market supply, intensifying the selling pressure that saw the stock fall by 24% over seven consecutive trading days in late July 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -31.6% change in PTRN stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/18/2026 was primarily driven by a -41.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 25.19 | 17.24 | -31.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,735 | 3,013 | 10.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.8% | 0.9% | 5.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 196.6 | 115.6 | -41.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 177 | 177 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -31.6% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTRN | -31.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.2% | 32.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.1% | 40.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 38.7% change in PTRN stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 34.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 12.43 | 17.24 | 38.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,501 | 3,013 | 20.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 0.6% | 0.9% | 34.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 135.0 | 115.6 | -14.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 176 | 177 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 38.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTRN | 38.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.7% | 19.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 3.4% | 24.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 25.8% change in PTRN stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10182026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.70 | 17.24 | 25.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 3,013 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | 115.6 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 171 | 177 | -3.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTRN | 25.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.5% | 27.6% |
| Sector (XLY) | -5.6% | 28.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
nullnull
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/18/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTRN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 84.7% | 27.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | 42.9% | 29.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PTRN Return | - | - | - | - | -26% | 52% | 12% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 7% | 12% | 37% | 51% | -16% | 131% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PTRN Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 25% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 55% | 53% | 60% | 65% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PTRN Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -43% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -31% | -26% | -30% | -22% | -24% | -34% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NEE, CWEN, ORA, CEG, NRG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/16/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
PTRN has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -11.2% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.6% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -13.6% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.8% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 42 days | 24 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 874 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 98 days | 105 days |
In The Past
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -21.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
PTRN has limited trading history. Below is the Consumer Discretionary sector ETF (XLY) in its place.
| Event | XLY | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.8% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.9% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -35.9% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 56.0% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 874 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.3% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.0% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 104.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 372 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF's stock fell -21.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 27.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Pattern (PTRN)
Pattern (PTRN) operates as an e-commerce accelerator dedicated to helping consumer packaged goods brands achieve profitable growth across global online marketplaces. The company's primary business model involves purchasing products directly from its brand partners and then selling these products to consumers on marketplaces in over 100 countries. This approach allows Pattern maximum control over the customer experience, including content, pricing, logistics, and customer service, while aligning incentives with its brand partners for maximizing sales.
At the core of Pattern's offering is its proprietary Ecommerce Acceleration Platform (EXP), powered by sophisticated AI and machine learning models. This technology analyzes trillions of data points to optimize key growth levers such as advertising, content creation, pricing, forecasting, and customer service. Complementing this powerful technology, Pattern provides on-demand human expertise in areas like marketplace management, global fulfillment, marketing, and brand protection, believing that the combination of technology and expert guidance is essential for navigating complex global e-commerce landscapes.
Pattern serves over 200 brands across various industries, including health and wellness, beauty, home and lifestyle, and consumer electronics, with a global presence spanning the Americas, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company maintains strong, long-lasting relationships with its brand partners, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from partnerships extending beyond five years, and consistently demonstrates high Net Revenue Retention rates, reflecting its ability to drive sustained growth for its clients.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for Pattern (PTRN):
- Pattern is like Amazon's *own* highly optimized retail arm, but offered as an AI-powered service to *other* consumer brands, selling their products across *all* global online marketplaces.
- For brands, Pattern is akin to an AI-driven Carvana or Opendoor, but for selling *consumer products* on global online marketplaces, where Pattern takes full ownership and optimizes every step of the sales process.
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- E-commerce Acceleration Platform (EXP): A proprietary AI and machine learning-powered technology platform that optimizes and automates key levers of e-commerce growth for brands.
- Global Marketplace Management & Sales: Comprehensive services for purchasing products from brand partners and selling them to consumers across over 60 global e-commerce marketplaces.
- Digital Marketing & Content Optimization: Expertise and technology for optimizing advertising, creating compelling content, and managing brand presence to drive sales on marketplaces.
- Global Fulfillment & Logistics: Access to a worldwide fulfillment network and proprietary Warehouse Management System (WMS) for efficient product storage and delivery.
- Brand Protection & Customer Service: Services to protect brand integrity and manage customer interactions across global e-commerce marketplaces.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Pattern (PTRN) primarily sells products to individual consumers on global ecommerce marketplaces. The substantial majority of its revenue is generated from these consumer product sales. Based on the diverse range of products from its brand partners, the company serves the following categories of individual customers:
- Health, Wellness, Beauty, and Personal Care Consumers: Individuals who purchase products aimed at improving their health, well-being, beauty routines, and personal hygiene.
- Home, Lifestyle, and Pet Product Consumers: Individuals who purchase a variety of products for their households, general lifestyle needs, and the care of their pets.
- Sports, Outdoors, and Consumer Electronics Enthusiasts: Individuals who purchase items for sporting activities, outdoor recreation, and a wide range of electronic devices.
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David Wright, Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer
David Wright is a co-founder of Pattern and has served as its Chief Executive Officer since the company's inception. From 2004 to 2015, Mr. Wright held various roles within a large non-profit organization, including director of enterprise information management and database team manager.
Jason Beesley, Chief Financial Officer
Jason Beesley has served as Pattern's Chief Financial Officer since January 2021. Prior to joining Pattern, he served as CFO in London for NBCUniversal's International division, where he led a global team and was involved in the $36 billion acquisition and integration of Sky. He also held various senior financial leadership roles at NBCUniversal and General Electric.
Melanie Alder, Co-Founder and Chief Strategy Officer
Melanie Alder is a co-founder of Pattern and has served as its Secretary and a member of its board of directors since inception. She served as Chief Operating Officer from January 2013 to May 2018, Chief Investment Officer from May 2018 to February 2024, and currently holds the position of Chief Strategy Officer since February 2024.
Victoria Henderson Bowers, Chief Growth Officer and Chief of Staff to the CEO
Victoria Henderson Bowers drives global growth initiatives and partners with executive leadership to align strategy and execution. She brings over 20 years of experience leading e-commerce and omnichannel transformation at Fortune 500 and private equity–backed companies. Before Pattern, she held senior leadership roles at Newell Brands and NBG Home.
Ryan Byrd, Chief Technology Officer
Ryan Byrd leads Pattern's technology strategy and AI-driven platform innovation. With over 20 years of experience, he has built and scaled high-performing engineering teams globally and overseen large-scale software and hardware product development. He previously served as CTO at Aptive Environmental and Entrata.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company Pattern (PTRN) faces several key risks inherent to its business model and market operations:
- High Concentration of Revenue on a Single E-commerce Marketplace: Pattern's business model, which involves selling products on global e-commerce marketplaces, has led to a significant reliance on Amazon. In the second quarter of 2026, 91% of the company's revenue was concentrated on Amazon, exposing Pattern to substantial channel risk. Changes in Amazon's policies, fee structures, algorithms, or increased competition on that platform could materially and adversely affect Pattern's operations, sales, and profitability.
- Inventory-Heavy Business Model and Capital Requirements: Pattern's strategy of purchasing products from its brand partners and reselling them on marketplaces necessitates significant investment in inventory and balance sheet management to support growth. This capital-intensive model can lead to relatively slim adjusted EBITDA margins and lower free cash flow conversion, posing challenges to scalable profitability compared to asset-light technology businesses.
- Reliance on Brand Partner Relationships and Intense Competition: Pattern's revenue is largely dependent on maintaining strong, long-lasting relationships with its brand partners, with a significant portion of its revenue attributable to existing partners. The e-commerce acceleration market is highly competitive and evolving. Brands have various options, including developing their own in-house e-commerce capabilities, utilizing other service providers, or having marketplaces directly offer their products. This competitive landscape could impact Pattern's ability to secure new brand partners, retain existing ones, or negotiate favorable terms for product supply, potentially eroding its market share and profitability.
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Pattern (PTRN) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key initiatives and ongoing business strengths:
- Growth from Existing Brand Partners (Net Revenue Retention): A significant driver for Pattern is its ability to expand revenue from its current client base. The company has consistently reported high Net Revenue Retention (NRR) rates, reaching a record 129% in Q2 2026, up from 127% in Q1 2026 and 118% a year prior. This indicates that existing brand partners are deepening their engagement and increasing their spending with Pattern.
- Expansion into International Markets and Diversification beyond Amazon: Pattern is actively expanding its reach beyond its primary Amazon channel and into new international markets. In Q1 2026, revenue not attributable to Amazon more than doubled, growing 119% year-over-year, while international revenue increased by 101% year-over-year. This trend continued in Q2 2026, with international revenue growing 87% to $110 million. This diversification across geographies and marketplaces is a strategic focus for sustained growth.
- Advancements in AI and Proprietary Technology: Pattern continues to invest heavily in its proprietary technology, AI, and machine learning models to optimize e-commerce operations for brands. The company launched "Pattern Intelligence (Pi)," an AI-powered platform designed for real-time e-commerce optimization, in Q2 2026. This technology enhances capabilities in areas like advertising, content management, pricing, forecasting, and customer service, leading to increased sales for its brand partners and, consequently, for Pattern itself. Research and development (R&D) spending, including AI token usage, is projected to outpace revenue growth, underscoring this commitment.
- Growth in New Brand Partner Acquisitions: While robust growth from existing partners is a strong indicator, the company's "flywheel effect" business model also emphasizes the identification and acquisition of new, high-potential brand partners. The overall strong revenue growth, such as the 47% year-over-year increase in Q2 2026, suggests continued success in onboarding new brands to its platform.
- Penetration of Social Commerce Channels: Pattern is strategically positioning itself to capitalize on emerging trends in e-commerce, specifically the shift towards social commerce. The company acknowledges and aims to leverage the integration of shopping experiences within social media platforms, citing examples like TikTok. This expansion into new digital commerce avenues represents a growth opportunity by extending its services to brands seeking to monetize these channels.
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Share Repurchases
- Pattern's Board of Directors authorized a $100 million share repurchase program for its Series A common stock on March 2, 2026.
- As of August 5, 2026, the company had repurchased 319,531 Series A shares for $3.7 million under this program, leaving $96.3 million available.
Share Issuance
- Pattern Group completed its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on September 19, 2025, listing on Nasdaq under the ticker PTRN.
- During the IPO, Pattern sold 10,714,286 shares of Series A common stock at $14.00 per share, generating approximately $150 million in gross proceeds for the company.
- On June 15, 2026, an entity affiliated with Knox Lane LP, a pre-IPO stockholder, launched a secondary public offering of 8 million shares of Series A common stock, with an option for underwriters to purchase an additional 1.2 million shares, totaling approximately $174.8 million. Pattern did not receive any proceeds from this secondary offering.
Inbound Investments
- In 2022, while still a private company, Pattern raised over $225 million in funding to support its global expansion efforts.
- Prior to its September 2025 IPO, Pattern was backed by investors, including Knox Lane and Banner Capital, and had raised over $1 billion since its founding.
Outbound Investments
- Pattern acquired Current, an influencer marketing platform, on August 17, 2022.
- In December 2025, Pattern made two acquisitions: ROI Hunter a.s., a retail media platform (December 3, 2025), and NextWave, a TikTok commerce agency (December 18, 2025).
Capital Expenditures
- For the full fiscal year 2025, capital expenditures totaled $20.5 million.
- In the first quarter of 2026, capital expenditures were $9.3 million.
- Capital expenditures for the trailing twelve months leading up to Q2 2026 (ending June 30, 2026) were reported as -$30.10 million.
Peer Outperformance in Broadline Retail
null| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Services | 14 | -19.9% | 82.6% | 91.0% | CVSA 247% · PRDO 235% · LRN 148% |
| Homebuilding | 18 | -8.6% | 40.7% | 41.3% | GRBK 181% · PHM 141% · TOL 135% |
| Specialty Stores | 7 | 15.0% | 42.6% | 15.9% | ASO 49% · DKS 31% · FIVE 16% |
| Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | 21 | 11.2% | 50.2% | 13.8% | RCL 234% · MAR 154% · HLT 143% |
| Home Furnishings | 3 | -5.6% | 52.0% | 1.3% | SGI 44% · MHK -36% |
| Home Improvement Retail | 5 | -18.8% | 10.0% | -1.9% | HD -1% · LOW -2% · FND -64% |
| Automotive Retail | 17 | -13.1% | 10.3% | -8.4% | MUSA 233% · PAG 129% · ORLY 110% |
| Specialized Consumer Services | 10 | -13.0% | 23.6% | -13.2% | HRB 134% · FTDR 84% · SCI 42% |
| Footwear | 9 | 72.1% | 45.8% | -14.0% | DECK 40% · SHOO 18% · CROX -14% |
| Distributors | 4 | -9.2% | -15.4% | -15.9% | ARMK 122% · GPC 22% · LKQ -54% |
| Restaurants | 36 | -5.2% | -5.8% | -18.6% | EAT 322% · CAKE 200% · TXRH 102% |
| Household Appliances | 17 | -2.4% | 27.5% | -35.8% | |
| Apparel Retail | 26 | 5.1% | 7.7% | -38.4% | ANF 290% · TJX 145% · ROST 128% |
| Leisure Facilities | 12 | 10.8% | -5.8% | -41.3% | LTH 149% · OSW 117% · PLNT -37% |
| Computer & Electronics Retail | 3 | 16.2% | 54.2% | -42.4% | BBY 1% · GME -42% |
| Leisure Products | 14 | -18.3% | -17.0% | -44.9% | GOLF 78% · HAS 30% · MAT -14% |
| Automotive Parts & Equipment | 39 | -12.1% | -13.5% | -46.4% | MOD 1144% · GTX 253% · BWA 54% |
| Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods | 29 | 1.3% | 15.1% | -46.9% | RL 256% · TPR 254% · KTB 74% |
| Broadline Retail ← | 13 | 9.6% | 29.3% | -48.2% | EBAY 77% · AMZN 45% · OLLI 40% |
| Casinos & Gaming | 20 | -11.3% | -25.9% | -50.9% | MCRI 86% · BYD 10% · RRR 9% |
| Automobile Manufacturers | 8 | -73.4% | -53.6% | -77.7% | GM 54% · TSLA 22% · F 9% |
| Other Specialty Retail | 17 | -34.0% | -32.7% | -77.8% | ULTA 46% · TSCO -11% · BBWI -66% |
| Consumer Electronics | 11 | -27.6% | -33.4% | -78.3% | GRMN 98% · SONO -47% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Pattern Stock Slides 24% With A 7-Day Losing Spree | 07/25/2026 | |
| Pattern Stock Pre-Market (+8.3%): Reports Q4 Beat, Initiates $100M Share Buyback | 03/06/2026 | |
| Pattern Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 84.55 |
| Mkt Cap | 13.6 |
| Rev LTM | 15,857 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,157 |
| FCF LTM | 312 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 492 |
| CFO LTM | 1,286 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 855 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 19.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 17.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 18.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 14.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 36.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $17.24 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 3.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 09/19/2025 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -41.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $19.57 | $17.33 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -11.9% | -0.5% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 50.6% | 70.0% |
| Downside Capture | 375.45 | 153.50 |
| Upside Capture | 60.23 | 153.50 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | 28.2% | 25.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.44 | 1.62 | 1.72 | 0.90 | 1.50 | -0.04 |
| Up Beta | 3.64 | 0.81 | 1.44 | 0.86 | 1.50 | -0.54 |
| Down Beta | 2.33 | 0.23 | 1.00 | 0.49 | 1.37 | -0.31 |
| Up Capture | 13% | 97% | 98% | 129% | 203% | 18% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 18 | 24 | 64 | 123 | 125 |
| Down Capture | 314% | 359% | 287% | 83% | 132% | 79% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 24 | 40 | 61 | 128 | 132 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PTRN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTRN | 23.2% | 70.0% | 0.58 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -3.6% | 19.2% | -0.32 | 27.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 12.7% | 0.86 | 26.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | -1.4% | 29.4% | -0.05 | 11.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 52.4% | 20.7% | 1.92 | -4.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 13.7% | 0.09 | 6.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -26.5% | 43.6% | -0.59 | 23.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PTRN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTRN | 2.0% | 69.7% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.1% | 24.1% | 0.17 | 29.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 27.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.4% | 18.9% | 0.79 | 10.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.9% | 19.5% | 0.39 | -3.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.6% | 18.8% | -0.02 | 7.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.6% | 51.8% | 0.34 | 25.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PTRN | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTRN | 1.0% | 69.7% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.0% | 22.2% | 0.49 | 29.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 27.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.4% | 0.61 | 10.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | -3.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 7.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.1% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 25.7% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Insider Activity
Updated 9/3/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kl, Pattern Holdings LP | See footnote | Sell | 6232026 | 18.14 | 9,200,000 | 166,934,000 | 344,329,355 | Form | |
| 2 | Mather, Ann | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 20.21 | 3,755 | 75,889 | 790,413 | Form | |
| 3 | Mather, Ann | Direct | Sell | 5182026 | 16.51 | 5,301 | 87,520 | 520,214 | Form | |
| 4 | Kl, Pattern Holdings LP | See footnote | Buy | 9262025 | 12.47 | 200,000 | 2,493,080 | 351,231,867 | Form | |
| 5 | Kl, Pattern Holdings LP | See footnote | Buy | 9262025 | 13.38 | 102,256 | 1,367,899 | 374,247,798 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kl, Pattern Holdings LP | See footnote | Sell | 6232026 | 18.14 | 9,200,000 | 166,934,000 | 344,329,355 | Form | |
| 2 | Mather, Ann | Direct | Sell | 6032026 | 20.21 | 3,755 | 75,889 | 790,413 | Form | |
| 3 | Mather, Ann | Direct | Sell | 5182026 | 16.51 | 5,301 | 87,520 | 520,214 | Form | |
| 4 | Kl, Pattern Holdings LP | See footnote | Buy | 9262025 | 12.47 | 200,000 | 2,493,080 | 351,231,867 | Form | |
| 5 | Kl, Pattern Holdings LP | See footnote | Buy | 9262025 | 13.38 | 102,256 | 1,367,899 | 374,247,798 | Form | |
| 6 | Gay, Daniel | KSV Pattern, LLC | Sell | 9242025 | 13.02 | 1,010,887 | 13,161,749 | 37,738,548 | Form | |
| 7 | Gay, Daniel | KSV Pattern II, LLC | Sell | 9242025 | 13.02 | 289,113 | 3,764,251 | 10,799,764 | Form | |
| 8 | Wright, David K | Chief Executive Officer | Wright Irrevocable Trust | Sell | 9242025 | 13.02 | 5,694,671 | 74,144,616 | 589,770,586 | Form |
| 9 | Wright, David K | Chief Executive Officer | Alder Irrevocable Trust | Sell | 9242025 | 13.02 | 3,719,615 | 48,429,387 | 383,029,977 | Form |
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Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Broadline Retail Resources |
| Chain Store Age |
| RetailWire |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.