Constellation Energy (CEG)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $341.03 | Market Cap: $106.7 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Electric Utilities
Constellation Energy (CEG)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $341.03Market Cap: $106.7 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Electric Utilities
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 2.4 Bil | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 25x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 43x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 38x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Hydrogen Economy, and Datacenter Power. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. | Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 59% | |
| Key risksCEG key risks include [1] substantial maintenance and capital costs from its aging nuclear fleet and [2] potential changes to the supportive regulatory policies it relies on. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 2.4 Bil |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Hydrogen Economy, and Datacenter Power. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 25x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 43x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 38x |
| Not cash flow generativeFCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -1.1% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 59% |
| Key risksCEG key risks include [1] substantial maintenance and capital costs from its aging nuclear fleet and [2] potential changes to the supportive regulatory policies it relies on. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
CEG Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate 10.8% stock movement of Constellation Energy (CEG) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Strong Q2 2025 Earnings Report and Reaffirmed Full-Year Guidance. Constellation Energy reported robust second-quarter 2025 financial results on August 7, 2025, with GAAP Net Income of $2.67 per share and Adjusted Operating Earnings of $1.91 per share, an improvement over the prior year. The company also reaffirmed its full-year adjusted operating earnings guidance for 2025, projecting a range of $8.90 to $9.60 per share, which provided a positive outlook for investors.
2. Strategic Growth Investments and Calpine Acquisition Progress. Constellation Energy announced plans to invest over $2.5 billion in 2025 to enhance operational reliability and fund growth projects aimed at meeting increasing power demand. Additionally, the acquisition of Calpine Corporation received necessary regulatory approvals from FERC and state bodies, remaining on track to close by the end of 2025. This acquisition is expected to significantly expand Constellation's position as a leading wholesale power provider.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| CEG Return | � | � | � | 37% | 93% | 64% | � |
| Peers Return | 4% | 24% | 3% | 6% | 66% | 17% | 174% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| CEG Win Rate | � | � | 80% | 67% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 62% | 62% | 52% | 62% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| CEG Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -15% | -5% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -9% | -14% | -18% | -5% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEE, DUK, SO, VST, EXC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | CEG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 124 days | 464 days |
Compare to NU, EXC, ETR, FE, EIX
In The Past
Constellation Energy's stock fell -24.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/25/2022. A -24.5% loss requires a 32.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to CEG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.7% | 6.7% | -3.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.9% | -0.9% | -2.4% |
| 09262025 | PCG | PG&E | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.2% | 2.2% | -0.8% |
| 09052025 | AES | AES | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.7% | 6.7% | -3.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Constellation Energy
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 102.23 |
| Mkt Cap | 93.6 |
| Rev LTM | 25,570 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,232 |
| FCF LTM | -598 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -1,576 |
| CFO LTM | 7,907 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,974 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 23.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 29.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -2.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -5.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 93.6 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/EBIT | 16.6 |
| P/E | 23.7 |
| P/CFO | 12.1 |
| Total Yield | 6.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.8% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.1% |
| D/E | 0.7 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -5.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 14.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 36.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -0.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -7.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 1.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -34.8% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 5,904 | |||
| Other Power Regions | 5,851 | |||
| Mid-Atlantic | 5,138 | |||
| Midwest | 4,658 | |||
| New York | 2,021 | |||
| Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) | 1,346 | |||
| Natural Gas Revenues | 4,967 | 3,379 | 2,003 | |
| Other Revenues | -211 | -20 | 540 | |
| Segment Power Revenues | 19,684 | 16,290 | 15,060 | |
| Total | 24,918 | 24,440 | 19,649 | 17,603 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/7/2025 | 2.0% | -4.3% | 2.4% |
| 8/7/2025 | -0.6% | -3.2% | -10.8% |
| 5/6/2025 | 10.3% | 14.9% | 20.8% |
| 2/18/2025 | 2.6% | -15.6% | -33.4% |
| 11/4/2024 | -12.5% | -7.3% | -4.0% |
| 8/6/2024 | 6.5% | 10.4% | 4.6% |
| 5/9/2024 | 3.8% | 7.4% | -4.7% |
| 2/27/2024 | 16.9% | 32.1% | 39.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| # Negative | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 10.0% | 12.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -7.3% | -7.5% |
| Max Positive | 16.9% | 32.1% | 39.4% |
| Max Negative | -12.5% | -15.6% | -33.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5062025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2182025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11042024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11062023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2162023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5122022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2252022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | Bauer Matthew N | SVP & Controller | 2212025 | Sell | 310.38 | 3,904 | 1,211,705 | 2,074,237 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |