Tearsheet

Tractor Supply (TSCO)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $53.5 | Market Cap: $28.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail

Tractor Supply (TSCO)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $53.5
Market Cap: $28.3 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Other Specialty Retail

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37%
Key risks
TSCO key risks include [1] reduced discretionary spending by its core rural consumer base due to macroeconomic pressures and [2] a narrowing comparable sales gap with a wide array of competitors, Show more.
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more.
  
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 28%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more.
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37%
4 Key risks
TSCO key risks include [1] reduced discretionary spending by its core rural consumer base due to macroeconomic pressures and [2] a narrowing comparable sales gap with a wide array of competitors, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

TSCO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

From approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, Tractor Supply (TSCO) experienced an approximate stock decline of 13%. Here are the key points contributing to this movement:

1. Narrowed Fiscal Year 2025 Guidance: On October 23, 2025, Tractor Supply released its third-quarter 2025 financial results and, despite increased net sales and comparable store sales, narrowed its fiscal year 2025 guidance. The updated outlook for net sales growth and diluted earnings per share (EPS) was perceived as less robust than previous expectations, with the midpoint of the new EPS guidance slightly below analyst consensus, leading to an immediate stock drop in early trading.

2. Weakening Economic Environment: Broader macroeconomic pressures, including concerns about persistent inflation, flat retail sales, and a rising unemployment rate in October and November 2025, created a challenging environment for the retail sector and contributed to a bearish sentiment towards TSCO.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TSCO Return52%72%-4%-3%25%1%209%
Peers Return-32%-8%17%-8%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TSCO Win Rate50%83%42%67%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate56%33%45%47%43% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TSCO Max Drawdown-28%-1%-28%-15%-1%-9% 
Peers Max Drawdown-43%-29%-24%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HD, LOW, CHWY, WOOF, CENT. See TSCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventTSCOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-28.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven39.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven267 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-32.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven48.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven39 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven54.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven176 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-51.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven103.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven600 days1,480 days

Compare to HD, LOW, WSM, BG, BBBY


In The Past

Tractor Supply's stock fell -28.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -28.5% loss requires a 39.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Tractor Supply (TSCO)

Better Bets than Tractor Supply (TSCO)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TSCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.0%13.0%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.4%6.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-1.6%
TSCO_2282018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02282018TSCOTractor SupplyDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
34.2%49.0%-10.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
13.0%13.0%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
6.4%6.4%-0.1%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%-4.4%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.1%17.1%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
14.1%14.1%-1.6%
TSCO_2282018_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield02282018TSCOTractor SupplyDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
34.2%49.0%-10.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Tractor Supply

Peers to compare with:

Financials

TSCOHDLOWCHWYWOOFCENTMedian
NameTractor .Home Dep.Lowe's C.Chewy Petco He.Central . 
Mkt Price53.49356.75247.9632.793.0333.7643.62
Mkt Cap28.3354.3138.616.81.12.122.5
Rev LTM15,399166,18984,25612,5845,9983,12913,992
Op Inc LTM1,48821,53610,274202106250869
FCF LTM95213,9277,050487130291720
FCF 3Y Avg76916,1066,75838960324579
CFO LTM1,82817,6499,2086362573331,232
CFO 3Y Avg1,59919,5188,8385372303701,068

Growth & Margins

TSCOHDLOWCHWYWOOFCENTMedian
NameTractor .Home Dep.Lowe's C.Chewy Petco He.Central . 
Rev Chg LTM4.3%7.5%0.6%10.0%-3.9%-2.2%2.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.5%1.9%-4.2%8.5%0.2%-2.1%1.1%
Rev Chg Q7.2%2.8%3.2%8.3%-3.1%1.3%3.0%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.7%0.7%0.8%1.9%-0.8%0.3%0.7%
Op Mgn LTM9.7%13.0%12.2%1.6%1.8%8.0%8.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.9%13.7%12.5%0.9%1.2%6.7%8.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.0%-0.1%-0.2%0.3%0.4%0.8%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM11.9%10.6%10.9%5.1%4.3%10.6%10.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.6%12.4%10.3%4.6%3.8%11.5%10.5%
FCF/Rev LTM6.2%8.4%8.4%3.9%2.2%9.3%7.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.1%10.2%7.9%3.3%1.0%10.1%6.5%

Valuation

TSCOHDLOWCHWYWOOFCENTMedian
NameTractor .Home Dep.Lowe's C.Chewy Petco He.Central . 
Mkt Cap28.3354.3138.616.81.12.122.5
P/S2.02.11.61.30.20.71.5
P/EBIT20.216.413.3--7.614.8
P/E27.324.320.481.2-494.112.822.4
P/CFO16.520.115.126.44.26.315.8
Total Yield3.7%6.7%6.8%1.2%-0.2%7.8%5.2%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.6%1.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.9%4.5%4.9%--14.4%4.7%
D/E0.20.20.3--0.70.3
Net D/E0.20.20.3--0.30.2

Returns

TSCOHDLOWCHWYWOOFCENTMedian
NameTractor .Home Dep.Lowe's C.Chewy Petco He.Central . 
1M Rtn-0.4%0.3%10.2%-5.4%7.8%8.8%4.1%
3M Rtn-9.1%-13.9%-7.0%-14.2%-12.7%-4.9%-10.9%
6M Rtn3.6%4.1%18.8%-21.1%24.7%-1.6%3.8%
12M Rtn-1.2%-10.5%-1.9%-2.4%-31.8%-21.7%-6.5%
3Y Rtn33.9%19.1%27.6%-22.7%-69.0%15.0%17.0%
1M Excs Rtn-1.1%-0.4%9.5%-6.2%7.1%8.0%3.3%
3M Excs Rtn-11.6%-15.3%-8.2%-16.0%-15.0%-7.4%-13.3%
6M Excs Rtn-8.7%-8.3%6.4%-33.5%12.3%-14.0%-8.5%
12M Excs Rtn-15.8%-23.4%-14.7%-9.4%-43.0%-28.2%-19.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-37.0%-51.0%-40.1%-95.8%-139.8%-61.1%-56.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Livestock, Equine & Agriculture3,9303,9775,9844,9923,925
Companion Animal3,6393,267   
Seasonal & Recreation3,2023,1252,6742,2301,754
Truck, Tool & Hardware2,3292,2732,6742,2301,670
Clothing, Gift & Décor1,4561,5631,018743668
Agriculture  382425334
Total14,55614,20512,73110,6208,352


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity31,971,454
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520251.0%
Average Daily Volume6,233,365
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.13
Basic Shares Quantity529,742,000
Short % of Basic Shares6.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/23/20252.8%-1.1%-3.6%
7/24/2025-0.5%-3.0%2.3%
4/24/2025-3.4%-0.2%-2.1%
1/30/2025-5.0%-6.2%-2.8%
10/24/2024-6.1%-8.3%-6.3%
7/25/2024-1.9%0.3%1.1%
4/25/20242.8%5.1%9.7%
2/1/20244.6%3.9%12.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91113
# Negative141210
Median Positive4.0%5.1%4.4%
Median Negative-3.4%-3.4%-3.2%
Max Positive6.0%10.0%14.2%
Max Negative-8.1%-11.1%-12.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/28/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023223202410-K 12/30/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023810202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023427202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/24/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/25/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/26/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/25/2021