Tractor Supply (TSCO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $53.5 | Market Cap: $28.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail
Tractor Supply (TSCO)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $53.5Market Cap: $28.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Other Specialty Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37% | Key risksTSCO key risks include [1] reduced discretionary spending by its core rural consumer base due to macroeconomic pressures and [2] a narrowing comparable sales gap with a wide array of competitors, Show more. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 28% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -17%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -37% |
| Key risksTSCO key risks include [1] reduced discretionary spending by its core rural consumer base due to macroeconomic pressures and [2] a narrowing comparable sales gap with a wide array of competitors, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
TSCO Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
From approximately August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025, Tractor Supply (TSCO) experienced an approximate stock decline of 13%. Here are the key points contributing to this movement:
1. Narrowed Fiscal Year 2025 Guidance: On October 23, 2025, Tractor Supply released its third-quarter 2025 financial results and, despite increased net sales and comparable store sales, narrowed its fiscal year 2025 guidance. The updated outlook for net sales growth and diluted earnings per share (EPS) was perceived as less robust than previous expectations, with the midpoint of the new EPS guidance slightly below analyst consensus, leading to an immediate stock drop in early trading.
2. Weakening Economic Environment: Broader macroeconomic pressures, including concerns about persistent inflation, flat retail sales, and a rising unemployment rate in October and November 2025, created a challenging environment for the retail sector and contributed to a bearish sentiment towards TSCO.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TSCO Return | 52% | 72% | -4% | -3% | 25% | 1% | 209% |
| Peers Return | � | � | -32% | -8% | 17% | -8% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TSCO Win Rate | 50% | 83% | 42% | 67% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 56% | 33% | 45% | 47% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TSCO Max Drawdown | -28% | -1% | -28% | -15% | -1% | -9% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | -43% | -29% | -24% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HD, LOW, CHWY, WOOF, CENT. See TSCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TSCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -28.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 267 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -32.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 48.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 54.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 176 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -51.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 600 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HD, LOW, WSM, BG, BBBY
In The Past
Tractor Supply's stock fell -28.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -28.5% loss requires a 39.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to TSCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| 02282018 | TSCO | Tractor Supply | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 34.2% | 49.0% | -10.2% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| 02282018 | TSCO | Tractor Supply | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 34.2% | 49.0% | -10.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Tractor Supply
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 43.62 |
| Mkt Cap | 22.5 |
| Rev LTM | 13,992 |
| Op Inc LTM | 869 |
| FCF LTM | 720 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 579 |
| CFO LTM | 1,232 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,068 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 22.5 |
| P/S | 1.5 |
| P/EBIT | 14.8 |
| P/E | 22.4 |
| P/CFO | 15.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.9% |
| 6M Rtn | 3.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -6.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 17.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -19.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -56.1% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livestock, Equine & Agriculture | 3,930 | 3,977 | 5,984 | 4,992 | 3,925 |
| Companion Animal | 3,639 | 3,267 | |||
| Seasonal & Recreation | 3,202 | 3,125 | 2,674 | 2,230 | 1,754 |
| Truck, Tool & Hardware | 2,329 | 2,273 | 2,674 | 2,230 | 1,670 |
| Clothing, Gift & Décor | 1,456 | 1,563 | 1,018 | 743 | 668 |
| Agriculture | 382 | 425 | 334 | ||
| Total | 14,556 | 14,205 | 12,731 | 10,620 | 8,352 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/23/2025 | 2.8% | -1.1% | -3.6% |
| 7/24/2025 | -0.5% | -3.0% | 2.3% |
| 4/24/2025 | -3.4% | -0.2% | -2.1% |
| 1/30/2025 | -5.0% | -6.2% | -2.8% |
| 10/24/2024 | -6.1% | -8.3% | -6.3% |
| 7/25/2024 | -1.9% | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| 4/25/2024 | 2.8% | 5.1% | 9.7% |
| 2/1/2024 | 4.6% | 3.9% | 12.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.4% |
| Median Negative | -3.4% | -3.4% | -3.2% |
| Max Positive | 6.0% | 10.0% | 14.2% |
| Max Negative | -8.1% | -11.1% | -12.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/27/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2232024 | 10-K 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8102023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/24/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/25/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/26/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/25/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |