Tractor Supply (TSCO)
Market Price (7/25/2026): $0 | Market Cap: $-Investor Relations Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Other Specialty Retail
Tractor Supply (TSCO)
Market Price (7/25/2026): $0Market Cap: $-Sector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Other Specialty Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.4% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32% Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.5 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -75%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% | Key risksTSCO key risks include [1] reduced discretionary spending by its core rural consumer base due to macroeconomic pressures and [2] a narrowing comparable sales gap with a wide array of competitors, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, Dividend Yield is 3.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.4% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32% |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 1.5 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 31% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, and Sustainable Consumption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -75%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -85% |
| Key risksTSCO key risks include [1] reduced discretionary spending by its core rural consumer base due to macroeconomic pressures and [2] a narrowing comparable sales gap with a wide array of competitors, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Tractor Supply (TSCO) stock has lost about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Fiscal Q2 2026 Performance and Reduced Full-Year Outlook.
Tractor Supply reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.81 for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 27, 2026), missing analyst expectations. Net sales of $4.54 billion also fell short of consensus estimates. A core driver of this underperformance was a 1.5% decrease in comparable store sales, contrasting with an expected increase of 1.6%. This led management to significantly lower its fiscal year 2026 outlook, cutting net sales growth guidance to 2.5%-3.5% (from 4%-6%) and comparable store sales to a 1% decline to flat (from 1%-3% growth). The company also withdrew its long-term financial framework, signaling increased caution.
2. Petsense Restructuring and Associated Financial Charges.
Tractor Supply announced plans to close approximately 75 underperforming Petsense stores following a disciplined review of the business segment. This strategic decision resulted in significant one-time charges in fiscal Q2 2026, including a $5.9 million inventory write-down related to the planned closures and $65.8 million in Petsense impairment and restructuring charges. Additionally, the company incurred $9.5 million in acquisition costs associated with VIP Petcare, further impacting profitability during the quarter.
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Tractor Supply (TSCO) stock has lost about 30% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing Fiscal Q2 2026 Performance and Reduced Full-Year Outlook.
Tractor Supply reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.81 for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended June 27, 2026), missing analyst expectations. Net sales of $4.54 billion also fell short of consensus estimates. A core driver of this underperformance was a 1.5% decrease in comparable store sales, contrasting with an expected increase of 1.6%. This led management to significantly lower its fiscal year 2026 outlook, cutting net sales growth guidance to 2.5%-3.5% (from 4%-6%) and comparable store sales to a 1% decline to flat (from 1%-3% growth). The company also withdrew its long-term financial framework, signaling increased caution.
2. Petsense Restructuring and Associated Financial Charges.
Tractor Supply announced plans to close approximately 75 underperforming Petsense stores following a disciplined review of the business segment. This strategic decision resulted in significant one-time charges in fiscal Q2 2026, including a $5.9 million inventory write-down related to the planned closures and $65.8 million in Petsense impairment and restructuring charges. Additionally, the company incurred $9.5 million in acquisition costs associated with VIP Petcare, further impacting profitability during the quarter.
3. Macroeconomic Headwinds and Softened Consumer Discretionary Spending.
The company's performance was significantly impacted by external macroeconomic factors, particularly in May 2026, which saw "unusually adverse conditions". These included peak fuel prices during the spring selling season and persistent drought conditions in key Southeastern markets, leading to reduced demand. This environment prompted customers to pull back on discretionary purchases, especially in big-ticket items and spring seasonal categories, and to consolidate shopping trips, thereby hurting comparable store sales.
4. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions.
Several financial analysts downgraded Tractor Supply's stock and reduced their price targets during the specified period, reflecting a more pessimistic outlook on the company's future performance. For instance, Mizuho downgraded TSCO from Buy to Neutral and lowered its price target from $50 to $32 on July 9, 2026. Other firms, including Baird and Raymond James, also reduced their price targets in mid-July, contributing to negative market sentiment.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -31.0% change in TSCO stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -30.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 44.94 | 31.02 | -31.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 15,524 | 15,649 | 0.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.1% | 6.9% | -2.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.6 | 15.1 | -30.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 528 | 526 | 0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -31.0% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSCO | -31.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 8.1% |
| Sector (XLY) | 0.4% | 17.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -37.2% change in TSCO stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -36.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 49.39 | 31.02 | -37.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 15,399 | 15,649 | 1.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.2% | 6.9% | -3.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.7 | 15.1 | -36.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 530 | 526 | 0.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -37.2% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSCO | -37.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 13.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -8.2% | 20.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -40.0% change in TSCO stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -40.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 51.69 | 31.02 | -40.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,955 | 15,649 | 4.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.2% | 6.9% | -4.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.4 | 15.1 | -40.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 532 | 526 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -40.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSCO | -40.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.6% | 14.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.3% | 22.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -25.8% change in TSCO stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -28.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 41.82 | 31.02 | -25.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 14,480 | 15,649 | 8.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.5% | 6.9% | -7.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.2 | 15.1 | -28.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 550 | 526 | 4.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -25.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| TSCO | -25.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.6% | 31.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | 31.8% | 31.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| TSCO Return | 72% | -4% | -3% | 25% | -4% | -39% | 18% |
| Peers Return | 18% | -32% | -8% | 17% | -11% | -7% | -28% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| TSCO Win Rate | 83% | 42% | 67% | 67% | 50% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 33% | 45% | 47% | 42% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| TSCO Max Drawdown | -12% | -28% | -24% | -13% | -20% | -47% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -44% | -40% | -31% | -30% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: HD, LOW, CHWY, WOOF, CENT. See TSCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | TSCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -16.7% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 20.0% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 93 days | 79 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.3% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -12.2% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.9% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 245 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -27.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 258 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 25 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Tractor Supply's stock fell -16.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.0% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | TSCO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -27.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 36.9% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 258 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.9% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 39 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -22.7% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 29.4% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 159 days | 6 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.2% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -25.5% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 15 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Tractor Supply's stock fell -16.7% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 20.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Tractor Supply (TSCO)
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) operates as a leading rural lifestyle retailer across the United States. The company manages a vast network of physical stores under the Tractor Supply Company, Del's Feed & Farm Supply, and Petsense banners, supported by robust e-commerce operations through TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com. Its core mission is to cater to the unique needs of individuals who live and embrace a rural or farm-focused lifestyle.
The company offers a comprehensive range of merchandise across various categories. This includes essential products for the health, care, growth, and containment of equine, livestock, pets, and small animals. Customers can also find hardware, truck, towing, and tool products, along with seasonal items such as heating supplies, lawn and garden equipment, and power tools. Additionally, Tractor Supply provides work and recreational clothing, footwear, and maintenance products specifically designed for agricultural and rural applications, often featuring its own private label brands.
Tractor Supply primarily serves recreational farmers, ranchers, and other consumers living a rural lifestyle who seek specialized products not typically found in conventional retail stores. With over 2,000 Tractor Supply stores across 49 states and nearly 200 Petsense stores in 23 states as of late 2021, the company has established a significant and widespread presence, positioning itself as a key supplier for its target demographic.
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Think of it as **Home Depot for rural homeowners and hobby farmers**.
Alternatively, it's like **PetSmart combined with a hardware store, all designed for country living**.
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- Animal Care Products: Merchandise for the health, care, growth, and containment of equine, livestock, pets, and small animals.
- Hardware & Tools: Products including hardware, truck, towing, and various tools.
- Seasonal & Outdoor Living: Items such as heating products, lawn and garden supplies, power equipment, gifts, and toys.
- Apparel & Footwear: Work and recreational clothing and footwear.
- Agricultural & Rural Maintenance: Products for the maintenance of agricultural and rural properties.
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Tractor Supply (TSCO) primarily sells its products to individuals rather than other companies. Based on the company description, its major customer categories include:
- Recreational Farmers: Individuals who engage in farming activities on a smaller scale, often for personal enjoyment, hobby, or supplemental income, rather than large-scale commercial operations.
- Ranchers: Individuals involved in raising livestock, such as horses, cattle, and other animals, for personal use, hobby, or small-scale operations.
- Rural Lifestyle Homeowners and Pet Owners: Individuals who live a rural lifestyle and require products for their homes, properties, vehicles, and pets. This broad category includes customers seeking items for general rural maintenance, outdoor activities, animal care, and various seasonal needs.
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Hal Lawton, President and CEO
Hal Lawton has served as President and CEO of Tractor Supply Company since January 2020. Prior to this, he was President of Macy's from September 2017 to December 2019. From August 2015 to September 2017, he served as Senior Vice President, eBay North America. Lawton also spent 10 years in various leadership roles at Home Depot, where he was Senior Vice President for merchandising and was responsible for elevating Home Depot's internet business. He began his career as an associate principal at McKinsey & Co.
Kurt Barton, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Kurt Barton has served as Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer of Tractor Supply Company since February 2019. He joined Tractor Supply Company in August 1999, holding various leadership roles in accounting and internal audit before becoming Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer in March 2017. Before joining Tractor Supply, Barton, a Certified Public Accountant, began his career in public accounting in 1993, spending six years at Ernst & Young, LLP.
John P. Ordus, Executive Vice President, Chief Stores Officer
John P. Ordus has served as Executive Vice President, Chief Stores Officer of Tractor Supply Company since February 2020. In this role, he oversees store operations, customer solutions, loss prevention, store administration, real estate, and construction. With over two decades of experience in Farm and Ranch retail, Ordus joined Tractor Supply as a Store Manager in 2002 and held various leadership roles including District Manager, Regional Director, and Vice President of Store Operations for the Southwest region. Prior to Tractor Supply, he was a Store Manager at Quality Farm & Fleet from 1998 to 2002.
Robert D. Mills, Executive Vice President, Chief Technology, Digital and Corporate Strategy Officer
Robert D. Mills has served as Executive Vice President, Chief Technology, Digital and Corporate Strategy Officer of Tractor Supply Company since August 2018, previously serving as Senior Vice President and Chief Information Officer from February 2014. His responsibilities include leading teams building technology platforms, overseeing e-commerce, and coordinating the company's long-term strategy. Prior to Tractor Supply, Mills was the Chief Information Officer for Ulta Beauty (2011-2014) and Vice President, Chief Information Officer for the online business unit at Sears Holdings Corporation (2005-2011). He also held roles at Allstate Insurance, Rockwell International Telecommunications Division, and Household Finance Corporation.
Seth Estep, Executive Vice President, Chief Merchandising Officer
Seth Estep has served as Executive Vice President, Chief Merchandising Officer at Tractor Supply Company since February 2020. In this role, he is responsible for the company's merchandising strategy, including pricing, product development, private brands, global sourcing, visual presentation, and space planning. Estep first joined Tractor Supply in 2005 in marketing, and after a period as an Equity Research Analyst at BB&T Capital Markets, he rejoined in 2008 and held various leadership roles in merchandising with increasing responsibilities. He also oversaw the management of Petsense by Tractor Supply from 2020 to 2021.
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The key risks to Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) primarily revolve around the sensitivity of consumer spending to economic conditions, intense competition, and ongoing supply chain and cost pressures, including tariffs.
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Economic Sensitivity and Consumer Spending Fluctuations: Tractor Supply's performance is significantly influenced by the economic health of its core rural customer base, including recreational farmers and ranchers. Economic downturns, high inflation, or a general "cost of living challenge" can lead to reduced discretionary spending on many of the company's product categories, such as seasonal items, clothing, gifts, and even certain agricultural maintenance products. Recent results have shown a slowdown in comparable store sales, indicating a more cautious consumer outlook amidst macroeconomic weakness.
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Intense Competition and Market Share Pressure: Operating in a competitive retail market, Tractor Supply faces challenges from both specialized retailers and large general merchandise stores. The narrowing competitive gap in comparable sales with other farm and ranch players could put pressure on TSCO's market share and profitability. This competitive landscape necessitates continuous adaptation and investment to maintain its market position and pricing power.
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Supply Chain Volatility and Cost Pressures (including Tariffs): Tractor Supply's broad product assortment makes it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions, increased transportation costs, and rising operating expenses. A significant external factor is the exposure to tariffs on imported merchandise, which has been identified as a "headwind" that can lead to increased costs for goods and ultimately squeeze profit margins if these costs cannot be fully passed on to consumers. Additionally, rising Selling, General, and Administrative (SG&A) expenses and increased labor costs further contribute to margin pressure.
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Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) operates within several substantial addressable markets in the United States, catering to recreational farmers, ranchers, and rural homeowners. Here are the estimated market sizes for their main product and service categories in the U.S.:
- Pet, Equine, Livestock, and Small Animal Products: The U.S. pet care market is valued at approximately USD 152 billion in 2024. Another estimate indicates the U.S. pet care and services market was USD 62.1 billion in 2025, projected to reach USD 91.74 billion by 2031. The U.S. equine healthcare market was valued at USD 907.1 million in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 3,629.7 million by 2033. The equine supplement products market in the U.S. was valued at USD 91.43 million in 2025. The U.S. livestock and meat market was valued at USD 335.65 billion in 2024. The U.S. animal feed market was approximately US$83.6 billion in 2024.
- Hardware, Truck, Towing, and Tool Products: The USA hardware stores retail market size is estimated at USD 724.72 billion in 2026, with projections to reach USD 799.71 billion by 2031. Other sources indicate the USA Hardware Stores market was valued at USD 56 billion based on a five-year historical analysis and USD 44.3 billion in 2024.
- Seasonal Products (Lawn & Garden Items, Power Equipment): The U.S. lawn and garden products market is expected to grow to USD 83 billion in 2025. The U.S. outdoor power equipment market was valued at USD 21.08 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to grow to USD 36.77 billion by 2034. Another estimate places the U.S. outdoor power equipment market at USD 60,141.8 million in 2024. The U.S. lawn and garden consumables market was evaluated at USD 6.97 billion in 2024 and is projected to be worth around USD 12.75 billion by 2034.
- Work/Recreational Clothing and Footwear: The U.S. workwear market generated a revenue of USD 3,482.1 million in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 4,973.5 million by 2033. Another source states the U.S. workwear market size was estimated at USD 3.50 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 5.17 billion by 2035.
- Maintenance Products for Agricultural and Rural Use: The U.S. agricultural equipment market was valued at USD 39.4 billion in 2024 and is expected to increase to USD 57.1 billion by 2032. The agricultural machinery maintenance services market in the U.S. generated approximately USD 12.1 billion in revenue in 2024. The farm supplies wholesaling industry in the U.S. had a revenue of $225.9 billion in 2025.
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Share Repurchases
- Tractor Supply repurchased approximately $360.8 million of its common stock in fiscal year 2025.
- The company's Board of Directors authorized a $1 billion increase to its existing share repurchase program in February 2025, bringing the total authorized to date under the program to $7.5 billion.
- For fiscal year 2026, Tractor Supply expects to repurchase shares between $375 million and $450 million.
Share Issuance
- Tractor Supply completed a 5-for-1 forward stock split in December 2024, which increased the number of shares in circulation and lowered the per-share price.
- Net proceeds from the issuance of common stock were $23.563 million in fiscal year 2025 and $39.357 million in fiscal year 2024.
- Shares outstanding declined by 1.38% in 2025 to 0.532 billion from 0.54 billion in 2024, and by 1.65% in 2024 from 0.549 billion in 2023.
Outbound Investments
- In 2024, Tractor Supply acquired Allivet, a pet pharmacy platform, which is expected to add over $100 million in net sales in 2025 and expand the total addressable market by $15 billion in the pet wellness sector.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures totaled $784 million in fiscal year 2025, representing 5.3% of sales.
- For fiscal year 2026, the company forecasts capital expenditures, net of sale-leaseback proceeds, to be in the range of $675 million to $725 million.
- Primary focus areas for capital expenditures include opening new Tractor Supply and Petsense stores (approximately 99 Tractor Supply stores and 5 Petsense stores in fiscal 2025, with plans for approximately 100 new Tractor Supply stores in fiscal 2026), Project Fusion remodels, garden center transformations, completing its 11th distribution center, and investing in store and digital technology.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 37.38 |
| Mkt Cap | 12.5 |
| Rev LTM | 14,246 |
| Op Inc LTM | 879 |
| FCF LTM | 569 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 548 |
| CFO LTM | 1,112 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,033 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 13.2% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 6.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livestock, Equine & Agriculture | 4,191 | 3,870 | 3,930 | 3,977 | 5,984 |
| Companion Animal | 3,726 | 3,572 | 3,639 | 3,267 | |
| Seasonal & Recreation | 3,726 | 3,572 | 3,202 | 3,125 | 2,674 |
| Truck, Tool & Hardware | 2,329 | 2,381 | 2,329 | 2,273 | 2,674 |
| Clothing, Gift & Décor | 1,552 | 1,488 | 1,456 | 1,563 | 1,018 |
| Agriculture | 382 | ||||
| Total | 15,524 | 14,883 | 14,556 | 14,205 | 12,731 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $31.02 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 16.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 02/18/1994 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -49.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $30.53 | $44.51 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 1.6% | -30.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 35.6% | 31.2% |
| Downside Capture | 26.04 | 79.89 |
| Upside Capture | -53.90 | -9.90 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -7.9% | 13.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.46 | 0.42 | 0.61 |
| Up Beta | 0.26 | 0.60 | 0.93 | 0.91 | 0.84 | 0.78 |
| Down Beta | -0.87 | -0.16 | -0.38 | 0.17 | -0.00 | 0.42 |
| Up Capture | 30% | -39% | -36% | -13% | 5% | 17% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 20 | 26 | 53 | 122 | 383 |
| Down Capture | 25% | 21% | 145% | 101% | 86% | 89% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 37 | 72 | 130 | 367 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TSCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSCO | -47.0% | 31.1% | -2.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | -2.9% | 19.3% | -0.27 | 21.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 12.7% | 1.00 | 14.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.2% | 28.1% | 0.61 | 9.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 34.7% | 19.1% | 1.42 | -18.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.8% | 14.1% | 0.69 | 30.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -45.4% | 42.9% | -1.29 | 6.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TSCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSCO | -2.2% | 29.0% | -0.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.0% | 24.0% | 0.17 | 43.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 43.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.0% | 18.4% | 0.75 | 5.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.6% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 5.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.0% | 18.9% | 0.06 | 40.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.7% | 53.4% | 0.47 | 15.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with TSCO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSCO | 7.0% | 29.5% | 0.28 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 11.5% | 22.1% | 0.48 | 46.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 45.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 4.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.2% | 17.9% | 0.32 | 12.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 35.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.3% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 10.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/23/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/21/2026 | -11.7% | -20.4% | -30.5% |
| 1/29/2026 | -7.6% | 0.3% | -5.6% |
| 10/23/2025 | 2.8% | -1.1% | -4.0% |
| 7/24/2025 | -0.5% | -3.0% | 2.3% |
| 4/24/2025 | -3.4% | -0.2% | -2.1% |
| 1/30/2025 | -5.0% | -6.2% | -2.8% |
| 10/24/2024 | -6.1% | -8.3% | -6.3% |
| 7/25/2024 | -1.9% | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -4.8% | -4.0% |
| Max Positive | 6.0% | 10.0% | 13.3% |
| Max Negative | -11.7% | -20.4% | -30.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/21/2026 | -11.7% | -20.4% | -30.5% |
| 1/29/2026 | -7.6% | 0.3% | -5.6% |
| 10/23/2025 | 2.8% | -1.1% | -4.0% |
| 7/24/2025 | -0.5% | -3.0% | 2.3% |
| 4/24/2025 | -3.4% | -0.2% | -2.1% |
| 1/30/2025 | -5.0% | -6.2% | -2.8% |
| 10/24/2024 | -6.1% | -8.3% | -6.3% |
| 7/25/2024 | -1.9% | 0.3% | 1.1% |
| 4/25/2024 | 2.8% | 5.1% | 9.7% |
| 2/1/2024 | 4.6% | 3.9% | 12.9% |
| 10/26/2023 | -4.7% | -3.8% | 0.6% |
| 7/27/2023 | 4.2% | 5.4% | -1.3% |
| 4/27/2023 | -1.7% | 0.0% | -12.1% |
| 1/26/2023 | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% |
| 10/20/2022 | -3.5% | 10.0% | 9.5% |
| 7/21/2022 | -4.3% | -9.8% | -1.0% |
| 1/27/2022 | 1.0% | 6.6% | -2.7% |
| 10/21/2021 | 4.0% | 2.3% | 13.3% |
| 7/19/2021 | -4.3% | -0.7% | 4.1% |
| 4/22/2021 | 4.4% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| 1/28/2021 | -2.8% | -5.7% | 3.7% |
| 10/22/2020 | -8.1% | -11.1% | -12.0% |
| 7/23/2020 | 0.0% | -0.3% | 4.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 14 | 12 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -4.8% | -4.0% |
| Max Positive | 6.0% | 10.0% | 13.3% |
| Max Negative | -11.7% | -20.4% | -30.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/23/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/09/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/10/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/17/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/18/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/22/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/20/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/07/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/08/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/24/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Sales Growth | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | -2.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Comparable Store Sales | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0 | ||||
| 2026 Operating Margin Rate | 8.0% | 8.15% | 8.3% | -1.3% | Lowered | Guidance: 9.45% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Operating Margin Rate | 8.5% | 8.65% | 8.8% | ||||
| 2026 Net Income | 930.00 Mil | 960.00 Mil | 990.00 Mil | -15.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.14 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | 990.00 Mil | 1.02 Bil | 1.05 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Earnings per Diluted Share | 1.78 | 1.83 | 1.88 | -16.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.18 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Earnings per Diluted Share | 1.9 | 1.95 | 2 | ||||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Sales Growth | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Comparable Store Sales Growth | 1.0% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Operating Margin Rate | 9.3% | 9.45% | 9.6% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 9.45% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Income | 1.11 Bil | 1.14 Bil | 1.17 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.14 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Earnings per Diluted Share | 2.13 | 2.18 | 2.23 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.18 for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/29/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net Sales Growth | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | -0.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 5.1% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Comparable Store Sales | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.1% | Raised | Guidance: 0.02 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Operating Margin Rate | 9.3% | 9.45% | 9.6% | -0.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 9.6% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Net Income | 1.11 Bil | 1.14 Bil | 1.17 Bil | 2.2% | Raised | Guidance: 1.11 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Earnings per Diluted Share | 2.13 | 2.18 | 2.23 | 4.1% | Raised | Guidance: 2.1 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital Expenditures, Net of Sale Leaseback Proceeds | 675.00 Mil | 700.00 Mil | 725.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 375.00 Mil | 412.50 Mil | 450.00 Mil | ||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/23/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Comparable Store Sales | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.05 | ||||
| 2025 Net Sales | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 | -15.0% | -0.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.06 for 2025 |
| 2025 Comparable Store Sales | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | -5.0% | -0.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 0.02 for 2025 |
| 2025 Operating Margin Rate | 9.5% | 9.6% | 9.7% | -0.1% | Lowered | Guidance: 9.7% for 2025 | |
| 2025 Net Income | 1.09 Bil | 1.11 Bil | 1.14 Bil | -0.4% | Lowered | Guidance: 1.12 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Earnings per Diluted Share | 2.06 | 2.1 | 2.13 | 0.2% | Raised | Guidance: 2.09 for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 7/6/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yankee, Colin | EVP Chief Supply Chain Officer | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 55.35 | 11,170 | 618,263 | 2,519,269 | Form |
| 2 | Mills, Robert D | EVP Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 54.12 | 62,950 | 3,406,854 | 6,647,796 | Form |
| 3 | Estep, Jonathan S | EVP Chief Merchandise Officer | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 54.03 | 59,745 | 3,228,022 | 4,372,695 | Form |
| 4 | Barton, Kurt D | EVP Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 53.81 | 1,884 | 101,378 | 2,828,341 | Form |
| 5 | Barton, Kurt D | EVP Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 53.94 | 1,929 | 104,050 | 2,413,037 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yankee, Colin | EVP Chief Supply Chain Officer | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 55.35 | 11,170 | 618,263 | 2,519,269 | Form |
| 2 | Mills, Robert D | EVP Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 54.12 | 62,950 | 3,406,854 | 6,647,796 | Form |
| 3 | Estep, Jonathan S | EVP Chief Merchandise Officer | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 54.03 | 59,745 | 3,228,022 | 4,372,695 | Form |
| 4 | Barton, Kurt D | EVP Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2122026 | 53.81 | 1,884 | 101,378 | 2,828,341 | Form |
| 5 | Barton, Kurt D | EVP Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2092026 | 53.94 | 1,929 | 104,050 | 2,413,037 | Form |
| 6 | Lawton, Iii Harry A | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 2052026 | 53.16 | 84,670 | 4,501,057 | 32,259,706 | Form |
| 7 | Kersey, Melissa | EVP Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 8152025 | 59.78 | 6,313 | 377,426 | 2,036,878 | Form |
| 8 | Weikel, Mark J | Direct | Sell | 8112025 | 59.92 | 8,000 | 479,360 | 2,545,282 | Form | |
| 9 | Yankee, Colin | EVP Chief Supply Chain Officer | Direct | Sell | 7302025 | 58.40 | 6,680 | 390,121 | 2,344,365 | Form |
| 10 | Ellison, Noni L | SVP General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 7282025 | 63.96 | 5,200 | 332,592 | 1,831,729 | Form |
| 11 | Barton, Kurt D | EVP Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 7282025 | 63.96 | 90,000 | 5,756,400 | 3,051,870 | Form |
| 12 | Jackson, Denise L | Direct | Sell | 7242025 | 58.50 | 1,165 | 68,152 | 1,820,696 | Form | |
| 13 | Jackson, Denise L | Direct | Sell | 7142025 | 57.75 | 2,000 | 115,500 | 1,864,632 | Form | |
| 14 | Jackson, Denise L | Direct | Sell | 7112025 | 57.00 | 1,000 | 57,000 | 1,954,416 | Form | |
| 15 | Jackson, Denise L | Direct | Sell | 7092025 | 55.93 | 4,630 | 258,965 | 1,973,727 | Form | |
| 16 | Estep, Jonathan S | EVP Chief Merchandise Officer | Direct | Sell | 7092025 | 56.00 | 35,825 | 2,006,200 | 4,177,893 | Form |
| 17 | Jackson, Denise L | Direct | Sell | 7072025 | 55.00 | 1,550 | 85,250 | 2,195,490 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 25, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager |
|---|
Tractor Supply — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Other Specialty Retail Resources |
| Specialty Retailer |
| Retail Gazette |
| Inside Retail |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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