Tearsheet

NRG Energy (NRG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $168.79 | Market Cap: $32.6 Bil
Sector: Utilities | Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders

NRG Energy (NRG)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $168.79
Market Cap: $32.6 Bil
Sector: Utilities
Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NRG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

The requested time period of August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, is in the future. As such, information regarding specific stock movements and their causes for this period is not yet available. However, based on recent historical data and analyst expectations for NRG Energy (NRG) leading up to the end of 2025 and beyond, here are some key points that could influence stock performance. **1. Strong Financial Performance in Previous Periods:** NRG Energy reported strong financial results for the full year 2023, with Adjusted EBITDA reaching $3.3 billion and Free Cash Flow Before Growth (FCFbG) at $1.9 billion. The company also reported a net income of $482 million for the fourth quarter of 2023. This positive momentum in financial performance sets a favorable backdrop for future investor confidence.

**2. Shareholder Returns and Debt Reduction Initiatives:** In 2023, NRG returned approximately $1.5 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and common dividends, and paid down $1.52 billion of debt. The company exceeded its original share repurchase and debt reduction targets. Additionally, NRG plans to increase its dividend per share by 7-9% annually and reduce debt by up to $2.55 billion by year-end 2025. Such capital allocation strategies can positively influence stock valuation.

**3. Strategic Growth and Cost Savings Programs:** NRG has outlined a $550 million plan for accretive and recurring FCFbG through 2025, comprising $300 million in planned growth leveraging its Energy and Smart Home platforms and $250 million in cost efficiency initiatives. As of December 31, 2023, the company achieved approximately $100 million of its growth plan and $40 million of its cost initiatives. These programs aim to enhance operating efficiency and create new revenue streams.

**4. Positive Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets:** Analysts have a generally positive outlook on NRG Energy, with a consensus rating of "Strong Buy" based on recent evaluations. The average 12-month price target from analysts suggests a potential upside from current levels, with a high forecast of $308.00. This strong analyst confidence can contribute to positive stock movement.

**5. Strategic Acquisitions and Partnerships:** In May 2025, NRG Energy agreed to acquire a portfolio of natural gas assets from LS Power Equity Advisors in a $12 billion deal, which is expected to double its generation capacity by adding 18 natural gas facilities across nine states. This significant acquisition, expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, could be seen as a strategic move to enhance NRG's market position and generation capabilities. The company also announced partnerships for virtual power plant (VPP) opportunities and signed Letters of Intent for initial retail supply with potential for significant expansion.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NRG Return-2%19%-23%69%79%84%395%
Peers Return6%15%-4%7%67%37%183%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NRG Win Rate58%50%33%75%67%80% 
Peers Win Rate38%37%27%50%52%70% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NRG Max Drawdown-44%-13%-25%-2%-2%-7% 
Peers Max Drawdown-29%-3%-15%-15%-13%-18% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NRG, TLN, AES, TAC, DGXX. See NRG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNRGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven299 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-45.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven82.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven300 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-23.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven30.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven586 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-67.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven209.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven5513 days1480 days

Compare to NRG, TLN, AES, TAC, DGXX


In The Past

NRG Energy's stock fell -33.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/25/2022. A -33.8% loss requires a 51.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About NRG Energy (NRG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NRG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-0.7%-0.7%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.3%9.3%-3.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.7%-0.7%-0.7%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%0.0%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
9.3%9.3%-3.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NRG Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NRGTLNAESTACDGXXMedian
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Growth & Margins

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Valuation

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Returns

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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
East12,54716,76313,0252,2582,319
Texas10,47610,05710,2956,3097,069
West/Services/Other4,2814,7063,659530440
Vivint Smart Home1,549    
Corporate00000
Eliminations-301710-4-7
Total28,82331,54326,9899,0939,821


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Texas3,0921,2621,2868191,059
Vivint Smart Home46    
Eliminations00000
Corporate-169-12042-86-75
West/Services/Other-859558112105
East-1,7263181,901362301
Total3842,0183,3411,1051,290


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Texas3,0941,2651,290800972
Vivint Smart Home31    
Eliminations00000
Corporate-656-850-1,098-6793,175
West/Services/Other-94448088374
East-1,7273261,907352287
Total-2021,2212,1875104,438


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Corporate20,35735,78019,05111,1528,342
East13,71219,52613,6451,7902,160
Texas8,23611,47512,2717,6415,711
Vivint Smart Home6,619    
West/Services/Other3,6128,1394,6731,6791,190
Eliminations-26,498-45,774-26,458-7,360-4,872
Total26,03829,14623,18214,90212,531


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,617,193
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120251.9%
Average Daily Volume2,340,183
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.97
Basic Shares Quantity193,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.4%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021