NRG Energy (NRG)
Market Price (5/4/2026): $153.65 | Market Cap: $29.5 BilSector: Utilities | Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
NRG Energy (NRG)
Market Price (5/4/2026): $153.65Market Cap: $29.5 BilSector: UtilitiesIndustry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.6 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 34x Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6% Key risksNRG key risks include [1] a substantial debt load threatening its financial stability, Show more. |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.6 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 34x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.6% |
| Key risksNRG key risks include [1] a substantial debt load threatening its financial stability, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. Strategic Acquisition and Positive 2026 Guidance.
NRG Energy completed its $12 billion acquisition of assets from LS Power on January 30, 2026, which subsequently led to updated 2026 financial guidance. On February 2, 2026, the company issued guidance for Adjusted Net Income between $1.685 billion and $2.115 billion, and Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) ranging from $7.90 to $9.90. This acquisition, expected to enhance cash flow by up to $1.0 billion through cost savings and revenue synergies, positioned NRG to capitalize on increasing electricity demand, particularly from data centers, and strengthened its operational footprint with gas-fired generation now comprising 75% of its portfolio.
2. Mixed Q4 2025 Earnings and Balanced Analyst Sentiment.
On February 24, 2026, NRG reported mixed financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025. While the company exceeded revenue expectations with $7.75 billion, marking a 13.7% year-over-year increase, it missed consensus EPS estimates, reporting $1.04 per share against an anticipated $1.19. This mixed performance, combined with an average analyst price target around $197-$203 and a "Moderate Buy" consensus, likely created a balanced outlook among investors, preventing a significant directional shift in the stock price.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.1% change in NRG stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 67.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 5032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 151.69 | 153.37 | 1.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 29,779 | 30,713 | 3.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.8% | 2.8% | -41.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.3 | 34.1 | 67.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 193 | 192 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.1% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 5/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NRG | 1.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.6% | 45.0% |
| Sector (XLU) | 8.4% | 63.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -10.0% change in NRG stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/3/2026 was primarily driven by a -46.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 5032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 170.36 | 153.37 | -10.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 29,367 | 30,713 | 4.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.8% | 2.8% | 58.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 64.0 | 34.1 | -46.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 196 | 192 | 2.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -10.0% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 5/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NRG | -10.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 5.5% | 44.6% |
| Sector (XLU) | 6.0% | 62.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 42.1% change in NRG stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 75.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302025 | 5032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 107.91 | 153.37 | 42.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 28,130 | 30,713 | 9.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.0% | 2.8% | -29.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.5 | 34.1 | 75.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 203 | 192 | 5.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 42.1% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2025 to 5/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NRG | 42.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 30.4% | 46.1% |
| Sector (XLU) | 21.4% | 43.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 377.5% change in NRG stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/3/2026 was primarily driven by a 463.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302023 | 5032026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 32.12 | 153.37 | 377.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 31,543 | 30,713 | -2.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.9% | 2.8% | -27.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 6.1 | 34.1 | 463.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 230 | 192 | 19.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 377.5% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2023 to 5/3/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NRG | 377.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 78.7% | 49.7% |
| Sector (XLU) | 48.0% | 42.5% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NRG Return | 19% | -23% | 69% | 79% | 79% | -2% | 381% |
| Peers Return | 24% | 16% | 12% | 81% | 28% | 7% | 297% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 5% | 92% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NRG Win Rate | 50% | 33% | 75% | 67% | 67% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 65% | 55% | 63% | 60% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NRG Max Drawdown | -13% | -25% | -2% | -2% | -7% | -11% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -11% | -14% | -21% | -5% | -13% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: VST, EXC, CEG, NEE, AEP. See NRG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/1/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NRG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -12.5% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.3% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 4 days | 18 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -13.3% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -15.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 18.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 28 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -44.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 296 days | 140 days |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | ||
| % Loss | -13.1% | -3.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 15.1% | 3.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 6 days | 6 days |
In The Past
NRG Energy's stock fell -25.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | NRG | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.6% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.4% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 27 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -44.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 296 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -57.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 133.9% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 534 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -69.8% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 231.2% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 660 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 504 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -64.7% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 183.5% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 3685 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
NRG Energy's stock fell -25.6% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 34.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About NRG Energy (NRG)
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ExxonMobil for electricity.
A diversified utility like Duke Energy, but with a large direct-to-consumer electricity sales business under multiple brands.
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- Electricity Generation and Sales: Produces and sells electricity from a diverse portfolio of generation assets to various residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale customers.
- Retail Energy Services: Delivers electricity, related products, and energy services directly to retail customers under multiple brands such as Reliant and Direct Energy.
- On-site Energy Solutions: Provides customized energy systems, including distributed generation, backup generation, solar, and battery storage solutions.
- Energy Management and Advisory Services: Offers services such as demand response, energy efficiency advice, and carbon management to optimize energy consumption and environmental impact.
- Commodities and Financial Trading: Trades electric power, natural gas, environmental products, and financial derivatives like forwards, futures, options, and swaps.
AI Analysis | Feedback
NRG Energy (NRG) sells electricity and related services to a diverse customer base, including a significant number of individual consumers. The company operates numerous retail electricity brands such as Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, Stream, and XOOM Energy, which directly serve individuals. Accordingly, its major customer categories include:
- Residential Customers: Individuals and households who consume electricity for their homes. NRG serves approximately 6 million residential customers across its service territories.
- Commercial Customers: Businesses of various sizes, from small enterprises to larger corporations, requiring electricity and energy solutions for their operations.
- Industrial Customers: Large industrial facilities and operations that have substantial electricity needs for manufacturing, processing, and other industrial activities.
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Lawrence S. Coben, Chief Executive Officer
Dr. Lawrence Coben has served as the Chief Executive Officer of NRG Energy since November 2023 and as Chairman of the Board since February 2017. He was also President of NRG from November 2023 to January 2026. Dr. Coben brings over 40 years of experience in the energy sector. He founded Tremisis Energy Corporation and was CEO of its two publicly traded affiliates. He was also a founder of Catalyst Energy Corporation, one of the first alternative energy companies in the United States. Dr. Coben was previously CEO of the NYSE-traded Bolivian Power Company. He has also served on the boards of SAESA, a Chilean utility, and Prisma Energy, and was an Advisory Partner of Morgan Stanley Infrastructure II, L.P. He is also the founder and Executive Director of the Escala Initiative, an NGO focused on empowering women entrepreneurs.
Robert Gaudette, President
Robert Gaudette was appointed President of NRG Energy effective January 7, 2026, and will assume the role of Chief Executive Officer on April 30, 2026. He manages NRG's B2B retail gas and power platform and oversees the company's market operations and power generation. Prior to joining NRG, Mr. Gaudette served as Chief Commercial Officer at GenOn Energy, leading all trading and marketing operations. Before GenOn, he was Vice President of Mirant's Mid-Atlantic business unit and held various other roles including Director of West Power and NYMEX Trading. He began his career at Mirant in 2001 as a Trading Analyst. Earlier in his career, he served four years as an Army combat engineer officer, including a deployment to Bosnia.
Bruce Chung, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Bruce Chung was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of NRG Energy, effective June 1, 2023. In this role, he leads the Accounting, Tax, Financial Planning and Analysis, Treasury, Investor Relations, and Risk functions, and also oversees Strategy, M&A, and Enterprise Innovation. Before rejoining NRG in 2016, Mr. Chung served as a Managing Director at Energy Impact Partners, a private equity firm focused on energy technology investments. He previously held numerous positions across various areas of NRG focused on new business development since joining in 2008 for his first stint. Prior to NRG, he served as a director in the investment banking division of Citigroup and its predecessor firms, providing capital markets advisory and M&A services to power and gas companies, including multiple assignments for NRG.
Brad Bentley, Executive Vice President, President of NRG Consumer
Brad Bentley leads NRG's Home Energy and Smart Home businesses. He is responsible for advancing smart home technologies and innovative energy solutions to millions of customers. Prior to joining NRG in July 2025, Mr. Bentley was Chief Operating Officer, Traveler Operation, at Expedia Group, Inc. Before Expedia, he served as CEO and President of Inspire Clean Energy, a clean energy technology company that was sold to Shell in 2021. He has also held senior leadership roles at WarnerMedia, AT&T, and DIRECTV.
Brian Curci, Executive Vice President and General Counsel
Brian Curci is Executive Vice President and General Counsel at NRG, where he oversees all Legal, Regulatory, Environmental, Compliance, and Government Affairs and Policy functions. He joined NRG in 2007, serving in various roles within the Legal department, including Senior Vice President and General Counsel, and Deputy General Counsel and Corporate Secretary. Before joining NRG, Mr. Curci was an Associate at Saul Ewing LLP, focusing on public company matters for organizations within and outside the energy industry.
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Key Risks for NRG Energy (NRG)
Exposure to Volatile Commodity Markets: As an integrated power company, NRG Energy generates electricity using a mix of fuels including natural gas, coal, and oil, and also trades in electric power, natural gas, and related commodities. Fluctuations in the prices of these underlying commodities directly impact the company's fuel costs for generation and its revenue from selling power and engaging in trading activities, leading to significant earnings volatility.
Regulatory and Environmental Policy Changes, including Energy Transition: NRG Energy operates a diverse power generation portfolio that includes fossil fuel-based assets. This exposes the company to substantial risks from evolving environmental regulations (e.g., carbon emissions standards, air and water quality rules) and broader energy policies. The global trend towards decarbonization and the accelerating transition to cleaner energy sources could necessitate significant capital investments in new technologies, lead to the accelerated retirement or impairment of existing fossil fuel assets, and impact the company's long-term competitiveness.
Impacts of Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change: Operating a large fleet of power generation assets and serving a vast customer base across different regions, NRG Energy is highly susceptible to operational disruptions and financial repercussions from severe weather events. Events such as extreme heat (increasing demand and stressing infrastructure), droughts (affecting water-cooled plants), winter storms (causing supply disruptions and demand spikes), and hurricanes (damaging infrastructure) can lead to service interruptions, increased operational costs, and potential financial penalties. The increasing frequency and intensity of such events due to climate change pose an escalating risk to the company's reliability and profitability.
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The rapid and widespread adoption of highly efficient and affordable distributed energy resources (DERs), such as residential and commercial rooftop solar photovoltaic systems paired with advanced battery storage. This development allows customers to generate and store a significant portion, or even all, of their electricity needs independently, thereby reducing their reliance on traditional grid infrastructure and conventional electricity providers like NRG. This trend threatens to erode NRG's customer base for grid-supplied electricity and reduce overall demand for its generated power, impacting its retail sales and the utilization of its conventional generation assets.
Accelerating global and national decarbonization efforts and stricter environmental regulations, coupled with the rapidly declining costs and increasing efficiency of utility-scale renewable energy (solar and wind) and grid-scale battery storage, could rapidly devalue NRG's significant fossil fuel generation assets (natural gas, coal, oil). This acceleration could lead to stranded assets, necessitate costly early retirements, or require massive capital investments for conversion or replacement, making these assets economically uncompetitive faster than currently anticipated.
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NRG Energy, Inc. operates in various segments of the energy market in the United States.
For its energy services offerings, which include distributed generation, renewable products, backup generation, storage and distributed solar, demand response, energy efficiency, advisory services, carbon management, and on-site energy solutions, the addressable market in the U.S. is the Energy as a Service (EaaS) market. This market generated approximately USD 19.45 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 34.60 billion by 2030. Another estimate for the U.S. EaaS market shows it generated USD 23.61 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 43.79 billion by 2030. The North American Energy as a Service market was estimated at USD 42.7 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 101.2 billion by 2035.
For the company's main products of producing, selling, and delivering electricity (wholesale and retail electricity), specific addressable market sizes in U.S. dollar value for the entire U.S. market were not explicitly identified in the provided information. Therefore, the market size for these products is null.
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```htmlNRG Energy (symbol: NRG) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives and market opportunities:
- Growth in Retail Customer Base and Smart Home Services: The company anticipates continued expansion within its retail customer base and the Smart Home business, driven by new customer additions and high retention rates. The Smart Home segment, which includes Vivint Smart Home services, reported strong performance in Q4 2025.
- Expansion of Generation Capacity and Market Position through Acquisitions: The successful integration of strategic acquisitions, notably the LS Power portfolio in early 2026, significantly doubled NRG's generation capacity to approximately 25 gigawatts, primarily natural gas. This expansion is expected to enhance NRG's competitive edge in key markets and boost its long-term Adjusted EPS growth targets.
- Meeting Increased Power Demand from Data Centers: NRG is actively capitalizing on the surging power demand from data centers and hyperscalers through its "Bring Your Own Power" strategy. The company has already secured significant long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) for data centers and obtained Texas Energy Fund loans for new capacity, with plans to sign at least 1 gigawatt-plus of long-term data center power contracts.
- Development and Scaling of Virtual Power Plant (VPP) Platforms: NRG is investing in and expanding its Virtual Power Plant initiatives, including a 6 gigawatt Commercial and Industrial (C&I) VPP platform acquired with LS Power. The company aims to reach 1 gigawatt of VPP capacity by 2035, supported by strategic partnerships.
- Commercial Optimization and Asset Integration in Key Regions: Ongoing commercial optimization efforts within its operating segments, particularly the Texas segment, combined with the successful and better-than-expected integration of newly acquired assets, are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth. This leverages NRG's expanded fleet and market presence for improved operational and financial performance.
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Share Repurchases
- In 2025, NRG Energy plans to return $1.3 billion through share repurchases.
- As of October 2024, the Board of Directors authorized an additional $1.0 billion for share repurchases, increasing the total authorization to $3.7 billion through 2025.
- The company returned $925 million in share repurchases in 2024, exceeding its original target by $100 million. It also executed $1.15 billion in share repurchases in 2023.
Share Issuance
- The acquisition of a power portfolio from LS Power in 2025 included 24.25 million shares of NRG common stock as part of the purchase price.
- In March 2026, affiliates of LS Power launched an underwritten public offering of 12,300,000 shares of NRG common stock that they received as part of the acquisition consideration, with NRG not receiving any proceeds from this sale.
Outbound Investments
- NRG Energy acquired a power portfolio from LS Power, which included 13 GW of natural gas-fired generation and a 6 GW C&I Virtual Power Plant platform, with the transaction closing on January 30, 2026, for a purchase price involving 24.25 million shares of NRG common stock, $6.4 billion in cash, and the assumption of $3.2 billion in debt.
- The company completed the acquisition of Vivint Smart Home in 2023, utilizing approximately $2.8 billion in cash, newly issued debt, preferred equity, and credit facilities.
- In 2025, NRG successfully acquired a 738 MW natural gas combined cycle peaking generation portfolio in Texas from Rockland Capital for $560 million.
Capital Expenditures
- Total cash capital expenditures and investments for the year ended December 31, 2024, were $712 million, including growth expenditures, integration, small book acquisitions, and other investments.
- The company is advancing three brownfield natural gas plants in Texas, totaling 1.5 GW, with $1.15 billion in low-interest financing from the Texas Energy Fund. One project, T.H. Wharton, is expected to commence commercial operations in June 2026.
- NRG Energy has identified $550 million in growth and cost initiatives through 2025, with $300 million allocated for planned growth, primarily leveraging its Energy and Smart Home platforms.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | SRE | Sempra | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | -2.1% | -2.1% | -4.9% |
| 12122025 | CTRI | Centuri | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 41.5% | 41.5% | -5.5% |
| 11212025 | PEG | Public Service Enterprise | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.1% | 2.1% | -4.0% |
| 12312022 | NRG | NRG Energy | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 20.2% | 69.4% | -2.5% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 145.14 |
| Mkt Cap | 62.9 |
| Rev LTM | 24,896 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,130 |
| FCF LTM | 1,026 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -560 |
| CFO LTM | 5,246 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,102 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 13.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -5.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 33.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.7% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -3.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 62.9 |
| P/S | 3.2 |
| P/Op Inc | 19.9 |
| P/EBIT | 18.1 |
| P/E | 29.4 |
| P/CFO | 14.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.9% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 3.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.3% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 28.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 184.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 4.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 112.3% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate | 15,543 | 20,357 | 35,780 | 19,051 | 11,152 |
| East | 8,021 | 13,712 | 19,526 | 13,645 | 1,790 |
| Texas | 6,925 | 8,236 | 11,475 | 12,271 | 7,641 |
| Vivint Smart Home | 6,624 | 6,619 | |||
| West/Other | 2,254 | 3,612 | 8,139 | 4,673 | 1,679 |
| Eliminations | -15,345 | -26,498 | -45,774 | -26,458 | -7,360 |
| Total | 24,022 | 26,038 | 29,146 | 23,182 | 14,902 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $153.37 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 29.4 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/02/2003 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -16.4% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $158.60 | $158.82 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -3.3% | -3.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 50.7% | 50.0% |
| Downside Capture | 1.25 | 1.02 |
| Upside Capture | 172.48 | 170.11 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 42.8% | 45.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.64 | 1.51 | 1.44 | 1.54 | 1.84 | 1.41 |
| Up Beta | 1.14 | 1.30 | 1.30 | 0.85 | 2.42 | 1.45 |
| Down Beta | 4.58 | 0.35 | 0.50 | 0.96 | 1.16 | 1.46 |
| Up Capture | 144% | 136% | 188% | 210% | 253% | 433% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 15 | 22 | 31 | 66 | 141 | 428 |
| Stock +ve Days | 14 | 23 | 35 | 66 | 132 | 415 |
| Down Capture | 491% | 231% | 167% | 183% | 148% | 104% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 4 | 18 | 30 | 56 | 108 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 20 | 29 | 59 | 120 | 336 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NRG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRG | 42.3% | 49.9% | 0.86 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 21.4% | 14.3% | 1.13 | 43.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 30.6% | 12.5% | 1.88 | 46.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 39.5% | 27.2% | 1.20 | 7.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 51.5% | 17.9% | 2.20 | -0.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.1% | 13.5% | 0.67 | 17.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -17.1% | 42.2% | -0.33 | 20.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NRG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRG | 36.6% | 39.4% | 0.90 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 10.4% | 17.2% | 0.45 | 44.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.8% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 48.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.5% | 17.9% | 0.94 | 10.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.3% | 19.1% | 0.61 | 15.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.5% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 34.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.7% | 56.2% | 0.35 | 18.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NRG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NRG | 29.5% | 39.1% | 0.79 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLU) | 10.5% | 19.2% | 0.47 | 44.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 49.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.6% | 15.9% | 0.71 | 8.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 17.7% | 0.46 | 22.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.7% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 42.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.7% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 14.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/24/2026 | 4.3% | -0.5% | -14.4% |
| 11/6/2025 | -1.8% | -2.5% | -5.2% |
| 5/12/2025 | 26.2% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| 2/26/2025 | 10.6% | -2.1% | -4.9% |
| 11/8/2024 | -0.3% | -4.9% | -0.3% |
| 8/8/2024 | 8.2% | 14.3% | 6.2% |
| 2/28/2024 | 1.2% | 11.0% | 23.3% |
| 11/2/2023 | 2.9% | 4.1% | 10.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 8 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.3% | 5.0% | 9.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.0% | -2.8% | -5.2% |
| Max Positive | 26.2% | 33.4% | 24.6% |
| Max Negative | -11.1% | -12.6% | -21.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/12/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/26/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/28/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/08/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/07/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/06/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/24/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted Net Income | 1.69 Bil | 1.90 Bil | 2.12 Bil | 24.2% | Higher New | Actual: 1.53 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 7.9 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 13.4% | Higher New | Actual: 7.85 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 5.33 Bil | 5.58 Bil | 5.83 Bil | 37.6% | Raised | Guidance: 4.05 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 FCFbG | 2.80 Bil | 3.05 Bil | 3.30 Bil | 45.2% | Raised | Guidance: 2.10 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 1.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Dividends | 400.00 Mil | ||||||
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Net Income | 1.47 Bil | 1.53 Bil | 1.59 Bil | 7.0% | Raised | Guidance: 1.43 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 EPS | 7.55 | 7.85 | 8.15 | 8.3% | Raised | Guidance: 7.25 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Operating Income | 3.88 Bil | 3.95 Bil | 4.03 Bil | 2.6% | Raised | Guidance: 3.85 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Free Cash Flow | 2.10 Bil | 2.17 Bil | 2.25 Bil | 3.6% | Raised | Guidance: 2.10 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Operating Income | 3.92 Bil | 4.05 Bil | 4.17 Bil | ||||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 1.98 Bil | 2.10 Bil | 2.23 Bil | ||||
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kinney, Virginia | Exec VP, Chief Admin Officer | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 156.65 | 5,000 | 783,250 | 8,693,292 | Form |
| 2 | Ls, Power Equity Advisors, Llc | See Footnotes | Sell | 3042026 | 164.00 | 16,129,269 | 2,645,200,116 | 790,599,884 | Form | |
| 3 | Nanus, David | See Footnotes | Sell | 3042026 | 164.00 | 16,129,269 | 2,645,200,116 | 790,599,884 | Form | |
| 4 | Gaudette, Robert J | Exec VP, NRG Business | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 158.76 | 45,000 | 7,144,200 | 10,147,939 | Form |
| 5 | Chung, Bruce | EVP & CFO | Direct | Sell | 1062026 | 158.79 | 7,617 | 1,209,503 | 14,534,049 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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