Tearsheet

NRG Energy (NRG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $149.61 | Market Cap: $28.9 Bil
Sector: Utilities | Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders

NRG Energy (NRG)


Market Price (12/18/2025): $149.61
Market Cap: $28.9 Bil
Sector: Utilities
Industry: Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.4%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.9%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 2.7 Bil
Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 63%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more.
Key risks
NRG key risks include [1] a substantial debt load threatening its financial stability, Show more.
0 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 5.4%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 2.7 Bil
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, Smart Grids & Grid Modernization, and Electrification of Everything. Themes include Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more.
3 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.9%
4 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 63%
5 Key risks
NRG key risks include [1] a substantial debt load threatening its financial stability, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NRG Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Raised 2025 Financial Guidance. On September 17, 2025, NRG Energy elevated its financial guidance for the full year, citing exceptional business performance across all segments and favorable weather conditions in the first quarter. This update included increased projections for Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS), Adjusted EBITDA, and Free Cash Flow before Growth.

2. Positive Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report. On November 6, 2025, NRG Energy reported its third-quarter results, which included reaffirming its 2025 financial guidance. This consistent performance and reaffirmed outlook likely contributed to investor confidence.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NRG Return-2%19%-23%69%79%80%383%
Peers Return12%81%31%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NRG Win Rate58%50%33%75%67%67% 
Peers Win Rate66%55%63%62% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NRG Max Drawdown-44%-13%-25%-2%-2%-7% 
Peers Max Drawdown-21%-5%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: VST, EXC, CEG, NEE, AEP. See NRG Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNRGS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-33.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven299 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-45.1%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven82.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven300 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-23.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven30.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven586 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-67.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven209.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven5,513 days1,480 days

Compare to NRG, TLN, AES, TAC, DGXX


In The Past

NRG Energy's stock fell -33.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 5/25/2022. A -33.8% loss requires a 51.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About NRG Energy (NRG)

Better Bets than NRG Energy (NRG)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NRG. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.7%6.7%-3.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PEG_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025PEGPublic Service EnterpriseMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.9%-0.9%-2.4%
PCG_9262025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09262025PCGPG&EDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-0.8%
AES_9052025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09052025AESAESDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
6.7%6.7%-3.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for NRG Energy

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NRGVSTEXCCEGNEEAEPMedian
NameNRG Ener.Vistra Exelon Constell.NextEra .American. 
Mkt Price149.48159.9744.22340.9780.29114.71132.09
Mkt Cap28.854.244.7106.7165.861.457.8
Rev LTM29,77917,19124,31724,84126,29821,25724,579
Op Inc LTM2,5982,1045,0603,0177,4045,3004,038
FCF LTM1,6991,645-1,595-2763,073-1,736684
FCF 3Y Avg1302,328-2,186-4,7682,421-1,932-901
CFO LTM2,7423,9916,4362,41611,9676,8585,214
CFO 3Y Avg8264,3495,337-2,25211,8475,8344,843

Growth & Margins

NRGVSTEXCCEGNEEAEPMedian
NameNRG Ener.Vistra Exelon Constell.NextEra .American. 
Rev Chg LTM5.9%5.7%6.1%3.6%0.2%8.4%5.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.9%9.5%8.9%3.7%11.4%4.2%6.5%
Rev Chg Q5.7%-20.9%9.0%0.3%5.3%10.9%5.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.4%-7.1%2.3%0.1%1.5%2.9%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM8.7%12.2%20.8%12.1%28.2%24.9%16.5%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg1.8%17.0%19.0%11.1%31.5%21.6%18.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM4.8%-7.5%0.8%-1.7%-1.4%0.1%-0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM9.2%23.2%26.5%9.7%45.5%32.3%24.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg2.9%26.8%23.3%-8.9%44.6%29.0%25.0%
FCF/Rev LTM5.7%9.6%-6.6%-1.1%11.7%-8.2%2.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg0.5%14.4%-9.9%-19.0%9.3%-9.7%-4.6%

Valuation

NRGVSTEXCCEGNEEAEPMedian
NameNRG Ener.Vistra Exelon Constell.NextEra .American. 
Mkt Cap28.854.244.7106.7165.861.457.8
P/S1.03.91.94.15.92.83.3
P/EBIT13.030.18.624.720.710.616.9
P/E21.757.616.137.624.016.422.8
P/CFO11.416.67.142.613.08.812.2
Total Yield4.6%2.2%9.7%3.1%7.1%9.4%5.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.5%3.5%0.5%2.9%3.3%1.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-5.5%11.6%-5.5%-9.5%1.3%-4.3%-4.9%
D/E0.40.31.10.10.60.80.5
Net D/E0.40.31.10.00.60.80.5

Returns

NRGVSTEXCCEGNEEAEPMedian
NameNRG Ener.Vistra Exelon Constell.NextEra .American. 
1M Rtn-8.4%-8.6%-5.1%0.7%-5.7%-7.3%-6.5%
3M Rtn-8.9%-23.2%3.2%6.3%15.0%7.5%4.7%
6M Rtn-1.6%-11.6%6.2%11.5%13.8%15.2%8.9%
12M Rtn65.7%15.1%25.5%46.4%14.6%29.1%27.3%
3Y Rtn420.5%598.7%18.0%296.2%4.1%36.0%166.1%
1M Excs Rtn-9.1%-9.3%-5.8%-0.1%-6.5%-8.0%-7.2%
3M Excs Rtn-10.1%-25.2%2.1%4.4%12.8%7.3%3.3%
6M Excs Rtn-13.9%-24.0%-6.2%-0.8%1.4%2.8%-3.5%
12M Excs Rtn48.4%-0.0%13.2%32.3%1.4%17.0%15.1%
3Y Excs Rtn326.3%525.9%-52.1%216.1%-67.2%-38.0%89.1%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
East12,54716,76313,0252,2582,319
Texas10,47610,05710,2956,3097,069
West/Services/Other4,2814,7063,659530440
Vivint Smart Home1,549    
Corporate00000
Eliminations-301710-4-7
Total28,82331,54326,9899,0939,821


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Texas3,0921,2621,2868191,059
Vivint Smart Home46    
Eliminations00000
Corporate-169-12042-86-75
West/Services/Other-859558112105
East-1,7263181,901362301
Total3842,0183,3411,1051,290


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Texas3,0941,2651,290800972
Vivint Smart Home31    
Eliminations00000
Corporate-656-850-1,098-6793,175
West/Services/Other-94448088374
East-1,7273261,907352287
Total-2021,2212,1875104,438


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Corporate20,35735,78019,05111,1528,342
East13,71219,52613,6451,7902,160
Texas8,23611,47512,2717,6415,711
Vivint Smart Home6,619    
West/Services/Other3,6128,1394,6731,6791,190
Eliminations-26,498-45,774-26,458-7,360-4,872
Total26,03829,14623,18214,90212,531


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity5,017,597
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520258.7%
Average Daily Volume1,875,191
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.68
Basic Shares Quantity193,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/6/2025-1.8%-2.5%-5.2%
5/12/202526.2%33.4%24.6%
2/26/202510.6%-2.1%-4.9%
11/8/2024-0.3%-4.9%-0.3%
8/8/20248.2%14.3%6.2%
2/28/20241.2%11.0%23.3%
11/2/20232.9%4.1%10.3%
8/8/2023-2.0%-1.4%1.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121212
# Negative999
Median Positive4.2%4.6%9.8%
Median Negative-2.0%-3.1%-5.2%
Max Positive26.2%33.4%24.6%
Max Negative-11.1%-12.6%-21.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241108202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023808202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221107202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021