Pattern (PTRN)
Market Price (3/21/2026): $11.15 | Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Construction Materials
Pattern (PTRN)
Market Price (3/21/2026): $11.15Market Cap: $2.0 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Construction Materials
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -96% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 121x |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Machine Learning. | Key risksPTRN key risks include [1] significant dependency on the Amazon marketplace, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -13% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Machine Learning. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -56%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -96% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 121x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% |
| Key risksPTRN key risks include [1] significant dependency on the Amazon marketplace, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. A significant analyst price target cut by JPMorgan contributed to a sharp stock decline. Pattern Group Inc. experienced a notable sell-off in early March 2026 after JPMorgan lowered its price target from $21 to $17, despite the company reporting strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results.
2. Broader software sector volatility, driven by artificial intelligence (AI) disruption fears, impacted investor sentiment for technology stocks including Pattern. The decline in Pattern's stock occurred amidst a period of broader market weakness and elevated volatility in the technology sector, with the software industry facing pressure from concerns regarding AI-related disruptions.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -23.2% change in PTRN stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/20/2026 was primarily driven by a -3.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3202026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 14.54 | 11.17 | -23.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | 2,501 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | � | 121.3 | 0.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 171 | 176 | -3.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 0.0% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTRN | -23.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -4.8% | 31.2% |
| Sector (XLB) | 5.1% | 12.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTRN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 1.1% | 29.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | 2.3% | 19.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTRN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 10.4% | 29.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | 7.4% | 19.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/20/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTRN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 70.3% | 29.3% |
| Sector (XLB) | 21.1% | 19.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PTRN Return | - | - | - | - | -26% | -2% | -28% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 7% | 12% | 37% | 51% | 6% | 192% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 76% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PTRN Win Rate | - | - | - | - | 25% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 55% | 53% | 60% | 65% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PTRN Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | -27% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -21% | -25% | -12% | -11% | -10% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: NEE, CWEN, ORA, CEG, NRG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/20/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
PTRN has limited trading history. Below is the Materials sector ETF (XLB) in its place.
| Event | XLB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 534 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 121 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.4% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 617 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,761 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to NEE, CWEN, ORA, CEG, NRG
In The Past
Materials Select Sector SPDR's stock fell -25.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/20/2022. A -25.7% loss requires a 34.5% gain to breakeven.
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About Pattern (PTRN)
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David Wright, Chief Executive Officer
Mr. Wright is a co-founder of Pattern and has served as its Chief Executive Officer and as a member of its board of directors since the company's inception. From 2004 to 2015, he held various roles within a large non-profit organization, including director of enterprise information management and database team manager.
Jason Beesley, Chief Financial Officer
Mr. Beesley has served as Pattern's Chief Financial Officer since January 2021. From July 2007 to August 2020, he held various senior financial leadership roles at NBCUniversal, Inc., a multinational media and entertainment company, including most recently as chief financial officer of NBCUniversal International. Prior to that, Mr. Beesley held various finance roles at General Electric.
Melanie Alder, Co-Founder and Chief Strategy Officer
Ms. Alder is a co-founder of Pattern and has served as its Secretary and as a member of its board of directors since its inception. She served as Chief Operating Officer from January 2013 to May 2018, Chief Investment Officer from May 2018 to February 2024, and Chief Strategy Officer since February 2024.
Victoria Henderson Bowers, Chief Growth Officer and Chief of Staff to the CEO
Ms. Bowers drives global growth initiatives and partners with executive leadership to align strategy and execution. She brings over 20 years of experience leading e-commerce and omnichannel transformation at Fortune 500 and private equity–backed companies. Prior to joining Pattern, Ms. Bowers held senior leadership roles at Newell Brands and NBG Home, where she built and scaled digital sales strategies and teams across leading retail and marketplace channels.
Hugh Hinkson, Chief Commercial Officer
Mr. Hinkson leads global revenue growth as Chief Commercial Officer at Pattern. He brings extensive experience in e-commerce strategy, analytics, and consulting, having most recently served as VP of E-commerce for the Americas & Europe at Pattern. Before joining Pattern, he held strategic roles at One Click Retail (now Flywheel Digital), Groupon, and Sears Holdings.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN) primarily stem from its significant reliance on a single major e-commerce platform and its concentrated brand partnerships, alongside the inherent regulatory and data challenges of its technology-driven model.
- High Dependence on Amazon and Concentrated Brand Partnerships: Pattern Group Inc. faces substantial risk due to its high dependence on Amazon, which contributed 93% of its revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025. The company's inventory purchases are also heavily concentrated within the health and wellness sector, accounting for 69% of total inventory purchases, with two brand partners each representing 17% of these purchases. This concentration makes Pattern highly vulnerable to any adverse changes in Amazon's policies, operational disruptions on the platform, or a deterioration in its relationships with these key brand partners.
- Regulatory and Data Risks: As a technology company that accelerates brands on global e-commerce marketplaces using proprietary technology, artificial intelligence, and extensive commerce data, Pattern Group Inc. is exposed to evolving regulatory and data risks. The company's annual report highlights "key regulatory, data and control risks." These risks could include changes in data privacy laws, new regulations concerning artificial intelligence, or shifts in marketplace policies regarding data access and utilization, all of which could impact Pattern's operations and profitability.
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Pattern (symbol: PTRN), also known as Pattern Group Inc., operates as an e-commerce accelerator, leveraging proprietary technology and AI to help brands expand their sales across global online marketplaces. The company's primary services involve acquiring inventory from brand partners and reselling these products to consumers on over 60 global marketplaces. The addressable market for Pattern's services is the global e-commerce market. This market is estimated to be a $4 trillion ecosystem. It is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.5% from 2025 to 2029.AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Pattern (symbol: PTRN) over the next 2-3 years:
- Growth with Existing Brand Partners (Net Revenue Retention - NRR): Pattern Group consistently achieves high Net Revenue Retention (NRR), which was 124% in 2025. This indicates a strong ability to grow revenue from its current client base through increased sales and deeper engagement with its e-commerce acceleration platform. The company's guidance for 2026 implies continued success with existing brand partners.
- Expansion to New Brand Partners: The company has demonstrated growth from acquiring new brand partners, with new brand partner revenue increasing 22% year-over-year in 2025. Pattern's future outlook includes continued traction in adding new brand partners to its platform.
- International Expansion: Pattern is experiencing significant growth in its international operations, with international revenue increasing by 63% for the full year 2025 and 69% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company currently operates across more than 60 marketplaces in over 100 countries, indicating a continued focus on broadening its global reach.
- Marketplace Diversification and Social Commerce Growth: Pattern is actively reducing its dependency on Amazon by expanding its presence and revenue generation across other e-commerce marketplaces. Non-Amazon revenue grew 60% in 2025 and 94% in Q4 2025. The company's platform supports various marketplaces including Walmart.com, Target.com, eBay, Tmall, JD, and TikTok Shop. The recent acquisition of a TikTok commerce agency, NextWave, further highlights Pattern's strategy to capture the high-growth social commerce trend.
- Leveraging Proprietary Technology and AI: Pattern emphasizes the ongoing impact of its proprietary technology, artificial intelligence, and large-scale commerce data in accelerating brands. The company's financial outlook attributes past revenue growth to "technology optimizations" and "new product expansions," suggesting continued investment and innovation in its platform to enhance brand performance and drive sales.
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Capital Expenditures
- Pattern Group Inc. focuses on significant investment in research and development for growth, with $24.6 million invested in R&D during Q3 2025.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Pattern Stock Pre-Market (+8.3%): Reports Q4 Beat, Initiates $100M Share Buyback | 03/06/2026 | |
| Pattern Earnings Notes | 12/16/2025 |
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
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| 12122025 | AMCR | Amcor | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 19.2% | 19.2% | -0.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 97.96 |
| Mkt Cap | 17.2 |
| Rev LTM | 14,017 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,063 |
| FCF LTM | 554 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 411 |
| CFO LTM | 1,300 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 720 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 20.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 39.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 17.2 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 21.0 |
| P/E | 35.2 |
| P/CFO | 17.1 |
| Total Yield | 3.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.8% |
| 3M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 30.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 40.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 17.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -29.4% |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kl, Pattern Holdings Lp | See footnote | Buy | 9262025 | 13.38 | 102,256 | 1,367,899 | 374,247,798 | Form | |
| 2 | Kl, Pattern Holdings Lp | See footnote | Buy | 9262025 | 12.47 | 200,000 | 2,493,080 | 351,231,867 | Form | |
| 3 | Gay, Daniel | KSV Pattern, LLC | Sell | 9242025 | 13.02 | 1,010,887 | 13,161,749 | 37,738,548 | Form | |
| 4 | Gay, Daniel | KSV Pattern II, LLC | Sell | 9242025 | 13.02 | 289,113 | 3,764,251 | 10,799,764 | Form | |
| 5 | Wright, David K | Chief Executive Officer | Wright Irrevocable Trust | Sell | 9242025 | 13.02 | 5,694,671 | 74,144,616 | 589,770,586 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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