Tearsheet

Pattern (PTRN)


Market Price (12/13/2025): $12.64 | Market Cap: $1.3 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software

Pattern (PTRN)


Market Price (12/13/2025): $12.64
Market Cap: $1.3 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Application Software

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Machine Learning.
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 243x
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Machine Learning.
1 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 243x

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PTRN Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN) conducted its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on September 19, 2025, pricing shares at $14.00. Shares initially opened lower at $13.50 but concluded their first day of trading up 11% at $15.63.

2. On November 5, 2025, Pattern Group announced strong third-quarter 2025 financial results, reporting record revenues of $640 million, a 46% year-over-year increase, and an 88% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $41 million. Despite an EPS loss of $2.19, the stock price saw a 6.93% surge following the announcement, reflecting positive investor sentiment.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PTRN Return
Peers Return12%37%57%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PTRN Win Rate33% 
Peers Win Rate56%53%60%70% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PTRN Max Drawdown 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-12%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEE, CWEN, ORA, CEG, NRG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

PTRN has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.

Unique KeyEventXLKS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-34.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven278 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-31.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven46.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven79 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven31.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven105 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-53.6%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven115.3%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1183 days1480 days

Compare to


In The Past

SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Pattern (PTRN)

Better Bets than Pattern (PTRN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PTRN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.7%11.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.8%5.8%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.6%11.6%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ENPH_11302025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302025ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
11.5%11.5%-0.9%
PD_11262025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11262025PDPagerDutyDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.7%11.7%0.0%
CRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CRMSalesforceDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.5%15.5%-0.1%
HUBS_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11212025HUBSHubSpotDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
5.8%5.8%0.0%
FIVN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG11212025FIVNFive9Dip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
11.6%11.6%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Pattern

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PTRNNEECWENORACEGNRGMedian
NamePattern NextEra .Clearway.Ormat Te.Constell.NRG Ener. 
Mkt Price12.7281.6532.41113.35351.98161.4497.50
Mkt Cap1.4168.63.86.9110.231.219.0
Rev LTM2,29426,2981,37594424,84129,77913,567
Op Inc LTM227,4041721793,0172,5981,389
FCF LTM713,073440-214-2761,699255
FCF 3Y Avg-2,421451-237-4,768130130
CFO LTM9211,9677033892,4162,7421,560
CFO 3Y Avg-11,847721342-2,252826721

Growth & Margins

PTRNNEECWENORACEGNRGMedian
NamePattern NextEra .Clearway.Ormat Te.Constell.NRG Ener. 
Rev Chg LTM-0.2%0.8%6.1%3.6%5.9%3.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-11.4%3.5%9.5%3.7%-0.9%3.7%
Rev Chg Q45.6%5.3%-11.7%17.9%0.3%5.7%5.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM9.6%1.5%-4.0%4.2%0.1%1.4%1.5%
Op Mgn LTM1.0%28.2%12.5%19.0%12.1%8.7%12.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-31.5%17.7%20.5%11.1%1.8%17.7%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-3.8%-1.4%-3.9%-0.3%-1.7%4.8%-1.5%
CFO/Rev LTM4.0%45.5%51.1%41.2%9.7%9.2%25.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-44.6%53.1%38.7%-8.9%2.9%38.7%
FCF/Rev LTM3.1%11.7%32.0%-22.6%-1.1%5.7%4.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-9.3%33.2%-27.8%-19.0%0.5%0.5%

Valuation

PTRNNEECWENORACEGNRGMedian
NamePattern NextEra .Clearway.Ormat Te.Constell.NRG Ener. 
Mkt Cap1.4168.63.86.9110.231.219.0
P/S0.65.92.46.24.11.03.3
P/EBIT-20.715.623.124.713.020.7
P/E243.424.012.143.837.621.730.8
P/CFO15.113.04.715.042.611.414.0
Total Yield0.4%7.1%18.8%2.8%3.1%4.6%3.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.9%10.5%0.5%0.5%0.0%0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.3%15.0%-5.0%-9.5%-5.5%-5.0%
D/E-0.62.80.50.10.40.5
Net D/E-0.62.70.50.00.40.5

Returns

PTRNNEECWENORACEGNRGMedian
NamePattern NextEra .Clearway.Ormat Te.Constell.NRG Ener. 
1M Rtn-30.1%-4.3%-8.1%1.8%-0.6%-4.4%-4.3%
3M Rtn-14.7%14.3%24.1%8.9%-1.8%14.3%
6M Rtn-10.8%5.4%43.9%18.8%6.7%10.8%
12M Rtn-15.0%25.5%53.6%48.1%72.0%48.1%
3Y Rtn-2.2%14.1%27.8%297.1%422.4%27.8%
1M Excs Rtn-29.7%-4.0%-7.8%2.2%-0.2%-4.0%-4.0%
3M Excs Rtn-11.8%11.5%20.5%3.4%-5.8%11.5%
6M Excs Rtn--3.5%-8.8%29.7%4.6%-7.5%-3.5%
12M Excs Rtn-0.4%8.8%30.5%39.2%61.5%30.5%
3Y Excs Rtn--69.1%-58.9%-44.5%218.7%353.1%-44.5%

Financials

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,042,322
Short Interest: % Change Since 1115202513.6%
Average Daily Volume572,697
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.82
Basic Shares Quantity101,747,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.0%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/5/20250.8%0.8% 
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive110
# Negative001
Median Positive0.8%0.8% 
Median Negative   
Max Positive0.8%0.8% 
Max Negative   

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/30/2025
33120256022025DRS/A 3/31/2025
123120249192025424B4 12/31/2024