Pattern (PTRN)
Market Price (12/13/2025): $12.64 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Pattern (PTRN)
Market Price (12/13/2025): $12.64Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Machine Learning. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 243x |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Machine Learning. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 243x |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PTRN Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN) conducted its Initial Public Offering (IPO) on September 19, 2025, pricing shares at $14.00. Shares initially opened lower at $13.50 but concluded their first day of trading up 11% at $15.63.
2. On November 5, 2025, Pattern Group announced strong third-quarter 2025 financial results, reporting record revenues of $640 million, a 46% year-over-year increase, and an 88% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $41 million. Despite an EPS loss of $2.19, the stock price saw a 6.93% surge following the announcement, reflecting positive investor sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PTRN Return | � | � | � | � | � | � | � |
| Peers Return | � | � | � | 12% | 37% | 57% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PTRN Win Rate | � | � | � | � | � | 33% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | � | 56% | 53% | 60% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PTRN Max Drawdown | � | � | � | � | � | � | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | � | � | -25% | -12% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NEE, CWEN, ORA, CEG, NRG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
PTRN has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 278 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1183 days | 1480 days |
Compare to
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PTRN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.5% | 11.5% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.7% | 11.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Pattern
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 97.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 19.0 |
| Rev LTM | 13,567 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,389 |
| FCF LTM | 255 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 130 |
| CFO LTM | 1,560 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 721 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 38.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 4.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 0.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 19.0 |
| P/S | 3.3 |
| P/EBIT | 20.7 |
| P/E | 30.8 |
| P/CFO | 14.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -5.0% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 14.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 10.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 48.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 27.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 11.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 30.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -44.5% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| Median Negative | |||
| Max Positive | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| Max Negative | |||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 6022025 | DRS/A 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 9192025 | 424B4 12/31/2024 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |