Pattern (PTRN)
Market Price (12/27/2025): $11.81 | Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Pattern (PTRN)
Market Price (12/27/2025): $11.81Market Cap: $1.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -23% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 210x |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Machine Learning. | Key risksPTRN key risks include [1] significant dependency on the Amazon marketplace, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -23% |
| Attractive yieldFCF Yield is 5.9% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Autonomous Technologies. Themes include AI Software Platforms, and Machine Learning. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -70%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -106% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 210x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.7% |
| Key risksPTRN key risks include [1] significant dependency on the Amazon marketplace, Show more. |
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
The search results provide information about Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN) from September to December 2025. This allows me to identify key points for stock movement during this period.
Here's a summary of the key events:
- September 2025: IPO and initial trading. Pattern Group (PTRN) went public on Nasdaq on September 19, 2025, with shares priced at $14.00. Early trading saw the shares open at $13.50 and close up 11% at $15.63 on the first day. However, shares initially fell 3.6% in its Nasdaq debut, closing at $13.50, bucking the trend of strong first-day IPO performances. On September 23, 2025, shares fell 4.0% to $13.40. This indicates some initial volatility and a slight downward trend right after the IPO.
- October 2025: Analyst optimism on e-commerce growth. An article from October 16, 2025, highlighted that Pattern Group is well-positioned to capitalize on the rapid growth of global e-commerce marketplaces and that the global e-commerce market is expected to grow at a 9.5% CAGR from 2025 to 2029. This positive outlook from analysts likely provided some support for the stock.
- Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.2% change in PTRN stock from 9/26/2025 to 12/26/2025 was primarily driven by a 0.0% change in the company's Shares Outstanding (Mil).| 9262025 | 12262025 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 13.96 | 11.84 | -15.19% |
| Change Contribution By | LTM | LTM | |
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | � | � | � |
| Net Income Margin (%) | � | � | � |
| P/E Multiple | � | � | � |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 171.11 | 171.11 | 0.00% |
| Cumulative Contribution | � |
Market Drivers
9/26/2025 to 12/26/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTRN | -15.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | 27.0% |
| Sector (XLK) | 5.1% | 25.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
6/27/2025 to 12/26/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTRN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 12.6% | 26.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 17.0% | 20.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/26/2024 to 12/26/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTRN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 15.8% | 26.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 22.3% | 20.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
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Market Drivers
12/27/2023 to 12/26/2025| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PTRN | ||
| Market (SPY) | 48.0% | 26.1% |
| Sector (XLK) | 53.7% | 20.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PTRN Return | - | - | - | - | - | -27% | -27% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 38% | -12% | 21% | 26% | 16% | 150% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 18% | 114% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PTRN Win Rate | - | - | - | - | - | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 65% | 42% | 68% | 57% | 52% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PTRN Max Drawdown | - | - | - | - | - | -27% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -5% | -26% | -7% | -9% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
PTRN has limited trading history. Below is the Information Technology sector ETF (XLK) in its place.
| Event | XLK | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 278 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.5% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 46.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 79 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 105 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -53.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 115.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,183 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to HPQ, HPE, IBM, CSCO, AAPL
In The Past
SPDR Select Sector Fund's stock fell -34.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/27/2021. A -34.0% loss requires a 51.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
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AI Analysis | Feedback
Analogy 1: Genpact for e-commerce growth and operations.
Analogy 2: Accenture for a brand's online sales department.
Analogy 3: A managed service provider (MSP) like Rackspace, but for a brand's entire e-commerce ecosystem across marketplaces and direct-to-consumer channels.
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Please note that PTRN was the ticker symbol for Pattern Energy Group Inc., which was taken private in March 2020 and is no longer a public company.
Based on its operations when it was a public company, Pattern Energy Group Inc.'s major services were:
- Renewable Energy Generation: Operating and managing wind and solar power facilities to produce clean electricity.
- Wholesale Electricity Sales: Selling the generated renewable electricity to utilities and other customers under long-term power purchase agreements.
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Information Regarding Pattern (Symbol: PTRN) and its Major Customers
Please note: The company Pattern Energy Group Inc., which formerly traded under the symbol PTRN on the NASDAQ stock exchange, was acquired by Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) and Riverstone Holdings LLC. It was subsequently delisted from the stock exchange in March 2020. Therefore, PTRN is no longer an active symbol for a publicly traded company.
However, if your inquiry pertains to Pattern Energy Group Inc. during its period as a public company, it operated primarily as a business-to-business (B2B) entity. The company specialized in developing, owning, and operating wind and solar power generation facilities. It sold electricity generated from these facilities under long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) to various institutional customers.
Its major customers were typically other companies or governmental entities that purchased electricity:
- Utilities: Large regulated electric utility companies that needed to purchase electricity to serve their residential, commercial, and industrial customers, often to meet renewable energy mandates.
- Community Choice Aggregators (CCAs): Entities formed by local governments in certain states to procure power on behalf of their communities.
- Large Commercial and Industrial (C&I) Customers: Businesses with significant energy consumption seeking to power their operations with renewable energy, often with specific environmental or sustainability goals.
Specific examples of major customers (or their publicly traded parent companies) that Pattern Energy Group Inc. contracted with historically include:
- Southern California Edison (a subsidiary of Edison International, symbol: EIX)
- San Diego Gas & Electric (a subsidiary of Sempra Energy, symbol: SRE)
- Pacific Gas and Electric Company (a subsidiary of PG&E Corporation, symbol: PCG)
- PacifiCorp (a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway Energy, which is part of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., symbols: BRK.A, BRK.B)
- Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) (a municipal utility, not publicly traded)
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Here is the management team for Pattern Group Inc. (symbol: PTRN):David Wright, Chief Executive Officer and Director
David Wright is a co-founder of Pattern Group and has served as its Chief Executive Officer and as a member of its board of directors since the company's inception in 2013. From 2004 to 2015, Mr. Wright held various roles within a large non-profit organization, including director of enterprise information management and database team manager. He holds a Bachelor of Science in Accounting and an equivalency certificate for a Bachelor of Science in Information Systems Management from Brigham Young University.
Jason Beesley, Chief Financial Officer
Jason Beesley serves as the Chief Financial Officer of Pattern Group Inc. No detailed background information, including prior companies founded or managed, companies sold, or involvement with private equity firms, was immediately available in the search results.
Melanie Alder, Chief Strategy Officer and Director
Melanie Alder is a co-founder of Pattern Group and has served as its Secretary and as a member of its board of directors since its inception.
Daniel Gay, Director
Daniel Gay has served as a member of Pattern's board of directors since December 2024. He previously served on the board from May 2020 to September 2021. Mr. Gay is a co-founder of KSV Global, an investment firm, and has served as its managing partner since November 2018. He has also served as a managing partner of the private investment arm of Kensington Capital Holdings, an investment firm, since March 2012. Mr. Gay currently serves and has previously served as a director of several portfolio companies of KSV Global and Kensington Capital Holdings.
Ann Mather, Independent Director
Ann Mather has served as a member of Pattern's board of directors since June 2025. She has over 20 years of experience as a finance executive in technology and media companies, particularly public companies. Ms. Mather has been a board member of Netflix, Inc. since 2010 and Bumble, Inc. since March 2020, becoming the chair of Bumble's board in March 2025.
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Here are the key risks to Pattern Group (symbol: PTRN):- Dependency on Amazon and Platform Concentration: Pattern Group has a significant reliance on Amazon, with approximately 88% to 90% of its 2024 revenue stemming from the Amazon marketplace. This presents a substantial concentration risk, as any adverse changes in Amazon's policies, fees, algorithms, or a slowdown in its sales, could directly and materially impact Pattern Group's business.
- Geographic Concentration: The company derives a large majority of its revenue, around 93%, from the U.S. market. This high geographic concentration exposes Pattern Group to risks associated with potential economic downturns or shifts in market conditions specifically within the United States.
- Controlled Company Structure and Limited Shareholder Influence: Pattern Group operates with a controlled company structure where its co-founders maintain majority voting power through a dual-class share structure, holding 86.5% of the voting control post-IPO. This arrangement limits the influence of public shareholders on major company decisions, raising governance concerns.
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Pattern Group Inc. (NASDAQ: PTRN) operates as an e-commerce acceleration platform, aiding various brands in scaling their sales across global online marketplaces. The company utilizes proprietary technology and artificial intelligence to manage aspects such as pricing, advertising, content, forecasting, and customer service, while acquiring inventory from brand partners to resell to consumers in industries including health and wellness, beauty and personal care, home and lifestyle, pet, sports and outdoors, and consumer electronics.
The primary addressable market for Pattern's services is the global e-commerce market. This market is currently estimated to be approximately a $4 trillion ecosystem. Projections indicate that the global e-commerce market is expected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 9.5% from 2025 to 2029.
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Pattern Group Inc. (NASDAQ: PTRN) is an e-commerce acceleration platform that partners with consumer brands to scale their sales across various global online marketplaces, including Amazon, Walmart, Target, TikTok Shop, and Mercado Libre. The company leverages proprietary technology, AI-driven analytics, and operational expertise to manage aspects such as pricing, advertising, content, forecasting, and customer service. Having recently gone public in September 2025, Pattern Group has identified several key drivers for its future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years.
Here are the expected drivers of future revenue growth for Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN):
- Growth from Existing Brand Partners (Net Revenue Retention): Pattern Group expects continued revenue growth by deepening its relationships with current brand partners. The company reported a Net Revenue Retention (NRR) of 122% in the third quarter of 2025, indicating that existing clients are consistently increasing their spending on Pattern's services. This suggests that as brands further integrate and expand their e-commerce operations with Pattern, revenue derived from these relationships will continue to grow.
- Expansion into New Global Marketplaces and Geographies: A significant driver for Pattern's future revenue is its strategic expansion beyond its primary marketplace and into new international regions. The company saw an 81% year-over-year increase in non-Amazon marketplace revenue and a 72% year-over-year increase in international revenue in Q3 2025, with notable strength in Europe, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East. This focus on diversifying its marketplace presence and geographical reach provides substantial avenues for growth.
- Onboarding New Brand Partners: Operating within a global e-commerce market projected to exceed $4 trillion by 2029, Pattern Group is well-positioned to attract and integrate new brand partners onto its platform. The company's integrated platform, long-standing brand partnerships, and strong financial performance are expected to drive further growth as it brings new brands to its acceleration services.
- Advancement and Application of Proprietary Technology and AI: Pattern emphasizes its proprietary technology and AI-driven insights as central to its value proposition. By continuously enhancing its intelligence platform, which aids in areas like dynamic pricing, inventory management, advertising optimization, and fulfillment, Pattern aims to provide superior solutions that attract new brands and increase the engagement and success of existing partners, thereby driving revenue growth. The CEO highlighted "AI-driven discovery, social engagement, automation, and global logistics innovation" as accelerating forces in the industry.
- Strategic Expansion of Fulfillment and Logistics Infrastructure: Investments in physical infrastructure, such as the recently launched West Coast Fulfillment Center in Las Vegas, are crucial for supporting expanded operations. This expansion enhances Pattern’s capacity to handle increased volumes and serve a growing number of brand partners more efficiently, directly contributing to its ability to scale and generate more revenue.
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Share Issuance
- Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN) completed an initial public offering (IPO) on September 19, 2025, raising $300 million.
- The IPO involved the issuance of 21.4 million shares, priced at $14 per share.
Inbound Investments
- The company secured $300 million through its initial public offering on September 19, 2025.
- Following the IPO, Pattern Group Inc.'s valuation stood at $2.5 billion.
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to PTRN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 14.4% | 14.4% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.1% | 13.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.3% | 17.3% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Pattern
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 51.32 |
| Mkt Cap | 158.8 |
| Rev LTM | 56,496 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,584 |
| FCF LTM | 7,327 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,753 |
| CFO LTM | 8,590 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,498 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 12.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 14.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/5/2025 | 0.8% | 0.8% | -28.8% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| # Negative | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Median Positive | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| Median Negative | -28.8% | ||
| Max Positive | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| Max Negative | -28.8% | ||
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 6022025 | DRS/A 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 9192025 | 424B4 12/31/2024 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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