RTX (RTX)
Market Price (10/23/2026): $195.0 | Market Cap: $263.7 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
RTX (RTX)
Market Price (10/23/2026): $195.0Market Cap: $263.7 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.1 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 11 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Cybersecurity, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. | Key risksRTX key risks include [1] the significant multi-billion dollar financial and operational disruption caused by the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine's powdered metal defect. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, CFO LTM is 12 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.1 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 11 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Cybersecurity, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Key risksRTX key risks include [1] the significant multi-billion dollar financial and operational disruption caused by the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine's powdered metal defect. |
Qualitative Assessment
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RTX (RTX) stock has gained about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust demand across defense and commercial aerospace sectors was balanced by ongoing production and supply chain challenges. RTX reported a record company backlog of $340 billion by the end of fiscal Q3 2026, with strong new awards totaling over $81 billion during the quarter, indicating consistent demand for its products and services across its segments, including Raytheon and Collins Aerospace. However, the broader aerospace and defense industry continued to grapple with production, supplier, and workforce constraints, which likely limited the company's ability to fully capitalize on this demand and tempered investor expectations for significant upward movement in the stock price during fiscal Q3 2026.
2. Strong fiscal Q3 2026 earnings beat and a raised full-year outlook provided a late-period upward catalyst, preventing a sustained decline. RTX reported its fiscal Q3 2026 results on October 20, 2026, significantly exceeding analyst consensus with adjusted EPS of $2.26 versus an estimated $1.78, and revenue of $24.97 billion, surpassing the $24.11 billion estimate. This strong performance, which included an 11.1% year-over-year revenue increase, led management to raise its full-year 2026 adjusted sales guidance to $97.0–$97.5 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to $7.65–$7.75. This positive news helped the stock recover some of its earlier losses and return to a relatively stable range by the end of the specified period.
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RTX (RTX) stock has gained about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Robust demand across defense and commercial aerospace sectors was balanced by ongoing production and supply chain challenges. RTX reported a record company backlog of $340 billion by the end of fiscal Q3 2026, with strong new awards totaling over $81 billion during the quarter, indicating consistent demand for its products and services across its segments, including Raytheon and Collins Aerospace. However, the broader aerospace and defense industry continued to grapple with production, supplier, and workforce constraints, which likely limited the company's ability to fully capitalize on this demand and tempered investor expectations for significant upward movement in the stock price during fiscal Q3 2026.
2. Strong fiscal Q3 2026 earnings beat and a raised full-year outlook provided a late-period upward catalyst, preventing a sustained decline. RTX reported its fiscal Q3 2026 results on October 20, 2026, significantly exceeding analyst consensus with adjusted EPS of $2.26 versus an estimated $1.78, and revenue of $24.97 billion, surpassing the $24.11 billion estimate. This strong performance, which included an 11.1% year-over-year revenue increase, led management to raise its full-year 2026 adjusted sales guidance to $97.0–$97.5 billion and adjusted EPS guidance to $7.65–$7.75. This positive news helped the stock recover some of its earlier losses and return to a relatively stable range by the end of the specified period.
3. Investor uncertainty surrounding Pratt & Whitney engine deliveries and related costs acted as a mid-period headwind. Following RTX's fiscal Q2 2026 earnings call on July 23, 2026, analysts raised questions regarding a reported drop in Pratt & Whitney engine deliveries and the company's plans for fulfilling Airbus orders for the remainder of 2026. Given Pratt & Whitney's substantial contribution to RTX's overall sales (approximately $32.9 billion in fiscal 2025), these unaddressed concerns likely created investor caution and contributed to the stock's inability to establish a clear upward trend during parts of fiscal Q3 2026, before the subsequent positive Q3 earnings report.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 3.0% change in RTX stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 189.10 | 194.71 | 3.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 90,373 | 95,987 | 6.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 35.1 | 31.3 | -10.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,348 | 1,352 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 3.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RTX | 3.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 2.3% | -13.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | -10.0% | 36.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.7% change in RTX stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 191.46 | 194.71 | 1.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 88,603 | 95,987 | 8.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.6% | 8.8% | 15.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 38.3 | 31.3 | -18.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,345 | 1,352 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.7% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RTX | 1.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.8% | -0.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 3.3% | 40.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 18.1% change in RTX stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 19.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 164.88 | 194.71 | 18.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 83,599 | 95,987 | 14.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.4% | 8.8% | 19.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.0 | 31.3 | -12.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,341 | 1,352 | -0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 18.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RTX | 18.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 15.6% | 13.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 9.0% | 45.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 187.2% change in RTX stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 76.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 67.79 | 194.71 | 187.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 70,573 | 95,987 | 36.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.9% | 8.8% | 11.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.8 | 31.3 | 76.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,458 | 1,352 | 7.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 187.2% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RTX | 187.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 84.8% | 26.4% |
| Sector (XLI) | 71.0% | 46.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RTX Return | 23% | 20% | -14% | 41% | 61% | 6% | 204% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 18% | 24% | 10% | 33% | 0% | 148% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 104% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RTX Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 75% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 60% | 55% | 58% | 60% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RTX Max Drawdown | -13% | -22% | -33% | -10% | -16% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -18% | -27% | -19% | -23% | -18% | -26% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LMT, NOC, BA, GD, GE. See RTX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RTX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -19.8% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 97 days | 24 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -50.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 410 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -14.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 16.6% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 14 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -19.3% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.9% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 62 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 216 days | 123 days |
In The Past
RTX's stock fell -8.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 9.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | RTX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -50.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 410 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.2% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 37.4% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -23.1% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.0% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 216 days | 123 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -50.3% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 101.2% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 382 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
RTX's stock fell -8.8% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 9.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About RTX (RTX)
Raytheon Technologies Corporation (RTX) is a prominent global aerospace and defense company that delivers advanced systems and services to commercial, military, and government customers worldwide. The company operates through four primary segments, each contributing to its comprehensive portfolio across critical areas of aviation, intelligence, and defense technology.
RTX's Collins Aerospace Systems segment provides essential aerospace products, aftermarket services, and cabin solutions for aircraft manufacturers, airlines, business aviation, and defense operations. Its Pratt & Whitney segment is a leading supplier of aircraft engines and auxiliary power units for commercial, military, and general aviation clients. The Raytheon Intelligence & Space segment focuses on integrated space, communication, and sensor systems, alongside cyber and software solutions, primarily serving intelligence, defense, and federal customers.
Rounding out its offerings, the Raytheon Missiles & Defense segment designs and produces advanced air and missile defense systems, radars, and command, control, and intelligence solutions. This segment primarily serves U.S. and foreign government customers, providing crucial defensive and combat capabilities. Overall, RTX is a key player in both the commercial aerospace infrastructure and advanced defense technology sectors.
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- A combination of GE Aviation (for engines and aircraft parts) and Lockheed Martin (for defense systems).
- The Honeywell of aerospace and defense, supplying a vast array of high-tech components, engines, and systems for commercial and military use.
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- Aerospace Systems: Develops and supports various aerospace products including cabin interiors, communication systems, and airborne intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) systems.
- Aircraft Engines: Supplies engines for commercial, military, business jet, and general aviation aircraft.
- Auxiliary Power Units (APUs): Produces and services auxiliary power units for military and commercial applications.
- Integrated Space, Communication, and Sensor Systems: Provides complex systems for space, communication, and sensor-based missions.
- Cyber and Software Solutions: Offers specialized solutions in cybersecurity and software development.
- Air and Missile Defense Systems: Designs and sustains integrated systems for defending against air and missile threats.
- Defensive and Combat Solutions: Delivers solutions for various defensive and combat operations.
- Radar Systems: Manufactures land-based and sea-based radar systems.
- Command, Control, Communications, and Intelligence (C3I) Solutions: Provides comprehensive solutions for military command, control, communications, and intelligence.
- Naval and Undersea Sensor Solutions: Develops advanced sensor technologies for naval and underwater environments.
- Aerospace Aftermarket Services: Offers spare parts, repair, engineering support, and training for aerospace and defense products.
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Raytheon Technologies Corporation (RTX) primarily serves government entities and various commercial companies worldwide. The company does not primarily sell to individuals.
Major Customers:
- Government Entities: RTX provides systems and services to commercial, military, and government customers globally. This includes the U.S. government (such as intelligence, defense, and federal agencies) and foreign government customers for integrated space, communication, and sensor systems; integrated air and missile defense systems; defensive and combat solutions; radars; and command, control, communications, and intelligence solutions.
- Commercial Companies: This category encompasses a range of commercial enterprises that procure aerospace and defense products and services from RTX. These include:
- Aircraft Manufacturers: Customers who integrate RTX's aerospace products, such as aircraft engines and various cabin interior, communications, and aviation systems, into their aircraft.
- Airlines: Commercial and general aviation customers who purchase aircraft engines, aftermarket services, and various aerospace systems for their fleets.
- Commercial Space Operations & Other Commercial Customers: Companies involved in commercial space operations, as well as other commercial entities requiring integrated space, communication, sensor systems, cyber, and software solutions.
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Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM)
TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG)
L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (LHX)
Parker-Hannifin Corporation (PH)
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Christopher T. Calio
Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Christopher T. Calio was appointed Chief Executive Officer of RTX in May 2024 and became Chairman in April 2025. He joined the former United Technologies Corporation (UTC) in 2005 and has over 10 years of leadership experience within the company's aerospace businesses. Prior to his current role, Calio served as President of Pratt & Whitney, and before that, President of Pratt & Whitney's Commercial Engines business from January 2017 through 2019. He was also the chief of staff for the Chairman and CEO of United Technologies. Notably, Calio led Pratt & Whitney's Commercial Engines Legal Department during the development and launch of the Airbus A320neo program and played a key role in the acquisition of Rolls-Royce's share in the International Aero Engines collaboration. He also served as Vice President and General Counsel for UTC Aerospace Systems, now known as Collins Aerospace. He holds a bachelor's degree in political science from Trinity College, and both an MBA and law degree from the University of Connecticut.
Neil G. Mitchill, Jr.
Chief Financial Officer
Neil G. Mitchill, Jr. serves as the Chief Financial Officer of RTX, a position he was appointed to in April 2021. His responsibilities include financial reporting and controls, planning and analysis, investor relations, internal audit, tax, and treasury. Mitchill joined United Technologies Corp. (UTC) in 2014 as Vice President of Global Financial Services. He progressed through various financial leadership roles at UTC, including Corporate Vice President, Controller in 2015, and Vice President and CFO of Pratt & Whitney in 2016. In 2019, he became the acting Senior Vice President and CFO of UTC, a role he held until the merger with Raytheon Company in 2020, after which he was appointed Corporate Vice President, Financial Planning & Analysis and Investor Relations for Raytheon Technologies. Before joining UTC, Mitchill spent 17 years at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, where he was a lead partner and provided assurance and business advisory services for global industrial products companies. He is a certified public accountant and holds a bachelor's degree in accountancy from Providence College.
Shane G. Eddy
President, Pratt & Whitney
Shane G. Eddy was appointed President of Pratt & Whitney, an RTX business, on March 1, 2022. With over 35 years of experience in the aerospace industry, he leads a business focused on designing, manufacturing, and servicing aircraft engines and auxiliary power units. Prior to his current role, Eddy was Pratt & Whitney's Senior Vice President and Chief Operations Officer. He joined Pratt & Whitney in 2016 from GE Aviation, where he served as Vice President and General Manager for Turboshaft/Turboprop Engines. Before his time at GE, Eddy spent six years at Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation, holding positions as Senior Vice President, Operations, and later as President, Commercial Systems and Services. His career also includes 14 years at Bell Helicopter Textron, where he held leadership roles such as Executive Director, Commercial Helicopter Programs, and Senior Vice President, Customer Support & Chief Services Officer. Eddy holds an MBA from Concordia University, Quebec, and an undergraduate degree from Canadore College, Ontario.
Vincent M. Campisi
Chief Digital Officer and Senior Vice President of Enterprise Services
Vincent M. Campisi is the Chief Digital Officer and leader of the Enterprise Services division at RTX, directing the company's digital strategy and global business services. He joined RTX (then United Technologies Corporation) in 2016, bringing 25 years of experience in the aerospace and defense, energy, financial services, and technology sectors. Before joining UTC, Campisi held multiple leadership roles at General Electric starting in 1999, including Chief Operating Officer at GE Digital, Chief Information Officer and Quality Leader at GE Vernova, general manager for cloud services, and CIO for GE Software. His work focuses on strengthening cybersecurity, maximizing productivity through information technology, and implementing enhanced software and data analytics practices. He earned a Bachelor's Degree in Business Administration and Management from the University at Albany.
Phil Jasper
President, Raytheon
Phil Jasper was appointed President of Raytheon, an RTX business, on January 4, 2024, and is a member of the RTX senior leadership team. With 31 years of experience in the aerospace and defense industry, he is responsible for leading Raytheon's franchises in missile defense, air-to-air missiles, fire control radars, and electro-optical/infra-red systems. In 2018, Jasper was named president of Collins Aerospace's Mission Systems strategic business unit, where he was responsible for delivering military, government, and civil solutions globally. He has a background in transitioning commercial aerospace technologies to the defense sector, contributing to innovations in battlefield communications and networking solutions, and designing, developing, and integrating mission-specific capabilities for military aircraft.
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Key Risks to RTX Business
- Pratt & Whitney GTF Engine Crisis: Raytheon Technologies faces significant financial charges due to the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan (GTF) engine crisis, which includes airline compensation and expedited maintenance. This issue also carries the risk of long-term market share erosion on future narrow-body aircraft projects.
- Raytheon Margin Dilution on Fixed-Price Production Increase: The company is experiencing operating margin compression within its Raytheon segments despite revenue growth. This is attributed to lower-margin fixed-price contracts replacing more mature, high-margin programs, leading to potential negative earnings per share revisions. RTX's 10-K filing identifies cost overruns on fixed-price contracts as a primary business risk.
- Dependence on Government Contracts and Geopolitical/Regulatory Changes: A substantial portion of RTX's revenue is derived from contracts with the U.S. government and other international governments. This reliance exposes the company to risks associated with shifts in defense spending, budgetary constraints, political factors, and the potential for contract terminations or delays. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions, regulatory changes, trade policies, sanctions, and export controls can significantly impact RTX's global operations and international sales.
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Raytheon Technologies Corporation (RTX) operates across diverse and substantial addressable markets within the aerospace and defense sectors. The estimated market sizes for its primary products and services are outlined below:
Collins Aerospace Systems
- Aircraft Cabin Interior Market: The global aircraft cabin interior market was valued at approximately USD 41.10 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 83.80 billion by 2034.
- Aircraft Communication Systems Market: The global aircraft communication system market size was valued at USD 18.50 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 38.70 billion by 2034.
- Aerospace Electronics Market: The global aerospace electronics market size was approximately USD 127.20 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to USD 237.33 billion by 2035.
Pratt & Whitney
- Aircraft Engine Market: The global aircraft engine market size is expected to be valued at USD 118.53 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach around USD 251.79 billion by 2035.
- Military Aircraft Engine Market: The global military aircraft engine market size was valued at around USD 34.29 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 67.19 billion by 2032.
- Aerospace and Military Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) Market: The global aerospace and military APU market is estimated at approximately USD 4.72 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach about USD 7.02 billion by 2035.
Raytheon Intelligence & Space
- Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Market: The global Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) market was valued at approximately USD 42 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach around USD 71.2 billion by 2034.
- Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) Market: The global C4ISR market was valued at USD 126.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 216 billion by 2034.
- Defense Electronics Market: The global defense electronics market was valued at USD 175.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 302.8 billion by 2034.
Raytheon Missiles & Defense
- Air Defense System Market: The global air defense system market was valued at USD 46.3 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow to USD 80.1 billion by 2034.
- Missile Defense System Market: The global missile defense system market was valued at USD 31.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 54.2 billion by 2033.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for RTX over the next 2-3 years:
- Conversion of Record Backlog and Sustained Demand: RTX boasts a record backlog of $268 billion as of January 2026, which represents nearly three years of future revenue already under contract. The company's focus on operational execution and converting this robust backlog into realized sales is a primary driver of sustained revenue growth.
- Growth in Commercial Aerospace Aftermarket: The recovery in global commercial air traffic and increasing flight hours are significantly boosting demand for commercial aerospace aftermarket services, including spare parts, maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO). This trend is expected to drive substantial revenue growth for Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney segments, with management anticipating approximately 10% growth in the total commercial aftermarket for 2025.
- Increased Global Defense Spending and International Expansion: Escalating geopolitical tensions worldwide are leading to higher defense budgets, particularly in Europe, which is driving strong demand for RTX's advanced defense systems. International customers account for a significant portion of RTX's defense backlog, and continued large-scale contract wins for integrated air and missile defense systems, such as Patriot and LTAMDS, are expected to fuel revenue growth.
- Advancements in Product Development and Manufacturing Efficiency: RTX is investing in new capabilities, expanding production capacity, and leveraging digital factory initiatives to enhance productivity and meet growing customer needs. This includes a focus on developing next-generation technologies like hypersonics and increasing the volume of key defense systems and commercial engine deliveries (e.g., GTF and F135 engines), which will contribute to higher sales volumes and a favorable program mix.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- RTX authorized a $6 billion share repurchase program in December 2022, which superseded a prior authorization from December 2021.
- In October 2023, the company initiated a $10 billion accelerated share repurchase (ASR) program, as part of its commitment to return $36-$37 billion to shareholders through 2025.
- RTX repurchased $12.9 billion of shares in 2023 and $3.7 billion in 2024, contributing to over $33 billion returned to shareholders since the merger.
Outbound Investments
- Raytheon (an RTX business) launched RTX Ventures in April 2022, a new investment arm focused on strategic investments in companies developing transformational aerospace and defense technologies, making an initial investment in hypersonic aircraft developer Hermeus.
- The company made several acquisitions, including Seakr Engineering in September 2021 for advanced spacecraft electronics and NORSS in July 2022 for space services.
- In 2025, RTX invested $85 million across 19 companies through RTX Ventures, and in May 2024, Raytheon invested in UVAD Technologies for a supersonic Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle target.
Capital Expenditures
- RTX reported capital expenditures of approximately $2.4 billion in 2023 and $2.6 billion in 2024, with estimated CapEx for 2025 at $2.6 billion and projected CapEx of $3.1 billion for 2026.
- Total investments in capital expenditures and company/customer-funded research and development exceeded $10 billion in both 2024 and 2025, with a similar amount projected for 2026.
- The primary focus of these expenditures includes expanding production capacity, modernizing infrastructure, and advancing technologies in commercial aerospace and defense, such as missile and sensor production facilities.
Peer Outperformance in Aerospace & Defense
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTX | RTX | 12.7% | 31.3x | 11.0% | 182.7% | 136.0% | — |
| HWM | Howmet Aerospace | 13.8% | 41.3x | 1.3% | 347.5% | 543.8% | +408pp |
| MOG-A | Moog | 10.4% | 28.7x | 68.4% | 211.3% | 349.9% | +214pp |
| ATRO | Astronics | 15.0% | 32.2x | 24.3% | 283.2% | 346.1% | +210pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 30 | -2.5% | 102.3% | 139.8% | STRL 1538% · FIX 1451% · AGX 712% |
| Marine Transportation | 5 | 53.7% | 50.1% | 131.4% | MATX 188% · KEX 131% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 2.1% | 58.8% | 94.9% | CAT 280% · ALSN 241% · WAB 208% |
| Aerospace & Defense ← | 52 | -12.6% | 59.4% | 57.0% | ATI 913% · FTAI 721% · HWM 544% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 19 | 12.5% | 32.3% | 51.1% | DXPE 382% · AIT 233% · URI 213% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 72 | 5.8% | 55.2% | 38.4% | CRS 867% · MLI 375% · SYM 308% |
| Diversified Support Services | 34 | 11.3% | 38.9% | 36.6% | CXW 226% · OPLN 155% · CTAS 120% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 32.2% | 62.3% | 31.1% | CSX 56% · UNP 40% · NSC 31% |
| Building Products | 33 | -7.3% | 12.9% | 24.5% | GFF 344% · TT 164% · JCI 114% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 33.6% | 6.9% | 19.4% | XPO 262% · R 237% · ARCB 51% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 37 | -11.3% | 70.5% | 3.7% | POWL 1786% · BE 979% · VRT 717% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 7.7% | 8.7% | -5.9% | CSW 121% · DD 72% · CSL 64% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 16 | 1.5% | -1.6% | -10.6% | DE 102% · TTC 15% · AGCO -6% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -21.6% | 0.4% | -15.0% | EXLS 73% · BR 11% · G -12% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | 4.1% | -12.2% | -15.9% | HURN 290% · FCN 11% · BAH 5% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 9 | -52.1% | 12.7% | -21.3% | BCO 99% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 9 | 19.4% | 18.4% | -24.4% | PBI 201% · TILE 148% · HNI 43% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 29 | -26.4% | 32.4% | -32.4% | GEO 231% · CLH 180% · RSG 93% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 5.1% | 20.4% | -34.2% | LTM 3130% · UAL 118% · DAL 107% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -25.1% | 60.5% | -36.4% | UBER 52% · CAR -36% · LYFT -64% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -25.4% | -18.7% | -39.6% | FDX 80% · EXPD 69% · CHRW 61% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 22 | 17.2% | -9.0% | -42.0% | ADP 58% · PAYX 12% · FA 10% |
| Airport Services | 4 | -69.6% | -68.3% | -83.5% | JOBY -48% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| RTX stock vs TransDigm stock: Which Is A Better Investment? | 08/05/2026 | |
| Reading Between The Lines Of RTX's Latest Call | 07/30/2026 | |
| Get Paid 8.3% A Year To Hold RTX Stock You Already Own | 07/24/2026 | |
| RTX Earnings Notes | 07/22/2026 | |
| RTX Stock Hands $34 Bil Back - Worth a Look? | 06/06/2026 | |
| The Bear Case: How RTX Behaves During Market Shocks | 04/28/2026 | |
| RTX Stock Plummets 12% With 6-Day Losing Streak | 04/28/2026 | |
| RTX Stock 5-Day Losing Spree: Stock Falls 11% | 04/25/2026 | |
| 3 Forces That Could Shake RTX Stock | 03/07/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| RTX Stock Is Waiting On One Answer | 10/19/2026 | |
| RTX Reports Soon: How Has The Stock Reacted To Past Earnings? | 10/19/2026 | |
| The 52-Week-High List: 13 S&P 500 Names On Tuesday | 08/19/2026 | |
| How Much RTX Are You Quietly Betting On? | 07/30/2026 | |
| Reading Between The Lines Of RTX’s Latest Call | 07/29/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 322.87 |
| Mkt Cap | 142.1 |
| Rev LTM | 65,938 |
| Op Inc LTM | 7,408 |
| FCF LTM | 7,422 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 5,291 |
| CFO LTM | 8,752 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 6,502 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 23.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 10.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 11.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.3% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 142.1 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 16.9 |
| P/EBIT | 18.8 |
| P/E | 26.5 |
| P/CFO | 18.1 |
| Total Yield | 5.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -2.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 7.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 0.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 51.5% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -11.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -29.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pratt & Whitney | 32,916 | 28,066 | 18,296 | 20,530 | 18,150 |
| Collins Aerospace | 30,196 | 28,284 | 26,253 | 23,052 | 21,152 |
| Raytheon | 28,043 | 26,713 | 26,350 | 25,176 | 26,611 |
| Acquisition accounting adjustments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Corporate expenses and other unallocated items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Financial accounting standards (FAS)/cost accounting standards (CAS) operating adjustment | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eliminations and other | -2,552 | -2,325 | -1,979 | -1,684 | -1,525 |
| Total | 88,603 | 80,738 | 68,920 | 67,074 | 64,388 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collins Aerospace | 4,923 | 4,135 | 3,825 | 2,816 | 2,380 |
| Raytheon | 3,227 | 2,594 | 2,379 | 2,448 | 3,399 |
| Pratt & Whitney | 2,596 | 2,015 | -1,455 | 1,075 | 454 |
| Financial accounting standards (FAS)/cost accounting standards (CAS) operating adjustment | 753 | 833 | 1,127 | 1,399 | 1,654 |
| Eliminations and other | 54 | -48 | -42 | -23 | 4 |
| Corporate expenses and other unallocated items | -248 | -933 | -275 | -318 | -552 |
| Acquisition accounting adjustments | -2,005 | -2,058 | -1,998 | -1,893 | -2,203 |
| Total | 9,300 | 6,538 | 3,561 | 5,504 | 5,136 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collins Aerospace | 71,680 | 72,372 | 72,085 | 67,030 | 67,564 |
| Pratt & Whitney | 52,482 | 44,307 | 40,723 | 36,205 | 33,414 |
| Raytheon | 44,795 | 44,936 | 44,929 | ||
| Corporate, eliminations and other | 2,122 | 1,246 | 4,132 | 6,603 | 10,115 |
| Raytheon Intelligence & Space | 21,174 | 21,545 | |||
| Raytheon Missiles & Defense | 27,852 | 28,766 | |||
| Total | 171,079 | 162,861 | 161,869 | 158,864 | 161,404 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $194.71 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 263.3 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -13.7% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $197.68 | $194.20 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | -1.5% | 0.3% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 20.4% | 25.0% |
| Downside Capture | 39.25 | 28.57 |
| Upside Capture | -18.39 | 39.50 |
| Correlation (S&P 500) | -1.7% | 13.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.09 | 0.22 | -0.06 | 0.11 | 0.35 | 0.43 |
| Up Beta | 0.88 | 0.61 | -0.14 | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.41 |
| Down Beta | -1.23 | 0.94 | -0.41 | -0.34 | 0.38 | 0.54 |
| Up Capture | -49% | -40% | 0% | 6% | 30% | 23% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 18 | 32 | 62 | 132 | 405 |
| Down Capture | 158% | 94% | 13% | 25% | 36% | 44% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 14 | 24 | 32 | 64 | 120 | 343 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RTX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTX | 14.3% | 25.0% | 0.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 8.6% | 17.2% | 0.31 | 44.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.8% | 12.7% | 0.80 | 11.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | -2.2% | 28.4% | -0.09 | 16.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 52.1% | 20.7% | 1.91 | -6.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 13.9% | 0.08 | 29.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -22.4% | 43.4% | -0.47 | 8.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RTX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTX | 19.5% | 24.3% | 0.69 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.0% | 17.6% | 0.51 | 54.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.0% | 17.1% | 0.57 | 38.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.9% | 0.72 | 9.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.3% | 19.5% | 0.36 | 13.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.1% | 18.9% | -0.05 | 36.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.0% | 51.7% | 0.33 | 15.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RTX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTX | 15.5% | 27.9% | 0.55 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.2% | 20.0% | 0.57 | 71.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.4% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 56.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.9% | 16.4% | 0.59 | 4.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.3% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 23.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 52.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.0% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 11.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/23/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/20/2026 | 0.6% | ||
| 7/23/2026 | 7.3% | 10.5% | 9.3% |
| 4/21/2026 | -4.4% | -11.4% | -10.9% |
| 1/27/2026 | -0.9% | 1.1% | -1.5% |
| 10/21/2025 | 7.7% | 11.5% | 8.7% |
| 7/22/2025 | -1.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| 4/22/2025 | -9.8% | -1.0% | 8.8% |
| 1/28/2025 | -2.5% | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 15 | 15 |
| # Negative | 17 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 3.0% | 7.7% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -3.0% | -5.0% |
| Max Positive | 8.2% | 12.1% | 23.2% |
| Max Negative | -10.2% | -11.4% | -11.4% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/20/2026 | 0.6% | ||
| 7/23/2026 | 7.3% | 10.5% | 9.3% |
| 4/21/2026 | -4.4% | -11.4% | -10.9% |
| 1/27/2026 | -0.9% | 1.1% | -1.5% |
| 10/21/2025 | 7.7% | 11.5% | 8.7% |
| 7/22/2025 | -1.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| 4/22/2025 | -9.8% | -1.0% | 8.8% |
| 1/28/2025 | -2.5% | 0.0% | 2.2% |
| 10/22/2024 | -0.3% | -0.4% | -5.0% |
| 7/25/2024 | 8.2% | 12.1% | 13.2% |
| 4/23/2024 | -0.2% | 0.9% | 4.4% |
| 1/23/2024 | -0.1% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| 10/24/2023 | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.7% |
| 7/25/2023 | -10.2% | -9.4% | -11.4% |
| 4/25/2023 | -1.3% | -2.1% | -7.6% |
| 1/24/2023 | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| 10/25/2022 | -1.5% | 5.7% | 8.6% |
| 7/26/2022 | -4.6% | -1.4% | -1.7% |
| 4/26/2022 | -0.4% | -5.4% | -5.9% |
| 1/25/2022 | -1.5% | 0.5% | 4.9% |
| 10/26/2021 | -2.3% | -3.0% | -3.8% |
| 7/27/2021 | 2.6% | 0.8% | -0.0% |
| 4/27/2021 | 2.2% | 3.9% | 7.1% |
| 1/26/2021 | -2.5% | 4.4% | 9.8% |
| 10/27/2020 | -7.0% | -8.3% | 23.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 15 | 15 |
| # Negative | 17 | 9 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 3.0% | 7.7% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -3.0% | -5.0% |
| Max Positive | 8.2% | 12.1% | 23.2% |
| Max Negative | -10.2% | -11.4% | -11.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/20/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/21/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-K |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2026 | 10/20/2026 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2026 | 07/23/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/21/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/11/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/26/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/27/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/08/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/27/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/07/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/06/2020 | 10-K |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/21/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/20/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted Sales | Reported | 97.00 Bil | 97.25 Bil | 97.50 Bil | 1.8% | Raised | Guidance: 95.50 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Organic Sales Growth | Reported | 10.0% | 10.5% | 11.0% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 8.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 7.65 | 7.7 | 7.75 | 7.3% | Raised | Guidance: 7.18 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 9.00 Bil | 9.10 Bil | 9.20 Bil | 5.5% | Raised | Guidance: 8.62 Bil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/23/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted Sales | Reported | 95.00 Bil | 95.50 Bil | 96.00 Bil | 2.7% | Raised | Guidance: 93.00 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Organic Sales Growth | Reported | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 3.0% | Raised | Guidance: 5.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 7.1 | 7.18 | 7.25 | 5.5% | Raised | Guidance: 6.8 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 8.50 Bil | 8.62 Bil | 8.75 Bil | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 8.50 Bil for 2026 | |
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted Sales | Reported | 92.50 Bil | 93.00 Bil | 93.50 Bil | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 92.50 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Organic Sales Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.5% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 6.7 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 1.5% | Raised | Guidance: 6.7 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 8.25 Bil | 8.50 Bil | 8.75 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 8.50 Bil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Adjusted Sales | Reported | 92.00 Bil | 92.50 Bil | 93.00 Bil | 6.6% | Higher New | Actual: 86.75 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Organic Sales Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | -3.0% | Lower New | Actual: 8.5% for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | Reported | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 8.9% | Higher New | Actual: 6.15 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | Reported | 8.25 Bil | 8.50 Bil | 8.75 Bil | 17.2% | Higher New | Actual: 7.25 Bil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 10/5/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maharajh, Ramsaran | EVP and General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 223.92 | 13,655 | 3,057,563 | 2,952,099 | Form |
| 2 | Dasilva, Kevin G | Senior VP and Treasurer | Direct | Sell | 7282026 | 216.93 | 2,250 | 488,097 | 4,360,138 | Form |
| 3 | Atkinson, Tracy A | Direct | Sell | 7282026 | 218.05 | 2,295 | 500,424 | 389,219 | Form | |
| 4 | Brunk, Troy D | President, Collins Aerospace | Direct | Sell | 7282026 | 210.29 | 8,557 | 1,799,487 | 1,852,505 | Form |
| 5 | Dasilva, Kevin G | Senior VP and Treasurer | Direct | Sell | 7282026 | 213.62 | 4,760 | 1,016,831 | 4,774,215 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maharajh, Ramsaran | EVP and General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8192026 | 223.92 | 13,655 | 3,057,563 | 2,952,099 | Form |
| 2 | Dasilva, Kevin G | Senior VP and Treasurer | Direct | Sell | 7282026 | 216.93 | 2,250 | 488,097 | 4,360,138 | Form |
| 3 | Atkinson, Tracy A | Direct | Sell | 7282026 | 218.05 | 2,295 | 500,424 | 389,219 | Form | |
| 4 | Brunk, Troy D | President, Collins Aerospace | Direct | Sell | 7282026 | 210.29 | 8,557 | 1,799,487 | 1,852,505 | Form |
| 5 | Dasilva, Kevin G | Senior VP and Treasurer | Direct | Sell | 7282026 | 213.62 | 4,760 | 1,016,831 | 4,774,215 | Form |
| 6 | Williams, Dantaya M | EVP & Chief HR Officer | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 202.83 | 12,713 | 2,578,611 | 3,397,341 | Form |
| 7 | Mitchill, Neil G JR | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 205.56 | 35,755 | 7,349,900 | 12,242,502 | Form |
| 8 | Maharajh, Ramsaran | EVP and General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 204.65 | 15,124 | 3,095,124 | 2,698,103 | Form |
| 9 | Calio, Christopher T | Chairman, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 203.80 | 63,568 | 12,955,182 | 18,396,689 | Form |
| 10 | Dasilva, Kevin G | Senior VP and Treasurer | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 201.30 | 8,136 | 1,637,745 | 5,455,540 | Form |
| 11 | Eddy, Shane G | President, P&W | Direct | Sell | 2132026 | 199.16 | 17,527 | Form | ||
| 12 | Johnson, Amy L | Senior VP and Controller | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 195.03 | 8,088 | 1,577,403 | 2,149,809 | Form |
| 13 | Calio, Christopher T | Chairman, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 10292025 | 178.32 | 4,813 | 858,278 | 14,534,914 | Form |
| 14 | Mitchill, Neil G JR | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10282025 | 180.15 | 4,849 | 873,528 | 10,728,775 | Form |
| 15 | Atkinson, Tracy A | Direct | Sell | 10282025 | 178.91 | 2,800 | 500,948 | 729,953 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 23, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gladstone Capital Management LLP | $116.2 Mil | 11.7% | 32 | TRIM -7.5% | 13F |
| J. Stern & Co. LLP | $58.3 Mil | 5.6% | 49 | TRIM -99.5% | 13F |
| Mark Asset Management LP | $40.6 Mil | 5.4% | 31 | TRIM -5.6% | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $248.2 Mil | 5.0% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $16.7 Mil | 5.0% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Carmel Capital Management L.L.C. | $15.5 Mil | 4.4% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| Saybrook Capital /NC | $16.0 Mil | 4.3% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $76.5 Mil | 4.3% | 49 | New | 13F |
| General Pension Society PZU Joint Stock Co | $27.4 Mil | 4.2% | 15 | Hold | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $107.1 Mil | 3.5% | 22 | TRIM -26.9% | 13F |
| Lone Peak Global Investors LLC | $17.8 Mil | 3.0% | 42 | TRIM -18.7% | 13F |
| Saratoga Research & Investment Management | $50.0 Mil | 2.8% | 46 | TRIM -17.2% | 13F |
| Bayberry Capital Partners LP | $7.0 Mil | 2.3% | 28 | New | 13F |
| Archon Partners LLC | $19.5 Mil | 2.3% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Element Capital Management LLC | $5.8 Mil | 2.3% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $1.8 Bil | 2.2% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $5.0 Mil | 1.2% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $66.0 Mil | 1.1% | 31 | TRIM -31.6% | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $11.6 Mil | 0.9% | 33 | ADD +54.5% | 13F |
| Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd | $24.7 Mil | 0.7% | 36 | New | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $11.3 Mil | 0.5% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $248.2 Mil | 5.0% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $76.5 Mil | 4.3% | 49 | New | 13F |
| Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd | $24.7 Mil | 0.7% | 36 | New | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $11.3 Mil | 0.5% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Bayberry Capital Partners LP | $7.0 Mil | 2.3% | 28 | New | 13F |
| Element Capital Management LLC | $5.8 Mil | 2.3% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $11.6 Mil | 0.9% | 33 | ADD +54.5% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Stern & Co. LLP | $58.3 Mil | 5.6% | 49 | TRIM -99.5% | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $66.0 Mil | 1.1% | 31 | TRIM -31.6% | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $107.1 Mil | 3.5% | 22 | TRIM -26.9% | 13F |
| Lone Peak Global Investors LLC | $17.8 Mil | 3.0% | 42 | TRIM -18.7% | 13F |
| Saratoga Research & Investment Management | $50.0 Mil | 2.8% | 46 | TRIM -17.2% | 13F |
| Gladstone Capital Management LLP | $116.2 Mil | 11.7% | 32 | TRIM -7.5% | 13F |
| Mark Asset Management LP | $40.6 Mil | 5.4% | 31 | TRIM -5.6% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $1.8 Bil | 2.2% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $248.2 Mil | 5.0% | 44 | New | 13F |
| Gladstone Capital Management LLP | $116.2 Mil | 11.7% | 32 | TRIM -7.5% | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $107.1 Mil | 3.5% | 22 | TRIM -26.9% | 13F |
| Kinetic Partners Management, LP | $76.5 Mil | 4.3% | 49 | New | 13F |
| Appaloosa LP | $66.0 Mil | 1.1% | 31 | TRIM -31.6% | 13F |
| J. Stern & Co. LLP | $58.3 Mil | 5.6% | 49 | TRIM -99.5% | 13F |
| Saratoga Research & Investment Management | $50.0 Mil | 2.8% | 46 | TRIM -17.2% | 13F |
| Mark Asset Management LP | $40.6 Mil | 5.4% | 31 | TRIM -5.6% | 13F |
| General Pension Society PZU Joint Stock Co | $27.4 Mil | 4.2% | 15 | Hold | 13F |
| Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd | $24.7 Mil | 0.7% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Archon Partners LLC | $19.5 Mil | 2.3% | 39 | Hold | 13F |
| Lone Peak Global Investors LLC | $17.8 Mil | 3.0% | 42 | TRIM -18.7% | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $16.7 Mil | 5.0% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Saybrook Capital /NC | $16.0 Mil | 4.3% | 42 | Hold | 13F |
| Carmel Capital Management L.L.C. | $15.5 Mil | 4.4% | 25 | Hold | 13F |
| Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C. | $11.6 Mil | 0.9% | 33 | ADD +54.5% | 13F |
| BSN CAPITAL PARTNERS Ltd | $11.3 Mil | 0.5% | 41 | New | 13F |
| Bayberry Capital Partners LP | $7.0 Mil | 2.3% | 28 | New | 13F |
| Element Capital Management LLC | $5.8 Mil | 2.3% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Cincinnati Specialty Underwriters Insurance CO | $5.0 Mil | 1.2% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
RTX Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
RTX is converting a historic defense demand surge into a record $340 billion backlog, with a 4.57x book-to-bill ratio signaling powerful forward momentum. This provides exceptional multi-year revenue visibility. However, significant execution risks, including supply chain constraints and ongoing Pratt & Whitney engine issues, temper conviction until the company demonstrates it can profitably deliver on its commitments.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Long-Cycle Industrial Manufacturer & Servicer(Backlog Conversion Rate * New Bookings) + (Installed Base * Fleet Utilization * Aftermarket Service Pricing) Mix shift towards high-margin aftermarket services and mature, high-volume defense production programs.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence points to a generational opportunity, with a record backlog and massive new contracts providing a decade of revenue visibility.
- Total backlog reached a record $340 billion, up 36% year-over-year.
- Q3 defense book-to-bill ratio was an exceptional 4.57x.
- Full-year 2026 sales guidance was raised to $97.0-$97.5 billion.
- Multi-year munitions contracts provide a decade of revenue visibility.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin reached a five-year peak of 11.8%.
PRIMARY RISK
Persistent supply chain constraints and a major engine reliability issue at Pratt & Whitney could prevent the company from delivering on its record orders, damaging credibility and financials.
- Management expects supply chain disruptions and their negative impacts to continue.
- The GTF engine powder metal issue has caused 'reputational harm'.
- The GTF issue is estimated to have a $0.7 billion cash impact in 2026.
- Munitions production must ramp by 2x to 4x, stressing the supply chain.
- Peer GE Aerospace has a significantly higher operating margin of 18.7%.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Defense Book-to-Bill Ratio | 4.57x for the defense business in Q3 2026 - Accelerating | The dramatic acceleration in the book-to-bill ratio is the result of the company converting several framework agreements into multi-year production contracts for critical munitions. Management highlighted new contracts for Tomahawk (approximately $23 billion) and AMRAAM (over $14 billion) as the primary drivers of the nearly $59 billion in defense awards during the quarter. |
| Total Backlog | $340 billion as of the end of Q3 2026 - Accelerating | The company's backlog has reached another record level, driven by robust global demand across both commercial aerospace and defense. The significant sequential jump in Q3 reflects the massive defense awards for munitions programs. |
| PW1.1 thousand MRO Output Growth | up 36% year-over-year (Q3 2026) | Tracks the rate of maintenance, repair, and overhaul activity for the GTF engine fleet. Strong growth is critical to resolving in-service fleet issues and driving high-margin aftermarket revenue. |
Backlog Boom vs. Execution Bottleneck
BULL VIEW
Bulls focus on the unprecedented demand signal, arguing the record $340 billion backlog and 4.57x defense book-to-bill guarantee a multi-year growth cycle that will overwhelm any near-term operational friction.
CORE TENSION
Can the historic demand surge, with a $340B backlog, overcome persistent supply chain bottlenecks and the ongoing Pratt & Whitney engine issues which have caused reputational harm?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls on demand, with the backlog growing 18% sequentially. However, management's own commentary confirms the execution risks are real, justifying the market's watchful stance.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue the backlog is a liability until proven otherwise, pointing to acknowledged supply chain constraints and the costly Pratt & Whitney engine fix as evidence that execution risk will cap growth and margins.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
December 11, 2026 | Defense Budget Impasse Watch: Congressional action on FY2027 appropriations bills. A prolonged shutdown or significant cuts to key RTX programs would be negative. |
through December 11, 2026 | Government Funding Deadline Watch: The U.S. government's Continuing Resolution for federal agency funding is set to expire. |
Q4 2026 / Next Earnings Call (Jan 2027) | Failure to Reduce GTF AOGs Watch: Management commentary on AOG levels and MRO output. Any reversal of the downward trend would signal execution problems. |
early next year | GTF Engine Upgrade Rollout Watch: Pratt & Whitney will begin incorporating the GTF Advantage 'hot section plus' upgrade package into MRO visits. |
1/20/2027 - 1/25/2027 | Peer Commercial Aero Weakness Watch: Commentary from GE or Boeing on airline aftermarket spending, fleet utilization, or new order deferrals, which could signal a downturn. |
1/25/2027 | Peer Boeing Earnings Report Watch: Peer Boeing is scheduled to report earnings, providing insight into commercial OEM production rates. |
1/25/2027 | Peer Northrop Grumman Earnings Watch: Peer Northrop Grumman is scheduled to report earnings, offering a comparable for defense program execution. |
No set date | Munitions Ramp-Up Stalls Watch: Updates on material receipts, supplier qualifications, and production output for Tomahawk, AMRAAM, and Standard Missile programs. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-20 | Q3 Results and Guidance Raise Details: RTX reported Q3 sales of $25.0 billion, up 12% organically, and raised its full-year 2026 outlook for adjusted sales, adjusted EPS, and free cash flow. | -0.3% $192.11 -> $191.60 |
2026-09-10 | Venture Investment in Laser Technology Details: RTX Ventures made a minority investment in laser fusion company Xcimer Energy to develop advanced directed energy technology for potential integration into defense systems. | +0.1% $197.55 -> $197.68 |
2026-08-17 | Major Tomahawk Contract Awarded Details: Raytheon was awarded a seven-year contract valued at up to approximately $23 billion to accelerate production of Tomahawk cruise missiles for the U.S. Navy. | +1.1% $222.97 -> $225.49 |
2026-07-23 | Q2 Earnings and Guidance Raise Details: The company reported strong Q2 results with 16% organic sales growth and raised its full-year outlook for sales, EPS, and free cash flow. The stock reacted positively, up 9.0%. | +9.2% $194.23 -> $212.09 |
2026-06-09 | Collins MRO Footprint Expanded Details: Collins Aerospace quadrupled its MRO footprint in Malaysia with a $63 million investment, strengthening regional support for commercial airliners. | -0.7% $178.07 -> $176.82 |
2026-05-06 | Major Radar Order Received Details: Raytheon received its largest order to date for SharpSight radars from Blue Raven, expanding global access to the advanced multi-domain surveillance system. | +2.3% $171.58 -> $175.46 |
2026-04-22 | Q1 Earnings Report and Outlook Details: The company reported Q1 results, with a press report noting strength was overshadowed by commercial aero concerns. The stock had a -8.0% two-day reaction around the April 21 report date. | -4.2% $185.78 -> $177.97 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: RTX trades at roughly 25% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 11% for the S&P 500 (2.3x the market). A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
LMT - Lockheed Martin
Defense Pure-PlayLockheed Martin offers more concentrated exposure to the defense upcycle without the operational issues of RTX's commercial aerospace engine business. It also has a strong position in next-generation hypersonic programs.
GE - GE Aerospace
Commercial Aero LeaderGE Aerospace provides exposure to the resilient commercial aftermarket with superior profitability, boasting an 18.7% operating margin. It directly benefits from the operational challenges facing RTX's competing GTF engine.
A long-cycle industrial powerhouse executing on a dual ramp-up in both commercial aerospace aftermarket and a generational defense procurement cycle.
RTX is capitalizing on two major, concurrent trends. Its commercial aerospace segments (Collins and Pratt & Whitney) are benefiting from a resilient air travel recovery, driving a large and profitable aftermarket business. Simultaneously, its Raytheon defense segment is experiencing a surge in demand due to global geopolitical instability, securing massive, multi-year contracts for its critical missile and air defense systems. The primary challenge is not demand, but execution: ramping up production and navigating a constrained supply chain to deliver on its record $340 billion backlog.
Continued margin expansion at Raytheon as munitions production scales, faster-than-expected reductions in aircraft-on-ground (AOG) for the GTF fleet, and sustained high defense bookings.
Failure to meet production targets due to supply chain or labor issues, significant cuts to U.S. or allied defense budgets for key RTX programs, or a sharp downturn in global air travel impacting aftermarket services.
Short-term fluctuations in quarterly revenue growth rates between segments, given the long-cycle nature of the business and lumpy defense contract awards.
Repricing Catalyst
The successful conversion of massive undefinitized contract actions (UCAs) for munitions into firm, multi-year production contracts, which provides a decade of revenue visibility for the Raytheon segment.
Collins Aerospace
$31.2B TTM (33% of Total) · 28% MarginWhat It Is
Sells technologically advanced aerospace and defense products and aftermarket services to aircraft manufacturers, airlines, governments, and defense contractors. Products include avionics, landing systems, engine nacelles, and complete cabin interiors.
Who Pays & How
Aircraft manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus, along with airlines and governments, pay for integrated systems and aftermarket support to ensure aircraft performance, safety, and reliability.
Competition
Pratt & Whitney
$35.0B TTM (37% of Total) · 14% MarginWhat It Is
Supplies aircraft engines and aftermarket services for commercial, military, and business aviation customers. Key products include the Geared Turbofan (GTF) engine family for commercial aircraft and the F135 engine, which exclusively powers the F-35 fighter jet.
Who Pays & How
Aircraft manufacturers like Airbus, airlines, and governments pay for advanced, fuel-efficient engines and long-term fleet management and maintenance services to power their aircraft fleets.
Competition
Raytheon
$29.9B TTM (32% of Total) · 20% MarginWhat It Is
Provides defensive and offensive systems for government customers, including integrated air and missile defense (Patriot), smart weapons (AMRAAM, Tomahawk), advanced sensors, and space systems.
Who Pays & How
The U.S. Department of War and foreign governments pay for combat-proven systems to address evolving national security threats and replenish inventories.
Competition
RTX — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Aerospace & Defense Resources |
| Defense News |
| FlightGlobal |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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