RTX (RTX)
Market Price (4/14/2026): $201.1 | Market Cap: $270.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
RTX (RTX)
Market Price (4/14/2026): $201.1Market Cap: $270.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.4 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 13 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Cybersecurity, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. | Key risksRTX key risks include [1] the significant multi-billion dollar financial and operational disruption caused by the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine's powdered metal defect. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 11 Bil, FCF LTM is 7.4 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 13 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Cybersecurity, and Advanced Materials. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Key risksRTX key risks include [1] the significant multi-billion dollar financial and operational disruption caused by the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine's powdered metal defect. |
Qualitative Assessment
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1. RTX exceeded Q4 2025 earnings expectations and provided a strong 2026 outlook.
The company reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.55 on January 27, 2026, surpassing analyst consensus estimates by $0.08, or 5.9%. Quarterly revenue reached $24.2 billion, exceeding analyst estimates by 6.6% to 7.8%. Furthermore, RTX projected adjusted sales between $92.0 and $93.0 billion for 2026, representing 5% to 6% organic growth, and an adjusted EPS of $6.60 to $6.80. This strong financial performance and confident forward guidance acted as a significant catalyst, with the stock rising approximately 4.1% in pre-market trading following the announcement.
2. The company secured substantial new contracts and maintained a record backlog.
RTX ended 2025 with a record company backlog of $268 billion, showcasing strong demand and future revenue visibility. Key contract awards in early 2026 included a $3.8 billion modification (part of a larger $6.6 billion award) for Pratt & Whitney's F135 engine production, enhancing near-term revenue visibility. Additionally, RTX secured an $8.41 billion contract enhancement for engineering and support of Standard Missile-3 Block missile variants, significantly increasing the total contract ceiling from $3.33 billion to $11.74 billion.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.2% change in RTX stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 8.0% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 182.79 | 201.41 | 10.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 85,988 | 88,603 | 3.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.7% | 7.6% | -0.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 37.2 | 40.2 | 8.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,343 | 1,345 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.2% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RTX | 10.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | 16.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 11.4% | 54.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 21.2% change in RTX stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 11.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 166.12 | 201.41 | 21.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 83,599 | 88,603 | 6.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.4% | 7.6% | 3.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.2 | 40.2 | 11.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,341 | 1,345 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 21.2% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RTX | 21.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 24.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 12.4% | 52.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 54.6% change in RTX stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 28.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 130.26 | 201.41 | 54.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 80,738 | 88,603 | 9.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.9% | 7.6% | 28.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.4 | 40.2 | 10.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,334 | 1,345 | -0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 54.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RTX | 54.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 37.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 33.2% | 53.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 119.6% change in RTX stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 55.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 91.73 | 201.41 | 119.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 67,074 | 88,603 | 32.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.7% | 7.6% | -1.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.9 | 40.2 | 55.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,466 | 1,345 | 9.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 119.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| RTX | 119.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 29.9% |
| Sector (XLI) | 78.0% | 47.6% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| RTX Return | 23% | 20% | -14% | 41% | 61% | 10% | 217% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 18% | 24% | 10% | 33% | 9% | 171% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 81% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| RTX Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 75% | 75% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 60% | 55% | 58% | 60% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| RTX Max Drawdown | -8% | -4% | -30% | 0% | -1% | 0% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -6% | -17% | -12% | -14% | -10% | -5% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LMT, NOC, BA, GD, GE. See RTX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | RTX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 217 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -52.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 109.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 662 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -28.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 126 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -54.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 118.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 689 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to LMT, NOC, BA, GD, GE
In The Past
RTX's stock fell -33.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/18/2023. A -33.7% loss requires a 50.9% gain to breakeven.
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About RTX (RTX)
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- A combination of GE Aviation (for engines and aircraft parts) and Lockheed Martin (for defense systems).
- The Honeywell of aerospace and defense, supplying a vast array of high-tech components, engines, and systems for commercial and military use.
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- Aerospace Systems: Develops and supports various aerospace products including cabin interiors, communication systems, and airborne intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) systems.
- Aircraft Engines: Supplies engines for commercial, military, business jet, and general aviation aircraft.
- Auxiliary Power Units (APUs): Produces and services auxiliary power units for military and commercial applications.
- Integrated Space, Communication, and Sensor Systems: Provides complex systems for space, communication, and sensor-based missions.
- Cyber and Software Solutions: Offers specialized solutions in cybersecurity and software development.
- Air and Missile Defense Systems: Designs and sustains integrated systems for defending against air and missile threats.
- Defensive and Combat Solutions: Delivers solutions for various defensive and combat operations.
- Radar Systems: Manufactures land-based and sea-based radar systems.
- Command, Control, Communications, and Intelligence (C3I) Solutions: Provides comprehensive solutions for military command, control, communications, and intelligence.
- Naval and Undersea Sensor Solutions: Develops advanced sensor technologies for naval and underwater environments.
- Aerospace Aftermarket Services: Offers spare parts, repair, engineering support, and training for aerospace and defense products.
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Raytheon Technologies Corporation (RTX) primarily serves government entities and various commercial companies worldwide. The company does not primarily sell to individuals.
Major Customers:
- Government Entities: RTX provides systems and services to commercial, military, and government customers globally. This includes the U.S. government (such as intelligence, defense, and federal agencies) and foreign government customers for integrated space, communication, and sensor systems; integrated air and missile defense systems; defensive and combat solutions; radars; and command, control, communications, and intelligence solutions.
- Commercial Companies: This category encompasses a range of commercial enterprises that procure aerospace and defense products and services from RTX. These include:
- Aircraft Manufacturers: Customers who integrate RTX's aerospace products, such as aircraft engines and various cabin interior, communications, and aviation systems, into their aircraft.
- Airlines: Commercial and general aviation customers who purchase aircraft engines, aftermarket services, and various aerospace systems for their fleets.
- Commercial Space Operations & Other Commercial Customers: Companies involved in commercial space operations, as well as other commercial entities requiring integrated space, communication, sensor systems, cyber, and software solutions.
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Christopher T. Calio
Chairman & Chief Executive Officer
Christopher T. Calio was appointed Chief Executive Officer of RTX in May 2024 and became Chairman in April 2025. He joined the former United Technologies Corporation (UTC) in 2005 and has over 10 years of leadership experience within the company's aerospace businesses. Prior to his current role, Calio served as President of Pratt & Whitney, and before that, President of Pratt & Whitney's Commercial Engines business from January 2017 through 2019. He was also the chief of staff for the Chairman and CEO of United Technologies. Notably, Calio led Pratt & Whitney's Commercial Engines Legal Department during the development and launch of the Airbus A320neo program and played a key role in the acquisition of Rolls-Royce's share in the International Aero Engines collaboration. He also served as Vice President and General Counsel for UTC Aerospace Systems, now known as Collins Aerospace. He holds a bachelor's degree in political science from Trinity College, and both an MBA and law degree from the University of Connecticut.
Neil G. Mitchill, Jr.
Chief Financial Officer
Neil G. Mitchill, Jr. serves as the Chief Financial Officer of RTX, a position he was appointed to in April 2021. His responsibilities include financial reporting and controls, planning and analysis, investor relations, internal audit, tax, and treasury. Mitchill joined United Technologies Corp. (UTC) in 2014 as Vice President of Global Financial Services. He progressed through various financial leadership roles at UTC, including Corporate Vice President, Controller in 2015, and Vice President and CFO of Pratt & Whitney in 2016. In 2019, he became the acting Senior Vice President and CFO of UTC, a role he held until the merger with Raytheon Company in 2020, after which he was appointed Corporate Vice President, Financial Planning & Analysis and Investor Relations for Raytheon Technologies. Before joining UTC, Mitchill spent 17 years at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, where he was a lead partner and provided assurance and business advisory services for global industrial products companies. He is a certified public accountant and holds a bachelor's degree in accountancy from Providence College.
Shane G. Eddy
President, Pratt & Whitney
Shane G. Eddy was appointed President of Pratt & Whitney, an RTX business, on March 1, 2022. With over 35 years of experience in the aerospace industry, he leads a business focused on designing, manufacturing, and servicing aircraft engines and auxiliary power units. Prior to his current role, Eddy was Pratt & Whitney's Senior Vice President and Chief Operations Officer. He joined Pratt & Whitney in 2016 from GE Aviation, where he served as Vice President and General Manager for Turboshaft/Turboprop Engines. Before his time at GE, Eddy spent six years at Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation, holding positions as Senior Vice President, Operations, and later as President, Commercial Systems and Services. His career also includes 14 years at Bell Helicopter Textron, where he held leadership roles such as Executive Director, Commercial Helicopter Programs, and Senior Vice President, Customer Support & Chief Services Officer. Eddy holds an MBA from Concordia University, Quebec, and an undergraduate degree from Canadore College, Ontario.
Vincent M. Campisi
Chief Digital Officer and Senior Vice President of Enterprise Services
Vincent M. Campisi is the Chief Digital Officer and leader of the Enterprise Services division at RTX, directing the company's digital strategy and global business services. He joined RTX (then United Technologies Corporation) in 2016, bringing 25 years of experience in the aerospace and defense, energy, financial services, and technology sectors. Before joining UTC, Campisi held multiple leadership roles at General Electric starting in 1999, including Chief Operating Officer at GE Digital, Chief Information Officer and Quality Leader at GE Vernova, general manager for cloud services, and CIO for GE Software. His work focuses on strengthening cybersecurity, maximizing productivity through information technology, and implementing enhanced software and data analytics practices. He earned a Bachelor's Degree in Business Administration and Management from the University at Albany.
Phil Jasper
President, Raytheon
Phil Jasper was appointed President of Raytheon, an RTX business, on January 4, 2024, and is a member of the RTX senior leadership team. With 31 years of experience in the aerospace and defense industry, he is responsible for leading Raytheon's franchises in missile defense, air-to-air missiles, fire control radars, and electro-optical/infra-red systems. In 2018, Jasper was named president of Collins Aerospace's Mission Systems strategic business unit, where he was responsible for delivering military, government, and civil solutions globally. He has a background in transitioning commercial aerospace technologies to the defense sector, contributing to innovations in battlefield communications and networking solutions, and designing, developing, and integrating mission-specific capabilities for military aircraft.
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Key Risks to RTX Business
- Pratt & Whitney GTF Engine Crisis: Raytheon Technologies faces significant financial charges due to the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbofan (GTF) engine crisis, which includes airline compensation and expedited maintenance. This issue also carries the risk of long-term market share erosion on future narrow-body aircraft projects.
- Raytheon Margin Dilution on Fixed-Price Production Increase: The company is experiencing operating margin compression within its Raytheon segments despite revenue growth. This is attributed to lower-margin fixed-price contracts replacing more mature, high-margin programs, leading to potential negative earnings per share revisions. RTX's 10-K filing identifies cost overruns on fixed-price contracts as a primary business risk.
- Dependence on Government Contracts and Geopolitical/Regulatory Changes: A substantial portion of RTX's revenue is derived from contracts with the U.S. government and other international governments. This reliance exposes the company to risks associated with shifts in defense spending, budgetary constraints, political factors, and the potential for contract terminations or delays. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions, regulatory changes, trade policies, sanctions, and export controls can significantly impact RTX's global operations and international sales.
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nullAI Analysis | Feedback
Raytheon Technologies Corporation (RTX) operates across diverse and substantial addressable markets within the aerospace and defense sectors. The estimated market sizes for its primary products and services are outlined below:
Collins Aerospace Systems
- Aircraft Cabin Interior Market: The global aircraft cabin interior market was valued at approximately USD 41.10 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 83.80 billion by 2034.
- Aircraft Communication Systems Market: The global aircraft communication system market size was valued at USD 18.50 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 38.70 billion by 2034.
- Aerospace Electronics Market: The global aerospace electronics market size was approximately USD 127.20 billion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to USD 237.33 billion by 2035.
Pratt & Whitney
- Aircraft Engine Market: The global aircraft engine market size is expected to be valued at USD 118.53 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach around USD 251.79 billion by 2035.
- Military Aircraft Engine Market: The global military aircraft engine market size was valued at around USD 34.29 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 67.19 billion by 2032.
- Aerospace and Military Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) Market: The global aerospace and military APU market is estimated at approximately USD 4.72 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach about USD 7.02 billion by 2035.
Raytheon Intelligence & Space
- Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) Market: The global Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) market was valued at approximately USD 42 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach around USD 71.2 billion by 2034.
- Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) Market: The global C4ISR market was valued at USD 126.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 216 billion by 2034.
- Defense Electronics Market: The global defense electronics market was valued at USD 175.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 302.8 billion by 2034.
Raytheon Missiles & Defense
- Air Defense System Market: The global air defense system market was valued at USD 46.3 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow to USD 80.1 billion by 2034.
- Missile Defense System Market: The global missile defense system market was valued at USD 31.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 54.2 billion by 2033.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for RTX over the next 2-3 years:
- Conversion of Record Backlog and Sustained Demand: RTX boasts a record backlog of $268 billion as of January 2026, which represents nearly three years of future revenue already under contract. The company's focus on operational execution and converting this robust backlog into realized sales is a primary driver of sustained revenue growth.
- Growth in Commercial Aerospace Aftermarket: The recovery in global commercial air traffic and increasing flight hours are significantly boosting demand for commercial aerospace aftermarket services, including spare parts, maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO). This trend is expected to drive substantial revenue growth for Collins Aerospace and Pratt & Whitney segments, with management anticipating approximately 10% growth in the total commercial aftermarket for 2025.
- Increased Global Defense Spending and International Expansion: Escalating geopolitical tensions worldwide are leading to higher defense budgets, particularly in Europe, which is driving strong demand for RTX's advanced defense systems. International customers account for a significant portion of RTX's defense backlog, and continued large-scale contract wins for integrated air and missile defense systems, such as Patriot and LTAMDS, are expected to fuel revenue growth.
- Advancements in Product Development and Manufacturing Efficiency: RTX is investing in new capabilities, expanding production capacity, and leveraging digital factory initiatives to enhance productivity and meet growing customer needs. This includes a focus on developing next-generation technologies like hypersonics and increasing the volume of key defense systems and commercial engine deliveries (e.g., GTF and F135 engines), which will contribute to higher sales volumes and a favorable program mix.
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Capital Allocation Decisions (Last 3-5 Years)
Share Repurchases
- RTX authorized a $6 billion share repurchase program in December 2022, which superseded a prior authorization from December 2021.
- In October 2023, the company initiated a $10 billion accelerated share repurchase (ASR) program, as part of its commitment to return $36-$37 billion to shareholders through 2025.
- RTX repurchased $12.9 billion of shares in 2023 and $3.7 billion in 2024, contributing to over $33 billion returned to shareholders since the merger.
Outbound Investments
- Raytheon (an RTX business) launched RTX Ventures in April 2022, a new investment arm focused on strategic investments in companies developing transformational aerospace and defense technologies, making an initial investment in hypersonic aircraft developer Hermeus.
- The company made several acquisitions, including Seakr Engineering in September 2021 for advanced spacecraft electronics and NORSS in July 2022 for space services.
- In 2025, RTX invested $85 million across 19 companies through RTX Ventures, and in May 2024, Raytheon invested in UVAD Technologies for a supersonic Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle target.
Capital Expenditures
- RTX reported capital expenditures of approximately $2.4 billion in 2023 and $2.6 billion in 2024, with estimated CapEx for 2025 at $2.6 billion and projected CapEx of $3.1 billion for 2026.
- Total investments in capital expenditures and company/customer-funded research and development exceeded $10 billion in both 2024 and 2025, with a similar amount projected for 2026.
- The primary focus of these expenditures includes expanding production capacity, modernizing infrastructure, and advancing technologies in commercial aerospace and defense, such as missile and sensor production facilities.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| RTX Stock Hands $35 Bil Back - Worth a Look? | 04/14/2026 | |
| 3 Forces That Could Shake RTX Stock | 03/07/2026 | |
| RTX Stock Surged 60%, Here's Why | 03/03/2026 | |
| Why RTX Stock Jumped 60%? | 01/28/2026 | |
| RTX Stock Surged 70%, Here's Why | 01/10/2026 | |
| The Next Big Rally in RTX Stock Could Start Like This | 01/08/2026 | |
| RTX Earnings Notes | 12/28/2026 | |
| How RTX Stock Gained 60% | 12/24/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| RTX Stock Hands $35 Bil Back – Worth a Look? | 04/14/2026 | |
| Better Value & Growth: RTX Leads ATI Stock | 03/19/2026 | |
| The Hidden Dangers Facing RTX Stock | 03/07/2026 | |
| RTX Tops ATI Stock on Price & Potential | 03/04/2026 | |
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | 02/18/2026 |
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to RTX.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03312026 | NSP | Insperity | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312026 | TNC | Tennant | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | HURN | Huron Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | TRU | TransUnion | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.2% | 5.2% | 0.0% |
| 06302020 | RTX | RTX | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.8% | 42.2% | -14.4% |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 326.33 |
| Mkt Cap | 156.9 |
| Rev LTM | 63,799 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,544 |
| FCF LTM | 5,434 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 4,372 |
| CFO LTM | 6,828 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 5,396 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 9.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 11.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 8.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 156.9 |
| P/S | 2.1 |
| P/EBIT | 23.0 |
| P/E | 33.1 |
| P/CFO | 23.0 |
| Total Yield | 4.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.1% |
| 3M Rtn | 0.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 8.0% |
| 12M Rtn | 37.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 55.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 11.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -12.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Collins Aerospace | 72,372 | 72,085 | 70,404 | 67,564 | 68,701 |
| Raytheon | 44,936 | 44,929 | 45,666 | ||
| Pratt & Whitney | 44,307 | 40,723 | 36,205 | 33,414 | 32,780 |
| Corporate, eliminations and other | 1,246 | 4,132 | 6,589 | 10,115 | 9,762 |
| Raytheon Intelligence & Space | 21,545 | 21,573 | |||
| Raytheon Missiles & Defense | 28,766 | 29,337 | |||
| Total | 162,861 | 161,869 | 158,864 | 161,404 | 162,153 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $201.41 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 270.9 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/02/1970 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -5.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $200.39 | $175.15 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | 0.5% | 15.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 25.6% | 25.4% |
| Downside Capture | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Upside Capture | 39.71 | 68.39 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 13.2% | 18.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.29 | 0.10 | 0.34 | 0.51 | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| Up Beta | -3.28 | -0.60 | -0.89 | 0.06 | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| Down Beta | -0.12 | -0.05 | 0.37 | 0.80 | 0.85 | 0.62 |
| Up Capture | 71% | 21% | 79% | 72% | 57% | 24% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 21 | 34 | 70 | 144 | 399 |
| Down Capture | 77% | 33% | 38% | 30% | 40% | 54% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 13 | 21 | 29 | 56 | 106 | 345 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RTX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTX | 59.8% | 25.3% | 1.81 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 37.9% | 15.6% | 1.86 | 41.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.7% | 13.7% | 1.06 | 18.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 53.7% | 27.6% | 1.55 | 2.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 25.2% | 16.2% | 1.37 | 13.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.8% | 14.0% | 0.76 | 15.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -11.7% | 43.0% | -0.17 | 13.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RTX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTX | 23.8% | 23.5% | 0.88 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.3% | 17.3% | 0.60 | 57.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 11.1% | 17.0% | 0.50 | 42.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.8% | 17.8% | 1.01 | 9.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.7% | 18.8% | 0.51 | 21.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 37.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 4.6% | 56.6% | 0.30 | 16.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with RTX | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTX | 15.8% | 27.4% | 0.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.1% | 19.9% | 0.62 | 73.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.9% | 0.67 | 59.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.2% | 15.9% | 0.74 | 2.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.8% | 17.6% | 0.42 | 27.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.22 | 53.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 11.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/27/2026 | 3.7% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| 10/21/2025 | 7.7% | 11.5% | 8.7% |
| 7/22/2025 | -1.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| 4/22/2025 | -9.8% | -1.0% | 8.8% |
| 1/28/2025 | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.3% |
| 10/22/2024 | -0.3% | -0.4% | -5.0% |
| 7/25/2024 | 8.2% | 12.1% | 13.2% |
| 4/23/2024 | -0.2% | 0.9% | 4.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 14 | 17 |
| # Negative | 13 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 3.3% | 3.7% | 7.1% |
| Median Negative | -1.6% | -4.2% | -5.0% |
| Max Positive | 8.2% | 12.1% | 25.5% |
| Max Negative | -10.2% | -9.4% | -11.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/03/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/22/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/05/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/26/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Revenue | 92.00 Bil | 92.50 Bil | 93.00 Bil | 6.6% | Higher New | Actual: 86.75 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Revenue Growth | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | -35.3% | -3.0% | Lower New | Actual: 8.5% for 2025 |
| 2026 EPS | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 8.9% | Higher New | Actual: 6.15 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow | 8.25 Bil | 8.50 Bil | 8.75 Bil | 17.2% | Higher New | Actual: 7.25 Bil for 2025 | |
Prior: Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/21/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Revenue | 86.50 Bil | 86.75 Bil | 87.00 Bil | 1.9% | Raised | Guidance: 85.12 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Revenue Growth | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 30.8% | 2.0% | Raised | Guidance: 6.5% for 2025 |
| 2025 EPS | 6.1 | 6.15 | 6.2 | 4.7% | Raised | Guidance: 5.88 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Free Cash Flow | 7.00 Bil | 7.25 Bil | 7.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.25 Bil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calio, Christopher T | Chairman, President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 10292025 | 178.32 | 4,813 | 858,278 | 14,534,914 | Form |
| 2 | Mitchill, Neil G Jr | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 10282025 | 180.15 | 4,849 | 873,528 | 10,728,775 | Form |
| 3 | Atkinson, Tracy A | Direct | Sell | 10282025 | 178.91 | 2,800 | 500,948 | 729,953 | Form | |
| 4 | Eddy, Shane G | President, P&W | Direct | Sell | 8282025 | 159.79 | 25,968 | Form | ||
| 5 | Brunk, Troy D | President, Collins Aerospace | Direct | Sell | 8132025 | 155.20 | 7,654 | 1,187,908 | 2,551,765 | Form |
RTX Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The calculated probability-adjusted skew of 2.33x is highly attractive and falls into Tier 1. The investment thesis is supported by the powerful combination of a strong secular tailwind ('Rising Tide') and company-specific execution on its record backlog. While the valuation is at a premium and the competitive landscape is contested, the sheer scale of the backlog provides a durable multi-year growth runway that appears to outweigh the quantifiable risks from the GTF engine issues, justifying an OVERWEIGHT rating.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityRTX's revenue is driven by large, long-term 'projects' in commercial aerospace and defense, which are subject to cyclical capital expenditure trends. The business model relies on securing major contracts and is sensitive to global GDP, air travel demand, and geopolitical defense spending cycles, aligning it with the 'Cyclical' archetype.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis for RTX is its ability to convert its record $268 billion backlog into revenue and free cash flow, while simultaneously benefiting from a favorable mix shift towards higher-margin commercial aftermarket services.
- Record backlog of $268B, up 23% year-over-year, providing approximately 3 years of revenue visibility.
- Full-year 2025 book-to-bill ratio of 1.56x, indicating orders are significantly outpacing revenue generation.
- Commercial aftermarket sales grew 18% in FY2025, outpacing original equipment growth and driving a favorable margin mix.
- Company guidance for FY26 projects 5% to 6% organic growth, driven by strong backlog execution.
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant friction on the stock is the ongoing financial impact and operational uncertainty stemming from the Pratt & Whitney GTF powdered metal issue. This 'legacy anchor' creates a direct cash drain and introduces risk to management's execution credibility.
- Management has guided for ~$700M in customer compensation cash outflows in 2026 related to the GTF issue.
- The cumulative cash outflow for this issue is expected to reach ~$2.8B by the end of 2026.
- This is classified as a Type 3 (Operational/Execution) risk, a self-inflicted issue that raises questions about internal quality control and program management.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Book-to-Bill Ratio | Sustainably > 1.2x | This is the leading indicator of future revenue growth and demand strength. A drop below this level would signal a potential peak in the order cycle. |
| Pratt & Whitney Segment Operating Margin | Sequential quarterly improvement | This segment is the key driver of the high-margin aftermarket thesis. Margin expansion here validates the core earnings growth story. |
| GTF-related Cash Outflow Guidance | No upward revisions from the current ~$700M forecast for 2026 | This is the primary friction point. Any increase signals the problem is worse than communicated, directly impacting free cash flow and management credibility. |
Backlog Execution vs. 'Legacy Anchor' Cash Drag
BULL VIEW
The massive backlog and 1.56 book-to-bill ratio signal accelerating growth and pricing power that will overwhelm any specific program's costs.
CORE TENSION
Can RTX convert its record $268B backlog into free cash flow faster than legacy issues, like the GTF engine costs, consume that cash?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The record $268B backlog, up 23% YoY, and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.56x for FY2025 demonstrate that new, profitable business is significantly outpacing current challenges.
BEAR VIEW
The ongoing ~$700M annual cash outflow for GTF compensation and slowing growth at Collins Aerospace signal significant execution risk and potential margin pressure.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Guidance on GTF powdered metal cash outflows for 2026. Current estimate is ~$700M. |
Ongoing (Quarterly Earnings) | Aerospace Supply Chain Status Updates Watch: Commentary on parts shortages (castings, forgings) impacting Pratt & Whitney or Collins delivery schedules. |
This Quarter | Major Airline Earnings Reports (e.g., Delta, United) Watch: Airlines' 2026 and 2027 Capital Expenditure (CapEx) guidance and passenger growth forecasts. |
July 20-24, 2026 | Farnborough International Airshow Watch: Value of firm orders and memoranda of understanding for Pratt & Whitney engines vs. competitor GE. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-01 | Cluster Insider Selling Disclosed Details: Data indicates coordinated open market sales by top executives including the CEO, CFO, and heads of all three business segments over the prior months. | Muted (-0.48%) $156.26 -> $155.50 |
2025-08-26 | Jefferies Industrials Conference Details: Company executives presented, providing an update on business conditions and strategy which supported positive stock performance. | Rose significantly by 2.11% $155.65 -> $158.94 |
2025-09-10 | Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference Details: RTX leadership presented at an investor conference, likely reaffirming strategy and outlook which was positively received by the market. | Modest 1.71% gain $154.38 -> $157.02 |
2025-10-21 | Q3 2025 Earnings Details: RTX reported strong Q3 results, beating estimates with sales up 12% YoY, and raised its full-year 2025 outlook for sales and EPS. | Surged +7.67% $160.07 -> $172.35 |
2025-12-23 | Major Contract Win Details: Raytheon awarded a $1.7 billion contract to supply Spain with four Patriot air and missile defense systems, the country's largest-ever Patriot order. | Flat (0.04%) $185.68 -> $185.76 |
2026-01-27 | Q4 2025 Earnings & FY2026 Outlook Details: RTX reported a beat on revenue and EPS, a record $268B backlog, and provided a robust 2026 outlook. | Rose significantly by 3.68% $194.13 -> $201.28 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL
Volatility is moderate and compressing. Although the fundamental sentiment is Bullish with high visibility, the stock's expensive valuation prevents a more aggressive sizing. This fits the 'Growth at a Price' scenario.
Diversification Alternatives
GD
INDUSTRYGD offers pure-play defense exposure with less complexity from commercial aerospace cycles and avoids the specific GTF engine issue affecting RTX's cash flow.
TDG
INDUSTRYTransDigm possesses a higher-margin, more resilient business model focused on proprietary, sole-source aftermarket parts, offering superior pricing power and cash conversion compared to RTX.
RTX is executing a sector rotation from a defense-dominant contractor to a balanced Aerospace & Defense powerhouse, driven by a record $161 billion commercial backlog and a strong recovery in global air travel.
Filter all news through the lens of backlog execution and margin expansion, particularly in the high-growth commercial aerospace segments.
Commercial aftermarket sales growth >+15% YoY; Book-to-bill ratio >1.2 in both Collins and Pratt & Whitney; Announcements of increased production rates from Airbus and Boeing; Resolution of GTF engine reliability issues ahead of schedule.
Slowing air traffic growth (RPKs); Delays in new aircraft deliveries from Boeing/Airbus impacting OE revenue; A book-to-bill ratio below 1.0 in the Raytheon (defense) segment for consecutive quarters; Increased financial provisions for GTF engine compensations.
Single-quarter fluctuations in the defense budget; Individual international defense contract wins/losses unless they represent a major strategic shift; Short-term volatility in oil prices impacting airline profitability.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the market's recognition of RTX's record $268 billion backlog, with a significant 1.56 book-to-bill ratio for the full year 2025. This provides exceptional multi-year revenue visibility. The commercial aerospace recovery, with aftermarket sales up 18% in 2025, is a key driver of high-margin revenue growth that is expected to continue.
Pratt & Whitney Aircraft Engines
$32.9B TTM (37% of Total) · 8.2% MarginWhat It Is
Commercial and military aircraft engines, including the Geared Turbofan (GTF) engine family for Airbus A320neo, and the F135 engine for the F-35 fighter jet.
Who Pays & How
Airlines (e.g., Delta, United) and aircraft manufacturers (e.g., Airbus) pay for engines and long-term service agreements (aftermarket). The U.S. Government and its allies pay for military engines. Switching costs are extremely high due to deep integration with the airframe, creating a multi-decade revenue stream from parts and services.
Competition
Collins Aerospace Systems
$30.2B TTM (34% of Total) · 16.2% MarginWhat It Is
A wide range of aerospace products including avionics, landing gear, wheels and brakes, aerostructures, and cabin interiors.
Who Pays & How
Aircraft manufacturers (Boeing, Airbus) and airlines pay for components on new aircraft and for aftermarket spares and repairs. High switching costs are due to certification requirements and deep system integration.
Competition
Raytheon Defense Systems
$28.0B TTM (29% of Total) · 11.6% MarginWhat It Is
Missile defense systems (Patriot), advanced sensors and radars, precision weapons (Tomahawk, AMRAAM), and command and control systems.
Who Pays & How
The U.S. Department of Defense and allied governments pay for critical defense capabilities through long-term development and production contracts.
Competition
External Quote Links
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