Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%
 
0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
1 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MOG-A Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Moog (MOG-A) stock moved by approximately 20% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025: 1. Record Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results. Moog Inc. reported record fourth-quarter 2025 sales of over $1 billion and significant increases in diluted net earnings per share, with sales increasing 14% and diluted net earnings per share rising 53% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. For the full fiscal year 2025, sales increased 7% and diluted net earnings per share rose 14% compared to fiscal 2024.

2. Strong Earnings Per Share and Net Income Growth. The company's EPS rose 50.5% to $2.10 in Q4 2025 from $1.39 in Q4 2024, and net income strengthened by 49.0% to $66.45 million from $44.61 million in the comparable period.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MOG-A Return-6%3%10%67%37%17%183%
Peers Return-13%-2%-3%14%-2%47%36%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MOG-A Win Rate58%50%58%75%58%50% 
Peers Win Rate17%8%10%12%5%31% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MOG-A Max Drawdown-59%-13%-12%0%-4%-23% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-5%-7%-0%-2%-0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMOG-AS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven407 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-63.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven172.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1055 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven31.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven106 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-62.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven169.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1527 days1480 days

Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC


In The Past

Moog's stock fell -26.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/1/2021. A -26.0% loss requires a 35.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Moog (MOG-A)

Better Bets than Moog (MOG-A)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MOG-A. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Moog

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MOG-AFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameMoog Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Mkt Price235.0018.5551.72-29.503.5429.50
Mkt Cap7.4-1.8---4.6
Rev LTM3,734101831--4466
Op Inc LTM389-21150---921
FCF LTM39-19951---915
FCF 3Y Avg-11-8---11-11
CFO LTM188-16574---932
CFO 3Y Avg144-22---1022

Growth & Margins

MOG-AFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameMoog Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Rev Chg LTM4.8%-6.2%--166.4%6.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg7.7%-19.5%--94.3%19.5%
Rev Chg Q7.4%-3.8%--330.2%7.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.8%-0.9%--35.8%1.8%
Op Mgn LTM10.4%-209.3%6.0%---209.1%-101.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.1%-2.2%---699.5%2.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.0%-1.7%--86.7%1.7%
CFO/Rev LTM5.0%-164.1%8.9%---212.3%-79.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.0%-2.5%---716.7%2.5%
FCF/Rev LTM1.0%-197.5%6.1%---216.3%-98.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.4%-0.8%---777.8%-0.4%

Valuation

MOG-AFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameMoog Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
Mkt Cap7.4-1.8---4.6
P/S1.5-1.9---1.7
P/EBIT16.8-32.3---24.6
P/E27.0--523.2----248.1
P/CFO30.3-22.0---26.1
Total Yield4.3%--0.2%---2.1%
Dividend Yield0.6%-0.0%---0.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-0.6%--0.5%----0.5%
D/E0.2-0.2---0.2
Net D/E0.2-0.2---0.2

Returns

MOG-AFLYATROAPEXBETADFSCMedian
NameMoog Firefly .AstronicsAPEX Glo.BETA Tec.DEFSEC T. 
1M Rtn13.8%-22.0%6.1%---10.6%-2.2%
3M Rtn21.9%-58.2%40.5%--19.6%20.8%
6M Rtn27.9%-61.1%---44.5%
12M Rtn8.3%-215.2%---111.7%
3Y Rtn172.0%-466.5%---319.2%
1M Excs Rtn13.9%-22.0%6.1%---10.6%-2.2%
3M Excs Rtn14.3%-62.0%27.1%--13.0%13.7%
6M Excs Rtn13.2%-46.4%---29.8%
12M Excs Rtn-6.9%-206.7%---99.9%
3Y Excs Rtn104.1%-493.7%---298.9%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Price Behavior

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025725202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024124202510-Q 12/28/2024
93020241127202410-K 9/28/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023126202410-Q 12/30/2023
93020231114202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023428202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022203202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-K 10/1/2022
6302022729202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022429202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021128202210-Q 1/1/2022
93020211115202110-K 10/2/2021