Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.1%, Dist 3Y High is -2.1%
 
0 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 34%
1 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.1%, Dist 3Y High is -2.1%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

MOG-A Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Between August 31, 2025, and December 18, 2025, Moog (MOG-A) stock experienced a significant increase, largely driven by strong financial performance and strategic advancements. 1. Record Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results. Moog reported record fiscal third-quarter 2025 net sales of $971 million, representing a 7% increase, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.37, a 24% rise from the prior year, indicating robust business growth and simplified operations. 2. Strong Fourth Quarter 2025 Performance and Positive 2026 Guidance. The company reported record fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results, with net sales reaching $1,049.14 million, and issued strong fiscal 2026 guidance, reflecting continued operational improvements and confidence in future performance.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
MOG-A Return-6%3%10%67%37%25%205%
Peers Return11%6%2%41%33%34%203%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
MOG-A Win Rate58%50%58%75%58%58% 
Peers Win Rate55%52%47%60%63%60% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
MOG-A Max Drawdown-59%-13%-12%0%-4%-23% 
Peers Max Drawdown-51%-12%-20%-6%-4%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: PH, CW, WWD, TDG, HON.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMOG-AS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-26.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven407 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-63.4%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven172.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,055 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven31.9%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven106 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-62.9%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven169.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1,527 days1,480 days

Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC


In The Past

Moog's stock fell -26.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/1/2021. A -26.0% loss requires a 35.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Moog (MOG-A)

Better Bets than Moog (MOG-A)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to MOG-A. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
19.8%19.8%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.2%2.2%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.9%5.9%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.2%4.2%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
1.5%1.5%0.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Moog

Peers to compare with:

Financials

MOG-APHCWWWDTDGHONMedian
NameMoog Parker H.Curtiss-.Woodward TransDigmHoneywel. 
Mkt Price243.72863.19533.58287.851,261.64199.89410.72
Mkt Cap6.6109.220.015.176.7127.048.3
Rev LTM3,86120,0303,3763,5678,83040,6706,345
Op Inc LTM4104,1376184794,1887,6922,377
FCF LTM1283,3855173401,8166,1641,166
FCF 3Y Avg463,0814693051,6445,2121,057
CFO LTM2733,8145924712,0387,4851,315
CFO 3Y Avg2043,4885254061,8196,3361,172

Growth & Margins

MOG-APHCWWWDTDGHONMedian
NameMoog Parker H.Curtiss-.Woodward TransDigmHoneywel. 
Rev Chg LTM7.0%0.2%9.5%7.3%11.2%7.5%7.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg8.3%7.4%11.1%14.6%17.7%5.2%9.7%
Rev Chg Q13.9%3.7%8.8%16.5%11.5%7.0%10.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM3.4%0.9%2.1%4.1%2.9%1.7%2.5%
Op Mgn LTM10.6%20.7%18.3%13.4%47.4%18.9%18.6%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.4%19.1%17.6%11.9%45.6%19.5%18.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.1%0.2%0.2%1.1%1.1%-0.9%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM7.1%19.0%17.5%13.2%23.1%18.4%18.0%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg5.6%17.5%16.9%12.3%23.2%16.4%16.7%
FCF/Rev LTM3.3%16.9%15.3%9.5%20.6%15.2%15.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg1.2%15.5%15.2%9.3%21.0%13.5%14.3%

Valuation

MOG-APHCWWWDTDGHONMedian
NameMoog Parker H.Curtiss-.Woodward TransDigmHoneywel. 
Mkt Cap6.6109.220.015.176.7127.048.3
P/S1.74.86.04.28.73.34.5
P/EBIT-20.531.8--15.220.5
P/E28.026.343.734.337.021.831.1
P/CFO24.125.134.332.137.617.928.6
Total Yield4.1%4.7%2.4%3.3%15.3%6.8%4.4%
Dividend Yield0.6%0.9%0.1%0.4%12.6%2.2%0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.3%4.0%--4.0%4.0%
D/E-0.10.1--0.30.1
Net D/E-0.10.0--0.20.1

Returns

MOG-APHCWWWDTDGHONMedian
NameMoog Parker H.Curtiss-.Woodward TransDigmHoneywel. 
1M Rtn24.5%5.1%-1.8%10.8%-5.5%1.9%3.5%
3M Rtn24.6%17.1%7.3%21.3%-1.1%0.7%12.2%
6M Rtn40.5%32.9%15.4%20.7%-4.7%-3.4%18.1%
12M Rtn23.5%30.9%46.7%67.6%5.8%-7.1%27.2%
3Y Rtn201.5%213.2%225.6%220.5%143.7%7.8%207.4%
1M Excs Rtn23.8%4.4%-2.6%10.0%-6.3%1.2%2.8%
3M Excs Rtn20.8%13.1%2.8%18.7%-3.3%0.1%8.0%
6M Excs Rtn28.1%20.6%3.0%8.3%-17.1%-15.8%5.7%
12M Excs Rtn9.8%18.7%34.6%54.1%-4.0%-15.9%14.3%
3Y Excs Rtn124.2%134.1%148.8%138.6%70.4%-63.0%129.2%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Space and Defense1,018947872799770
Industrial991983907892909
Military Aircraft812720   
Commercial Aircraft788669   
Aircraft Controls  1,2561,1611,206
Total3,6093,3193,0362,8522,885


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Space and Defense127968788102
Commercial Aircraft9984   
Industrial93102728680
Military Aircraft8660   
Aircraft Controls  1249735
Total404343283271216


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Industrial1,0991,0891,0471,0781,102
Space and Defense1,0361,013873840762
Military Aircraft961882   
Commercial Aircraft953802   
Corporate2923424439
Aircraft Controls  1,4701,4711,322
Total4,0783,8083,4323,4333,226


Price Behavior

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
11/21/20258.2%14.0% 
7/25/2025-1.8%4.2%6.5%
4/25/2025-0.2%0.4%6.8%
1/24/2025-7.2%-10.6%-19.9%
11/1/20242.7%18.0%17.8%
8/2/2024-8.3%-3.6%4.2%
4/26/20247.2%3.2%10.8%
1/26/20243.0%0.9%7.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111616
# Negative1388
Median Positive2.7%3.8%7.3%
Median Negative-3.3%-3.0%-4.9%
Max Positive11.7%18.0%24.2%
Max Negative-9.9%-10.6%-19.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251126202510-K 9/27/2025
6302025725202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025425202510-Q 3/29/2025
12312024124202510-Q 12/28/2024
93020241127202410-K 9/28/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024426202410-Q 3/30/2024
12312023126202410-Q 12/30/2023
93020231114202310-K 9/30/2023
6302023728202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023428202310-Q 4/1/2023
12312022203202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221114202210-K 10/1/2022
6302022729202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022429202210-Q 4/2/2022
12312021128202210-Q 1/1/2022