Moog (MOG-A)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $234.535 | Market Cap: $7.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Moog (MOG-A)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $234.535Market Cap: $7.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 34% |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is 0.0%, Dist 3Y High is 0.0% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
MOG-A Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Moog (MOG-A) stock moved by approximately 20% between August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Record Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Financial Results. Moog Inc. reported record fourth-quarter 2025 sales of over $1 billion and significant increases in diluted net earnings per share, with sales increasing 14% and diluted net earnings per share rising 53% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. For the full fiscal year 2025, sales increased 7% and diluted net earnings per share rose 14% compared to fiscal 2024.
2. Strong Earnings Per Share and Net Income Growth. The company's EPS rose 50.5% to $2.10 in Q4 2025 from $1.39 in Q4 2024, and net income strengthened by 49.0% to $66.45 million from $44.61 million in the comparable period.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| MOG-A Return | -6% | 3% | 10% | 67% | 37% | 17% | 183% |
| Peers Return | -13% | -2% | -3% | 14% | -2% | 47% | 36% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| MOG-A Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 58% | 75% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 17% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 5% | 31% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| MOG-A Max Drawdown | -59% | -13% | -12% | 0% | -4% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -5% | -7% | -0% | -2% | -0% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | MOG-A | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 407 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -63.4% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 172.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1055 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -24.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 106 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -62.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 169.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1527 days | 1480 days |
Compare to FLY, ATRO, APEX, BETA, DFSC
In The Past
Moog's stock fell -26.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/1/2021. A -26.0% loss requires a 35.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to MOG-A. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | CNM | Core & Main | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 7.3% | 7.3% | -1.6% |
| 11212025 | VRRM | Verra Mobility | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.3% | 2.3% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | LII | Lennox International | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | ADP | Automatic Data Processing | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.6% | 1.6% | -1.2% |
| 11212025 | CW | Curtiss-Wright | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 2.2% | 2.2% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Moog
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 29.50 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| Rev LTM | 466 |
| Op Inc LTM | 21 |
| FCF LTM | 15 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -11 |
| CFO LTM | 32 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 22 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 19.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -101.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.7% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -79.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -98.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
| P/S | 1.7 |
| P/EBIT | 24.6 |
| P/E | -248.1 |
| P/CFO | 26.1 |
| Total Yield | 2.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 20.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 44.5% |
| 12M Rtn | 111.7% |
| 3Y Rtn | 319.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -2.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 13.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 29.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 99.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 298.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 7252025 | 10-Q 6/28/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4252025 | 10-Q 3/29/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1242025 | 10-Q 12/28/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11272024 | 10-K 9/28/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/29/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4262024 | 10-Q 3/30/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1262024 | 10-Q 12/30/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11142023 | 10-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 10-Q 7/1/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4282023 | 10-Q 4/1/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11142022 | 10-K 10/1/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7292022 | 10-Q 7/2/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4292022 | 10-Q 4/2/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1282022 | 10-Q 1/1/2022 |
| 9302021 | 11152021 | 10-K 10/2/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
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