Tearsheet

Northrop Grumman (NOC)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $563.51 | Market Cap: $80.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Northrop Grumman (NOC)


Market Price (11/18/2025): $563.51
Market Cap: $80.6 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -26%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 3.4 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO LTM is 3.4 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 27%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -26%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

NOC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 11, 2025, Northrop Grumman (NOC) stock experienced a decline, with key contributing factors including:

1. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss and Lowered Full-Year Guidance. Northrop Grumman reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 21, 2025, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) beating consensus estimates. However, revenue of $10.42 billion fell short of analyst expectations, which ranged from $10.68 billion to $10.82 billion. This revenue miss, coupled with the company lowering its full-year 2025 revenue guidance from a previous range of $42.05-$42.25 billion to $41.7-$41.9 billion, contributed to a negative market reaction.

2. Delayed Program Awards and Challenges in Space Division. The company's decision to lower its full-year revenue guidance was primarily attributed to delays in certain program awards and ongoing challenges within its Space Systems division. The Space Systems segment specifically saw a decline in both sales and operating income by 6% and 14%, respectively, largely due to the wind-down of work on restricted space programs.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NOC Return-10%29%43%-13%2%22%80%
Peers Return-6%18%17%12%18%27%117%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%107%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NOC Win Rate58%50%67%42%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate48%58%53%52%67%70% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NOC Max Drawdown-21%-6%-4%-22%-9%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-9%-5%-17%-4%-6% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RTX, LMT, GD, TDG, LHX. See NOC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNOCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-23.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven30.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven656 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-29.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven42.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven564 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-37.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven59.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven226 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-59.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven147.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1691 days1480 days

Compare to RTX, LMT, GD, TDG, LHX


In The Past

Northrop Grumman's stock fell -23.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/31/2022. A -23.5% loss requires a 30.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Northrop Grumman (NOC)

Better Bets than Northrop Grumman (NOC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NOC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.3%-10.3%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-10.2%-10.2%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-3.4%-3.4%-4.8%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.1%-7.1%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-4.2%
NOC_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312018NOCNorthrop GrummanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
31.2%42.7%-2.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-10.3%-10.3%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-10.2%-10.2%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-3.4%-3.4%-4.8%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.1%-7.1%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-4.2%-4.2%-4.2%
NOC_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312018NOCNorthrop GrummanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
31.2%42.7%-2.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Northrop Grumman

Financials

NOCRTXLMTGDTDGLHXMedian
NameNorthrop.RTX Lockheed.General .TransDigmL3Harris. 
Mkt Price563.03175.63470.78341.781,335.77287.69406.28
Mkt Cap80.6235.9109.292.077.653.886.3
Rev LTM40,92885,98873,34951,5098,57921,37346,218
Op Inc LTM4,0988,8155,9975,3273,9772,3664,712
FCF LTM1,8344,7264,5934,8121,9062,1643,378
FCF 3Y Avg2,1375,5475,6343,3951,5771,8282,766
CFO LTM3,4387,9636,3615,7192,1032,5074,578
CFO 3Y Avg3,7918,6917,3864,3501,7412,2084,071

Growth & Margins

NOCRTXLMTGDTDGLHXMedian
NameNorthrop.RTX Lockheed.General .TransDigmL3Harris. 
Rev Chg LTM-0.1%8.8%2.9%11.9%12.8%2.9%5.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg5.2%9.4%4.3%9.9%18.2%8.4%8.9%
Rev Chg Q4.3%11.9%8.8%10.6%9.3%2.4%9.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.1%2.9%2.1%2.5%2.3%0.6%2.2%
Op Mgn LTM10.0%10.3%8.2%10.3%46.4%11.1%10.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.0%7.7%11.0%10.2%45.1%10.4%10.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.2%0.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM8.4%9.3%8.7%11.1%24.5%11.7%10.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg9.4%11.3%10.5%9.3%23.0%11.0%10.8%
FCF/Rev LTM4.5%5.5%6.3%9.3%22.2%10.1%7.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg5.3%7.2%8.0%7.3%20.8%9.2%7.6%

Valuation

NOCRTXLMTGDTDGLHXMedian
NameNorthrop.RTX Lockheed.General .TransDigmL3Harris. 
Mkt Cap80.6235.9109.292.077.653.886.3
P/S2.02.71.51.89.02.52.2
P/EBIT14.622.618.216.819.521.318.9
P/E20.035.826.021.840.231.728.8
P/CFO23.429.617.216.136.921.522.4
Total Yield5.8%4.3%6.0%6.3%8.2%4.8%5.9%
Dividend Yield0.8%1.5%2.1%1.7%5.7%1.7%1.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.8%3.7%4.8%4.4%2.2%4.2%4.0%
D/E0.20.20.20.10.30.20.2
Net D/E0.20.10.20.10.30.20.2

Returns

NOCRTXLMTGDTDGLHXMedian
NameNorthrop.RTX Lockheed.General .TransDigmL3Harris. 
1M Rtn-5.3%11.2%-4.9%3.2%5.5%1.8%2.5%
3M Rtn-3.3%12.9%7.6%9.5%2.7%6.7%7.2%
6M Rtn20.6%29.2%0.9%22.6%-0.9%26.3%21.6%
12M Rtn16.0%50.3%-9.5%21.1%13.8%19.3%17.6%
3Y Rtn13.7%96.3%7.0%46.7%151.8%36.9%41.8%
1M Excs Rtn-5.4%11.1%-5.0%3.1%5.4%1.6%2.4%
3M Excs Rtn-7.7%10.2%3.4%4.4%-1.9%2.5%3.0%
6M Excs Rtn8.7%17.3%-11.0%10.7%-12.7%14.4%9.7%
12M Excs Rtn-1.4%33.3%-24.7%-0.4%-6.7%1.1%-0.9%
3Y Excs Rtn-57.4%23.8%-64.7%-25.0%75.5%-39.9%-32.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Space Systems11,87312,27510,6088,7447,425
Mission Systems10,89510,39610,13410,0809,410
Aeronautics Systems10,78610,53111,25912,16911,116
Defense Systems8,2895,5795,7767,5437,495
Intersegment profit eliminations-2,553-2,179-2,110-1,737-1,605
Total39,29036,60235,66736,79933,841


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Mission Systems1,6091,6181,5791,4591,408
Space Systems1,1301,1581,121893794
Defense Systems829664696846793
Financial Accounting Standards (FAS)/Cost Accounting Standards (CAS) operating adjustment-82-200130418465
Unallocated corporate expense-141-4521,304-541-474
Intersegment profit eliminations-335-303-272-216-205
Aeronautics Systems-4731,1161,0931,2061,188
Total2,5373,6015,6514,0653,969


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,200,859
Short Interest: % Change Since 10152025-18.9%
Average Daily Volume889,031
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.35
Basic Shares Quantity143,100,000
Short % of Basic Shares0.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/21/2025-0.4%-1.0% 
7/22/20259.4%10.3%13.8%
4/22/2025-12.7%-9.0%-10.3%
1/30/20250.4%-1.9%-4.1%
10/24/20241.4%-2.1%-3.9%
7/25/20246.4%9.5%15.3%
4/25/20242.8%2.5%-1.6%
1/25/2024-6.3%-3.7%-0.2%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive14811
# Negative101613
Median Positive1.7%6.6%6.3%
Median Negative-4.0%-3.4%-3.7%
Max Positive9.4%10.3%15.3%
Max Negative-12.7%-9.0%-13.7%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251021202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025722202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025422202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024130202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023125202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022126202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021127202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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