Northrop Grumman (NOC)
Market Price (8/20/2026): $584.0 | Market Cap: $83.0 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Northrop Grumman (NOC)
Market Price (8/20/2026): $584.0Market Cap: $83.0 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 5.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.6 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.8 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29% | Key risksNOC key risks include [1] major execution challenges, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 5.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 3.6 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 4.8 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -29% |
| Key risksNOC key risks include [1] major execution challenges, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 8/7/2026
Northrop Grumman (NOC) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Initial Stock Decline from Q1 2026 Earnings Concerns, establishing a lower base.
Northrop Grumman's stock experienced a significant decline of approximately 17% in the 30 days preceding April 30, 2026, falling from $697 to $579.48. This drop was primarily driven by investor concerns over cash burn and a specific charge within the Space Systems segment, despite the company exceeding Q1 2026 earnings estimates.
2. Q2 2026 Earnings Beat and Upgraded Full-Year Guidance, driving recovery.
The stock's stabilization and subsequent rebound were largely driven by strong fiscal Q2 2026 results, released on July 21, 2026. Northrop Grumman reported diluted earnings per share of $7.68, surpassing the consensus estimate of $6.82, and sales increased 5% year-over-year to $10.9 billion, exceeding expectations. The company also raised its full-year 2026 sales guidance to between $43.75 billion and $44.25 billion and MTM-adjusted EPS to between $28.60 and $29.10, indicating a positive future outlook.
Show more
Northrop Grumman (NOC) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Initial Stock Decline from Q1 2026 Earnings Concerns, establishing a lower base.
Northrop Grumman's stock experienced a significant decline of approximately 17% in the 30 days preceding April 30, 2026, falling from $697 to $579.48. This drop was primarily driven by investor concerns over cash burn and a specific charge within the Space Systems segment, despite the company exceeding Q1 2026 earnings estimates.
2. Q2 2026 Earnings Beat and Upgraded Full-Year Guidance, driving recovery.
The stock's stabilization and subsequent rebound were largely driven by strong fiscal Q2 2026 results, released on July 21, 2026. Northrop Grumman reported diluted earnings per share of $7.68, surpassing the consensus estimate of $6.82, and sales increased 5% year-over-year to $10.9 billion, exceeding expectations. The company also raised its full-year 2026 sales guidance to between $43.75 billion and $44.25 billion and MTM-adjusted EPS to between $28.60 and $29.10, indicating a positive future outlook.
Show more
Updated on 8/7/2026
Northrop Grumman (NOC) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Initial Stock Decline from Q1 2026 Earnings Concerns, establishing a lower base.
Northrop Grumman's stock experienced a significant decline of approximately 17% in the 30 days preceding April 30, 2026, falling from $697 to $579.48. This drop was primarily driven by investor concerns over cash burn and a specific charge within the Space Systems segment, despite the company exceeding Q1 2026 earnings estimates.
2. Q2 2026 Earnings Beat and Upgraded Full-Year Guidance, driving recovery.
The stock's stabilization and subsequent rebound were largely driven by strong fiscal Q2 2026 results, released on July 21, 2026. Northrop Grumman reported diluted earnings per share of $7.68, surpassing the consensus estimate of $6.82, and sales increased 5% year-over-year to $10.9 billion, exceeding expectations. The company also raised its full-year 2026 sales guidance to between $43.75 billion and $44.25 billion and MTM-adjusted EPS to between $28.60 and $29.10, indicating a positive future outlook.
3. Record Backlog and Major Contract Wins, providing underlying support.
Northrop Grumman achieved a new record backlog of $105 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, driven by $20 billion in net awards. Furthermore, in early August 2026, the company secured multi-year framework agreements exceeding $3 billion for PAC-3 MSE and THAAD components, aimed at accelerating missile interceptor production. These substantial contract wins and the growing backlog provided a robust fundamental floor for the stock, counteracting downward pressures.
4. Operating Margin Pressures and Program-Specific Challenges, tempering upward movement.
Despite strong top-line performance, operating margin rates declined in fiscal Q2 2026 to 10.1% from 13.8% in the prior year, partly due to lower net Estimate at Completion (EAC) adjustments and the absence of a prior year gain from divestitures. This included an unfavorable adjustment of $91 million on the GEM 63XL program due to increased projected costs, and a $68 million negative estimate on the Stand-in Attack Weapon project, which collectively moderated investor sentiment and limited more significant stock appreciation.
Show less
Northrop Grumman (NOC) stock has remained largely at the same level since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Initial Stock Decline from Q1 2026 Earnings Concerns, establishing a lower base.
Northrop Grumman's stock experienced a significant decline of approximately 17% in the 30 days preceding April 30, 2026, falling from $697 to $579.48. This drop was primarily driven by investor concerns over cash burn and a specific charge within the Space Systems segment, despite the company exceeding Q1 2026 earnings estimates.
2. Q2 2026 Earnings Beat and Upgraded Full-Year Guidance, driving recovery.
The stock's stabilization and subsequent rebound were largely driven by strong fiscal Q2 2026 results, released on July 21, 2026. Northrop Grumman reported diluted earnings per share of $7.68, surpassing the consensus estimate of $6.82, and sales increased 5% year-over-year to $10.9 billion, exceeding expectations. The company also raised its full-year 2026 sales guidance to between $43.75 billion and $44.25 billion and MTM-adjusted EPS to between $28.60 and $29.10, indicating a positive future outlook.
3. Record Backlog and Major Contract Wins, providing underlying support.
Northrop Grumman achieved a new record backlog of $105 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, driven by $20 billion in net awards. Furthermore, in early August 2026, the company secured multi-year framework agreements exceeding $3 billion for PAC-3 MSE and THAAD components, aimed at accelerating missile interceptor production. These substantial contract wins and the growing backlog provided a robust fundamental floor for the stock, counteracting downward pressures.
4. Operating Margin Pressures and Program-Specific Challenges, tempering upward movement.
Despite strong top-line performance, operating margin rates declined in fiscal Q2 2026 to 10.1% from 13.8% in the prior year, partly due to lower net Estimate at Completion (EAC) adjustments and the absence of a prior year gain from divestitures. This included an unfavorable adjustment of $91 million on the GEM 63XL program due to increased projected costs, and a $68 million negative estimate on the Stand-in Attack Weapon project, which collectively moderated investor sentiment and limited more significant stock appreciation.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.0% change in NOC stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 2.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 576.94 | 582.84 | 1.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 42,367 | 42,892 | 1.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.8% | 10.5% | -3.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 17.9 | 18.4 | 2.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 142 | 142 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NOC | 1.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | -3.5% |
| Sector (XLI) | 4.2% | 13.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -15.2% change in NOC stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a -21.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 687.03 | 582.84 | -15.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 41,954 | 42,892 | 2.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.0% | 10.5% | 5.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.4 | 18.4 | -21.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 143 | 142 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -15.2% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NOC | -15.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.4% | -2.6% |
| Sector (XLI) | 10.3% | 20.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.7% change in NOC stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 7.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 567.71 | 582.84 | 2.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 40,501 | 42,892 | 5.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.7% | 10.5% | 7.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 20.7 | 18.4 | -10.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 144 | 142 | 1.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NOC | 2.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 22.7% | 2.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 20.9% | 27.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 37.7% change in NOC stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/19/2026 was primarily driven by a 33.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8192026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 423.38 | 582.84 | 37.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 37,881 | 42,892 | 13.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.3% | 10.5% | -14.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.8 | 18.4 | 33.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 152 | 142 | 6.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 37.7% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/19/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| NOC | 37.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.9% | 4.0% |
| Sector (XLI) | 71.6% | 23.4% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NOC Return | 29% | 43% | -13% | 2% | 24% | 4% | 112% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 15% | 6% | 5% | 32% | 14% | 122% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 12% | 105% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NOC Win Rate | 50% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 57% | 55% | 47% | 60% | 62% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NOC Max Drawdown | -15% | -12% | -22% | -14% | -16% | -35% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -17% | -25% | -24% | -23% | -17% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LMT, RTX, BA, GD, LHX. See NOC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 8/19/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NOC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 406 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 148 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 252 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.4% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 189 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 132.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 942 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Northrop Grumman's stock fell 0.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | NOC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 406 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -28.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.8% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 148 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -24.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 32.5% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 252 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -20.9% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.4% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 189 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -56.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 132.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 942 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Northrop Grumman's stock fell 0.0% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Northrop Grumman (NOC)
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) is a leading global aerospace and defense technology company. It specializes in designing, developing, manufacturing, and sustaining advanced systems and solutions critical for national security. Essentially, the company provides high-tech equipment and capabilities that support military and government operations across various domains, including air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace.
The company's main products and services are diverse and span several key areas. Its offerings include advanced aircraft systems such as strategic bombers, tactical fighter jets, and unmanned autonomous surveillance aircraft. Northrop Grumman also produces a wide range of weapons and mission systems, including precision strike weapons, munitions, missiles, and integrated battle management systems. Furthermore, it develops sophisticated sensors (radar, electro-optical/infrared), electronic warfare systems, cyber solutions, and advanced communications technologies. In the space domain, the company provides satellites, missile defense systems, launch vehicles, and strategic missiles.
Northrop Grumman's primary customers are governments and military organizations worldwide. It operates within the highly specialized aerospace and defense market, serving the national security and defense needs of nations by providing cutting-edge solutions. These solutions support critical missions ranging from air dominance and long-range strike capabilities to intelligence gathering, space exploration, and cyber protection.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies to describe Northrop Grumman:
Imagine a super high-tech version of Boeing, focused purely on military and national security, building everything from advanced fighter jets and stealth bombers to satellites, missile defense, and cyber warfare systems.
Like a combination of SpaceX for military space technology and Palantir for defense intelligence systems, but also building the most advanced military aircraft and weapons.
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- Aircraft Systems: Designs, manufactures, and sustains various manned and unmanned aircraft, including fighters, bombers, and surveillance platforms.
- Weapons and Munitions: Develops and produces a range of precision strike weapons, missiles, and munition systems.
- Propulsion Systems: Provides advanced propulsion solutions, including air-breathing and hypersonic systems for various platforms.
- C4ISR Systems: Offers comprehensive command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems and solutions.
- Sensor Systems: Develops and integrates advanced radar, electro-optical/infrared, acoustic, and other sensor technologies.
- Electronic Warfare Systems: Provides systems for electronic countermeasures and protection against adversarial electronic threats.
- Cyber Solutions: Offers capabilities in cyber defense, intelligence processing, and networked information solutions.
- Navigation Systems: Develops precise navigation, targeting, and survivability solutions for various platforms.
- Space Systems: Produces satellites, payloads, ground systems, launch vehicles, and strategic missiles.
- Missile Defense Systems: Designs and manufactures systems and interceptors for ballistic missile defense.
- Logistics and Sustainment Services: Provides life cycle support, sustainment, operation, and modernization for air, sea, and ground systems.
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Northrop Grumman (NOC) primarily sells its advanced aerospace and defense products and services to government entities rather than to other companies or individuals.
Its major customers fall into the following categories:
- U.S. Government: The primary customer is the United States government, predominantly the Department of Defense (DoD), including the Air Force, Navy, Army, and other defense and intelligence agencies.
- International Governments: Northrop Grumman also serves allied foreign governments and their defense ministries, often through direct commercial sales or U.S. government-facilitated foreign military sales programs.
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- RTX Corporation (NYSE: RTX)
- General Electric (NYSE: GE)
- Honeywell International Inc. (NASDAQ: HON)
- L3Harris Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: LHX)
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Kathy J. Warden, Chair, Chief Executive Officer, and President
Kathy J. Warden has served as Northrop Grumman's Chief Executive Officer since January 2019, as the Chair of the Board of Directors since August 2019, and as President since 2017. She joined Northrop Grumman in 2008. Prior to her tenure at Northrop Grumman, Ms. Warden held leadership roles at General Electric for nearly a decade, Veridian Corporation, and General Dynamics. She was also a principal in a venture internet firm. Veridian Corporation, where she held a leadership role, was later acquired by General Dynamics.
Dave Keffer, Corporate Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Dave Keffer is responsible for Northrop Grumman's overall financial strategies, planning, and activities. He joined the company in February 2020. Before joining Northrop Grumman, Mr. Keffer was a General Partner at Blue Delta Capital Partners from 2018 to 2020. He previously served as the Chief Financial Officer of CSRA, Inc., a company he helped take public in late 2015 and which was later sold to General Dynamics in 2018. Prior to CSRA, he was the CFO of SRA International, where he led operational improvement initiatives, capital structure enhancements, and a series of acquisitions. He began his career at Navigant Consulting and Maden Technologies.
Lucy C. Ryan, Chief Communications Officer and Corporate Vice President
Lucy C. Ryan has served as Northrop Grumman's Chief Communications Officer and Corporate Vice President since January 2019. She is responsible for the company's global communications strategy and execution, media relations, and corporate image. Ms. Ryan has nearly 30 years of global communications and public relations experience, having previously worked as the Director of Communications at General Dynamics and the Director of Marketing and PR at General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems.
Ann Addison, Chief Human Resources Officer & Corporate Vice President
Ann Addison is Northrop Grumman's Chief Human Resources Officer and Corporate Vice President. She possesses a strong background in information systems, human resources analytics, and diversity. In 2021, Ms. Addison re-engineered human resources processes and practices and launched a new digital platform for the employee experience. Before joining Northrop Grumman, she was an Executive Vice President and Chief Human Resources Officer at Leidos.
David T. Perry, Chief Global Business Officer and Corporate Vice President
David T. Perry has been with Northrop Grumman Corporation since 1999 and currently serves as the Chief Global Business Officer and Corporate Vice President. In this role, he is responsible for domestic and international acquisition efforts and leads corporate operations outside the U.S. Mr. Perry's previous responsibilities at Northrop Grumman include Vice President and General Manager of the Naval and Marine Systems Divisions of Mission Systems. Before joining the company, he served as a nuclear submarine officer in the U.S. Navy.
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Key Risks to Northrop Grumman (NOC)
- High Dependency on U.S. Government Spending and Associated Contractual Risks: Northrop Grumman's business is heavily reliant on the U.S. government, with approximately 85% to 87% of its revenue derived from federal contracts, primarily with the Department of Defense. This exposes the company to significant risks from shifts in government budget allocations, political priorities, and overall defense spending levels. Any budgetary constraints, changes in strategic defense initiatives, or shifts in procurement practices can directly impact the company's revenue streams and long-term planning. Furthermore, the company faces inherent risks with large-scale, long-duration fixed-price defense contracts. These contracts can lead to substantial financial losses due to unforeseen complexities, cost overruns, and inflationary pressures, as evidenced by recent program difficulties.
- Major Program Cost Overruns and Delays: Northrop Grumman has experienced significant financial setbacks and cost overruns on critical programs. Notably, the Sentinel Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) program has seen its estimated total cost surge by an alarming 81% from initial projections, triggering a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach and introducing considerable uncertainty regarding its future. The company has also reported substantial losses on the B-21 Raider stealth bomber program due to higher-than-expected manufacturing and materials costs. These program-specific challenges have directly impacted the company's profitability, led to lowered earnings per share forecasts, and eroded investor confidence.
- Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Intensified Competition: The company is exposed to supply chain risks, including vulnerabilities exacerbated by restrictions on crucial components like rare earth minerals and advanced semiconductors. Disruptions in the supply chain can affect production schedules and increase costs. Additionally, Northrop Grumman faces intensified competition within the aerospace and defense sector. This competition comes not only from major defense contractors but also from agile startups, particularly in emerging technology domains like autonomous systems, where the company has recently lost key contracts. Maintaining a competitive edge and managing supply chain resilience are critical challenges.
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The rapidly advancing and cost-effective commercial space industry poses a clear emerging threat to aspects of Northrop Grumman's Space Systems segment. Companies like SpaceX, Rocket Lab, and other commercial entities are demonstrating significantly lower costs and faster deployment cycles for launch services, satellite manufacturing, and related ground systems. This commercialization trend could challenge Northrop Grumman's traditional role as a primary provider of bespoke, high-cost government and defense space solutions, potentially leading to increased competition, pressure on pricing, and a shift in government procurement towards commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) or commercially developed solutions for certain missions.
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Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) operates in several significant addressable markets within the aerospace and defense industry. Here are the estimated market sizes for its main products and services:
- Aerospace and Defense Market: The global aerospace and defense market was valued at approximately USD 846.94 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 899.65 billion in 2026, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.2%. This market is expected to reach USD 1185.07 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 7.1%. North America is estimated to lead this market, holding a share of 46.2% in 2026.
- Military Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) / Drone Market: The global military drone (UAV) market was valued at USD 15.23 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 21.81 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 7.6%. Another source indicates a market size of approximately USD 20.8 billion in 2026, projected to reach USD 34.1 billion by 2033 at a CAGR of 7.3%.
- Missile Defense System Market: The global missile defense system market was valued at USD 31.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 54.2 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 6.5%. North America held the largest share of this market, accounting for over 35% of total revenue in 2024.
- Military Satellite Market: The global military satellite market was valued at USD 36.99 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 54.26 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of roughly 4.35% from 2024 to 2032. Another report estimates the market at USD 36 billion in 2025, expected to reach USD 57.99 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 10.00%. North America dominated the military satellite market with a market share of 38.00% in 2025.
- C4ISR Market (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance): The global C4ISR market was estimated at USD 131.50 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 190.78 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 4.2% from 2025 to 2033. North America dominated this market with the largest revenue share of over 39% in 2024. Another source indicates the market size reached USD 141.4 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 194.5 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 3.42%.
- Electronic Warfare Market: The global electronic warfare market was valued at USD 15.1 billion in 2024 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 12.6% to reach USD 49 billion by 2034. North America dominated the electronic warfare market with the largest revenue share of 36.75% in 2025.
- Military Logistics Market: The global defense logistics market was valued at USD 182.50 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 344.35 billion by 2034, exhibiting a CAGR of 7.3%. North America dominated the global market with a share of 33.19% in 2025.
- Government and Defense Cybersecurity Market: The global government and defense cybersecurity market size was valued at USD 35,871.6 million (approximately USD 35.87 billion) in 2025 and is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 10.8% from 2025 to 2033, reaching USD 80,698.7 million (approximately USD 80.70 billion) by 2033. Another estimate projects the market to increase from USD 75.14 billion in 2025 to USD 153.36 billion by 2031, growing at a CAGR of 12.63% over 2026-2031. North America retained a 34.81% share in 2025.
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Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) is expected to experience future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years driven by several key factors in the aerospace and defense sector:
- Acceleration of the B-21 Raider Program: The B-21 Raider stealth bomber program is a significant long-term growth driver for Northrop Grumman. The company and the U.S. Air Force are working to accelerate production, with substantial multi-year investments planned for digital engineering and manufacturing infrastructure to support higher build rates. The first aircraft is targeted for delivery by 2027.
- Increased Global Defense Demand and Geopolitical Tensions: An unprecedented global defense demand cycle, fueled by ongoing geopolitical tensions, is driving sales across various Northrop Grumman segments. This includes the recapitalization of strategic triads, modernization of space assets, expanded production of tactical missiles, and advancements in missile defense systems.
- Growth in Space Systems: Northrop Grumman's Space Systems segment has demonstrated a return to growth, with key drivers including the development of the Golden Dome architecture, an increase in launch-motor capacity, and the recapitalization of government satellites. This segment's robust backlog provides a strong foundation for future expansion.
- Expansion of International Sales: The company anticipates continued growth in international sales, particularly driven by strong demand for weapons systems and other defense products from allied nations outside the U.S. International sales experienced an 18% year-over-year growth in the second quarter of 2025.
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Share Repurchases
- In December 2024, Northrop Grumman's board of directors authorized an additional $3 billion for common stock repurchase, increasing the total outstanding authorized amount to approximately $4.2 billion.
- The company repurchased $1.624 billion in shares in 2025.
- Northrop Grumman's annual share buybacks were $2.514 billion in 2024 and $1.5 billion in 2023.
Share Issuance
- Northrop Grumman's shares outstanding have shown a decline over the last few years, decreasing by 2.38% in 2025, 3.09% in 2024, and 2.31% in 2023, primarily indicating net share repurchases over any issuances.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal years ending December 2021 to 2025 averaged $1.568 billion, with a peak of $1.775 billion in 2023.
- In 2025, capital expenditures totaled $1.45 billion, which represented 3.5% of sales.
- For 2026, capital expenditures are projected to be $1.65 billion, or approximately 4% of sales, with a focus on supporting higher B-21 build rates and expanding munitions capacity.
Peer Outperformance in Aerospace & Defense
NOC has trailed 56% of its 54 Aerospace & Defense peers over 5Y. Among the peers that beat it are ATI and DCO. Aerospace & Defense ranks 4th of 23 industries in Industrials by median 5Y return.
Share of Aerospace & Defense constituents that NOC has outperformed, by holding period. Peers without a full price history over a given window are excluded from that window.
1Y
36%
of 70 industry peers · 1.0% return
3Y
38%
of 60 industry peers · 42.4% return
5Y
44%
of 54 industry peers · 74.1% return
Aerospace & Defense peers with revenue growth within 4pp of NOC's that beat it on at least 2 of 3 windows, and by at least 20pp over 5Y. Growth is matched by construction, so the gap is largely a re-rating gap. The multiple column is the context for it.
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOC | Northrop Grumman | 4.3% | 18.4x | 1.0% | 42.4% | 74.1% | — |
| ATI | ATI | 4.6% | 61.9x | 199.8% | 385.3% | 1116.8% | +1,043pp |
| DCO | Ducommun | 5.1% | -100.6x | 127.8% | 356.4% | 288.7% | +215pp |
Price returns, excluding dividends. P/E shown for context only and not used for matching.
Median price return by industry across the Industrials sector, ranked by 5Y. Aerospace & Defense is NOC's own industry. Use this to see which corners of the sector have carried the returns.
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Construction & Engineering | 31 | 31.4% | 131.6% | 210.1% | CDNL 3233% · STRL 2335% · FIX 2227% |
| Marine Transportation | 4 | 71.1% | 64.1% | 165.0% | MATX 218% · SFL 167% · KEX 163% |
| Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment | 13 | 11.6% | 58.6% | 122.8% | CAT 334% · ALSN 260% · WAB 251% |
| Aerospace & Defense ← | 55 | 17.3% | 84.8% | 88.8% | DFNS 2609% · ATI 1117% · FTAI 999% |
| Passenger Ground Transportation | 3 | -9.7% | 56.6% | 65.8% | UBER 95% · CAR 66% · LYFT -62% |
| Industrial Machinery & Supplies & Components | 71 | 11.2% | 56.3% | 50.3% | CRS 1580% · PSIX 869% · GHM 780% |
| Trading Companies & Distributors | 18 | 5.9% | 36.1% | 47.9% | DXPE 545% · AIT 314% · URI 251% |
| Rail Transportation | 7 | 37.9% | 71.4% | 46.4% | FSTR 114% · CSX 61% · UNP 51% |
| Cargo Ground Transportation | 16 | 42.5% | 11.5% | 45.9% | XPO 283% · R 278% · CVLG 218% |
| Diversified Support Services | 34 | 12.0% | 37.8% | 40.3% | LIME 4287% · TH 391% · WLFC 363% |
| Electrical Components & Equipment | 40 | 27.8% | 40.6% | 35.9% | POWL 2456% · BE 933% · ELVA 917% |
| Building Products | 33 | -4.5% | 21.5% | 33.4% | GFF 438% · LMB 435% · PPIH 281% |
| Industrial Conglomerates | 17 | 24.1% | 24.2% | 11.1% | RCMT 788% · TTI 192% · CSW 155% |
| Office Services & Supplies | 10 | 17.0% | 28.8% | 5.6% | TILE 200% · PBI 166% · EBF 59% |
| Environmental & Facilities Services | 28 | -6.7% | 15.9% | 3.2% | CECO 935% · ADUR 630% · NVRI 306% |
| Research & Consulting Services | 13 | -5.4% | -17.8% | -2.8% | HURN 219% · CRAI 96% · GRNQ 71% |
| Agricultural & Farm Machinery | 17 | -6.9% | -15.5% | -18.0% | BLBD 202% · DE 76% · GENC 67% |
| Passenger Airlines | 11 | 9.1% | -5.7% | -24.1% | LTM 2416% · UAL 163% · SKYW 155% |
| Data Processing & Outsourced Services | 6 | -30.8% | -9.6% | -25.2% | EXLS 54% · BR 10% · G -25% |
| Human Resource & Employment Services | 21 | 12.3% | -20.6% | -34.5% | BBSI 87% · ADP 46% · KFY 38% |
| Air Freight & Logistics | 12 | -13.1% | -24.2% | -35.9% | CHRW 84% · FDX 70% · EXPD 61% |
| Security & Alarm Services | 10 | -28.4% | -16.1% | -44.8% | CIX 118% · MG 101% · BCO 50% |
| Airport Services | 3 | -67.1% | -67.5% | -57.1% | JOBY -22% · ASLE -57% · UP -100% |
Median of constituents with a full price history over each window. Top names are unfiltered by size in this render.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 334.73 |
| Mkt Cap | 120.8 |
| Rev LTM | 65,938 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,130 |
| FCF LTM | 5,046 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,386 |
| CFO LTM | 6,392 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,702 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.2% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 20.8% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 10.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 8.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 120.8 |
| P/S | 1.9 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.4 |
| P/EBIT | 18.3 |
| P/E | 25.7 |
| P/CFO | 16.0 |
| Total Yield | 5.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 8.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 9.7% |
| 6M Rtn | -7.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 14.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 52.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -19.6% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -4.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -21.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aeronautics Systems | 12,992 | 12,396 | 11,164 | 10,531 | 11,259 |
| Mission Systems | 12,506 | 11,399 | 10,895 | 10,396 | 10,134 |
| Space Systems | 10,771 | 11,731 | 11,873 | 10,570 | 10,608 |
| Defense Systems | 8,002 | 7,399 | 7,185 | 7,629 | 5,776 |
| Intersegment profit eliminations | -2,317 | -1,892 | -1,827 | -2,524 | -2,110 |
| Total | 41,954 | 41,033 | 39,290 | 36,602 | 35,667 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mission Systems | 1,827 | 1,598 | 1,609 | 1,618 | 1,579 |
| Space Systems | 1,183 | 1,254 | 1,130 | 1,078 | 1,121 |
| Defense Systems | 871 | 716 | 684 | 781 | 696 |
| Aeronautics Systems | 813 | 1,236 | -416 | 1,116 | 1,093 |
| Financial Accounting Standards (FAS) / Cost Accounting Standards (CAS) operating adjustment | 258 | 40 | -82 | -200 | 130 |
| Unallocated corporate expense | -124 | -214 | -141 | -452 | 1,304 |
| Intersegment profit eliminations | -317 | -260 | -247 | -340 | -272 |
| Total | 4,511 | 4,370 | 2,537 | 3,601 | 5,651 |
| $ Mil | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Space Systems | 11,540 | 10,760 | 10,028 | 10,595 | |
| Mission Systems | 10,120 | 9,869 | 10,029 | 9,934 | 11,047 |
| Aeronautics Systems | 9,701 | 9,423 | 8,997 | 9,104 | 9,750 |
| Corporate assets | 6,231 | 6,616 | 8,063 | 4,036 | 3,531 |
| Defense Systems | 6,163 | 5,911 | 7,352 | 7,420 | |
| Total | 43,755 | 42,579 | 44,469 | 41,089 | 24,328 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $582.84 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 82.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/31/1981 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -23.8% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $541.70 | $601.59 |
| DMA Trend | down | indeterminate |
| Distance from DMA | 7.6% | -3.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 29.1% | 26.7% |
| Downside Capture | -51.96 | 4.54 |
| Upside Capture | -16.10 | 4.64 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -1.8% | 2.9% |
NOC Betas & Captures as of 7/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.23 | -0.08 | -0.09 | -0.06 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Up Beta | -0.93 | -0.09 | -0.11 | -0.09 | -0.15 | 0.05 |
| Down Beta | 2.37 | 0.71 | 0.70 | -0.05 | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| Up Capture | -34% | -46% | -41% | -23% | 2% | 2% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 20 | 28 | 55 | 122 | 392 |
| Down Capture | -145% | -29% | -30% | 25% | 13% | 0% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 23 | 35 | 71 | 129 | 360 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NOC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOC | 1.2% | 26.6% | 0.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 21.8% | 17.1% | 0.99 | 28.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 20.7% | 12.8% | 1.19 | 2.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 35.0% | 28.8% | 1.04 | 21.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 41.4% | 20.2% | 1.60 | 9.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.3% | 13.9% | 0.78 | 18.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -44.7% | 42.7% | -1.27 | 9.9% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NOC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOC | 11.5% | 25.7% | 0.41 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 13.2% | 17.6% | 0.58 | 29.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.2% | 0.59 | 13.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.4% | 18.6% | 0.89 | 14.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.8% | 19.6% | 0.39 | 14.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.4% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 21.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.2% | 52.6% | 0.32 | 3.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with NOC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOC | 12.2% | 25.7% | 0.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.0% | 20.0% | 0.61 | 47.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 35.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.5% | 16.2% | 0.63 | 10.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.9% | 18.1% | 0.35 | 15.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 34.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 60.0% | 66.0% | 1.00 | 5.5% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 8/20/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/21/2026 | -2.2% | 4.5% | 12.4% |
| 4/21/2026 | -7.0% | -12.4% | -15.3% |
| 1/27/2026 | 2.7% | 3.6% | 6.8% |
| 10/21/2025 | -0.4% | -1.0% | -5.9% |
| 7/22/2025 | 9.4% | 10.3% | 13.8% |
| 4/22/2025 | -12.7% | -9.0% | -10.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | 0.4% | -1.9% | -4.1% |
| 10/24/2024 | 1.4% | -2.1% | -3.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 15 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 1.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -3.1% | -4.0% |
| Max Positive | 9.4% | 10.3% | 15.3% |
| Max Negative | -12.7% | -12.4% | -15.3% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/21/2026 | -2.2% | 4.5% | 12.4% |
| 4/21/2026 | -7.0% | -12.4% | -15.3% |
| 1/27/2026 | 2.7% | 3.6% | 6.8% |
| 10/21/2025 | -0.4% | -1.0% | -5.9% |
| 7/22/2025 | 9.4% | 10.3% | 13.8% |
| 4/22/2025 | -12.7% | -9.0% | -10.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | 0.4% | -1.9% | -4.1% |
| 10/24/2024 | 1.4% | -2.1% | -3.9% |
| 7/25/2024 | 6.4% | 9.5% | 15.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | 2.8% | 2.5% | -1.6% |
| 1/25/2024 | -6.3% | -3.7% | -0.2% |
| 10/26/2023 | -1.1% | -3.1% | -2.0% |
| 7/27/2023 | -2.6% | -2.1% | -5.5% |
| 4/27/2023 | 1.9% | -1.2% | -3.5% |
| 1/26/2023 | -4.3% | -4.5% | 2.0% |
| 10/27/2022 | 0.9% | -0.1% | -0.3% |
| 7/28/2022 | 1.9% | 8.1% | 10.9% |
| 4/28/2022 | 1.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% |
| 1/27/2022 | -7.3% | -8.0% | 2.0% |
| 10/28/2021 | -7.6% | -8.8% | -8.4% |
| 7/29/2021 | 1.5% | -0.8% | 1.8% |
| 4/29/2021 | 4.1% | 10.2% | 9.5% |
| 1/28/2021 | 0.3% | 2.9% | 0.3% |
| 10/22/2020 | -1.7% | -4.8% | 0.4% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 13 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 11 | 15 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 1.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.3% | -3.1% | -4.0% |
| Max Positive | 9.4% | 10.3% | 15.3% |
| Max Negative | -12.7% | -12.4% | -15.3% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/21/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/21/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/30/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/25/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/26/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/21/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/21/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/27/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/22/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 01/30/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 01/25/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 01/26/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 01/27/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 04/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 01/28/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/22/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 01/30/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/24/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/22/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Sales | 43.75 Bil | 44.00 Bil | 44.25 Bil | 0.6% | Raised | Guidance: 43.75 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Segment operating income | 4.85 Bil | 4.92 Bil | 5.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.92 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 MTM-adjusted EPS | 28.6 | 28.9 | 29.1 | 4.3% | Raised | Guidance: 27.6 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted free cash flow | 3.10 Bil | 3.30 Bil | 3.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.30 Bil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Sales | 43.50 Bil | 43.75 Bil | 44.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 43.75 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Segment operating income | 4.85 Bil | 4.92 Bil | 5.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.92 Bil for 2026 | |
| 2026 MTM-adjusted EPS | 27.4 | 27.6 | 27.9 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 27.6 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow | 3.10 Bil | 3.30 Bil | 3.50 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.30 Bil for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/27/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Sales | 43.50 Bil | 43.75 Bil | 44.00 Bil | 4.7% | Higher New | Guidance: 41.80 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Segment operating income | 4.85 Bil | 4.92 Bil | 5.00 Bil | 13.9% | Higher New | Guidance: 4.33 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2026 MTM-adjusted EPS | 27.4 | 27.6 | 27.9 | 7.0% | Higher New | Guidance: 25.9 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Free cash flow | 3.10 Bil | 3.30 Bil | 3.50 Bil | 3.1% | Higher New | Guidance: 3.20 Bil for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/21/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Sales | 41.70 Bil | 41.80 Bil | 41.90 Bil | -0.8% | Lowered | Guidance: 42.15 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Segment operating income | 4.28 Bil | 4.33 Bil | 4.38 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 4.33 Bil for 2025 | |
| 2025 MTM-adjusted EPS | 25.6 | 25.9 | 26.1 | 2.6% | Raised | Guidance: 25.2 for 2025 | |
| 2025 Free cash flow | 3.05 Bil | 3.20 Bil | 3.35 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.20 Bil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 8/4/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Welsh, Mark A Iii | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 547.53 | 95 | 52,015 | 2,405,279 | Form | |
| 2 | Welsh, Mark A Iii | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 571.68 | 95 | 54,310 | 2,355,899 | Form | |
| 3 | Roeder, Roshan S | CVP & Pres. Mission Systems | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 720.00 | 1,754 | 1,262,880 | 1,694,441 | Form |
| 4 | Davies, Benjamin R | CVP & Pres. Defense Systems | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 719.61 | 2,189 | 1,575,255 | 108,661 | Form |
| 5 | Hardesty, Michael A | Corp VP, Controller & CAO | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 700.63 | 716 | 501,609 | 1,872,287 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Welsh, Mark A Iii | Direct | Sell | 8042026 | 547.53 | 95 | 52,015 | 2,405,279 | Form | |
| 2 | Welsh, Mark A Iii | Direct | Sell | 5052026 | 571.68 | 95 | 54,310 | 2,355,899 | Form | |
| 3 | Roeder, Roshan S | CVP & Pres. Mission Systems | Direct | Sell | 3022026 | 720.00 | 1,754 | 1,262,880 | 1,694,441 | Form |
| 4 | Davies, Benjamin R | CVP & Pres. Defense Systems | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 719.61 | 2,189 | 1,575,255 | 108,661 | Form |
| 5 | Hardesty, Michael A | Corp VP, Controller & CAO | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 700.63 | 716 | 501,609 | 1,872,287 | Form |
| 6 | Simpson, Kathryn G | Corp VP & General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 702.56 | 779 | 547,294 | 750,608 | Form |
| 7 | Roeder, Roshan S | CVP & Pres. Mission Systems | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 702.56 | 318 | 223,414 | 3,245,399 | Form |
| 8 | Hardesty, Michael A | Corp VP, Controller & CAO | Direct | Sell | 2172026 | 702.43 | 784 | 550,411 | 2,172,779 | Form |
| 9 | Warden, Kathy J | Chair, CEO and President | Direct | Sell | 2102026 | 708.82 | 20,000 | 14,176,469 | 121,635,805 | Form |
| 10 | Welsh, Mark A Iii | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 684.52 | 95 | 65,029 | 2,877,025 | Form | |
| 11 | Roeder, Roshan S | CVP & Pres. Mission Systems | Direct | Sell | 12112025 | 555.35 | 84 | 46,649 | 224,311 | Form |
| 12 | Welsh, Mark A Iii | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 564.08 | 97 | 54,716 | 2,414,815 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 20, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Focused Investors LLC | $121.0 Mil | 3.9% | 22 | TRIM -14.6% | 13F |
| Element Capital Management LLC | $6.1 Mil | 2.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
| Trinity Street Asset Management LLP | $30.9 Mil | 2.1% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $1.3 Bil | 1.5% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd | $24.2 Mil | 0.7% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $1.3 Bil | 1.5% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $121.0 Mil | 3.9% | 22 | TRIM -14.6% | 13F |
| Trinity Street Asset Management LLP | $30.9 Mil | 2.1% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Hancock Prospecting Pty Ltd | $24.2 Mil | 0.7% | 36 | New | 13F |
| Element Capital Management LLC | $6.1 Mil | 2.4% | 34 | New | 13F |
Northrop Grumman — Investor Video Playlist
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Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
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External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 8/19/2026