Tearsheet

Northrop Grumman (NOC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $557.53 | Market Cap: $79.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Northrop Grumman (NOC)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $557.53
Market Cap: $79.8 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NOC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Northrop Grumman's stock moved by -5.5% from approximately August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025:

1. Northrop Grumman reported a miss on revenue and lowered its sales outlook for 2025 during its Q3 2025 earnings call on October 21, 2025. While the company's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.67 beat analysts' consensus estimates of $6.43, its quarterly revenue of $10.42 billion fell short of the $10.68 billion consensus. The company also trimmed its full-year 2025 sales outlook to between $41.70 billion and $41.90 billion, which was lower than both previous targets and investor expectations, signaling concerns about future revenue growth.

2. The company faced significant cost overruns on its Sentinel Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) program and substantial losses on the B-21 Raider stealth bomber. By October 15, 2025, the estimated total cost for the Sentinel program had surged by an alarming 81% to $141 billion, triggering a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach. Additionally, Northrop Grumman reported losses of $477 million on the B-21 program in the first quarter of 2025, contributing to over $2 billion in total losses since late 2023, mainly due to higher manufacturing and material costs for low-rate initial production. These program difficulties eroded investor confidence and impacted profitability.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NOC Return-10%29%43%-13%2%19%76%
Peers Return-6%18%17%12%18%24%111%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NOC Win Rate58%50%67%42%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate48%58%53%52%67%70% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NOC Max Drawdown-21%-6%-4%-22%-9%-8% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-9%-5%-17%-4%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RTX, LMT, GD, TDG, LHX. See NOC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNOCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-23.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven30.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven656 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-29.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven42.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven564 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-37.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven59.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven226 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-59.5%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven147.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1691 days1480 days

Compare to RTX, LMT, GD, TDG, LHX


In The Past

Northrop Grumman's stock fell -23.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/31/2022. A -23.5% loss requires a 30.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

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Asset Allocation

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About Northrop Grumman (NOC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NOC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
NOC_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312018NOCNorthrop GrummanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
31.2%42.7%-2.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
CNM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025CNMCore & MainDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.3%7.3%-1.6%
VRRM_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025VRRMVerra MobilityDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
2.3%2.3%-1.2%
LII_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025LIILennox InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
4.8%4.8%0.0%
ADP_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ADPAutomatic Data ProcessingMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
1.6%1.6%-1.2%
CW_11212025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%11212025CWCurtiss-WrightQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
2.2%2.2%0.0%
NOC_12312018_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy12312018NOCNorthrop GrummanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
31.2%42.7%-2.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Northrop Grumman

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NOCRTXLMTGDTDGLHXMedian
NameNorthrop.RTX Lockheed.General .TransDigmL3Harris. 
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Valuation

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Returns

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NameNorthrop.RTX Lockheed.General .TransDigmL3Harris. 
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Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Space Systems11,87312,27510,6088,7447,425
Mission Systems10,89510,39610,13410,0809,410
Aeronautics Systems10,78610,53111,25912,16911,116
Defense Systems8,2895,5795,7767,5437,495
Intersegment profit eliminations-2,553-2,179-2,110-1,737-1,605
Total39,29036,60235,66736,79933,841


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Mission Systems1,6091,6181,5791,4591,408
Space Systems1,1301,1581,121893794
Defense Systems829664696846793
Financial Accounting Standards (FAS)/Cost Accounting Standards (CAS) operating adjustment-82-200130418465
Unallocated corporate expense-141-4521,304-541-474
Intersegment profit eliminations-335-303-272-216-205
Aeronautics Systems-4731,1161,0931,2061,188
Total2,5373,6015,6514,0653,969


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity1,746,447
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202545.4%
Average Daily Volume700,481
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.49
Basic Shares Quantity143,100,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.2%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251021202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025722202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025422202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024130202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023125202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022126202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021127202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0WELSH MARK A III 11252025Sell560.3915602,452,827Form