Northrop Grumman (NOC)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $563.51 | Market Cap: $80.6 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Northrop Grumman (NOC)
Market Price (11/18/2025): $563.51Market Cap: $80.6 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -26%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.4 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.8% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 3.4 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Cybersecurity, and Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -26%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -57% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
NOC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
For the approximate time period from July 31, 2025, to November 11, 2025, Northrop Grumman (NOC) stock experienced a decline, with key contributing factors including:
1. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss and Lowered Full-Year Guidance. Northrop Grumman reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 21, 2025, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) beating consensus estimates. However, revenue of $10.42 billion fell short of analyst expectations, which ranged from $10.68 billion to $10.82 billion. This revenue miss, coupled with the company lowering its full-year 2025 revenue guidance from a previous range of $42.05-$42.25 billion to $41.7-$41.9 billion, contributed to a negative market reaction.
2. Delayed Program Awards and Challenges in Space Division. The company's decision to lower its full-year revenue guidance was primarily attributed to delays in certain program awards and ongoing challenges within its Space Systems division. The Space Systems segment specifically saw a decline in both sales and operating income by 6% and 14%, respectively, largely due to the wind-down of work on restricted space programs.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NOC Return | -10% | 29% | 43% | -13% | 2% | 22% | 80% |
| Peers Return | -6% | 18% | 17% | 12% | 18% | 27% | 117% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NOC Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 58% | 53% | 52% | 67% | 70% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NOC Max Drawdown | -21% | -6% | -4% | -22% | -9% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -39% | -9% | -5% | -17% | -4% | -6% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RTX, LMT, GD, TDG, LHX. See NOC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NOC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -23.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 656 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -29.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 42.6% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 564 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -37.2% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 226 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -59.5% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1691 days | 1480 days |
Compare to RTX, LMT, GD, TDG, LHX
In The Past
Northrop Grumman's stock fell -23.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 10/31/2022. A -23.5% loss requires a 30.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NOC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | -10.3% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -10.2% | -10.2% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.4% | -3.4% | -4.8% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.1% | -7.1% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| 12312018 | NOC | Northrop Grumman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.2% | 42.7% | -2.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.3% | -10.3% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -10.2% | -10.2% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -3.4% | -3.4% | -4.8% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.1% | -7.1% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -4.2% | -4.2% | -4.2% |
| 12312018 | NOC | Northrop Grumman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 31.2% | 42.7% | -2.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Northrop Grumman
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 406.28 |
| Mkt Cap | 86.3 |
| Rev LTM | 46,218 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,712 |
| FCF LTM | 3,378 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,766 |
| CFO LTM | 4,578 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,071 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 10.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 86.3 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 18.9 |
| P/E | 28.8 |
| P/CFO | 22.4 |
| Total Yield | 5.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 7.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 21.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 17.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 41.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 2.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 3.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 9.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -0.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -32.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Space Systems | 11,873 | 12,275 | 10,608 | 8,744 | 7,425 |
| Mission Systems | 10,895 | 10,396 | 10,134 | 10,080 | 9,410 |
| Aeronautics Systems | 10,786 | 10,531 | 11,259 | 12,169 | 11,116 |
| Defense Systems | 8,289 | 5,579 | 5,776 | 7,543 | 7,495 |
| Intersegment profit eliminations | -2,553 | -2,179 | -2,110 | -1,737 | -1,605 |
| Total | 39,290 | 36,602 | 35,667 | 36,799 | 33,841 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mission Systems | 1,609 | 1,618 | 1,579 | 1,459 | 1,408 |
| Space Systems | 1,130 | 1,158 | 1,121 | 893 | 794 |
| Defense Systems | 829 | 664 | 696 | 846 | 793 |
| Financial Accounting Standards (FAS)/Cost Accounting Standards (CAS) operating adjustment | -82 | -200 | 130 | 418 | 465 |
| Unallocated corporate expense | -141 | -452 | 1,304 | -541 | -474 |
| Intersegment profit eliminations | -335 | -303 | -272 | -216 | -205 |
| Aeronautics Systems | -473 | 1,116 | 1,093 | 1,206 | 1,188 |
| Total | 2,537 | 3,601 | 5,651 | 4,065 | 3,969 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/21/2025 | -0.4% | -1.0% | |
| 7/22/2025 | 9.4% | 10.3% | 13.8% |
| 4/22/2025 | -12.7% | -9.0% | -10.3% |
| 1/30/2025 | 0.4% | -1.9% | -4.1% |
| 10/24/2024 | 1.4% | -2.1% | -3.9% |
| 7/25/2024 | 6.4% | 9.5% | 15.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | 2.8% | 2.5% | -1.6% |
| 1/25/2024 | -6.3% | -3.7% | -0.2% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 8 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 16 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 1.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.0% | -3.4% | -3.7% |
| Max Positive | 9.4% | 10.3% | 15.3% |
| Max Negative | -12.7% | -9.0% | -13.7% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10212025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7222025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4222025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1302025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10242024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7252024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 1252024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 1262023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 1272022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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