General Dynamics (GD)
Market Price (6/7/2026): $345.0 | Market Cap: $93.2 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
General Dynamics (GD)
Market Price (6/7/2026): $345.0Market Cap: $93.2 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, FCF Yield is 6.6% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 7.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.2 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.7 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Cybersecurity, Automation & Robotics, Advanced Materials, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -20% | Key risksGD key risks include [1] margin pressures in its Marine segment from rising shipbuilding costs, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%, FCF Yield is 6.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 7.4 Bil, FCF LTM is 6.2 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 2.7 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space, Cybersecurity, Automation & Robotics, Advanced Materials, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -20% |
| Key risksGD key risks include [1] margin pressures in its Marine segment from rising shipbuilding costs, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
General Dynamics (GD) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Significant insider selling activity by executives, exceeding the USD 5 million threshold, contributed to negative sentiment.
Executive Vice President Mark Lagrand Burns sold 36,480 shares of General Dynamics stock on May 12, 2026, for a total value of approximately USD 12.6 million. This transaction alone represented a 48.35% decrease in his stock ownership. Additionally, Chairman and CEO Phebe N Novakovic sold 32,918 shares for an estimated USD 11.7 million within the six months prior to April 16, 2026. Overall, General Dynamics insiders sold approximately USD 24.1 million worth of shares in the three months leading up to May 29, 2026, with no reported insider purchases during that period. This substantial selling by key company figures can signal a lack of confidence or significant profit-taking, leading to downward pressure on the stock.
2. Profit-taking and valuation adjustments likely occurred after a period of strong gains earlier in the year.
General Dynamics stock was reported to be up about 6% year-to-date as of March 26, 2026, trading near $356 per share. Despite reporting strong first-quarter 2026 results on April 29, 2026, with diluted EPS of $4.10 (beating estimates by $0.43) and revenue of $13.5 billion (exceeding estimates by $0.78 billion), the stock experienced a subsequent decline. This suggests that investors may have engaged in profit-taking after the earlier run-up, leading to a re-evaluation of the stock's valuation, especially as analysts noted a "below-average growth signal" and a P/E ratio of 21.7 as of May 29, 2026.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.5% change in GD stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/6/2026 was primarily driven by a -5.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 6062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 355.40 | 346.44 | -2.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 52,550 | 53,808 | 2.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.0% | 8.1% | 0.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.8 | 21.6 | -5.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 270 | 270 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.5% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GD | -2.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.8% | 13.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | -1.4% | 20.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 2.3% change in GD stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 6062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 338.67 | 346.44 | 2.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 51,509 | 53,808 | 4.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.2% | 8.1% | -1.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.6 | 21.6 | -0.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 269 | 270 | -0.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 2.3% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GD | 2.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.5% | 20.7% |
| Sector (XLI) | 14.0% | 38.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 26.7% change in GD stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312025 | 6062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 273.46 | 346.44 | 26.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 49,208 | 53,808 | 9.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.1% | 8.1% | -0.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.5 | 21.6 | 16.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 269 | 270 | -0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 26.7% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2025 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GD | 26.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 26.6% | 27.1% |
| Sector (XLI) | 23.6% | 43.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 80.4% change in GD stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/6/2026 was primarily driven by a 38.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312023 | 6062026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 192.05 | 346.44 | 80.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 39,896 | 53,808 | 34.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.5% | 8.1% | -5.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.5 | 21.6 | 38.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 274 | 270 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 80.4% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2023 to 6/6/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| GD | 80.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 83.4% | 37.3% |
| Sector (XLI) | 88.1% | 52.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| GD Return | 44% | 22% | 7% | 4% | 30% | 2% | 159% |
| Peers Return | 12% | 25% | 4% | -1% | 39% | -2% | 97% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| GD Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 58% | 67% | 67% | 67% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 60% | 45% | 48% | 58% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| GD Max Drawdown | -10% | -15% | -17% | -17% | -11% | -15% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -19% | -23% | -23% | -26% | -20% | -27% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: LMT, NOC, RTX, BA, HII. See GD Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/5/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | GD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -11.8% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.4% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 131 days | 31 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 368 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 862 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -17.9% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.8% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 203 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.2% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 101 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.5% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 222 days | 125 days |
In The Past
General Dynamics's stock fell -0.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.5% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | GD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -42.9% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.0% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 368 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -27.6% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 38.2% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 862 days | 105 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -21.4% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.2% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 101 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -25.1% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 33.5% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 222 days | 125 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -58.9% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 143.3% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1533 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
General Dynamics's stock fell -0.5% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 0.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About General Dynamics (GD)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Like a Boeing that not only makes aircraft (including luxury private jets) but also builds nuclear submarines, tanks, and advanced defense tech.
- Think of it as Lockheed Martin (a major defense contractor) with an added segment that manufactures luxury private jets, much like a high-end automaker specializing in planes.
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Major Products and Services of General Dynamics (GD)
- Business Jets: General Dynamics designs, manufactures, and sells business jets and provides related maintenance, repair, and support services.
- Naval Vessels: The company designs and builds nuclear-powered submarines, surface combatants, auxiliary ships, and commercial vessels, alongside maintenance and modernization services for naval fleets.
- Land Combat Systems: General Dynamics manufactures a range of land combat solutions including wheeled and tracked combat vehicles, main battle tanks, weapons systems, and munitions.
- Combat Systems Support: It offers modernization programs, engineering, support, and sustainment services for land combat vehicles and related systems.
- Information Technology & Mission Support: Provides IT solutions, mission support services, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and big data analytics for military and government clients.
- Command & Control Systems: Develops mobile communication, computers, command-and-control mission systems, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) solutions.
- Unmanned Undersea Vehicles: Manufactures and assembles unmanned undersea vehicles for defense applications.
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General Dynamics (GD) primarily serves the United States Government across its Marine Systems, Combat Systems, and Technologies segments. This includes:
- The United States Navy (for nuclear-powered submarines, surface combatants, auxiliary ships, and related maintenance and modernization services)
- Various branches of the U.S. Military (for land combat solutions, vehicles, weapons systems, and support services)
- U.S. Intelligence Agencies and Federal Civilian Customers (for information technology solutions, mission support services, and advanced technology solutions)
As a governmental entity, the United States Government is not a public company and does not have a stock symbol.
Beyond the U.S. Government, General Dynamics also serves other commercial entities. While specific company names are not provided in the background description, these major customer categories include:
- Commercial Shipping Companies: These customers purchase Jones Act ships, crude oil and product tankers, and container and cargo ships from the Marine Systems segment.
- Corporations and Business Jet Operators: Customers in the Aerospace segment include corporations, charter companies, and other organizations that purchase business jets and related maintenance, management, and support services.
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Major Suppliers for General Dynamics (GD):
- Rolls-Royce Holdings plc (RYCEY)
- Raytheon Technologies Corporation (RTX)
- Honeywell International Inc. (HON)
- Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)
- Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
- Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (ALSN)
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Phebe N. Novakovic, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Phebe N. Novakovic has served as the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of General Dynamics since 2013, having previously been the President and Chief Operating Officer in 2012. She joined General Dynamics in 2001 and held various roles, including Executive Vice President of Marine Systems and Senior Vice President of Planning and Development. Prior to her career at General Dynamics, Ms. Novakovic was an operations officer for the Central Intelligence Agency from 1983 to 1986. She also served in senior roles within the U.S. government, including Special Assistant to the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of Defense from 1997 to 2001, and worked for the White House Office of Management and Budget. In 2018, she led General Dynamics in its $9.8 billion acquisition of IT firm CSRA. Ms. Novakovic has served on the board of JPMorgan Chase since 2020 and was a director of Abbott Laboratories from 2010 to 2021.
Kimberly A. Kuryea, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Kimberly A. Kuryea assumed the role of Chief Financial Officer of General Dynamics on February 15, 2024. Before this, she was the Senior Vice President of Human Resources and Administration. Ms. Kuryea began her career at General Dynamics in 2000 as a director of financial planning. Her previous positions within the company include Corporate Controller and Vice President, Vice President of Internal Audit, and Chief Financial Officer of Advanced Information Systems.
Jason W. Aiken, Executive Vice President, Combat and Mission Systems
Jason W. Aiken currently serves as the Executive Vice President, Combat and Mission Systems at General Dynamics. He previously held the position of Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of General Dynamics from January 2014 to February 2024. During part of this period, from January 2023 to February 2024, he also served as Executive Vice President of the Technologies segment while retaining his CFO responsibilities. Mr. Aiken joined General Dynamics in June 2002 as director of consolidation accounting and progressed through roles such as staff vice president of accounting and vice president and controller. He also served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation, a General Dynamics subsidiary, from 2011 to 2014. Before joining General Dynamics, Mr. Aiken was an audit manager with Arthur Andersen LLP, where he provided audit and consulting services to various defense contractors, including General Dynamics.
Danny Deep, President
Danny Deep is the President of General Dynamics. He was formerly the president of General Dynamics Land Systems. Effective April 15, Mr. Deep will succeed Mark Roualet as Executive Vice President of the Combat Systems segment.
Mark L. Burns, Executive Vice President, President, Gulfstream
Mark L. Burns holds the title of Executive Vice President and President of Gulfstream, a segment of General Dynamics.
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```htmlKey Risks to General Dynamics' Business
- Supply Chain Disruptions: General Dynamics faces the risk of potential disruptions in its supply chain, which could impact its operations across various segments, especially in the event of prolonged shutdowns. This vulnerability can affect the timely delivery and cost-effectiveness of materials and components essential for manufacturing business jets, submarines, combat vehicles, and other defense systems.
- Program Execution Challenges and Cost Overruns: The company is exposed to risks related to program execution, particularly in its Marine Systems and Aerospace segments. This includes increasing costs in U.S. Navy shipbuilding programs that may not be fully covered by existing pricing agreements, leading to margin pressures. Additionally, difficulties in delivering new aircraft products, such as those in the Gulfstream division, can affect profitability and revenue generation.
- Volatility in Defense Spending and Evolving Government Priorities: As a major contractor for the U.S. military and other governments, General Dynamics' business is significantly influenced by defense spending levels, budgetary allocations, and the evolving priorities of its primary customers. Potential decreases in supplemental funding or shifts in Department of Defense priorities could impact demand for its products and services, particularly within its Technologies segment.
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1. **Emergence and increasing adoption of autonomous uncrewed systems (e.g., Unmanned Undersea Vehicles, Unmanned Surface Vessels, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, Unmanned Ground Vehicles) by military customers.** General Dynamics' Marine Systems and Combat Systems segments heavily rely on the design, manufacturing, and support of large, manned platforms such as nuclear-powered submarines, surface combatants, main battle tanks, and armored vehicles. A paradigm shift in military doctrine and procurement, favoring swarms of cheaper, potentially expendable, autonomous systems for certain missions, could reduce demand for these traditional, high-cost manned platforms, impacting GD's core revenue streams in these segments.
2. **Growing competition from commercial technology giants (e.g., hyperscalers like Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure) aggressively entering and expanding their presence in government IT, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity markets.** General Dynamics' Technologies segment provides information technology solutions, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and big data analytics services to military, intelligence, and federal civilian customers. Commercial tech giants possess immense scale, rapid innovation cycles, and increasingly, the necessary security accreditations, allowing them to compete vigorously for large government contracts, potentially challenging GD's established market share and profit margins in these areas.
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General Dynamics (GD) operates across diverse aerospace and defense sectors, each with substantial addressable markets globally and within the United States. Below are the estimated market sizes for their main products and services:
Aerospace Segment
- Business Jets: The global business jet market was valued between approximately USD 25.69 billion and USD 72.15 billion in 2024-2025. It is projected to grow to a range of USD 31.58 billion by 2031 to USD 113.48 billion by 2030. North America consistently holds a significant share, estimated between 37.8% and 66.25% of the global market in 2024-2025.
- Aircraft Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO): The global aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) market was valued between approximately USD 51.49 billion and USD 91.35 billion in 2024. This market is projected to reach between USD 66.2 billion by 2030 and USD 678.58 billion by 2032. North America was a leading region in MRO operations in 2023.
Marine Systems Segment
- Naval Vessels and Shipbuilding (including Submarines, Surface Combatants, and Auxiliary Ships): The global naval vessels and surface combatants market was valued between approximately USD 104.9 billion and USD 514.58 billion in 2024-2025. It is projected to reach between USD 271.1 billion by 2032 and USD 898.58 billion by 2035. North America is a significant revenue contributor in this market, with some estimates placing its share at approximately 26-30% of global naval shipbuilding, and leading the naval vessels and surface combatants market.
- Commercial Shipbuilding: The global shipbuilding market, which includes commercial vessels, was valued at approximately USD 166.20 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 274.19 billion by 2034. (Specific market size for Jones Act ships for commercial customers within the U.S. was not separately identified but is a component of the broader commercial shipbuilding market).
Combat Systems Segment
- Military Land Vehicles (including Armored Vehicles, Main Battle Tanks, Wheeled and Tracked Combat Vehicles, Munitions):
- Military Land Vehicles (overall): The global military land vehicles market was valued between approximately USD 17.3 billion and USD 56.12 billion in 2024-2026. It is projected to reach between USD 31.38 billion by 2032 and USD 83.16 billion by 2035. North America represented between 38% and 39.6% of the global market in 2023-2025.
- Armored Vehicles: The global armored vehicle market size was valued between approximately USD 19.8 billion and USD 50.24 billion in 2024-2025. It is projected to reach between USD 30.1 billion by 2034 and USD 69.51 billion by 2034. North America accounted for approximately 35-49.10% of the market share in 2024-2025.
- Munitions/Ammunition: The global ammunition market size was valued between approximately USD 20.74 billion and USD 28.10 billion in 2023-2024. It is projected to reach between USD 26.69 billion by 2032 and USD 40.13 billion by 2032. North America held the largest market share, estimated at over 34% to 41% in 2024-2025.
Technologies Segment
- Military Communications: The global military communications market was valued between approximately USD 24.2 billion and USD 42.76 billion in 2023-2024. It is expected to grow to between USD 35.4 billion by 2028 and USD 70.20 billion by 2034. North America is consistently noted as the most significant market shareholder, with a share between 38.90% and 48.33% in 2025.
- Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning in Defense: The global AI in aerospace and defense/military market was valued between approximately USD 9.13 billion and USD 25.43 billion in 2024-2025. It is projected to reach between USD 21.93 billion by 2031 and USD 65.43 billion by 2034. North America dominated this market with a share of approximately 41% in 2024.
- Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs): The global unmanned underwater vehicles market was valued between approximately USD 4.01 billion and USD 5.93 billion in 2024-2025. It is projected to grow to between USD 7.23 billion by 2029 and USD 15.03 billion by 2032. Defense applications accounted for a significant portion of this market (39.67% in 2024), and North America is identified as the largest market in 2026.
- Other IT Solutions (e.g., cloud computing, big data analytics, DevOps, SDNs, XaaS, DEOS): While specific market sizes for these individual components within the defense/government context were not available as standalone figures, they are integrated within the broader defense IT solutions, military communications, and AI in defense markets.
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Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for General Dynamics (GD) over the next 2-3 years:
- Increased Deliveries of Gulfstream G700 Business Jets: The recent FAA certification of the Gulfstream G700 has enabled General Dynamics' Aerospace segment to commence customer deliveries. The company anticipates delivering 50 to 52 G700s in 2024, with significant revenue and earnings expected from these deliveries. This product launch and subsequent ramp-up of deliveries are poised to be a substantial revenue driver for the Aerospace segment, building on strong demand for business jets.
- Sustained Demand in Combat Systems: General Dynamics is experiencing robust demand for its land combat solutions, particularly in Europe, driven by the evolving global threat environment. This has led to strong order activity and revenue growth in wheeled and tracked combat vehicles, weapons systems, munitions, and mobile bridge systems. The company expects this heightened demand to continue in the coming years.
- Continued Growth in Marine Systems: The Marine Systems segment is a consistent growth story for General Dynamics, with strong revenue performance and a significant backlog, particularly in nuclear-powered submarines. Programs like those bolstered by the AUKUS pact are expected to continue driving revenue growth in this segment.
- Substantial Backlog and Estimated Contract Value: General Dynamics consistently maintains a strong overall backlog and estimated potential contract value across its segments. As of Q4 2025, the company reported an impressive 30% growth in its company-wide backlog, ending the year with $118 billion in backlog, and a total estimated contract value of $179 billion. This substantial pipeline of contracted work provides a solid foundation for future revenue generation over the next 2-3 years.
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Share Repurchases- General Dynamics' board authorized the repurchase of an additional 10 million shares of the company's common stock on the open market on December 4, 2024.
- The company used $434 million to repurchase shares in 2023.
- General Dynamics reported annual share buybacks of $1.501 billion in 2024 and $637 million in 2025.
- General Dynamics' shares outstanding were 0.276 billion in 2023, increased to 0.277 billion in 2024, and then declined to 0.272 billion in 2025.
- General Dynamics' most recent acquisition was Progeny Systems in August 2022.
- From 2020 to 2025, the company averaged 0.2 acquisitions per year.
- General Dynamics' capital expenditures were $904 million in 2023 and $916 million in 2024.
- The company invested $1.2 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, an increase of 27% from 2024, with even more investments planned for the upcoming year.
- Primary focus areas for capital expenditures include equipment and facility enhancements to support new and existing programs across its businesses, and investments in research and development.
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 319.74 |
| Mkt Cap | 107.0 |
| Rev LTM | 64,457 |
| Op Inc LTM | 5,102 |
| FCF LTM | 4,484 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 3,138 |
| CFO LTM | 6,017 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,450 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 10.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 8.0% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 22.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 10.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 10.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 10.4% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.8% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 107.0 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/Op Inc | 16.7 |
| P/EBIT | 17.2 |
| P/E | 23.3 |
| P/CFO | 16.5 |
| Total Yield | 6.1% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.4% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Rtn | -17.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 5.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.3% |
| 3Y Rtn | 35.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -27.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -2.9% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -3.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -33.5% |
Comparison Analyses
FDA Approved Drugs Data
Expand for More| Post-Approval Fwd Returns | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDA App # | Brand Name | Generic Name | Dosage Form | FDA Approval | 3M Rtn | 6M Rtn | 1Y Rtn | 2Y Rtn | Total Rtn |
| NDA221287 | AIR | air | gas | 2022026 | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| NDA220634 | CARBON DIOXIDE, USP | carbon dioxide | gas | 6162025 | 17.7% | 23.1% | 26.3% | 26.3% | 26.3% |
| NDA216307 | HELIUM, USP | helium | gas | 7262021 | 9.0% | 9.2% | 16.0% | 21.5% | 99.6% |
| NDA209927 | MEDICAL AIR, USP | medical air | gas | 12252016 | 7.5% | 15.9% | 17.6% | -12.4% | 143.2% |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $346.44 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 93.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 01/03/1977 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -5.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $339.82 | $340.24 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | 1.9% | 1.8% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 24.7% | 21.0% |
| Downside Capture | 29.91 | 48.53 |
| Upside Capture | 3.34 | 64.94 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 18.1% | 29.5% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.18 | 0.24 | 0.33 | 0.49 | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| Up Beta | -0.25 | 0.35 | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.32 | 0.54 |
| Down Beta | 2.42 | 3.58 | 0.73 | 0.48 | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| Up Capture | -4% | -7% | 16% | 51% | 56% | 25% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 13 | 28 | 36 | 67 | 141 | 432 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 17 | 27 | 60 | 127 | 394 |
| Down Capture | -39% | -70% | 45% | 72% | 61% | 69% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 7 | 13 | 27 | 57 | 109 | 318 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 24 | 36 | 64 | 123 | 356 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD | 28.4% | 20.9% | 1.09 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 22.8% | 15.5% | 1.13 | 43.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 25.3% | 12.1% | 1.57 | 27.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 27.6% | 26.9% | 0.88 | 12.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 36.9% | 19.0% | 1.52 | 9.9% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 12.5% | 13.3% | 0.63 | 30.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -42.0% | 42.5% | -1.16 | 24.6% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD | 15.2% | 20.4% | 0.62 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 12.3% | 17.4% | 0.55 | 60.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 46.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.3% | 18.1% | 0.78 | 12.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.5% | 19.4% | 0.38 | 23.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.2% | 18.8% | 0.07 | 41.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.3% | 54.6% | 0.40 | 15.5% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with GD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GD | 11.7% | 22.7% | 0.48 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLI) | 14.1% | 20.0% | 0.62 | 73.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.3% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 59.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 0.67 | 5.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.1% | 18.0% | 0.32 | 26.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 52.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.3% | 66.9% | 1.03 | 11.9% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/2/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/29/2026 | 8.0% | 11.3% | 11.2% |
| 1/28/2026 | -2.7% | -3.1% | -4.3% |
| 10/24/2025 | 2.7% | 0.9% | -0.3% |
| 7/23/2025 | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% |
| 4/23/2025 | -3.3% | -1.0% | 1.1% |
| 1/29/2025 | -4.2% | -2.0% | -4.2% |
| 10/23/2024 | -0.5% | -1.4% | -8.5% |
| 7/24/2024 | -3.3% | -0.5% | -0.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 1.9% | 3.4% | 6.1% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -1.4% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 8.0% | 11.3% | 12.7% |
| Max Negative | -4.2% | -4.4% | -8.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 01/30/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/23/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/23/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/24/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/08/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/25/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/07/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/26/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/27/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Updated 5/13/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burns, Mark Lagrand | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 345.29 | 36,480 | 12,596,055 | 13,457,598 | Form |
| 2 | Burns, Mark Lagrand | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5132026 | 343.49 | 36,230 | 12,444,640 | 13,387,573 | Form |
| 3 | Gilliland, Marguerite Amy | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3132026 | 353.50 | 3,819 | 1,350,020 | 15,825,179 | Form |
| 4 | Novakovic, Phebe N | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 3132026 | 354.09 | 32,918 | 11,656,060 | 271,397,688 | Form |
| 5 | Gallopoulos, Gregory S | Senior VP, Gen. Counsel, Sec. | Direct | Sell | 3132026 | 354.35 | 3,729 | 1,321,360 | 44,564,096 | Form |
GD Trade Sentinel
OVERWEIGHT (Score 9-10)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The investment thesis offers a highly attractive, probability-adjusted skew of 3.84x. This is driven by a 'WIDENING' competitive moat and a 'STRONG' sector trend, evidenced by the record backlog. The market appears to be mispricing a temporary operational challenge as a structural problem, creating a compelling opportunity for a Tier 1, high-conviction investment.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Cyclical / CommodityGeneral Dynamics operates as a 'Project Hunter' whose fortunes are tied to long-cycle government defense spending and the business aviation cycle. The core investment thesis hinges on the timing of a massive production ramp-up, making it a classic cyclical investment where trailing metrics can be misleading.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary long thesis is a time-arbitrage opportunity. The market is overly focused on the modest ~4% revenue growth guidance for 2026, creating a valuation disconnect with the immense potential energy stored in the record $118 billion backlog, which is 2.2 times the FY25 revenue. The thesis is that as GD overcomes near-term supply chain and labor bottlenecks, it will unlock a multi-year revenue and EPS re-acceleration in 2027 and beyond.
- Total backlog grew to a record $118 billion in Q4 2025, a 30% year-over-year increase.
- The full-year 2025 book-to-bill ratio was a strong 1.5x, indicating new orders are significantly outpacing revenue.
- Consensus analyst estimates project an acceleration in EPS growth from ~6% in FY26 to over 11-12% in FY27 as production ramps. [4, 8]
PRIMARY RISK
The most significant risk is a failure of operational execution. Persistent supply chain bottlenecks and a shortage of skilled labor are impeding GD's ability to ramp production, particularly on the critical, high-visibility Columbia-class submarine program, which is reportedly 17 months behind schedule. Further delays would defer revenue recognition, compress margins in the low-margin Marine Systems segment, and undermine confidence in the backlog conversion story.
- Management has cited the supply chain as the main impediment to achieving Navy throughput goals in the Marine segment.
- CEO guided for only 160 business jet deliveries in 2026, a near-flat increase, attributing it to supply chain issues in aircraft completion.
- Capital expenditures are increasing significantly (up 27% in 2025) to service the backlog, which pressures free cash flow in the near term and carries the risk of inefficient deployment.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Total Backlog | Sequential quarterly growth > 2% | The core of the long thesis. Continued sequential growth demonstrates that demand is still outpacing the company's ability to deliver, ensuring a long runway for revenue. |
| Book-to-Bill Ratio | Consistently > 1.2x | This is the primary leading indicator of future revenue growth. A ratio well above 1.0x confirms the backlog is still growing and validates the re-acceleration thesis. |
| Marine Systems Operating Margin | Stabilizing above 7.0% | This segment is the source of the primary risk. Margin stability or improvement would be the clearest sign that supply chain and execution issues are being successfully managed, de-risking the overall thesis. |
The Backlog Paradox: Growth Potential vs. Execution Reality
BULL VIEW
The 30% YoY backlog growth and 1.5x book-to-bill ratio are undeniable signals of accelerating demand, providing a multi-year runway for significant revenue and EPS growth.
CORE TENSION
Can GD profitably convert its record $118B backlog, or will supply chain constraints and margin pressures lead to a significant growth and profitability disappointment?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The stock's negative reaction to Q4 2025 earnings, despite record backlog, shows the market is prioritizing weak forward guidance and margin pressure over historical order strength.
BEAR VIEW
Guidance for ~4% revenue growth in 2026, down from 10% in 2025, alongside margin pressure in key segments, signals major execution risks are already materializing.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings & Guidance Update Watch: Aerospace segment book-to-bill ratio and any revision to the full-year 2026 revenue and margin guidance. A book-to-bill below 1.1x would be a major red flag. |
April - June 2026 | President's FY2027 Budget Request Release Watch: Funding levels for Abrams tank upgrades and other major land warfare programs. A shift in budget priority to air/sea power is the key risk. |
Anytime | US Navy / GAO Report on Columbia-Class Submarine Watch: Official revision of the program's delivery delay. The current projection is 17 months behind schedule. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2025-08-13 | New U.S. Army Contract Awarded Details: General Dynamics Land Systems awarded a $93.7 million contract for Abrams tank upgrades, reinforcing the Combat Systems segment's backlog. | Modest 1.1% gain $311.36 -> $314.81 |
2025-08-27 | Key Management Presentation Details: CFO Kimberly Kuryea presented at the Jefferies Industrials Conference, reaffirming the company's strategy and financial outlook at the time. | Muted (-0.2%) $322.71 -> $322.17 |
2025-10-01 | Strategic Partnership in Shipbuilding Details: GD NASSCO signed a memorandum of agreement with South Korean shipbuilders DSEC and Samsung Heavy Industries, potentially enhancing efficiency and technology sharing. | Flat (0.1%) $337.87 -> $338.17 |
2025-10-24 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: Reported strong results with a 10.6% revenue increase and 15.8% EPS growth year-over-year, driven by impressive performance in the Aerospace segment. | Rose significantly by 2.7% $340.11 -> $349.34 |
2025-11-11 | Major Contract Win for Navy Oilers Details: General Dynamics NASSCO was awarded $1.7 billion in funding from the U.S. Navy for the construction of two additional John Lewis-class fleet replenishment oilers. | Muted (-0.8%) $350.98 -> $348.02 |
2026-01-28 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: GD reported a beat on revenue and EPS, with a record $118B backlog. However, the stock fell on weaker-than-expected 2026 guidance for 4% growth. | Slight -1.9% pullback $356.68 -> $349.95 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Volatility is moderate, not explosive. However, the Bearish sentiment, driven by a sharp guided growth deceleration and tangible execution risks, lowers conviction. We cap exposure until there is evidence the company can navigate its operational headwinds and translate backlog to profitable growth.
Diversification Alternatives
LMT
INDUSTRYOffers large-cap defense exposure but is centered on the F-35 platform, avoiding GD's specific risk of submarine industrial base constraints.
TDG
INDUSTRYSuperior margin profile and a focus on the high-margin commercial aerospace aftermarket, which is less dependent on government budget cycles and large platform execution.
General Dynamics is executing on a record $118B backlog, driven by multi-decade U.S. Navy submarine programs and international demand for armored vehicles, while its high-margin Gulfstream Aerospace unit capitalizes on a strong business jet cycle.
Filter all news through the lens of backlog growth and execution; specifically, the book-to-bill ratio, major contract awards, and operational margin performance in the Marine and Combat systems segments.
Book-to-bill ratio >1.1x for any quarter; multi-billion dollar contract awards for Virginia or Columbia-class submarines; increased orders for Abrams tanks or Stryker vehicles from NATO allies; Gulfstream deliveries meeting or exceeding guidance of ~160 aircraft for 2026.
Book-to-bill ratio falling below 1.0x for two consecutive quarters; significant delays or cost overruns reported in the Columbia-class submarine program; cancellation of a major international combat vehicle order; a sharp downturn in business jet orders or a decline in the Aerospace backlog.
Single-quarter fluctuations in Gulfstream delivery timing; minor contract awards under $500M; general commentary on defense budget debates without specific program impact; quarterly changes in cash flow due to timing of large contract payments.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the market's recognition of the earnings power embedded in the record $118B total backlog, which grew 30% YoY. This backlog provides high-visibility revenue for the next 2-3 years. The full-year 1.5x book-to-bill ratio signals continued growth ahead, particularly in long-cycle Marine and Combat Systems programs.
Naval Systems (Submarines & Warships)
$16.7B TTM (31.8% of Total) · 7.0% MarginWhat It Is
Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarines, Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines, Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, and John Lewis-class fleet replenishment oilers.
Who Pays & How
The U.S. Navy is the primary customer, paying billions per vessel via multi-year, cost-plus contracts. Switching costs are infinite as General Dynamics (specifically its Electric Boat and Bath Iron Works shipyards) is one of only two U.S. builders capable of producing nuclear-powered submarines and one of a few that can build large surface combatants, creating a duopoly with immense barriers to entry.
Competition
Technology & IT Services
$13.5B TTM (25.6% of Total) · 9.6% MarginWhat It Is
IT services, C5ISR (Command, Control, Computers, Communications, Cyber, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) systems, and mission support for defense, intelligence, and federal civilian agencies.
Who Pays & How
The U.S. Government (DoD and civilian agencies) pays for long-term IT modernization projects, network management, and mission-critical systems integration. Lock-in is created by deep integration into government networks and workflows, making it costly and risky to switch providers.
Competition
Private & Business Jets (Gulfstream)
$13.1B TTM (24.9% of Total) · 13.3% MarginWhat It Is
Gulfstream G650, G700, and G800 ultra-long-range business jets, as well as super mid-size jets. Also provides extensive aircraft service and support.
Who Pays & How
Fortune 500 corporations, high-net-worth individuals, and governments pay for high-performance, long-range private aircraft. They pay for speed, range, safety, and a premium cabin experience that minimizes travel time for executives and key personnel.
Competition
Tanks & Combat Vehicles
$9.3B TTM (17.6% of Total) · 14.4% MarginWhat It Is
M1 Abrams main battle tank, Stryker wheeled combat vehicle, light armored vehicles (LAV), and various weapons systems and munitions.
Who Pays & How
The U.S. Army and allied governments (particularly in NATO) pay for the production and upgrade of armored vehicles. They pay for battlefield superiority, vehicle survivability, and interoperability with existing forces. Switching costs are extremely high due to integrated logistics, training, and supply chains.
Competition
Industry Resources
| Industrials Resources |
| IndustryWeek |
| Manufacturing.net |
| Aviation Week |
| Aerospace & Defense Resources |
| Defense News |
| FlightGlobal |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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