Papa John's International (PZZA)
Market Price (7/28/2026): $30.38 | Market Cap: $1.0 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Papa John's International (PZZA)
Market Price (7/28/2026): $30.38Market Cap: $1.0 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, Dividend Yield is 6.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.7% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -121% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 92% Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.7% Key risksPZZA key risks include [1] operational inefficiencies within its supply chain and commissary system and [2] managing a brand reputation historically impacted by negative consumer sentiment. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.0%, Dividend Yield is 6.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 4.7% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -121% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 17% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 92% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.4%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -1.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -7.7% |
| Key risksPZZA key risks include [1] operational inefficiencies within its supply chain and commissary system and [2] managing a brand reputation historically impacted by negative consumer sentiment. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Papa John's International (PZZA) stock has lost about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Papa John's reported a significant earnings miss and weak North America comparable sales for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 29, 2026. The company's adjusted diluted earnings per common share was $0.32, falling short of analyst consensus estimates ranging from $0.37 to $0.40. Total revenues declined by 7.7% to $478.6 million, missing the anticipated $485 million. North America comparable sales decreased by 6.4%, driven by a 5.2% drop at domestic company-owned restaurants and a 6.7% decline at North America franchised restaurants. Management cited a cautious consumer environment and a highly promotional quick-service restaurant (QSR) marketplace for these declines.
2. The decline in Q1 2026 revenue was partially due to the strategic refranchising of 85 domestic company-owned restaurants in fiscal Q4 2025. This refranchising activity reduced revenues by approximately $25 million compared to the prior year period. While this move is intended to streamline operations and improve long-term free cash flow and franchisee profitability by shifting towards an asset-light model, it directly impacted reported revenue for the quarter.
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Papa John's International (PZZA) stock has lost about 5% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Papa John's reported a significant earnings miss and weak North America comparable sales for fiscal Q1 2026, which ended March 29, 2026. The company's adjusted diluted earnings per common share was $0.32, falling short of analyst consensus estimates ranging from $0.37 to $0.40. Total revenues declined by 7.7% to $478.6 million, missing the anticipated $485 million. North America comparable sales decreased by 6.4%, driven by a 5.2% drop at domestic company-owned restaurants and a 6.7% decline at North America franchised restaurants. Management cited a cautious consumer environment and a highly promotional quick-service restaurant (QSR) marketplace for these declines.
2. The decline in Q1 2026 revenue was partially due to the strategic refranchising of 85 domestic company-owned restaurants in fiscal Q4 2025. This refranchising activity reduced revenues by approximately $25 million compared to the prior year period. While this move is intended to streamline operations and improve long-term free cash flow and franchisee profitability by shifting towards an asset-light model, it directly impacted reported revenue for the quarter.
3. A key management change and subsequent analyst downgrades contributed to negative sentiment. Papa John's announced a CFO transition on June 30, 2026. Following this, on July 13, 2026, Bank of America downgraded PZZA from 'Neutral' to 'Underperform', lowering its price target from $42 to $34. Analysts cited concerns over the CFO's departure, persistent competitive pressures, and a less optimistic outlook for same-store sales growth. Bank of America also revised down its fiscal Q2 North American same-store sales growth forecast to negative 6.7% and its adjusted EBITDA forecast to $199 million. Additionally, Zacks Research downgraded PZZA from 'Hold' to 'Strong Sell'.
4. The company continues to face a challenging and competitive macroeconomic environment within the restaurant industry. The broader QSR market is characterized by intense promotional activity, which has put pressure on Papa John's, particularly in North America. Analysts noted that competitors like Domino's Pizza demonstrated stronger performance in Q1 2026, benefiting from a larger domestic system sales base that provides lower costs and stronger unit economics, allowing for greater investments in customer experience and value. This competitive landscape and cautious consumer spending continue to impact Papa John's ability to drive transaction volume.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.3% change in PZZA stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -4.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.98 | 30.29 | -5.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,054 | 2,014 | -1.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.5% | 1.4% | -4.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 34.5 | 34.9 | 1.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 33 | 33 | -0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.3% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PZZA | -5.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | -4.9% |
| Sector (XLY) | 1.7% | 2.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -19.2% change in PZZA stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.7% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 37.48 | 30.29 | -19.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,086 | 2,014 | -3.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.8% | 1.4% | -22.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 32.2 | 34.9 | 8.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 33 | 33 | -0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -19.2% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PZZA | -19.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.7% | 1.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | -7.0% | 0.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -35.1% change in PZZA stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -62.5% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 46.66 | 30.29 | -35.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,064 | 2,014 | -2.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.8% | 1.4% | -62.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.6 | 34.9 | 78.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 33 | 33 | -0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -35.1% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PZZA | -35.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.6% | 10.5% |
| Sector (XLY) | 2.6% | 10.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -53.8% change in PZZA stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/27/2026 was primarily driven by a -62.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7272026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 65.55 | 30.29 | -53.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 2,086 | 2,014 | -3.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.8% | 1.4% | -62.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.1 | 34.9 | 24.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 34 | 33 | 3.7% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -53.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/27/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PZZA | -53.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.6% | 22.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 33.5% | 21.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PZZA Return | 59% | -37% | -5% | -44% | -2% | -19% | -58% |
| Peers Return | 29% | -15% | 21% | 7% | -4% | -4% | 30% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 8% | 97% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PZZA Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 42% | 25% | 42% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 58% | 42% | 55% | 55% | 43% | 43% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PZZA Max Drawdown | -27% | -48% | -34% | -48% | -41% | -23% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -13% | -31% | -19% | -21% | -25% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: DPZ, YUM, MCD, SBUX, CMG. See PZZA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/27/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PZZA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -19.7% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 24.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 81 days | 105 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 169 days | 62 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -12.5% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 14.3% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 50 days | 123 days |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | ||
| % Loss | -18.8% | -15.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 23.1% | 18.2% |
| Time to Breakeven | 176 days | 125 days |
In The Past
Papa John's International's stock fell -37.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 61.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | PZZA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.9% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 61.1% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 79 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -47.3% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 89.6% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 33 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 169 days | 62 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -42.4% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 73.6% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 112 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
Papa John's International's stock fell -37.9% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 61.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Papa John's International (PZZA)
Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA) is a leading global pizza company that operates and franchises restaurants under the widely recognized Papa John's brand. Its core business involves delivering and carrying out pizza, with a significant presence in international markets also offering dine-in options. The company's operational model is two-fold, encompassing both company-owned restaurants and a substantial network of franchised locations, allowing for broad market penetration and growth.
The primary product offering is pizza, complemented by a range of side items typical of a pizza restaurant. Papa John's supports its North American restaurant network through commissaries, ensuring efficient supply and quality control. The company serves a diverse customer base globally, catering to consumers looking for convenient, quality pizza options for delivery and takeout in their local markets, extending across 50 countries and territories with over 5,600 restaurants.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Papa John's International (PZZA):
- Essentially, a direct competitor to Domino's Pizza, focusing on a similar pizza delivery and carryout model through a strong franchise system.
- Think of it as the McDonald's of the pizza world, operating a vast network of franchised and company-owned stores specializing in pizza delivery and carryout.
- Like Pizza Hut, but as a standalone global company primarily focused on pizza delivery and carryout, largely through franchising.
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- Prepared Food Sales: Selling pizzas, side items, and beverages directly to consumers through company-owned and franchised restaurants.
- Franchise Licensing & Support: Granting licenses to independent operators to run Papa John's restaurants and providing ongoing operational assistance.
- Ingredient Supply: Distributing proprietary food ingredients and paper products to its network of company-owned and franchised restaurants.
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Papa John's International (PZZA) operates a business model that includes both company-owned restaurants and a significant number of franchised restaurants. As a franchisor, the parent company generates revenue from a diverse set of sources related to these operations.
Given that the vast majority of its restaurants (over 5,050 out of 5,650 as of December 2021) are franchised, a primary customer group for Papa John's International, the public company, consists of its franchisees. These are independent business entities (other companies) that operate Papa John's restaurants under a franchise agreement.
Papa John's International sells franchise rights, collects ongoing royalties and fees, and often supplies ingredients and other products (through its commissaries) to these franchisees. Therefore, the company primarily sells to these other companies, which are its franchisees.
These franchisees are typically small, privately held businesses and do not have public company symbols. It is not feasible to list individual franchisee names due to their large number and private nature.
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Todd Penegor, President and Chief Executive Officer
Todd Penegor was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of Papa John's International in August 2024. He brings 20 years of experience in the restaurant and consumer goods industries. Prior to joining Papa John's, Penegor served as President and CEO of The Wendy's Company, where he also held the role of Chief Financial Officer. During his time at Wendy's, the company saw substantial growth in sales, earnings, and new restaurant counts, expanding its global footprint to over 7,000 restaurants. Before Wendy's, he held various leadership positions at Kellogg Company, including Vice President of Kellogg and President of U.S. Snacks. He also previously worked at Ford Motor Company. Penegor holds a Bachelor of Arts in Accounting and an MBA in Finance from Michigan State University.
Ravi Thanawala, Chief Financial Officer and President, North America
Ravi Thanawala was promoted to Chief Financial Officer and President, North America in November 2025. He previously served as Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, International since September 2024. Thanawala also held the position of Interim Chief Executive Officer of Papa John's from March 2024 to August 2024. He joined the company as Chief Financial Officer in July 2023. Before Papa John's, he was Chief Financial Officer of Nike North America at Nike, Inc. During his seven years at Nike, he also served as Global VP and CFO of the Converse brand, overseeing its international franchise model and guiding Nike's global omnichannel direct-to-consumer strategy, successfully turning around the Converse brand. Prior to Nike, Thanawala spent eight years at ANN INC., where he held finance and operations roles, eventually becoming CFO of the ANN INC. business.
Amanda Clark, Chief International and Development Officer
Amanda Clark was appointed Chief International and Development Officer in May 2022. She joined Papa John's in February 2020 as Chief Development Officer. Before joining Papa John's, Clark spent seven years at Taco Bell, where her roles included Executive Vice President of Restaurant Experience and Senior Vice President, North America Development. She also served as General Manager for Taco Bell Canada. Prior to Taco Bell, she worked at Procter & Gamble for nearly 12 years, managing brands such as Olay, Pampers, and Oral-B.
Marvin Boakye, Chief People & Diversity Officer
Marvin Boakye was appointed Papa John's first Chief People Officer in January 2019 and currently serves as Chief People & Diversity Officer. He brings over 25 years of human resources experience, specializing in change management and culture transformation. Boakye previously served as Vice President of Human Resources at the petroleum company Andeavor, which was acquired by Marathon Petroleum. His prior experience also includes being Chief Human Resources Officer for MTS Allstream (now part of Bell Canada) and holding senior HR positions at Goodyear, Pulte Group, and The Home Depot.
Chris Lyn-Sue, Senior Vice President, General Manager of International
Chris Lyn-Sue was promoted to Senior Vice President, General Manager of International in November 2025. He has held various senior leadership positions at Papa John's since 2022, including Vice President of International Markets and Vice President of Marketing. He also served as Global Head of Marketing from July 2024 through November 2024, overseeing marketing efforts for the U.S., Canada, and International business units. Lyn-Sue's background includes premium brand management at Bacardi, where he managed Grey Goose vodka and Dewar's Scotch whisky, and digital media marketing at CBS, contributing to CBS Sports' product marketing strategy.
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The key risks to Papa John's International (symbol: PZZA) are:
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Intense Competition and Declining North American Sales: Papa John's operates within a highly competitive quick-service restaurant (QSR) pizza industry, where rivals aggressively invest in promotional campaigns and brand awareness. This intense competition, coupled with weaker consumer sentiment, has contributed to declining comparable sales in the North American market, forcing a strategic shift towards operational efficiency and international growth to stabilize the business.
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Reliance on Key Suppliers and Commodity Price Volatility: The company is heavily dependent on a sole supplier for the majority of its domestic and international cheese, which is its largest ingredient cost. Fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly for cheese, can significantly impact Papa John's profitability and supply chain consistency.
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Substantial Debt and Negative Shareholder Equity: Papa John's carries a significant debt load, reported as approximately $722.3 million as of year-end 2025, and has experienced negative shareholder equity. This high leverage and negative equity position are considered significant financial red flags, as the company's debt is not well covered by its operating cash flow or earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT).
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The proliferation of virtual restaurant brands and ghost kitchens operating solely for delivery poses a clear emerging threat. These models leverage lower overhead costs (no need for prime retail locations, reduced front-of-house staff) and greater operational flexibility to offer diverse food options, including pizza and competing convenient meal solutions, directly to consumers through third-party delivery platforms or their own. This allows them to potentially undercut traditional full-service and quick-service restaurant delivery models like Papa John's by bypassing the significant fixed costs associated with maintaining a physical restaurant presence, representing a fundamental shift in the restaurant industry's structure towards delivery efficiency and menu adaptability.
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Papa John's International (symbol: PZZA) operates within the global pizza market, specifically focusing on pizza delivery and carryout services.
The addressable markets for Papa John's main products and services can be quantified as follows:
- Global Pizza Foodservice Market: The global pizza foodservice market size is estimated to be valued at approximately US$ 320.0 billion in 2026 and is projected to reach US$ 585.0 billion by 2033. This market's growth is driven by increasing urbanization, rising disposable incomes, and a significant consumer shift towards convenience through online delivery and digital ordering platforms.
- North American Pizza Market: North America is a dominant region in the pizza market. The North American pizza market is expected to hold a 39% share of the pizza foodservice market in 2026.
- United States Pizza Market (Restaurants): The market size for Pizza Restaurants in the U.S. is projected to be $49.5 billion in 2025. Separately, the U.S. pizza industry market size was estimated at $69.4 billion in 2025.
- United States Quick-Service Pizza and Delivery Market: U.S. consumers spent approximately USD 42.1 billion at quick-service pizza joints in 2024. Additionally, U.S. consumers spent about USD 16.9 billion on pizza deliveries in 2024. Carry-out and take-away operations commanded 45.04% of the global pizza foodservice market in 2025, and delivery-only ghost kitchens are forecast to post a 10.27% CAGR to 2031.
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Papa John's International (PZZA) is focusing on several key initiatives to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, despite a challenging recent performance. These drivers center around strategic expansion, product innovation, and enhanced customer engagement through technology and value propositions.
Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Papa John's International:
- International Expansion and New Unit Development: Papa John's plans for continued global unit growth, with a particular emphasis on international markets. The company projects significant international openings, aiming for 180 to 200 gross new restaurants across its international markets in 2025. This expansion strategy includes a focus on both established and emerging international markets to grow its global footprint and customer base.
- Menu Innovation and Product Diversification: A core driver involves a consistent flow of impactful menu innovation and product diversification to expand its addressable market and drive sales. This includes re-imagining side offerings at accessible price points to boost add-on sales and margin expansion, and expanding beyond traditional QSR pizza to include new menu items, such as the Pan Pizza offering, which is planned for international markets. The company is also testing new concepts like protein-infused dough.
- Enhanced Digital Platform and Loyalty Program Engagement: Investments in technology are expected to drive revenue growth through improved customer acquisition and retention. Papa John's has rolled out a consolidated omnichannel app, leading to faster response times and improved conversion rates. The "Papa Rewards" loyalty program, which has grown to nearly 41 million members, is being leveraged to stimulate demand and fine-tune promotions, as loyalty members order significantly more frequently than non-members. Future plans include incorporating AI for labor and inventory optimization and advanced voice or group ordering.
- Strategic Refranchising and Operational Efficiency: While primarily impacting profitability, the strategic refranchising of company-owned restaurants and a comprehensive review of non-customer-facing costs are intended to create flexibility, provide fuel for future growth, and improve the earnings power for both company and franchise restaurants. Strengthening the long-term health of the Papa John's system through well-capitalized franchisees is seen as unlocking future growth opportunities. Cost savings from these initiatives can free up capital for investments that indirectly contribute to revenue expansion.
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Share Repurchases
- On October 28, 2021, Papa John's Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program with an indefinite duration for up to $425.0 million of the Company's common stock.
- In March 2023, the company repurchased 2,176,928 shares from Starboard Value LP for approximately $180 million.
- Total share repurchases in 2023 amounted to $210.3 million. As of February 27, 2025, Papa John's had $90.2 million remaining available under its current share repurchase authorization.
Capital Expenditures
- Papa John's projected capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 to be between $75 million and $85 million.
- The company anticipates capital expenditures in 2026 to range from $70 million to $80 million.
- These capital expenditures are primarily focused on restaurant development and technology enhancements.
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Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 125.73 |
| Mkt Cap | 42.0 |
| Rev LTM | 10,312 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,265 |
| FCF LTM | 1,577 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,460 |
| CFO LTM | 2,115 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,928 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 8.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 16.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 12.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.5% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commissary revenues | 930 | 900 | 925 | 1,168 | 1,074 |
| Company-owned restaurant sales | 676 | 725 | 761 | 708 | 778 |
| Franchise royalties and fees | 191 | 187 | 195 | 191 | 187 |
| Advertising funds revenue | 167 | 164 | 157 | ||
| Other revenues | 91 | 84 | 98 | 327 | 324 |
| Eliminations | -292 | -295 | |||
| International other revenues | 0 | 0 | |||
| Total | 2,054 | 2,059 | 2,136 | 2,102 | 2,068 |
| $ Mil | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic Franchising | 52 | 50 | 46 | 48 | |
| Domestic commissaries | 35 | 25 | 20 | 22 | |
| Domestic Restaurants | 33 | 25 | 5 | 48 | |
| Variable interest entities | 19 | ||||
| International | -9 | -5 | 1 | -0 | 1 |
| All Others | 3 | -2 | 4 | ||
| Commissary Sales | 22 | ||||
| Franchise and Development Fees | 51 | ||||
| Restaurant Sales | 21 | ||||
| Total | 130 | 96 | 74 | 116 | 98 |
| $ Mil | 2004 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic Restaurants | 145 | |||
| Domestic commissaries | 77 | |||
| All Others | 12 | 13 | 11 | 8 |
| International | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
| Commissary Sales | 68 | 66 | ||
| Restaurant Sales | 156 | 151 | 156 | |
| Total | 237 | 240 | 232 | 163 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $30.29 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 1.0 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/08/1993 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -43.1% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $33.49 | $36.54 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -9.5% | -17.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 50.2% | 51.3% |
| Downside Capture | 19.56 | 57.12 |
| Upside Capture | -75.95 | 7.68 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -13.8% | 10.0% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.37 | -0.81 | -0.26 | 0.07 | 0.44 | 0.67 |
| Up Beta | 1.24 | -0.33 | -0.13 | -0.10 | 0.81 | 0.65 |
| Down Beta | -0.76 | -1.50 | -1.77 | -0.21 | 0.33 | 0.81 |
| Up Capture | -23% | -42% | 35% | 16% | 11% | 15% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 13 | 23 | 37 | 61 | 125 | 363 |
| Down Capture | -105% | -96% | -16% | 39% | 66% | 93% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 8 | 18 | 26 | 64 | 127 | 388 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PZZA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PZZA | -26.4% | 51.2% | -0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 0.1% | 19.2% | -0.12 | 8.5% |
| Equity (SPY) | 17.6% | 12.7% | 1.00 | 10.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 20.8% | 28.1% | 0.66 | 8.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 29.6% | 19.5% | 1.21 | 8.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.9% | 14.1% | 0.69 | 2.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.0% | 43.0% | -1.31 | 5.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PZZA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PZZA | -20.3% | 42.1% | -0.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 5.6% | 24.0% | 0.19 | 32.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.2% | 17.1% | 0.59 | 33.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.2% | 18.4% | 0.75 | 5.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.7% | 19.5% | 0.38 | 8.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.3% | 18.9% | 0.07 | 30.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.8% | 53.5% | 0.47 | 11.0% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PZZA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PZZA | -5.8% | 42.0% | -0.00 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 11.7% | 22.1% | 0.49 | 33.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 30.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.4% | 16.1% | 0.58 | 5.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 6.9% | 18.0% | 0.30 | 11.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.2% | 20.7% | 0.21 | 25.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.0% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 11.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -2.8% | -3.2% | -4.2% |
| 2/26/2026 | -8.6% | -8.9% | -3.5% |
| 11/6/2025 | 3.8% | -1.2% | 0.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | 8.6% | 17.3% | 20.2% |
| 5/8/2025 | 15.9% | 20.9% | 51.6% |
| 2/27/2025 | 1.4% | -3.1% | -11.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | -4.6% | -12.7% | -15.4% |
| 8/8/2024 | 1.7% | 5.6% | 11.6% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -6.5% | -6.9% |
| Max Positive | 15.9% | 20.9% | 51.6% |
| Max Negative | -11.6% | -16.4% | -17.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/7/2026 | -2.8% | -3.2% | -4.2% |
| 2/26/2026 | -8.6% | -8.9% | -3.5% |
| 11/6/2025 | 3.8% | -1.2% | 0.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | 8.6% | 17.3% | 20.2% |
| 5/8/2025 | 15.9% | 20.9% | 51.6% |
| 2/27/2025 | 1.4% | -3.1% | -11.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | -4.6% | -12.7% | -15.4% |
| 8/8/2024 | 1.7% | 5.6% | 11.6% |
| 5/9/2024 | -6.8% | -8.2% | -17.0% |
| 2/29/2024 | 2.5% | 1.5% | -5.1% |
| 1/8/2024 | 1.9% | 3.6% | 6.8% |
| 11/2/2023 | -3.5% | 2.1% | 4.4% |
| 8/3/2023 | 0.8% | -0.3% | -6.7% |
| 5/4/2023 | 1.7% | 4.1% | -4.1% |
| 2/23/2023 | -6.1% | -6.9% | -16.2% |
| 11/3/2022 | 2.2% | 6.1% | 14.3% |
| 8/4/2022 | -3.0% | -6.1% | -16.5% |
| 5/5/2022 | -2.9% | -11.8% | -4.9% |
| 2/24/2022 | -0.7% | 1.5% | -6.3% |
| 11/4/2021 | 13.6% | 4.5% | 1.1% |
| 8/5/2021 | 4.0% | 5.7% | 13.2% |
| 5/6/2021 | 7.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
| 2/25/2021 | -11.6% | -16.4% | -14.8% |
| 11/5/2020 | 8.1% | 10.1% | 6.5% |
| 8/6/2020 | -1.6% | -3.8% | -7.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 12 | 14 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 4.5% | 6.8% |
| Median Negative | -3.5% | -6.5% | -6.9% |
| Max Positive | 15.9% | 20.9% | 51.6% |
| Max Negative | -11.6% | -16.4% | -17.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 11/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/07/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/08/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/27/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 11/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/08/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/09/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/29/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 11/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/03/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/04/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 11/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 08/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/06/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 11/05/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 08/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 05/06/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/26/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 11/06/2019 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2019 | 08/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/27/2026Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/7/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Global system-wide restaurant sales | Affirmed | Guidance: 0 for 2026 | |||||
| 2026 North America comparable sales | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.02 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: -0.03 for 2026 | |
| 2026 International comparable sales | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.03 for 2026 | |
| 2026 North America gross openings | 40 | 45 | 50 | ||||
| 2026 International gross openings | 180 | 200 | 220 | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 200.00 Mil | 205.00 Mil | 210.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 205.00 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Adjusted Depreciation and amortization | 70.00 Mil | 72.50 Mil | 75.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 Interest expense (net) | 35.00 Mil | 37.50 Mil | 40.00 Mil | ||||
| 2026 GAAP effective tax rate | 30.0% | 32.0% | 34.0% | ||||
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 70.00 Mil | 75.00 Mil | 80.00 Mil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 75.00 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Global system-wide restaurant sales | 0 | ||||||
| 2026 North America comparable sales | -0.04 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.8% | Lower New | Actual: -0.02 for 2025 | |
| 2026 International comparable sales | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.04 | -2.5% | Lower New | Actual: 0.06 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | 200.00 Mil | 205.00 Mil | 210.00 Mil | 5.1% | Higher New | Actual: 195.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 70.00 Mil | 75.00 Mil | 80.00 Mil | -6.2% | Lower New | Actual: 80.00 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Corporate cost savings | 13.00 Mil | ||||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 11/6/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 System-wide sales | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | ||||
| 2025 North America comparable sales | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.02 | ||||
| 2025 International comparable sales | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.06 | ||||
| 2025 North America gross openings | 85 | 90 | 95 | ||||
| 2025 International gross openings | 180 | 190 | 200 | ||||
| 2025 Adjusted EBITDA | 190.00 Mil | 195.00 Mil | 200.00 Mil | ||||
| 2025 Depreciation and amortization | 80.00 Mil | 87.50 Mil | 95.00 Mil | ||||
| 2025 Adjusted Depreciation and amortization | 70.00 Mil | 72.50 Mil | 75.00 Mil | ||||
| 2025 Interest expense | 40.00 Mil | 41.00 Mil | 42.00 Mil | ||||
| 2025 Effective tax rate | 27.0% | 28.5% | 30.0% | 1.5% | |||
| 2025 Capital expenditures | 75.00 Mil | 80.00 Mil | 85.00 Mil | 23.1% | Raised | Guidance: 65.00 Mil for 2025 | |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 28, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
Industry Resources
| Consumer Discretionary Resources |
| Retail Dive |
| Business of Fashion (BoF) |
| WWD (Women's Wear Daily) |
| National Retail Federation (NRF) |
| McKinsey & Company - Consumer |
| Mintel Consumer Trends |
| Restaurants Resources |
| Nation's Restaurant News |
| Restaurant Business |
| QSR Magazine |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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