Las Vegas Sands (LVS)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $52.8 | Market Cap: $35.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Casinos & Gaming
Las Vegas Sands (LVS)
Market Price (4/25/2026): $52.8Market Cap: $35.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Casinos & Gaming
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, Dividend Yield is 2.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 6.4% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 25% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 3.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.2 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.2 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Markets & Betting. Themes include Experiential Retail, Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79% | Key risksLVS key risks include [1] its complete operational dependence on the Macao and Singapore markets and [2] a substantial debt burden. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.6%, Dividend Yield is 2.4%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 6.4% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 25% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 3.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.2 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 5.2 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 37% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization, and Markets & Betting. Themes include Experiential Retail, Travel & Leisure Tech, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -23%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -79% |
| Key risksLVS key risks include [1] its complete operational dependence on the Macao and Singapore markets and [2] a substantial debt burden. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Persistent margin pressure in Macau operations despite revenue growth. Las Vegas Sands' Macau operations faced increased margin pressure. In Q4 2025, Macau's EBITDA margin was 28.9%, a decrease of 390 basis points from the prior year. Similarly, in Q1 2026, the adjusted EBITDA margin for Macau properties would have been 29.6%, down 200 basis points compared to Q1 2025. Management highlighted "near-term margin pressure from service investment", increased event costs, higher payroll expenses, and elevated player reinvestments as contributing factors, indicating concerns about sustainable profitability in a crucial market.
2. Moderating growth expectations for the Macau gaming market. While Macau's gaming revenue showed year-over-year growth, the Macau Economic Association cautioned in January 2026 that growth momentum in the gaming sector was "beginning to moderate" towards the end of 2025. This outlook, despite a strong January 2026 Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) of $2.81 billion, a 24% increase from January 2025, suggests a less robust recovery trajectory than initially anticipated post-pandemic. Some analysts also noted Las Vegas Sands' "overexposure to the lower-margin base mass gaming segment" in Macau as a potential limiter for upside.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -18.4% change in LVS stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -32.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 64.75 | 52.81 | -18.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,264 | 13,740 | 12.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.7% | 13.4% | 5.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.4 | 19.2 | -32.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 682 | 669 | 1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -18.4% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LVS | -18.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.2% | 36.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.6% | 35.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -0.9% change in LVS stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -26.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 53.29 | 52.81 | -0.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,615 | 13,740 | 18.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.2% | 13.4% | 10.3% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.2 | 19.2 | -26.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 695 | 669 | 3.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -0.9% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LVS | -0.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 7.0% | 32.2% |
| Sector (XLY) | -0.7% | 31.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 39.6% change in LVS stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.6% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 37.84 | 52.81 | 39.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 11,298 | 13,740 | 21.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.8% | 13.4% | 4.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 18.8 | 19.2 | 1.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 720 | 669 | 7.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 39.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LVS | 39.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 28.1% | 53.0% |
| Sector (XLY) | 20.9% | 50.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.2% change in LVS stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026 was primarily driven by a -69.9% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4242026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 54.57 | 52.81 | -3.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,110 | 13,740 | 234.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 44.6% | 13.4% | -69.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.8 | 19.2 | -15.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 764 | 669 | 14.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/24/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| LVS | -3.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 79.8% | 44.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | 62.3% | 42.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| LVS Return | -37% | 28% | 3% | 6% | 29% | -20% | -8% |
| Peers Return | 11% | -28% | 12% | -12% | 2% | 7% | -15% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 4% | 89% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| LVS Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 50% | 42% | 50% | 25% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 37% | 52% | 47% | 62% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| LVS Max Drawdown | -43% | -20% | -8% | -22% | -40% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -45% | -9% | -28% | -28% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: MGM, WYNN, CZR, BYD, PENN. See LVS Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/24/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | LVS | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -54.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 119.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,279 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -49.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 96.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -40.4% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 67.8% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -99.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 10080.3% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MGM, WYNN, CZR, BYD, PENN
In The Past
Las Vegas Sands's stock fell -54.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/15/2021. A -54.5% loss requires a 119.6% gain to breakeven.
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About Las Vegas Sands (LVS)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Las Vegas Sands (LVS):
- MGM Resorts International, but with a greater focus on luxury properties and high-roller gaming in major international hubs like Macao and Singapore.
- A blend of Hilton Hotels and Caesars Entertainment, focused on creating massive, high-end integrated resorts with gaming, luxury accommodations, and convention facilities.
- Like Disney Parks, but for adults, combining luxury hotels, casinos, and world-class entertainment and convention centers into massive destination resorts.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Gaming Operations: Provides casino gaming experiences through various table games and slot machines within its integrated resorts.
- Hotel Accommodations: Offers luxury lodging and guest room services at its high-end resort properties.
- Convention and Exhibition Facilities: Manages extensive venues for hosting meetings, conventions, and trade shows.
- Retail Malls: Operates upscale shopping centers featuring a variety of retail brands within its integrated resorts.
- Food and Beverage Services: Delivers diverse dining options through numerous restaurants, including celebrity chef establishments, and bars.
- Entertainment Services: Curates and hosts a range of live shows, attractions, and events for guests at its resorts.
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Major Customers of Las Vegas Sands (LVS)
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) primarily sells its services and experiences directly to individuals rather than other companies. Its integrated resorts cater to a diverse clientele. The major categories of customers it serves include:
- Leisure Tourists and Gamblers: This category encompasses individuals and groups visiting LVS properties for leisure, vacation, entertainment, and gaming activities. It includes both mass-market tourists seeking a comprehensive resort experience (accommodations, dining, entertainment, shopping) and high-stakes gamblers participating in casino activities.
- Business Travelers and Convention/Exhibition Attendees: Individuals who attend or participate in conventions, trade shows, corporate meetings, and other business events hosted at LVS's extensive convention and exhibition facilities, such as the Sands Expo and Convention Center in Las Vegas or convention spaces within its Asian properties.
- Luxury Shoppers and Diners: This category includes patrons who frequent the high-end retail malls, celebrity chef restaurants, and other premium amenities within LVS integrated resorts, often seeking a luxury lifestyle experience independent of or in addition to staying overnight or gaming.
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- Light & Wonder, Inc. (LNW)
- International Game Technology PLC (IGT)
- Aristocrat Leisure Limited (ALL.AX)
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Patrick Dumont is Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Dumont became Chairman and CEO of Las Vegas Sands on March 1, 2026, after serving as President and Chief Operating Officer since January 2021. He joined Sands in 2010 and previously held senior strategy and finance roles, including Chief Financial Officer starting in 2016. Mr. Dumont has over 25 years of experience in management, development, operations, and corporate finance. He was instrumental in repositioning the company's property portfolio by executing the sales of both Sands Bethlehem and The Venetian Las Vegas. Prior to joining Sands, he worked in investment banking at Miller Buckfire and Bear Stearns. Mr. Dumont also serves as the governor of the Dallas Mavericks, an NBA team majority-owned by him and his family. Robert G. Goldstein, who previously served as Chairman and CEO, transitioned to a Senior Advisor role on March 1, 2026.
Randy Hyzak is Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Hyzak was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Las Vegas Sands in January 2021. Before this, he served as Senior Vice President & Chief Accounting Officer within the company. Prior to joining Las Vegas Sands, Mr. Hyzak held the position of Vice President & Chief Accounting Officer at Freescale Semiconductor, Ltd.. He began his career as a Senior Manager at Ernst & Young LLP.
D. Zachary Hudson is Executive Vice President and Global General Counsel. Mr. Hudson oversees the company's legal, compliance, and government relations functions, ensuring adherence to laws in all operating jurisdictions and advising leadership on company interests. He joined Las Vegas Sands in September 2019.
Miriam Adelson is the majority shareholder of Las Vegas Sands. Dr. Adelson, an Israeli-American physician, businesswoman, and philanthropist, became the owner of Las Vegas Sands after the passing of her husband, Sheldon Adelson, in 2021. She remains the majority owner, controlling approximately 56.6% of the company's outstanding stock through personal ownership and family trusts. Dr. Adelson is also the publisher of Israel Hayom and, with her family, owns the Las Vegas Review-Journal. She founded addiction treatment clinics in Israel and Las Vegas.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Las Vegas Sands (LVS) primarily stem from its significant concentration in the integrated resort and gaming markets of Asia, particularly Macao and Singapore. These risks include:
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Regulatory and Geopolitical Risks in Asia: Las Vegas Sands faces substantial risks due to the highly regulated nature of the gaming industry in its key Asian markets. In Macao, there is an ongoing push from the government to diversify the economy away from gaming, which could adversely affect foreign-owned casinos and their investors. Beijing's directives could lead to tighter oversight and increased political risks for businesses operating in the region. The company is subject to extensive regulations, including gaming laws and anti-corruption measures, and any changes or non-compliance could significantly impact operations and revenue streams. Furthermore, escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and broader geopolitical headwinds could result in increased regulatory scrutiny or even affect the renewal of gaming licenses in Macao, although forced sales are currently deemed unlikely. The significant increase in suspicious transaction reports (STRs) from Macao gaming operators also highlights ongoing risks of money laundering and illicit activities, potentially leading to more stringent security and regulatory oversight.
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Economic Fluctuations, Market Dependence, and Competition in Asian Markets: Las Vegas Sands' business performance is heavily dependent on the economic health of China, the regulatory environment set by the Beijing government, and tourism flows into Macao and Singapore due to its concentrated operations in these two regions. A weakening Chinese economy and broader macroeconomic challenges are anticipated to put pressure on Macao's gaming revenues. The company also operates within a highly competitive global integrated resort industry, facing strong rivals such as MGM Resorts International, Wynn Resorts, Galaxy Entertainment Group, and Melco Resorts & Entertainment. These competitors actively vie for market share through various strategies, including pricing, service innovation, and brand development. Additionally, Macao's position as a leading casino hub is threatened by emerging gaming markets across Asia, including Japan and Thailand, which could divert visitors and revenue.
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Threat of Online Gaming: The growing prevalence of regulated digital gambling markets and the potential legalization of online casinos present a risk to traditional brick-and-mortar casino operators like Las Vegas Sands. As consumers increasingly turn to online platforms for their convenience and accessibility, land-based resorts could see a decline in patronage and revenue. Las Vegas Sands' decision to withdraw its bid for a New York gambling license was partly influenced by concerns regarding the potential authorization of online casino licenses in the state, highlighting the perceived threat of iGaming to its business model.
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The potential legalization and development of integrated resorts in new Asian jurisdictions, particularly Thailand, represents a clear emerging threat. This would introduce significant new competition for the same pool of high-value customers currently served by Las Vegas Sands' properties in Macao and Singapore, potentially diluting market share and revenue in the lucrative Asian gaming and tourism market.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) operates integrated resorts primarily in Macao and Singapore, following the sale of its Las Vegas properties in February 2022. The addressable markets for its main products and services in these regions are as follows:
Macao
- Gaming: The gross gaming revenue (GGR) in Macao's casino industry was approximately US$30.85 billion in 2025.
- Hospitality: Macao's hotels recorded 14.56 million guests in 2025, with an average occupancy rate of 89.4% across the city. Five-star hotels, a key segment for LVS, achieved an average occupancy rate of 92.9% in 2025.
- MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conventions, and Exhibitions): MICE-driven receipts from non-gaming industries in Macao increased to 6.28 billion patacas (approximately US$780 million) in 2025.
- Luxury Retail: The value of retail sales in Macao, which includes luxury goods, decreased by 15% year-on-year to MOP17.58 billion (approximately US$2.18 billion) in the first quarter of 2025.
Singapore
- Gaming (Casino Gross Gaming Revenue): The combined gaming revenue from Singapore's two integrated resorts (Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa) reached S$7.05 billion (approximately US$5.20 billion) in 2025.
- Hospitality: The Singapore hospitality market size is expected to grow from approximately US$21.87 billion in 2025 to US$23.28 billion in 2026.
- MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conventions, and Exhibitions): The Singapore MICE market size was valued at US$3.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach US$4.8 billion in 2025.
- Luxury Retail: Luxury sales in Singapore are expected to climb to US$13.9 billion in 2025.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key initiatives and market trends:
Continued Growth and Recovery in the Macao Market, particularly in Premium Segments: Las Vegas Sands anticipates sustained growth in the Macao market, with expectations for both gaming and non-gaming revenue to increase. The company believes the Macao market will grow significantly in the years ahead. This growth is notably propelled by the premium segments, which aligns with LVS's strategic focus.
Sustained Strong Performance and Ongoing Enhancements at Marina Bay Sands in Singapore: Marina Bay Sands continues to deliver record performance, achieving its highest-ever quarterly EBITDA. Capital investment programs are underway to further enhance the property, including a significant renovation of Tower 3 scheduled for completion by the second quarter of 2025, which is expected to support future growth. These investments aim to attract high-value visitation and maintain the property's market-leading position.
Leveraging Recently Completed Capital Investment Programs and Increased Suite Capacity: LVS has undertaken substantial capital investment programs, particularly at The Londoner Macao and Marina Bay Sands, to increase suite capacity and enhance the overall customer experience. These completed or near-completion enhancements are strategically designed to attract more high-value business to their integrated resorts in both Macao and Singapore.
Strategic Market Share Gains in Macao: The company is well-positioned for continued success in Macao and expects to achieve strategic market share gains in the upcoming quarters. This is supported by its market-leading investments and diverse product offerings designed to capture high-value tourism.
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Share Repurchases
- Las Vegas Sands authorized a $2.0 billion stock repurchase program in October 2023, which was set to run until November 3, 2025.
- In October 2025, the board significantly boosted its stock repurchase program with an additional $2.0 billion, increasing the total authorization to $2.7 billion and extending the expiration date to November 3, 2027.
- The company repurchased $800 million of LVS stock in Q2 2025, and $500 million in Q4 2025. In 2024, the company utilized US$1.75 billion for common stock repurchases.
Share Issuance
- In November 2023, Las Vegas Sands announced a proposed secondary public offering of $2.0 billion of its common stock by Dr. Miriam Adelson and The Miriam Adelson Trust. The company did not receive any proceeds from this sale.
Outbound Investments
- Las Vegas Sands increased its ownership in Sands China Ltd. (SCL) through various stock purchases, including $179 million in Q2 and July 2025 (reaching 73.4% ownership) and $66 million in Q4 2025 (reaching 74.8% ownership as of December 31, 2025). In October 2024, LVS acquired $44 million of SCL stock, increasing its ownership percentage to 71.31%.
- The company completed its exit from the US market by selling The Venetian Resort Hotel Casino and the Sands Expo and Convention Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, in 2022.
Capital Expenditures
- Las Vegas Sands is undertaking a significant expansion of Marina Bay Sands in Singapore, with an estimated investment of approximately $3.0 billion for a new luxury hotel tower, expanded convention center, and shopping mall. The larger Marina Bay Sands Expansion Project is expected to be an $8 billion development, with construction anticipated to be completed by June 2030 and opening in January 2031.
- The company is investing $3.8 billion in Macau, primarily focused on non-gaming projects such as meeting spaces and entertainment facilities, following the renewal of its gaming license.
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2024 amounted to $1.58 billion. Ongoing capital investments are focused on property enhancements and renovations in both Singapore and Macau, particularly in the premium and luxury segments.
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| 03272026 | OLLI | Ollie's Bargain Outlet | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.1% | 3.1% | 0.0% |
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| 04302025 | LVS | Las Vegas Sands | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 62.1% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| 03312020 | LVS | Las Vegas Sands | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 10.0% | 43.1% | -10.7% |
| 10312018 | LVS | Las Vegas Sands | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 36.6% | 27.8% | -3.8% |
Research & Analysis
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 46.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.6 |
| Rev LTM | 9,312 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,272 |
| FCF LTM | 592 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 648 |
| CFO LTM | 1,327 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,369 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.1% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -7.6% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 32.6% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 17.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.1% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.6 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 8.2 |
| P/EBIT | 6.3 |
| P/E | 11.4 |
| P/CFO | 5.6 |
| Total Yield | 3.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| D/E | 2.0 |
| Net D/E | 1.9 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 8.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 27.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | -9.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.4% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 4.6% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -3.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -5.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -81.3% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marina Bay Sands | 6,173 | 6,387 | 6,067 | 5,326 | 5,592 |
| The Londoner Macao | 4,665 | 4,193 | 4,489 | 4,494 | 4,299 |
| Corporate and Other | 3,353 | 5,167 | 5,422 | 1,357 | 1,465 |
| The Venetian Macao | 2,806 | 2,548 | 2,135 | 2,087 | 2,446 |
| The Parisian Macao | 1,710 | 1,802 | 1,828 | 1,962 | 2,119 |
| The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Macao | 987 | 1,059 | 1,020 | 1,145 | 1,203 |
| Ferry Operations and Other | 719 | 335 | 870 | 132 | 141 |
| Sands Macao | 253 | 287 | 208 | 253 | 320 |
| Total | 20,666 | 21,778 | 22,039 | 16,756 | 17,585 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $52.81 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 35.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 12/15/2004 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -23.6% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $55.01 | $56.69 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -4.0% | -6.9% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 42.0% | 36.8% |
| Downside Capture | 1.09 | 0.64 |
| Upside Capture | 95.69 | 124.22 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 39.3% | 38.7% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.20 | 1.05 | 0.86 | 0.90 | 1.13 | 1.01 |
| Up Beta | 1.36 | 0.39 | 0.34 | 0.17 | 0.98 | 0.95 |
| Down Beta | 2.08 | 2.00 | 0.68 | 0.84 | 1.24 | 1.11 |
| Up Capture | 47% | 102% | 59% | 110% | 154% | 72% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 22 | 32 | 64 | 138 | 383 |
| Down Capture | 95% | 62% | 137% | 110% | 109% | 103% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 19 | 30 | 60 | 112 | 365 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LVS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVS | 57.1% | 37.2% | 1.28 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 25.6% | 18.9% | 1.07 | 36.7% |
| Equity (SPY) | 34.0% | 12.6% | 2.05 | 38.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 42.9% | 27.2% | 1.29 | -0.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 46.4% | 18.0% | 1.97 | -10.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 14.2% | 13.3% | 0.74 | 12.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -16.6% | 42.1% | -0.32 | 16.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LVS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVS | -1.7% | 40.8% | 0.07 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 6.8% | 23.8% | 0.25 | 46.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.7% | 17.1% | 0.58 | 46.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.2% | 17.8% | 0.97 | 3.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 14.5% | 19.1% | 0.62 | 12.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.7% | 18.8% | 0.10 | 30.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 7.0% | 56.3% | 0.34 | 17.1% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with LVS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVS | 2.9% | 38.9% | 0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.7% | 22.0% | 0.53 | 52.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 52.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.9% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 0.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.1% | 17.8% | 0.47 | 21.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 37.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.3% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 12.8% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 4/22/2026 | -8.6% | ||
| 1/28/2026 | -14.0% | -6.1% | -6.9% |
| 10/22/2025 | 12.4% | 16.1% | 25.9% |
| 7/23/2025 | 4.3% | 8.8% | 10.4% |
| 4/23/2025 | 6.5% | 6.7% | 17.4% |
| 1/29/2025 | 11.1% | 0.2% | 3.5% |
| 10/23/2024 | 2.8% | 3.7% | -1.5% |
| 7/24/2024 | -2.4% | -1.6% | 2.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 5.6% | 5.5% | 10.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -3.6% | -5.9% |
| Max Positive | 12.4% | 19.2% | 27.7% |
| Max Negative | -14.0% | -9.9% | -25.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 03/31/2026 | 04/24/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/06/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/24/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/25/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/07/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/25/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/26/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/19/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/07/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/20/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/21/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/03/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/21/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/22/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2026 Dividends | 0.3 | 0 | Same New | Actual: 0.3 for Q1 2026 | |||
Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Dividends | 0.3 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.3 for Q1 2026 | |||
| 2026 Annual Dividend | 1.2 | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.2 for 2026 | |||
| 2027 Share Repurchase Authorization | 2.00 Bil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.00 Bil for 2027 | |||
LVS Trade Sentinel
MARKET WEIGHT (Score 5-6)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
LVS is a tale of two cities: a world-class, high-margin monopoly in Singapore and a large-scale, but intensely competitive, operation in Macao that is showing signs of margin erosion. The stock currently reflects this tension, earning it a neutral 'Market Weight' rating. While the Singapore growth story is compelling, the uncertainty and decelerating EBITDA growth in the larger Macao segment cap the upside and prevent a high conviction score.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Primary: Quality Compounder / Stalwart, Secondary: Cyclical OpportunityLVS is classified primarily as a 'Quality Compounder' due to its difficult-to-replicate, licensed assets in Singapore (a duopoly) and Macao, which generate strong cash flow and high margins. It has a secondary 'Cyclical' classification because its revenue is highly dependent on the health of the Asian consumer and tourism cycles, which introduces earnings volatility.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary value driver for LVS is the superior profitability and growth of its Marina Bay Sands (MBS) property in Singapore. This segment operates in a government-enforced duopoly, delivering outsized EBITDA margins (50.3% in Q4 2025) and funding a multi-year, $8 billion expansion that will add a new hotel tower and a 15,000-seat arena, providing a visible long-term growth runway independent of the more competitive Macao market.
- Marina Bay Sands generated $806M of adjusted property EBITDA in Q4 2025, representing ~57% of company profit on only 43% of revenue.
- The MBS EBITDA margin was 50.3% in Q4 2025, dramatically higher than the 28.9% margin in the more competitive Macao segment.
- An $8 billion expansion project at MBS is fully funded and underway, with phased openings expected through 2031, providing a clear path for future growth.
- The Singapore segment's revenue share has grown from 24% pre-pandemic (FY2019) to 43% in the latest trailing-twelve-months, structurally improving the company's overall profit mix.
PRIMARY RISK
The biggest risk to the thesis is the ongoing margin compression in Macao, the company's largest segment by revenue. Increased promotional activity and operating costs are eroding profitability as competitors like Wynn and MGM aggressively target the same lucrative premium-mass customers. This trend of decelerating EBITDA growth, even as revenue recovers, signals that LVS's competitive edge in its core market is being challenged, which could lead to a sustained de-rating of the stock.
- The market reacted negatively to the Q4 2025 earnings report despite headline beats, specifically due to concerns over weakening margins and higher opex in Macao, causing a 13.6% single-day stock drop.
- Macau EBITDA margins decreased by 390 basis points in Q4 2025 due to mix-shift and higher promotional costs.
- Management acknowledged adjusting its reinvestment strategy mid-Q2 2025 after failing to capture expected volumes, confirming competitive pressure.
- Competitors like Wynn and MGM China reported strong performance in the premium-mass segment in Q4 2025, suggesting LVS is facing intense and effective competition.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Macao Operations Adjusted Property EBITDA | >$650M / quarter | This tracks the profitability of the company's largest and most contested segment. Failure to show sequential improvement towards the $700M target confirms the bear thesis on margin compression. |
| Marina Bay Sands Adjusted Property EBITDA | >$800M / quarter | This is the company's profit engine. Any sign of weakness here would severely damage the entire long thesis, as its consistent high-margin performance is what funds capital returns and justifies the quality valuation component. |
| Capital Returns (Buybacks + Dividends) | >$750M / quarter | Measures management's confidence in future cash flow and commitment to shareholders. A slowdown in capital returns could signal internal concern about the durability of the Macao recovery. |
Macao Margin Erosion vs. Singapore Monopoly Strength
BULL VIEW
Singapore's 50.3% EBITDA margins and $8B expansion provide a durable growth engine, while Macao's issues are cyclical and temporary, not a permanent loss of pricing power.
CORE TENSION
Whether the high-margin, fortress-like Singapore business can offset structural margin compression in the larger, more competitive Macao segment, which is facing intense pressure.
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The 13.6% stock crash after the Q4 2025 earnings report, despite headline beats, shows the market is voting with the bears, focusing on the Macao margin deterioration.
BEAR VIEW
Macao's 390 basis point margin decline is structural. Competitors are gaining share in the high-value premium-mass segment, permanently impairing the profitability of LVS's largest market.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Sequential change in Macao EBITDA Margin. Watch for stabilization after the 390 bps drop reported in Q4 2025. |
Late July 2026 | Q2 2026 Earnings Call Watch: Macao Adjusted Property EBITDA vs. the $700M quarterly target. Q4 2025 was $608M. |
H1 2026 | Thailand Casino Legalization Bill Watch: Official passage of the Entertainment Complex Bill by the Thai Parliament, triggering a bidding process for new licenses. |
Anytime | China Capital Control Policy Announcement Watch: Announcement of a new 'special operation' targeting Macau or a digital yuan pilot program for casinos. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Feb 02, 2026 | Macao GGR Data Release Details: Macau's Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported January GGR rose 24% YoY to $2.79B, exceeding analyst expectations and signaling strong momentum to start the year. | Stock surged +5.5% $52.45 -> $55.35 |
Oct 22, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Report Details: Reported strong results with Macao operations showing sequential revenue growth to $1.90B and hotel occupancy exceeding 95%, signaling a robust mass-market recovery. | Stock surged +12.4% $50.15 -> $56.36 |
Jan 28, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Report Details: Despite beating EPS ($0.85 vs $0.77 est.), stock plummeted due to a 390 bps decrease in Macao EBITDA margins, confirming fears of intense competitive pressure. | Stock crashed -14.0% $60.94 -> $52.43 |
Position Sizing
1% - 3%
CONSERVATIVE
Volatility is moderate but spiking, indicating rising near-term fear. The Bearish sentiment, driven by a contested moat and structural margin questions in Macao, reduces conviction. We cap exposure until the Macao thesis improves.
Diversification Alternatives
WYNN
INDUSTRYRaw data suggests Wynn is executing better and potentially gaining share in the contested Macao premium-mass segment, which is LVS's primary point of weakness.
CZR
INDUSTRYOffers pure-play exposure to the U.S. consumer and digital gaming markets, completely avoiding the geopolitical and regulatory risks associated with China and Macao.
Las Vegas Sands is a pure-play Asian gaming and tourism operator whose value is driven by its duopoly position in Singapore and its scale in the world's largest gaming market, Macao, with a strategic focus on the high-margin mass market segment.
Filter all news through the lens of Macao's mass-market recovery pace and the execution of the multi-billion dollar Singapore expansion.
Monthly Macao gross gaming revenue (GGR) exceeding forecasts, particularly in the mass and premium mass segments; faster-than-expected progress on the Marina Bay Sands Tower 3 & 4 expansion; continued market share gains in Macao vs. peers like Galaxy and Wynn.
Renewed regulatory pressure from Beijing on capital outflows or tourism to Macao; a significant slowdown in Chinese consumer spending; major construction delays or cost overruns on the Singapore expansion project; loss of market share in Macao due to increased promotional activity by competitors.
Minor monthly fluctuations in VIP gaming revenue in Macao (the thesis is mass-market driven); executive commentary on potential new jurisdictions (e.g., New York, Thailand) before a license is secured; short-term stock price movements of competitors.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the market's recognition of the earnings power of a fully recovered Macao mass market, combined with the future earnings stream from the $8 billion Marina Bay Sands expansion. Management is targeting a $700M per quarter EBITDA run-rate in Macao, a significant step-up from the $608M achieved in Q4 2025. The Singapore expansion, set for completion by 2031, will add a new luxury hotel tower and a 15,000-seat arena, significantly increasing non-gaming revenue capacity.
Macao Integrated Resorts
$7.4B TTM (57% of Total) · 29% MarginWhat It Is
The Venetian Macao, The Londoner Macao, The Parisian Macao, The Plaza Macao, Four Seasons Hotel Macao, and Sands Macao.
Who Pays & How
Leisure and business tourists from Mainland China and greater Asia pay for gaming, lodging, retail, and entertainment. The 'integrated resort' model with its vast non-gaming amenities creates a sticky ecosystem and a significant barrier to entry, as the scale is nearly impossible to replicate.
Competition
Singapore Integrated Resort
$5.6B TTM (43% of Total) · 50% MarginWhat It Is
Marina Bay Sands (MBS), an iconic integrated resort with three hotel towers, a casino, a convention center, a shopping mall, and the SkyPark.
Who Pays & How
International tourists and business travelers, particularly from China and Southeast Asia, pay for a world-renowned luxury experience. As one of only two licensed casino operators in Singapore, MBS operates in a highly constrained market, giving it significant pricing power and a durable moat.
Competition
External Quote Links
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| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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