Papa John's International (PZZA)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $40.99 | Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Papa John's International (PZZA)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $40.99Market Cap: $1.3 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, FCF Yield is 5.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -115% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 41x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3% | ||
| Key risksPZZA key risks include [1] operational inefficiencies within its supply chain and commissary system and [2] managing a brand reputation historically impacted by negative consumer sentiment. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, FCF Yield is 5.0% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -83%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -115% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 41x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3% |
| Key risksPZZA key risks include [1] operational inefficiencies within its supply chain and commissary system and [2] managing a brand reputation historically impacted by negative consumer sentiment. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PZZA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining the approximate -14.9% stock movement for Papa John's International (PZZA) from August 31, 2025, to December 18, 2025:
1. Q3 2025 Earnings Miss: On November 6, 2025, Papa John's reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, missing analyst expectations for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company posted an EPS of $0.32, falling short of the forecasted $0.41, and revenue of $508.2 million, missing the forecasted $525.26 million. This led to a pre-market stock decline of 4.73%.
2. Decline in North American Comparable Sales: The third-quarter results also showed that while global system-wide sales increased by 2% in constant currency, global comparable sales remained flat, and North American comparable sales decreased by 2.7%. This decline was attributed to a challenging consumer environment and increased competition within the quick-service restaurant sector.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PZZA Return | 36% | 59% | -37% | -5% | -44% | 4% | -25% |
| Peers Return | 29% | 29% | -15% | 21% | 7% | -3% | 76% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PZZA Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 25% | 42% | 25% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 58% | 42% | 55% | 55% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PZZA Max Drawdown | -44% | -6% | -48% | -22% | -47% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -32% | -8% | -31% | -8% | -10% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: DPZ, YUM, MCD, SBUX, CMG. See PZZA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PZZA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -48.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -55.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 523 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 158.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 916 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to SGHC, ACEL, BJRI, NATH, SEAT
In The Past
Papa John's International's stock fell -55.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -55.0% loss requires a 122.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PZZA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 6.4% | 6.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 17.1% | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 14.1% | 14.1% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Papa John's International
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 119.17 |
| Mkt Cap | 46.0 |
| Rev LTM | 9,924 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,241 |
| FCF LTM | 1,569 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,408 |
| CFO LTM | 2,060 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,853 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 3.4% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 17.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 16.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 17.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 46.0 |
| P/S | 3.7 |
| P/EBIT | 16.9 |
| P/E | 31.6 |
| P/CFO | 20.5 |
| Total Yield | 5.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -3.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 3Y Rtn | 26.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -14.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -47.4% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commissary sales | 925 | 1,168 | 1,074 | 957 | 864 |
| Company-owned restaurant sales | 761 | 708 | 778 | 701 | 652 |
| Franchise royalties and fees | 195 | 191 | 187 | 140 | 113 |
| Advertising funds revenue | 157 | ||||
| Other revenues | 98 | 327 | 324 | 295 | 268 |
| Eliminations | -292 | -295 | -279 | -278 | |
| International other revenues | 0 | 0 | |||
| Total | 2,136 | 2,102 | 2,068 | 1,813 | 1,619 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 11/6/2025 | 3.8% | -1.2% | 0.9% |
| 8/7/2025 | 8.6% | 17.3% | 20.2% |
| 5/8/2025 | 15.9% | 20.9% | 51.6% |
| 2/27/2025 | 1.4% | -3.1% | -11.3% |
| 11/7/2024 | -4.6% | -12.7% | -15.4% |
| 8/8/2024 | 1.7% | 5.6% | 11.6% |
| 5/9/2024 | -6.8% | -8.2% | -17.0% |
| 2/29/2024 | 2.5% | 1.5% | -5.1% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 11 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 3.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% |
| Median Negative | -4.1% | -6.9% | -11.3% |
| Max Positive | 15.9% | 20.9% | 51.6% |
| Max Negative | -11.6% | -16.4% | -20.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/24/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/25/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/26/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/25/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/25/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/26/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/27/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/26/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |