Tearsheet

Papa John's International (PZZA)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $42.58 | Market Cap: $1.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Papa John's International (PZZA)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $42.58
Market Cap: $1.4 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, FCF Yield is 5.0%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -115%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more.
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 41x
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, FCF Yield is 5.0%
1 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more.
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -115%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13%
4 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58%
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 41x
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

PZZA Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are the key points for why Papa John's International (PZZA) stock moved by -11% between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025: 1. Papa John's Missed Q3 2025 Earnings and Revenue Expectations.

The company reported diluted earnings per common share of $0.13 for the third quarter of 2025, significantly lower than $1.27 in the prior year's third quarter, and adjusted diluted earnings per common share of $0.32, missing the consensus estimate of $0.40. Total revenues of $508.2 million also fell short of analysts' expectations of $523.67 million.

2. North America Comparable Sales Decreased.

In the third quarter of 2025, North America comparable sales decreased by 3% from a year ago, with both domestic company-owned and North America franchised restaurants experiencing a 3% decline. This contrasted with a 7% increase in International comparable sales.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PZZA Return36%59%-37%-5%-44%7%-23%
Peers Return18%25%3%-2%8%-7%51%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PZZA Win Rate67%50%25%42%25%50% 
Peers Win Rate20%23%20%15%18%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PZZA Max Drawdown-44%-6%-48%-22%-47%-25% 
Peers Max Drawdown-26%-2%-12%-9%-10%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV. See PZZA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventPZZAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-55.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven122.4%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-48.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven95.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven34 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-55.9%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven126.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven523 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-61.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven158.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven916 days1480 days

Compare to GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV


In The Past

Papa John's International's stock fell -55.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -55.0% loss requires a 122.4% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Papa John's International (PZZA)

Better Bets than Papa John's International (PZZA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PZZA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Papa John's International

Peers to compare with:

Financials

PZZAGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NamePapa Joh.Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
Mkt Price42.87-308.6025.1824.68-34.02
Mkt Cap1.4-0.40.2--0.4
Rev LTM2,086-387282--387
Op Inc LTM108-2447--47
FCF LTM79-8134--79
FCF 3Y Avg72-5428--54
CFO LTM157-10751--107
CFO 3Y Avg149-8056--80

Growth & Margins

PZZAGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NamePapa Joh.Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
Rev Chg LTM-0.6%-6.9%-5.3%---0.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.3%-1.7%4.2%--1.7%
Rev Chg Q0.3%-10.3%-6.6%--0.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.1%-2.5%-1.8%--0.1%
Op Mgn LTM5.2%-6.2%16.6%--6.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg6.1%-8.1%19.8%--8.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.6%-1.0%-1.3%---0.6%
CFO/Rev LTM7.5%-27.7%18.2%--18.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg7.1%-21.3%19.4%--19.4%
FCF/Rev LTM3.8%-21.0%11.9%--11.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg3.4%-14.2%9.7%--9.7%

Valuation

PZZAGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NamePapa Joh.Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
Mkt Cap1.4-0.40.2--0.4
P/S0.8-1.11.2--1.1
P/EBIT16.8-61.29.3--16.8
P/E41.4-200.820.2--41.4
P/CFO10.1-3.96.5--6.5
Total Yield6.3%-0.5%5.7%--5.7%
Dividend Yield3.9%-0.0%0.7%--0.7%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.9%-17.5%6.6%--6.6%
D/E0.6-0.80.8--0.8
Net D/E0.6--0.10.7--0.6

Returns

PZZAGSTBHRICKBRCBCADVMedian
NamePapa Joh.Ga Sai T.Biglari RCI Hosp.Black Ro.Club Ver. 
1M Rtn-10.2%--13.3%4.9%1.7%--4.3%
3M Rtn-10.1%--0.4%-29.4%---10.1%
6M Rtn-7.0%-18.5%-37.8%---7.0%
12M Rtn-7.8%-37.8%-50.0%---7.8%
3Y Rtn-42.9%-112.9%-71.6%---42.9%
1M Excs Rtn-10.2%--13.2%4.9%1.7%--4.2%
3M Excs Rtn-13.8%--6.1%-35.6%---13.8%
6M Excs Rtn-21.8%-3.8%-52.5%---21.8%
12M Excs Rtn-23.6%-33.1%-65.2%---23.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-115.3%-47.2%-143.8%---115.3%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Commissary sales9251,1681,074957864
Company-owned restaurant sales761708778701652
Franchise royalties and fees195191187140113
Advertising funds revenue157    
Other revenues98327324295268
Eliminations -292-295-279-278
International other revenues 00  
Total2,1362,1022,0681,8131,619


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity4,251,664
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202551.8%
Average Daily Volume3,981,220
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.07
Basic Shares Quantity32,889,000
Short % of Basic Shares12.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251106202510-Q 9/28/2025
6302025807202510-Q 6/29/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/30/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/29/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/29/2024
6302024808202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024509202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023229202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/24/2023
6302023803202310-Q 6/25/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/26/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/25/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/25/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/26/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/27/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/26/2021