Papa John's International (PZZA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $42.58 | Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Papa John's International (PZZA)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $42.58Market Cap: $1.4 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, FCF Yield is 5.0% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -115% | Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. | Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 41x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.3%, Dividend Yield is 3.9%, FCF Yield is 5.0% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Direct-to-Consumer Brands, Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -80%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -115% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 13% |
| Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 58% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 41x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
PZZA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Papa John's International (PZZA) stock moved by -11% between approximately August 31, 2025, and December 4, 2025:
1. Papa John's Missed Q3 2025 Earnings and Revenue Expectations.
The company reported diluted earnings per common share of $0.13 for the third quarter of 2025, significantly lower than $1.27 in the prior year's third quarter, and adjusted diluted earnings per common share of $0.32, missing the consensus estimate of $0.40. Total revenues of $508.2 million also fell short of analysts' expectations of $523.67 million.
2. North America Comparable Sales Decreased.
In the third quarter of 2025, North America comparable sales decreased by 3% from a year ago, with both domestic company-owned and North America franchised restaurants experiencing a 3% decline. This contrasted with a 7% increase in International comparable sales.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PZZA Return | 36% | 59% | -37% | -5% | -44% | 7% | -23% |
| Peers Return | 18% | 25% | 3% | -2% | 8% | -7% | 51% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PZZA Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 25% | 42% | 25% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 20% | 23% | 20% | 15% | 18% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PZZA Max Drawdown | -44% | -6% | -48% | -22% | -47% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -26% | -2% | -12% | -9% | -10% | -16% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV. See PZZA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PZZA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -55.0% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 122.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -48.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 95.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 34 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -55.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 523 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -61.4% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 158.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 916 days | 1480 days |
Compare to GST, BH, RICK, BRCB, CADV
In The Past
Papa John's International's stock fell -55.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -55.0% loss requires a 122.4% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PZZA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Papa John's International
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 34.02 |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| Rev LTM | 387 |
| Op Inc LTM | 47 |
| FCF LTM | 79 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 54 |
| CFO LTM | 107 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 80 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | -0.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 1.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 0.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 6.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 8.1% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.6% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 11.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 0.4 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/EBIT | 16.8 |
| P/E | 41.4 |
| P/CFO | 6.5 |
| Total Yield | 5.7% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| D/E | 0.8 |
| Net D/E | 0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -4.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -10.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -7.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -7.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | -42.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -4.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -21.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -23.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -115.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commissary sales | 925 | 1,168 | 1,074 | 957 | 864 |
| Company-owned restaurant sales | 761 | 708 | 778 | 701 | 652 |
| Franchise royalties and fees | 195 | 191 | 187 | 140 | 113 |
| Advertising funds revenue | 157 | ||||
| Other revenues | 98 | 327 | 324 | 295 | 268 |
| Eliminations | -292 | -295 | -279 | -278 | |
| International other revenues | 0 | 0 | |||
| Total | 2,136 | 2,102 | 2,068 | 1,813 | 1,619 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11062025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5082025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5092024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2292024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/24/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/25/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/26/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/25/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/25/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/26/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/27/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/26/2021 |
External Quote Links
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