Tearsheet

Cavco Industries (CVCO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $588.69 | Market Cap: $4.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Homebuilding

Cavco Industries (CVCO)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $588.69
Market Cap: $4.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Homebuilding

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.6%, Dist 3Y High is -3.6%
 
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
  
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more.
  
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%
1 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
2 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Sustainable Resource Management, and Sustainable & Green Buildings. Themes include Green Building Materials, Energy Efficient Building Materials, Show more.
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.6%, Dist 3Y High is -3.6%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

CVCO Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points highlighting factors that have influenced Cavco Industries (CVCO) stock performance around the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 4, 2025, based on the most recent information available: **1. Q2 2026 Earnings Beat.** Cavco (CVCO) reported strong Q2 2026 earnings on October 30, 2025 (or October 31, 2025), with earnings per share (EPS) of $6.55, which exceeded analysts' consensus estimates of $6.30 (or $6.15 by some accounts). This performance represented an earnings surprise of +3.97% (or +6.50%), marking the fourth consecutive quarter the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates.

**2. Robust Revenue Growth and Market Outperformance.** For the quarter ending September 2025, Cavco posted revenues of $556.53 million, also surpassing Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.82%. The company has shown a significant year-long return of 28.67%, substantially outperforming the S&P 500's return of 16.64% over the same period, indicating strong market leadership.

**3. Growth in Factory-Built Housing Volume and Improved Margins.** The company's strong financial results, including an increase in factory-built housing volume, have been a significant driver. For example, in its Q3 FY2025 report (discussed in April 2025, covering period ending December 2024), net revenue increased by 16.8% year-over-year, and diluted EPS reached approximately $6.96, primarily due to higher factory-built housing volume (up 21.6% in homes sold) and improved financial services results. Consolidated gross margin also saw an improvement to 24.9%.

**4. Strategic Market Expansion and Demand for Affordable Housing.** Cavco Industries is strategically expanding its national presence through increased manufacturing capacity, diverse brand offerings, and well-placed retail networks, which allows it to meet varying regional housing demands efficiently. Elevated demand for manufactured homes, coupled with favorable policy momentum and strategic acquisitions, are noted as key drivers for revenue growth and expanded market reach.

**5. Positive Analyst Outlook and Future Earnings Forecasts.** Analysts maintain a positive outlook on Cavco Industries, with a consensus "Buy" rating. Earnings are forecast to grow by 8.08% per year (with some estimates suggesting a 13.18% increase for the coming year), and technical indicators signal a bullish trend, underscoring the company's growth potential.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
CVCO Return-10%81%-29%53%29%31%200%
Peers Return43%56%-27%112%-4%4%247%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
CVCO Win Rate50%83%33%58%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate72%65%43%62%53%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
CVCO Max Drawdown-45%-1%-42%0%-12%-11% 
Peers Max Drawdown-58%-6%-45%0%-12%-19% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MHO, GRBK, TPH, CCS, DHI. See CVCO Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventCVCOS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-43.2%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven76.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven546 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-53.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven115.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven367 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-55.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven124.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven873 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-52.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven109.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven409 days1480 days

Compare to MHO, GRBK, TPH, CCS, DHI


In The Past

Cavco Industries's stock fell -43.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/7/2021. A -43.2% loss requires a 76.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Cavco Industries (CVCO)

Better Bets than Cavco Industries (CVCO)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to CVCO. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Cavco Industries

Peers to compare with:

Financials

CVCOMHOGRBKTPHCCSDHIMedian
NameCavco In.M/I HomesGreen Br.Tri Poin.Century .D.R. Hor. 
Mkt Price586.69137.4567.3234.3866.14165.00102.38
Mkt Cap4.63.62.93.02.050.23.3
Rev LTM2,1444,4762,1133,7524,15834,5753,955
Op Inc LTM2256034393903014,892415
FCF LTM1802431582711842,785213
FCF 3Y Avg187350139459522,707269
CFO LTM2102501623012422,911246
CFO 3Y Avg2103591444861642,856284

Growth & Margins

CVCOMHOGRBKTPHCCSDHIMedian
NameCavco In.M/I HomesGreen Br.Tri Poin.Century .D.R. Hor. 
Rev Chg LTM15.8%4.8%6.6%-16.6%-4.0%-7.3%0.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg1.2%4.2%6.1%-1.6%-1.7%2.9%2.1%
Rev Chg Q9.7%-1.0%-4.7%-25.3%-13.8%-7.4%-6.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.3%-0.2%-1.1%-7.2%-3.6%-2.1%-1.6%
Op Mgn LTM10.5%13.5%20.8%10.4%7.2%14.2%12.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg10.5%14.6%20.5%12.2%9.0%16.3%13.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.4%-0.8%-0.5%-1.1%-1.0%-1.0%-0.9%
CFO/Rev LTM9.8%5.6%7.7%8.0%5.8%8.4%7.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg10.7%8.3%7.7%12.0%4.4%8.1%8.2%
FCF/Rev LTM8.4%5.4%7.5%7.2%4.4%8.1%7.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.5%8.1%7.4%11.3%1.7%7.7%7.9%

Valuation

CVCOMHOGRBKTPHCCSDHIMedian
NameCavco In.M/I HomesGreen Br.Tri Poin.Century .D.R. Hor. 
Mkt Cap4.63.62.93.02.050.23.3
P/S2.10.91.50.80.51.11.0
P/EBIT18.76.47.37.66.28.07.4
P/E23.38.19.59.58.89.99.5
P/CFO21.815.319.89.87.813.514.4
Total Yield4.3%12.3%10.5%10.5%12.4%11.3%10.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.9%1.2%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg6.1%12.7%6.5%15.1%4.7%6.5%6.5%
D/E0.00.30.10.40.90.20.2
Net D/E-0.10.10.10.20.80.10.1

Returns

CVCOMHOGRBKTPHCCSDHIMedian
NameCavco In.M/I HomesGreen Br.Tri Poin.Century .D.R. Hor. 
1M Rtn9.6%9.1%7.5%10.2%13.7%14.1%9.9%
3M Rtn9.9%-7.3%-2.9%-2.6%1.9%-3.9%-2.7%
6M Rtn37.5%26.5%13.0%12.9%24.7%34.3%25.6%
12M Rtn14.6%-18.2%-6.0%-20.6%-25.4%0.0%-12.1%
3Y Rtn144.5%201.4%172.4%83.3%35.0%96.8%120.6%
1M Excs Rtn9.6%9.1%7.6%10.3%13.8%14.1%9.9%
3M Excs Rtn0.3%-16.0%-11.9%-10.7%-8.1%-11.7%-11.2%
6M Excs Rtn22.8%11.8%-1.7%-1.8%10.0%19.6%10.9%
12M Excs Rtn0.5%-30.3%-19.3%-34.6%-39.0%-14.6%-24.8%
3Y Excs Rtn96.3%144.5%108.5%19.3%-25.3%31.7%64.0%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity353,446
Short Interest: % Change Since 10312025-15.1%
Average Daily Volume112,743
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.13
Basic Shares Quantity7,909,326
Short % of Basic Shares4.5%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251031202510-Q 9/27/2025
6302025804202510-Q 6/28/2025
3312025523202510-K 3/29/2025
12312024131202510-Q 12/28/2024
93020241101202410-Q 9/28/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/29/2024
3312024524202410-K 3/30/2024
12312023202202410-Q 12/30/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023804202310-Q 7/1/2023
3312023519202310-K 4/1/2023
12312022203202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 10/1/2022
6302022805202210-Q 7/2/2022
3312022531202210-K 4/2/2022
12312021207202210-Q 1/1/2022

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0KERLEY RICHARD A 11112025Sell568.99500284,4953,794,594Form