Yum Brands (YUM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $146.115 | Market Cap: $40.6 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Yum Brands (YUM)
Market Price (12/4/2025): $146.115Market Cap: $40.6 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
YUM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are key points that could have contributed to Yum Brands' stock movement in the specified period:
1. Positive analyst sentiment and increased price targets. TD Cowen upgraded Yum! Brands to Buy with a price target of $173.00, and UBS reiterated its Buy rating with a $180.00 price target. Piper Sandler and Bernstein also raised their price targets for the company.
2. Strategic review, including the potential sale of Pizza Hut. Analysts cited the potential sale of Pizza Hut as a catalyst for enhanced growth and part of a broader portfolio optimization strategy.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| YUM Return | 10% | 30% | -6% | 4% | 5% | 12% | 64% |
| Peers Return | 22% | 21% | -8% | 18% | 7% | -18% | 42% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| YUM Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 33% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 55% | 43% | 55% | 48% | 40% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| YUM Max Drawdown | -44% | -7% | -23% | -8% | -3% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -49% | -7% | -29% | -6% | -15% | -25% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCD, SBUX, CMG, DRI, WEN. See YUM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | YUM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -24.2% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 31.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 195 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -47.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 88.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -17.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 542 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -46.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 85.8% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 510 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MCD, SBUX, CMG, DRI, WEN
In The Past
Yum Brands's stock fell -24.2% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -24.2% loss requires a 31.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to YUM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 6.8% | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.6% | -2.6% | -2.6% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.7% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Yum Brands
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
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Returns
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Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) Division | 2,830 | 2,834 | 2,793 | 2,272 | 2,491 |
| Taco Bell Division | 2,641 | 2,437 | 2,238 | 2,031 | 2,079 |
| Pizza Hut Division | 1,019 | 1,004 | 1,028 | 1,002 | 1,027 |
| Habit Burger & Grill Division | 586 | 567 | 525 | 347 | |
| Total | 7,076 | 6,842 | 6,584 | 5,652 | 5,597 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) Division | 1,304 | 1,198 | 1,230 | 922 | 1,052 |
| Taco Bell Division | 944 | 850 | 758 | 696 | 683 |
| Pizza Hut Division | 391 | 387 | 387 | 335 | 369 |
| Unallocated Refranchising gain (loss) | 29 | 27 | 35 | 34 | 37 |
| Unallocated Franchise and property expenses | -1 | -6 | 1 | -4 | -14 |
| Unallocated Other income (expense) | -9 | 52 | -14 | -146 | -9 |
| Habit Burger & Grill Division | -14 | -24 | 2 | -22 | |
| Corporate and unallocated General and administrative (G&A) expenses | -326 | -297 | -260 | -312 | -188 |
| Total | 2,318 | 2,187 | 2,139 | 1,503 | 1,930 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) Division | 2,281 | 2,227 | 2,313 | 2,011 | 2,042 |
| Taco Bell Division | 1,544 | 1,483 | 1,397 | 1,387 | 1,330 |
| Corporate and Unallocated | 962 | 757 | 820 | 1,113 | 1,058 |
| Pizza Hut Division | 814 | 788 | 850 | 804 | 801 |
| Habit Burger & Grill Division | 630 | 591 | 586 | 537 | |
| Total | 6,231 | 5,846 | 5,966 | 5,852 | 5,231 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8072025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2192025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8082024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8072023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2272023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8082022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5102022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2232022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |