Tearsheet

Domino's Pizza (DPZ)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $432.09 | Market Cap: $14.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants

Domino's Pizza (DPZ)


Market Price (12/4/2025): $432.09
Market Cap: $14.7 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), Show more.
 
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

DPZ Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Challenging Macroeconomic Conditions Impacting Q3 Performance and Q4 Outlook.

Domino's Pizza reported that its third-quarter 2025 financial results continued to be affected by a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. The company's CFO, Sandeep Reddy, highlighted this during the earnings call, and management also noted a widespread slowdown across the restaurant industry in the fourth quarter of 2025.

2. Revised Downward Forecasts for Key Metrics in Late 2025.

Analysts at TD Cowen adjusted their 2025 U.S. same-store sales (SSS) forecast for Domino's Pizza downward from 3.5% to 3%. They also decreased their earnings per share (EPS) estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025 from $5.42 to $5.23, reflecting a more cautious outlook.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
DPZ Return32%48%-38%21%3%2%55%
Peers Return18%24%-3%31%4%5%103%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
DPZ Win Rate58%67%42%50%58%40% 
Peers Win Rate63%60%42%62%50%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
DPZ Max Drawdown-8%-14%-46%-16%-3%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-48%-7%-29%-5%-11%-11% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MCD, YUM, QSR, DRI, WING. See DPZ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/3/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventDPZS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-48.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven94.7%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-23.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven30.3%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven37 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-26.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven35.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven177 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-86.7%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven649.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven897 days1480 days

Compare to MCD, YUM, QSR, DRI, WING


In The Past

Domino's Pizza's stock fell -48.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -48.6% loss requires a 94.7% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

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About Domino's Pizza (DPZ)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to DPZ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
DPZ_3312020_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%03312020DPZDomino's PizzaQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
31.2%14.5%0.0%
DPZ_7312017_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%07312017DPZDomino's PizzaQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
16.0%42.2%-9.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
BBWI_11302025_Dip_Buyer_1M_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE11302025BBWIBath & Body WorksDip BuyDB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider Buying
Buying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap
6.8%6.8%0.0%
HRB_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025HRBH&R BlockDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%0.0%
LRN_11262025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11262025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-2.6%-2.6%-2.6%
ABNB_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025ABNBAirbnbDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
3.7%3.7%0.0%
MTN_11212025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield11212025MTNVail ResortsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
1.3%1.3%-1.6%
DPZ_3312020_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%03312020DPZDomino's PizzaQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
31.2%14.5%0.0%
DPZ_7312017_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%07312017DPZDomino's PizzaQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
16.0%42.2%-9.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Domino's Pizza

Peers to compare with:

Financials

DPZMCDYUMQSRDRIWINGMedian
NameDomino's.McDonald.Yum Bran.Restaura.Darden R.Wingstop  
Mkt Price-------
Mkt Cap-------
Rev LTM-------
Op Inc LTM-------
FCF LTM-------
FCF 3Y Avg-------
CFO LTM-------
CFO 3Y Avg-------

Growth & Margins

DPZMCDYUMQSRDRIWINGMedian
NameDomino's.McDonald.Yum Bran.Restaura.Darden R.Wingstop  
Rev Chg LTM-------
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-------
Rev Chg Q-------
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-------
Op Mgn LTM-------
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-------
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-------
CFO/Rev LTM-------
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-------
FCF/Rev LTM-------
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-------

Valuation

DPZMCDYUMQSRDRIWINGMedian
NameDomino's.McDonald.Yum Bran.Restaura.Darden R.Wingstop  
Mkt Cap-------
P/S-------
P/EBIT-------
P/E-------
P/CFO-------
Total Yield-------
Dividend Yield-------
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-------
D/E-------
Net D/E-------

Returns

DPZMCDYUMQSRDRIWINGMedian
NameDomino's.McDonald.Yum Bran.Restaura.Darden R.Wingstop  
1M Rtn-------
3M Rtn-------
6M Rtn-------
12M Rtn-------
3Y Rtn-------
1M Excs Rtn-------
3M Excs Rtn-------
6M Excs Rtn-------
12M Excs Rtn-------
3Y Excs Rtn-------

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Supply chain2,7152,8982,7002,5532,232
Unites States (U.S) Stores1,4541,4871,4981,4511,273
International franchise310295298250241
General and administrative - other 0  0
Intersegment Revenues -143-139-136-127
Total4,4794,5374,3574,1173,619


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Unites States (U.S) Stores521439455435362
International franchise260236242198187
Supply chain245209230238200
Refranchising loss-021   
Loss on sale/disposal of assets-1-2-1-3-2
Non-cash equity-based compensation expense-38-29-29-24-20
Depreciation and amortization-81-80-73-65-60
General and administrative - other-87-26-43-53-37
Recapitalization-related expenses 0-1 -1
Total820768780726629


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Unallocated773663731698662
Supply chain632614558520409
Unites States (U.S) Stores232288341308252
International franchise3837414123
International supply chain    36
Total1,6751,6021,6721,5671,382


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity2,462,980
Short Interest: % Change Since 103120252.7%
Average Daily Volume521,699
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.72
Basic Shares Quantity33,919,706
Short % of Basic Shares7.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251014202510-Q 9/7/2025
6302025721202510-Q 6/15/2025
3312025428202510-Q 3/23/2025
12312024224202510-K 12/29/2024
93020241010202410-Q 9/8/2024
6302024718202410-Q 6/16/2024
3312024429202410-Q 3/24/2024
12312023226202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231012202310-Q 9/10/2023
6302023724202310-Q 6/18/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/26/2023
12312022223202310-K 1/1/2023
93020221013202210-Q 9/11/2022
6302022721202210-Q 6/19/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/27/2022
12312021301202210-K 1/2/2022