Domino's Pizza (DPZ)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $438.4 | Market Cap: $14.9 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Domino's Pizza (DPZ)
Market Price (12/18/2025): $438.4Market Cap: $14.9 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -30%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -42% | Key risksDPZ key risks include [1] rising operating costs causing a slowdown in new store openings by its franchisees, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 5.6% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 27% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -30%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -42% |
| Key risksDPZ key risks include [1] rising operating costs causing a slowdown in new store openings by its franchisees, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
DPZ Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Decline in Q3 2025 Net Income and Diluted EPS. Domino's Pizza reported a 5.2% decline in net income and a 2.6% decrease in diluted earnings per share (EPS) to $4.08 for the third quarter of 2025, despite revenue growth. This decline in profitability metrics could negatively influence investor sentiment.
2. Signals of Slowing Sales Momentum and Weak Consumer Sentiment. Around early November 2025, reports indicated that Domino's Pizza reached a new 52-week low, signaling slowing sales momentum and weaker consumer sentiment looking into the fourth quarter of 2025. This raised concerns about future performance despite a strong third-quarter earnings report.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DPZ Return | 32% | 48% | -38% | 21% | 3% | 5% | 59% |
| Peers Return | � | 25% | -20% | 28% | 3% | 15% | � |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DPZ Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | � | 55% | 37% | 53% | 45% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DPZ Max Drawdown | -8% | -14% | -46% | -16% | -3% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | � | -9% | -36% | -9% | -17% | -9% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: YUM, PZZA, MCD, QSR, DASH. See DPZ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/17/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DPZ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -23.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 177 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -86.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 649.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 897 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to MCD, YUM, QSR, DRI, WING
In The Past
Domino's Pizza's stock fell -48.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -48.6% loss requires a 94.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to DPZ. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 03312020 | DPZ | Domino's Pizza | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 31.2% | 14.5% | 0.0% |
| 07312017 | DPZ | Domino's Pizza | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 16.0% | 42.2% | -9.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BBWI | Bath & Body Works | Dip Buy | DB | Insider Buys | Low D/EDip Buy with Strong Insider BuyingBuying dips for companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 12.8% | 12.8% | 0.0% |
| 11262025 | HRB | H&R Block | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.4% | 5.4% | -0.1% |
| 11262025 | LRN | Stride | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 3.2% | 3.2% | -4.4% |
| 11212025 | ABNB | Airbnb | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.5% | 15.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | MTN | Vail Resorts | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.3% | 15.3% | -1.6% |
| 03312020 | DPZ | Domino's Pizza | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 31.2% | 14.5% | 0.0% |
| 07312017 | DPZ | Domino's Pizza | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 16.0% | 42.2% | -9.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Domino's Pizza
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 187.22 |
| Mkt Cap | 32.8 |
| Rev LTM | 8,584 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,638 |
| FCF LTM | 1,459 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,326 |
| CFO LTM | 1,747 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,558 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.8% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.3% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.6% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 18.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.3% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 15.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 32.8 |
| P/S | 4.1 |
| P/EBIT | 16.9 |
| P/E | 27.5 |
| P/CFO | 20.4 |
| Total Yield | 5.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 4.5% |
| 3M Rtn | 2.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 4.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 9.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 26.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 3.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -8.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -2.8% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -44.1% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supply chain | 2,715 | 2,898 | 2,700 | 2,553 | 2,232 |
| Unites States (U.S) Stores | 1,454 | 1,487 | 1,498 | 1,451 | 1,273 |
| International franchise | 310 | 295 | 298 | 250 | 241 |
| General and administrative - other | 0 | 0 | |||
| Intersegment Revenues | -143 | -139 | -136 | -127 | |
| Total | 4,479 | 4,537 | 4,357 | 4,117 | 3,619 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unites States (U.S) Stores | 521 | 439 | 455 | 435 | 362 |
| International franchise | 260 | 236 | 242 | 198 | 187 |
| Supply chain | 245 | 209 | 230 | 238 | 200 |
| Refranchising loss | -0 | 21 | |||
| Loss on sale/disposal of assets | -1 | -2 | -1 | -3 | -2 |
| Non-cash equity-based compensation expense | -38 | -29 | -29 | -24 | -20 |
| Depreciation and amortization | -81 | -80 | -73 | -65 | -60 |
| General and administrative - other | -87 | -26 | -43 | -53 | -37 |
| Recapitalization-related expenses | 0 | -1 | -1 | ||
| Total | 820 | 768 | 780 | 726 | 629 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unallocated | 773 | 663 | 731 | 698 | 662 |
| Supply chain | 632 | 614 | 558 | 520 | 409 |
| Unites States (U.S) Stores | 232 | 288 | 341 | 308 | 252 |
| International franchise | 38 | 37 | 41 | 41 | 23 |
| International supply chain | 36 | ||||
| Total | 1,675 | 1,602 | 1,672 | 1,567 | 1,382 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/14/2025 | 3.9% | 3.6% | 0.2% |
| 7/21/2025 | -0.8% | 4.2% | -4.5% |
| 2/24/2025 | -1.5% | 5.9% | 1.2% |
| 10/10/2024 | -1.1% | 3.7% | 8.5% |
| 7/18/2024 | -13.6% | -10.3% | -6.1% |
| 2/26/2024 | 5.8% | 3.1% | 7.6% |
| 10/12/2023 | -1.1% | -2.5% | 4.4% |
| 7/24/2023 | 0.1% | 4.0% | -1.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.4% |
| Median Negative | -1.5% | -6.5% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 25.6% | 23.4% | 18.6% |
| Max Negative | -13.6% | -13.4% | -9.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10142025 | 10-Q 9/7/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7212025 | 10-Q 6/15/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4282025 | 10-Q 3/23/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2242025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10102024 | 10-Q 9/8/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7182024 | 10-Q 6/16/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4292024 | 10-Q 3/24/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2262024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10122023 | 10-Q 9/10/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7242023 | 10-Q 6/18/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/26/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 1/1/2023 |
| 9302022 | 10132022 | 10-Q 9/11/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7212022 | 10-Q 6/19/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/27/2022 |
| 12312021 | 3012022 | 10-K 1/2/2022 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |