Domino's Pizza (DPZ)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $399.95 | Market Cap: $13.5 BilSector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Restaurants
Domino's Pizza (DPZ)
Market Price (3/14/2026): $399.95Market Cap: $13.5 BilSector: Consumer DiscretionaryIndustry: Restaurants
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -35% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.2% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Last-Mile Delivery, Direct-to-Consumer Brands (Staples), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -39%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -35% |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Domino's Pizza reported Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2025 diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.35, which missed the consensus analyst estimate of $5.38 by $0.03. Although quarterly revenue of $1.54 billion exceeded the consensus estimate of $1.52 billion, the slight EPS miss likely contributed to negative investor sentiment during the period.
2. Several analyst firms issued downgrades or lowered price targets for DPZ, reflecting a more cautious outlook for the company and the broader pizza segment. Morgan Stanley downgraded Domino's stock to "Equalweight" due to concerns about the overall pizza segment and the company's future growth trajectory. Additionally, Guggenheim lowered its price target from $450 to $440, a 2.22% reduction, on February 25, 2026, while Stifel adjusted its price target downward to $485.00.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -3.4% change in DPZ stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -6.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 415.84 | 401.62 | -3.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,848 | 4,940 | 1.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.2% | 12.2% | 0.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 23.9 | 22.5 | -6.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 34 | 34 | 0.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -3.4% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DPZ | -3.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | -3.1% | 10.8% |
| Sector (XLY) | -6.2% | 9.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.2% change in DPZ stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 452.41 | 401.62 | -11.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,781 | 4,940 | 3.3% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.5% | 12.2% | -2.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.9 | 22.5 | -13.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 34 | 34 | 1.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.2% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DPZ | -11.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.0% | 6.7% |
| Sector (XLY) | -4.2% | 14.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -16.3% change in DPZ stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 479.60 | 401.62 | -16.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,706 | 4,940 | 5.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 12.4% | 12.2% | -1.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.2 | 22.5 | -20.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 34 | 34 | 2.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -16.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DPZ | -16.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 12.4% | 35.4% |
| Sector (XLY) | 3.4% | 36.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 43.3% change in DPZ stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026 was primarily driven by a 22.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3132026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 280.19 | 401.62 | 43.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 4,537 | 4,940 | 8.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 10.0% | 12.2% | 22.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.9 | 22.5 | 2.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 35 | 34 | 4.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 43.3% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/13/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| DPZ | 43.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 73.4% | 33.3% |
| Sector (XLY) | 56.0% | 32.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| DPZ Return | 48% | -38% | 21% | 3% | 1% | -6% | 9% |
| Peers Return | 25% | -20% | 28% | 3% | 13% | -1% | 48% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -1% | 80% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| DPZ Win Rate | 67% | 42% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 37% | 53% | 45% | 53% | 47% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| DPZ Max Drawdown | -14% | -46% | -16% | -3% | -4% | -10% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -9% | -36% | -9% | -17% | -9% | -11% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -2% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: YUM, PZZA, MCD, QSR, DASH. See DPZ Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/13/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | DPZ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -48.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 94.7% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -23.3% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.3% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 37 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -26.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 177 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -86.7% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 649.5% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 897 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to YUM, PZZA, MCD, QSR, DASH
In The Past
Domino's Pizza's stock fell -48.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -48.6% loss requires a 94.7% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Domino's Pizza (DPZ)
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Pizzas: The primary product, offered under the Domino's brand name.
- Oven-baked Sandwiches: A range of sandwiches prepared in the oven.
- Pasta: Various pasta dishes available on the menu.
- Chicken Products: Includes boneless chicken and chicken wings.
- Bread and Dips: Side items such as breadsticks and accompanying dips.
- Desserts: Sweet items like cookies or brownies.
- Soft Drinks: Beverages offered to complement meals.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Domino's Pizza (DPZ) primarily sells to its network of independent franchisees. These franchisees are individual businesses (other companies) that operate Domino's stores under licensing agreements. Domino's corporate entity provides these franchisees with franchise rights and sells them ingredients, supplies, and equipment through its supply chain segment. Since these franchisees are typically independent, privately-held businesses, specific names and public symbols for these customer companies cannot be provided.
Domino's Pizza also directly sells its food products, such as pizzas, sandwiches, and desserts, to individual consumers through its company-owned stores, which represent a portion of its total store count.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
- Proliferation of third-party food delivery aggregators (e.g., DoorDash, Uber Eats, Grubhub) that enable a wide array of restaurants to offer convenient delivery, thus diluting Domino's historical competitive advantage in proprietary delivery infrastructure and expanding competition significantly beyond traditional pizza chains.
- Emergence and growth of ghost kitchens and virtual restaurant brands. This business model allows new entrants to compete in the delivery food market, including pizza, with lower overhead costs and greater agility by solely leveraging third-party delivery platforms, potentially introducing more specialized or cost-effective pizza options that challenge Domino's established market position.
AI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
nullAI Analysis | Feedback
nullLatest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to DPZ.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02272026 | MBLY | Mobileye Global | Dip Buy | DB | Cash/EquityDip Buyer with High Net Cash % EquityBuying dips for companies with significant net cash as a % of market cap along with meaningful cash flow generation | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | SAH | Sonic Automotive | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -5.9% | -5.9% | -6.1% |
| 02132026 | MAT | Mattel | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| 02132026 | SONO | Sonos | Insider | Insider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.7% | -0.7% | -4.6% |
| 02062026 | DECK | Deckers Outdoor | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.6% | 1.6% | -0.8% |
| 03312020 | DPZ | Domino's Pizza | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 31.2% | 14.5% | 0.0% |
| 07312017 | DPZ | Domino's Pizza | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 16.0% | 42.2% | -9.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 160.88 |
| Mkt Cap | 34.5 |
| Rev LTM | 8,824 |
| Op Inc LTM | 1,721 |
| FCF LTM | 1,544 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,390 |
| CFO LTM | 1,862 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,640 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.9% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 22.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 14.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 15.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 34.5 |
| P/S | 3.9 |
| P/EBIT | 15.7 |
| P/E | 30.0 |
| P/CFO | 19.6 |
| Total Yield | 6.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| D/E | 0.3 |
| Net D/E | 0.3 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -1.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 32.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 4.6% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -21.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -36.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supply chain | 2,846 | 2,715 | 2,898 | 2,700 | 2,553 |
| Unites States (U.S) Stores | 1,542 | 1,454 | 1,487 | 1,498 | 1,451 |
| International franchise | 319 | 310 | 295 | 298 | 250 |
| General and administrative - other | 0 | ||||
| Intersegment Revenues | -143 | -139 | -136 | ||
| Total | 4,706 | 4,479 | 4,537 | 4,357 | 4,117 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unites States (U.S) Stores | 565 | 521 | 439 | 455 | 435 |
| Supply chain | 281 | 245 | 209 | 230 | 238 |
| International franchise | 261 | 260 | 236 | 242 | 198 |
| Refranchising gain (loss) | -0 | -0 | 21 | ||
| Loss on sale/disposal of assets | -2 | -1 | -2 | -1 | -3 |
| Non-cash equity-based compensation expense | -43 | -38 | -29 | -29 | -24 |
| Depreciation and amortization | -88 | -81 | -80 | -73 | -65 |
| General and administrative - other | -95 | -87 | -26 | -43 | -53 |
| Recapitalization-related expenses | 0 | -1 | |||
| Total | 879 | 820 | 768 | 780 | 726 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $401.62 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 13.5 | |
| First Trading Date | 07/13/2004 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -17.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $399.81 | $425.71 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | 0.5% | -5.7% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 25.8% | 25.3% |
| Downside Capture | 63.28 | 53.28 |
| Upside Capture | 34.11 | 38.14 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 11.3% | 33.9% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.19 | 0.61 | 0.42 | 0.18 | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| Up Beta | 0.54 | -0.06 | -0.06 | 0.30 | 0.56 | 0.51 |
| Down Beta | 0.11 | 0.51 | 0.45 | -0.03 | 0.42 | 0.59 |
| Up Capture | 8% | 64% | 39% | 3% | 26% | 39% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 18 | 28 | 51 | 117 | 375 |
| Down Capture | 17% | 104% | 68% | 48% | 73% | 88% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 73 | 134 | 377 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DPZ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPZ | -6.5% | 25.3% | -0.31 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 13.0% | 23.7% | 0.46 | 34.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 19.6% | 18.9% | 0.81 | 33.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 71.9% | 26.3% | 2.05 | 1.7% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.3% | 17.3% | 0.89 | 13.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.2% | 16.3% | 0.19 | 42.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -15.0% | 44.2% | -0.24 | 12.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DPZ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPZ | 5.2% | 29.2% | 0.20 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 8.0% | 23.7% | 0.30 | 38.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.61 | 38.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 24.1% | 17.3% | 1.14 | 6.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 7.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 33.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.4% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 13.2% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with DPZ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPZ | 13.0% | 29.8% | 0.47 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLY) | 12.4% | 21.9% | 0.52 | 37.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.5% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 35.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.77 | 6.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.6% | 17.6% | 0.40 | 8.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 26.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.5% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 8.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/14/2025 | 3.9% | 3.6% | 0.2% |
| 7/21/2025 | -0.8% | 4.2% | -4.5% |
| 2/24/2025 | -1.5% | 5.9% | 1.2% |
| 10/10/2024 | -1.1% | 3.7% | 8.5% |
| 7/18/2024 | -13.6% | -10.3% | -6.1% |
| 2/26/2024 | 5.8% | 3.1% | 7.6% |
| 10/12/2023 | -1.1% | -2.5% | 4.4% |
| 7/24/2023 | 0.1% | 4.0% | -1.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 8 | 10 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.4% |
| Median Negative | -1.5% | -6.5% | -4.5% |
| Max Positive | 14.6% | 11.5% | 18.6% |
| Max Negative | -13.6% | -13.4% | -9.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/23/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/14/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/21/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/24/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/10/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/18/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 04/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/26/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/12/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/24/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 04/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/13/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/21/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 04/28/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garcia, Kelly E | EVP, Chief Tech & Data Ofcr | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 434.06 | 4,870 | 2,113,888 | 2,927,337 | Form |
| 2 | Goldman, James A | James Alan Goldman Revocable Trust | Sell | 8202025 | 451.49 | 1,000 | 451,494 | 1,527,855 | Form | |
| 3 | Goldman, James A | Direct | Sell | 5022025 | 484.79 | 385 | 186,645 | 190,038 | Form | |
| 4 | Ballard, Andy | Direct | Sell | 5022025 | 483.42 | 413 | 199,651 | 1,206,326 | Form | |
| 5 | Sandeep, Reddy | EVP, Chief Financial Officer | Direct | Sell | 4042025 | 462.18 | 399 | 184,410 | 4,046,848 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.